WHERE TWO rivers meet is a good spot for a city. For 600 years a sizeable one existed where the Missouri joins the Mississippi. By 1100, at the city’s peak, 20,000 residents may have lived around it, as many as did in London. Today archaeologists call the place Cahokia, after a native American group. These pre-Columbians gave up the city two centuries after it peaked. But you can still explore 80 grass-covered mounds where Cahokia stood. The disappearance of the Midwest’s first great city offers two lessons.
凡兩河交匯處，皆為孕育城市的沃土。在密蘇裡河匯入密西西比河之外，就有一座大城市，矗立長達六百年之久。在公元1100年的鼎盛之時，它擁有近兩萬名居民，可與同時代的倫敦比肩。如今，考古學家以美洲原著民部落卡霍基亞（Cahokia）來命名該城市。這座城在鼎盛期後的兩百年，在哥倫比亞來到之前的原著民們棄之而去。昔日繁華之城，如今頹圮成了八十堆荒草叢生的土丘，供人們探索。卡霍基亞曾在美國中西部地區盛極一時，它的消逝給我們留下兩個教訓。
The first concerns the environment, the likeliest cause of Cahokia’s collapse. Deforestation and polluted waterways put strains on nature. Getting enough food was hard. Researchers find evidence of big floods. Such pressures are not so different from those climate scientists warn of today. Predictions in the 1990s of warmer and wetter weather in the Midwest have proved accurate. In 2019 one of the worst floods in six decades drenched the region. Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin each had the wettest year on record in 2019. In Wisconsin, four in five of the wettest years have come in the past decade.
第一個教訓是環境問題，也是卡霍基亞沒落的最可能的原因。砍伐森林和汙染水源極大地破壞了當地環境，糧食嚴重短缺，科學家們還發現了大洪水的痕跡。卡霍基亞曾經歷的困境和與今氣候學家發出的警告別無二致。上世紀九十年代，人們對中西部氣候將變得暖溼的預測已得到證實。2019年，中西部地區遭遇了60年來最嚴重的洪災。同樣是2019年，密西根、明尼蘇達和威斯康辛州降水量均打破歷史記錄。威斯康辛州歷史記錄中降水量最大的年份有百分之八十齣現在此前十年間。
Rick Cruse, at Iowa State University, calls climate change a 「monster」 threat, mostly because of flooding. He suggests 10-12% of Iowa’s soil capacity has been lost, costing farmers $1bn a year. Last year’s deluge inundated cities like Davenport, Iowa. Overall damage was some $6.2bn. Tony Evers, Wisconsin’s governor, complains of 「crazy weather happenings」 and 「100-year floods」. Lauren Underwood, a congresswoman from Illinois, lists this as one of voters』 main concerns. John Urbahns, who promotes development in Fort Wayne, Indiana, describes 「weird late-season snowstorms」. The overfull Great Lakes, with one-fifth of the world’s fresh surface water, are eroding beaches, roads, piers and sewers.
愛荷華州立大學的裡克·克魯斯（Rick Cruse）將氣候變化稱之為「洪水猛獸」。他指出，愛荷華州流失了10-12%的土壤容量，每年造成農民損失10億美元。2019年，很多像類似愛荷華州達文波特（Davenport）的城市洪水泛濫，損失合計近62億美元。威斯康星州州長託尼·埃弗斯（Tony Evers）訴苦說，我們在經歷「瘋狂的天氣」和「百年一遇的洪水」。來自伊利諾州的國會女議員勞倫·安德伍德（Lauren Underwood）將洪水治理列為選民的一個重大關切。來自印第安納州韋恩堡（Fort Wayne）的約翰·烏爾巴恩斯（John Urbahns）描述了「罕見的季末暴風雪」。擁有世界五分之一淡水的五大湖，正過滿外溢，侵蝕海灘、道路、碼頭和下水道。
West of Iowa, the region could get too little rain in future. But most places will get more. Hotter air carries moisture inland and can suddenly unleash water. Temperature swings can cause rapid snowmelt. In the 115 years to 2016, the Great Lakes area has warmed by 0.9 C, slightly above the national rate. In the north, especially in winter, change is faster. Two-thirds of Minnesota’s counties have seen average mid-winter temperatures rise by more than 2 C. In 2018 the National Climate Assessment predicted 30% more spring and summer rain by the century’s end.
愛荷華州西部地區，未來可能會降水不足。不過，大多數地區降水過量。熱氣流將水分帶到內陸，產生暴雨。氣溫的波動還會加速冰雪融化。2016年之前115年內，五大湖地區的溫度上升了0.9 C，略高於全美水平。在北方，特別是在冬天，溫度變化更快。明尼蘇達州三分之二以上的縣冬季平均溫度上升至少2 C。2018年，美國國家氣候評估工作預測，到本世紀末，春夏兩季的降雨量將增加30%。
Like the residents of Cahokia, presumably, most Midwesterners can see change happening. Polls show that even many Republicans accept that man-made climate change is real. 「A day of ten-inch rain makes a believer out of people,」 says Mr Cruse. That does not mean many people think it is time to act, for the Midwest is less badly hurt than other regions. Farmers even see some benefit. In Iowa, May 1st was long the unofficial start of planting, but mid-April is now the norm. In South Dakota some are even trying to grow corn. City-dwellers may welcome less bitterly cold winters. Kate Collignon, a consultant, asks if the Midwest might be a haven. If coastal places face worsening tornadoes, hurricanes and forest fires, the American middle may look appealing. But that depends, at least, on cities building better infrastructure—such as big, expensive storm drains, or stronger and higher bridges—to protect themselves. Voters in the region also need to get behind a faster switch to cleaner forms of energy.
就像曾經的卡霍基亞居民一樣，大多數中西部居民都能看到正在發生的變化。民意調查顯示，甚至連許多共和黨人都已承認人類活動造成了氣候變化。「一天下10英寸高的雨讓人不得不相信這一點。」克魯斯說。可是，人們並不認為需要採取行動，因為中西部地區遭受的損失比其它地區要少。農民們甚至看到了一些好處。在愛荷華州，5月1日一直是非正式的播種時間，但現在4月中旬播種已經成為常態。在南達科他州，一些農民甚至開始嘗試種植玉米。城市居民更青睞不那麼刺骨的冬天。諮詢師凱特·科利農（Kate Collignon）提出了疑問：中西部地區是否會成為避風港？如果沿海地區面臨日益惡化的龍捲風、颶風和森林火災，那美國中部地區可能看起來很有吸引力。不過，這至少取決於各城市能否建設更好的基礎設施，如大規模的高昂造價的風暴排水系統，或者更為堅固且更高的橋梁等來保護自己。該地區的選民還需要支持加速轉向使用清潔能源。
The second lesson from Cahokia is demographic. The simplest explanation for its vanishing is that it didn’t import enough people. Modern cities, with low fertility rates, can also dwindle if they do not appeal to newcomers. Of Iowa’s 99 counties, says Art Cullen, a journalist in Storm Lake, 67 have lost population in every census since 1920. Gravity (population 187) could soon implode; Monowi in Nebraska is down to a single resident, Elsie Eiler, who is 84. Even as bigger places do well they rarely attract enough incomers, instead draining the young and the better educated from other parts of the Midwest.
第二個教訓是人口問題。卡霍基亞的沒落，最簡單的解釋就是沒有足夠的人口輸入。現代城市的生育率低，如果對新移民沒有吸引力，也面臨人口萎縮問題。暴風湖（Storm Lake）的記者阿特·卡倫（Art Cullen）稱，自1920年以來的人口普查表明，愛荷華州的99個縣中有67個縣的人口一直在減少。重力鎮（Gravity）（人口187）瀕臨崩潰；內布拉斯加州的莫諾維（Monowi）只剩84歲的艾爾西·艾勒（Elsie Eiler）一位居民。即便是較繁華的城鎮，也只能招徠中西部其他地區的年輕人以及受過良好教育的人，除此之外，很難吸引其它地區的人來此定居。
As a whole, the region is stuck with low population growth. Six of the 16 biggest cities in America in 1950 have lost more than half their populations: Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and St Louis. But even successful places find people with specific skills in short supply. The region needs frequent top-ups of foreign talent. Without immigration, the Midwest’s demographic prospects would be dire. For its universities, health systems, farms and meat-packing plants, immigrants are crucial. In Illinois, for example, 18% of all workers are foreign-born. Among IT workers the rate climbs to 27%. For doctors and surgeons it is 32%. In Michigan and Ohio the numbers are high, too.
整體而言，中西部地區陷入了人口低增長的困境。1950年美國16個最大的城市中，如今有6個城市的人口減少了一半以上，分別是布法羅、克利夫蘭、底特律、紐奧良、匹茲堡和聖路易斯。即使是一些發展較好的地區，也存在特殊技能人才供不應求的情況。這些地區需要不斷地引進外國人才。如果沒有移民的話，中西部地區的人口前景將十分嚴峻，因為對於其大學教育、衛生系統、農場和肉類包裝廠來說，移民至關重要。以伊利諾州為例，外裔工人佔比18%。在IT行業中，這一比例攀升至27%。有32%的醫生和外科醫生是外裔。在密西根州和俄亥俄州，外裔勞動力佔比也很高。
The Midwest used to be a more attractive gateway to immigrants. The foreign-born population has crept up, but by less than on the coasts. In 1970, in only one state in the region, Illinois, were more than 5% of residents foreign-born. By the latest census, in 2010, that had climbed to 14% in Illinois, 7% in Minnesota and 6% in Michigan. Those figures are probably higher now. The region was, until recently, exemplary in settling refugees. The mayor of Fort Wayne, Indiana, talks of the many Burmese families there. Dearborn, Michigan, is home to many Arab-Americans. Chicago has all sorts, including Ghanaians, Congolese and Ethiopians. St Cloud and the Twin Cities have many Somalis. Diversity has done wonders for local cuisine and entrepreneurialism, small businesses and livelier town centres.
中西部地區一度對移民極具吸引力。外裔人口數量有過上升，但幅度低於沿海地區。1970年，中西部地區只有伊利諾州的外裔居民比例超過5%。根據最近一次於2010年的人口普查，這一比例攀升到14%，明尼蘇達州為7%，密西根州為6%。如今外裔人口比例可能更高。直到不久前，中西部地區堪稱安置難民的典範。印第安納州韋恩堡（Fort Wayne）市長稱，他們那裡有許多緬甸家庭。密西根州的迪爾伯恩（Dearborn）是許多阿拉伯裔美國人的家園。芝加哥（Chicago）人口成分複雜，包括加納人、剛果人和衣索比亞人。聖克勞德（St Cloud）和雙子城（Twin Cities）有很多索馬利亞人。人口多樣性豐富了當地的飲食文化、提升了創業精神、為小企業和城市中心帶去了活力。
The biggest threat to the Midwest is that it turns away from others. A misguided national policy under Mr Trump that chokes off inflows of foreigners, while ending the resettlement of refugees, could cost the region dear. The effects of covid-19 in stalling migration will make things worse. Together they threaten to make the Midwest a place that is home to a dwindling, ageing population—on a path not so different from Cahokia’s.
目前，中西部地區拒他人於門外，這是對該地區的最大威脅。川普政策執行了一項錯誤的國家政策，扼制了外國人的流入，停止了對難民的安置，這或會使中西部地區損失慘重。新冠疫情阻礙了人口遷移，給這一問題雪上加霜。多方因素導致中西部地區人口不斷減少、老齡化—正在重蹈卡霍基亞的覆轍。
Leaders and voters should instead look for ways to open up. Companies, universities and cities, especially, should be urging national change. They need only look to booming Toronto to see how higher immigration drives growth. The most successful places are the most open. Grand Rapids wins by encouraging foreign investors and ideas. The universities of the Midwest need foreign students and staff, just as big companies seek talent from anywhere. Cities like Chicago, Minneapolis and Pittsburgh consider themselves open, welcoming and diverse. Those are values that have stood the Midwest well. They should do again.
國家領導人和選民們應該尋找開放的途徑。特別是企業、大學和城市，應該敦促全國性的變革。看看多倫多的蓬勃發展，就能明白高移民率會推動經濟增長。最成功的地方往往都是最開放的。大急流城（Grand Rapids）通過鼓勵外商投資和吸收國外的觀念贏得了發展。就像大企業需要招攬世界各地的人才一樣，中西部的大學也需要外國學生和員工。芝加哥、明尼阿波利斯和匹茲堡這樣的城市都自詡開放、包容和多元，這些也是中西部地區安身立命的價值觀，應該得以傳承。
編譯：張鶴欣
編輯：翻吧君
來源：經濟學人（2020.07.23）
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