11.20｜經濟學人閱讀｜扉頁文章 When every vote counts
經濟學人The Economist是一份英國的英文新聞周報，分八個版本於每周五向全球發行，編輯部位於倫敦，創辦於1843年9月。
經濟學人是一本綜合性新聞評論刊物，有商業、國家和地區、經濟和金融、科學和技術五大類。其中文章文風緊湊且嚴謹，對語言精準運用，展現出一種克制的風趣幽默，常運用雙關語調侃。
經濟學人對於英語考試的重要性不言而喻，其文章常常出現在雅思託福、SAT、GRE、GMAT、考研英語、四六級、MTI和CATTI的閱讀理解真題中。
今天羚羊君（公眾：aa-acad）給大家分享的是經濟學人2020年11月07日期刊中扉頁文章的第一篇：When every vote counts。
這篇文章描述了今年美國大選的進程，也闡述了兩黨面臨的問題及教訓。
想要閱讀往期內容，可以在公眾號右下角點擊"更多資訊-長文閱讀"進入專欄。
01
When every vote counts
當每一張選票都算數
Months of frantic electioneering, $13.9bn of campaign spending, a raging pandemic and mass protests over race: in spite of all the sweat and tears, America was still determining as we went to press if its next president really would be Joe Biden or whether Donald Trump might somehow wrangle a second term. Congress is likely to be split between a Democratic House and a Republican Senate—though even that result may remain in doubt until a run-o in January.
數月的瘋狂競選活動，139億美元的競選支出，大肆蔓延的疫情以及關於種族的大規模抗議活動：儘管經歷了汗水和淚水，但截至本文付梓之時，美國還未真正確定總統由喬·拜登出任還是由唐納德.川普可能以某種糾纏的方式連任。國會很可能在民主黨眾議院和共和黨參議院之間分裂，儘管這一結果在1月份的激烈競爭之前仍令人懷疑。
02
In the coming days politicians should take their cue from voters, who turned out in greater force than in any year since 1900 and who made their choice without violence. Vote-counting must run its course and disputes between the two campaigns be settled within the spirit of the law. The biggest threat to that comes from Mr Trump, who used his election-night party to claim falsely that he had already won, and to re up his supporters by warning that victory was being stolen from him. Coming from a man sworn to safeguard America’s constitution, such incitement was a reminder why many, including this newspaper, had called for voters to repudiate Mr Trump wholesale.
在未來的日子裡，政客們應該從選民那裡得到啟發。選民的力量比1900年以來的任何一年都要強大，他們在沒有使用暴力的情況下做出了選擇。計票必須順其自然，兩大陣營之間的爭端應在法律精神內解決。對此最大的威脅來自川普，他利用選舉之夜派對對選舉結果進行虛假宣傳。他宣稱自己已經贏了選舉，並通過警告大家勝利已經從他身上被竊取來煽動他的支持者們。這樣的煽動來自於曾宣誓捍衛美國憲法的川普之口。這種煽動也提醒著人們為什麼包括本報在內的許多人都呼籲選民全面否定川普先生的立場。
03
With Mr Biden’s victory they would take a crucial rst step in that direction. Only once in the past 40 years has a president been denied a second term. Mr Trump will lose the popular vote by, we reckon, 52% to 47%—only the electoral college’s bias towards rural voters saved him from a crushing defeat. That is a repudiation of sorts.
A Biden White House would also set a wholly new tone. The all-caps tweets and the constant needling of partisan divisions would go. So would the self-dealing, the habitual lying and the use of government departments to pursue personal vendettas. Mr Biden is a decent man who, after the polls closed, vowed to govern as a unier. His victory would change American policy in areas from climate to immigration. That is a form of repudiation, too.
隨著拜登先生的勝利，他們將朝著這個方向邁出關鍵的第一步。在過去的40年中，只有一次總統沒能連任的情況發生。我們認為，川普先生將失去52％至47％的普選票——只有總統選舉團對農村選民的偏見才使他免於慘敗。那是一種"批判"。
拜登白宮也將樹立全新的基調。七嘴八舌和黨派分裂的緊張局勢將不再繼續。自我交易、習慣性的謊言以及利用政府部門追捕私人仇殺者也將不再繼續。拜登先生是一個體面的人。在民意調查結束後，他發誓要以統一身份執政。他的勝利將從氣候到移民的政策等方面去改變美國。那也會是一種"批判"。
04
And yet the unexpected closeness of the vote also means populism will live on in America. With this election it has become clear that Mr Trump’s astonishing victory in 2016 was not an aberration but the start of a profound ideological shift in his party (see Lexington). Defying expectations and covid-19, he has won millions more votes in the huge turnout of 2020 than he did in 2016’s moderate one. Far from being swept away in a blue wave, Republicans have gained seats in the House and seem set to keep control of the Senate. The Republican Party, which fell under Mr Trump’s spell while he was in oce, is not about to shake itself out of the trance now. It is even conceivable that Mr Trump, or a member of his family, could run for the White House in 2024.
然而，意料之外的投票的緊密性也意味著民粹主義將在美國繼續存在。通過這次大選，很明顯，川普在2016年取得的驚人勝利不是畸變，而是黨內意識形態發生深刻轉變的開始（參見列剋星敦）。與2016年更為中等的票數相比，他在2020年贏得的票數多了數百萬張，而他沒有達到預期，也沒有成功抵禦疫情。共和黨人並沒有在眾議院被席捲而已，而是在眾議院中獲得了席位，似乎有望繼續控制參議院。共和黨在川普執政期間陷入了魔咒，但他現在不會擺脫困境。甚至可以想像，川普先生或其家庭成員可以在2024年競選白宮。
05
The outside world, which has been watching this contest with rapt attention, will draw two conclusions from America’s failure to reject Trumpism more decisively. The rst will be among populist nationalists who look to Mr Trump for inspiration and who will now reckon that their brand of politics has a brighter future outside America, too. An abject defeat for Mr Trump may have spelled trouble for politicians like Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Marine Le Pen in France. Instead Nigel Farage, formerly the leader of the Brexit Party, is busy planning his comeback (see Britain section). The persistence of Mr Trump’s support suggests that the rejection of immigration, urban elites and globalisation, which gathered pace after the nancial crisis of 2008-09, still has further to run.
一直在密切關注這場競賽的外部世界將從美國未能更果斷地拒絕川普主義中得出兩個結論。第一個結論將產生於民粹民族主義者中，他們會向川普先生尋求靈感，現在他們會認為自己的政治名牌在美國以外也擁有光明的未來。川普的一次慘敗可能給像巴西的賈爾·博爾索納羅和法國的馬林·勒龐這樣的政客帶來麻煩。與之相反的是，前英國脫歐黨領袖奈傑爾·法拉格正忙於計劃自己的復出。川普主義的持續存在表明對移民、城市精英和全球化的抗拒在2008-09年金融危機之後加速發展，仍需進一步解決。
06
The second conclusion is to be wary of relying on America. Mr Trump has been a disruptive, transactional force in foreign affairs, contemptuous of alliances and multilateralism. Mr Biden, by contrast, is steeped in the traditional values of American diplomacy from his time in the Senate. He would doubtless seek to restore close ties with allies and to strengthen global governance, by for instance, remaining in the World Health Organisation and rejoining the Paris agreement on climate change. But after this election result, everyone will know that it could all revert again in 2024.
第二個結論是要警惕對美國的依賴。川普在外交事務中一直是破壞性的交易力量，他蔑視聯盟和多邊主義。相比之下，拜登先生從參議院時期就開始沉迷於美國外交的傳統價值觀。他無疑將尋求恢復與盟友的緊密聯繫，並加強全球治理，例如留在世界衛生組織並重新加入《巴黎氣候變化協定》。但是，在這次選舉結果出爐之後，每個人都會知道，情況可能會在2024年出現反轉。
07
At home the picture is more complicated, but it contains lessons for both parties—and for their stewardship of America. The hardest message is for the Democrats. Their failure to take the Senate means that Mr Biden will struggle to pass bills or appoint judges. An infrastructure bill, health-care reform and environmental laws could all be blocked by Congress.
在國內，情況更為複雜，但這其中包含了對兩黨的教訓以及對美國管理的教訓。最艱難的信息是給民主黨人的。他們沒有爭取到參議院意味著拜登將努力通過法案或任命法官。國會可能會阻止基礎設施法案、醫療改革和環境有關的法律。
08
That failure partly reects the Democrats』 inability to attract white, non-college-educated voters, especially in rural America. They also fared less well than expected among young AfricanAmerican men and Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas. These losses undermine the Democrats』 assumption that, just because America is becoming less white and more suburban, they are destined to win elections. Rather, they will need to earn support by countering Republican claims that they are against free enterprise and that fringe obsessions with identity politics are becoming an oppressive Democratic orthodoxy.
這次失敗部分地反映出民主黨人無法吸引白人、沒有受過大學教育的選民、特別是在美國農村地區的這些選民。他們在佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的年輕非洲裔美國人和西班牙裔選民中的表現也不及預期。這些選民的丟失削弱了民主黨先前的假設：就因為美國白人越來越少且郊區越拉越多，他們是註定要贏得選舉。相反，他們將需要通過抵制共和黨的聲明來贏得支持，而共和黨聲明民主黨反對自由進取的主張以及對身份政治的種種偏執正成為具有壓迫性的民主黨的"正統主張"。
09
Republicans face lessons, too. Trumpism has its limits. If they block all legislation in the Senate so as to discredit Mr Biden, it will mark yet another electoral cycle in which the gridlock and the zero-sum logic of partisanship prevent America from grappling with its problems. Republicans will tell themselves that discrediting the Washington machine helps the party that claims to stand for limited government—however swampy the Trump administration proved. That view is as short-sighted as it is cynical.
共和黨人也面臨著教訓。川普主義有其局限性。如果他們阻止參議院的所有立法以抹黑拜登先生，那將標誌著又一個選舉周期，其中僵局和黨派關係的零和邏輯使美國無法解決自己的問題。共和黨人會告訴自己，對華盛頓機器進行抹黑可以幫助自稱代表有限政府的政黨-無論川普政府被證明多麼的鬆散。這種觀點是短視的，也是憤世嫉俗的。
經濟學人一般目錄大綱：
The world this week：簡單梳理本周的時事Leaders：社論，對本周熱點事件進行評論Briefing：簡報，對一個特定熱點話題深度討論Letter：讀者來信，對往期文章的評論Sections：各大洲及中美英三國的本周熱點事件報導Business：商業新聞Finances and economics：財經新聞Science and technology：科技新聞Books and arts：文化書籍，書評和文化現象討論Economic and financial indicators：商業及財經指數
Buttonwood：金融專欄Schumpeter：商業專欄Bartleby：職場專欄Bagehot：英國專欄Charlemagne：歐洲專欄Lexington：美國專欄Banyan：亞洲專欄