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Sunny with overcast features
遮雲蔽日
英文部分選自經濟學人Science and technology版塊
Sunny with overcast features
遮雲蔽日
Countries fall out over plans to tinker with Earth’s thermostat
各國對於改善溫室效應計劃各持己見
The idea of cooling the climate with stratospheric sunshades that would shield the planet from the sun’s warming rays moved up the international agenda this week, with mixed results. On the one hand, new research suggested that it is theoretically possible to fine-tune such a shield without some of its potentially damaging consequences. Publication of this work coincided with a proposal at the biennial UN Environment Assembly (UNEA), held in Nairobi, Kenya, for an expert review of such geoengineering methods. This was the highest-level discussion of the topic so far. On the other hand, the more than 170 nations involved could not arrive at a consensus. In a fitting illustration of the heat surrounding geoengineering, the proposal was withdrawn at the eleventh hour.
本周國際議程中出現了一項降低氣溫的提案，即在平流層加一層「遮陽罩」保護地球免遭太陽光線直射，（但各國）看法不一。一方面，新研究表明，對這層「保護膜」進行微調而不帶來潛在的破壞性後果在理論上是可能實現的。這項研究成果發布時，在肯亞首都內羅比舉行的兩年一屆的聯合國環境大會上也同時出現了一項提案，該提案建議對前文提到的這一「地球工程」方案進行專家審議。這成為迄今為止關於此話題層次最高的討論。另一方面， 與會的170多個國家並未就此達成一致看法。在對地球工程將會遭遇的高溫情況作了恰當說明後，這項提案在最後時刻被撤回。
註：Geoengineering: the deliberate large-scale manipulation of an environmental process that affects the earth’s climate, in an attempt to counteract the effects of global warming.
Under the Paris Agreement, governments have pledged to keep average global warming to 「well below」 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to try to limit maximum warming to 1.5°C. Many see these targets as wishful thinking: the planet is already roughly 1°C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times, global greenhouse gas emissions are still on the rise and national pledges to cut them fall short of what is needed to hit the 2°C target, let alone 1.5°C.
各國政府在巴黎協議中承諾，以前工業時代氣溫為基準，讓全球平均溫度增幅遠低於2°C，並努力將最大增幅控制在1.5°C內。許多專家卻認為這兩個目標是異想天開。目前地球氣溫相比前工業時代已經上升了約1°C，全球溫室氣體排放量依舊在持續增長，而且，假如按照各國許下的承諾來實施，是無法實現2°C的目標的，更不用說1.5°C了。Faced with this, some think there is a need to turn down the global thermostat using geoengineering. This encompasses a range of possibilities, including technologies that suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and others that block incoming solar energy. One concern, however, is that these methods do not deal with the cause of the problem: greenhouse-gas emissions. Despite calls to map out the risks and benefits of geoengineering, progress on the international stage has been limited, in part, because it might detract from efforts to reduce emissions. That shifted this week when the delegates in Nairobi debated a proposal for an international assessment. It is the first time that geoengineering has been discussed at such a level and in a forum that includes America.
面臨如此境況，一些專家認為有必要通過「地球工程」來控制全球變暖了。這存在一系列的可能方法，包括將二氧化碳從大氣中抽走的技術，以及阻擋太陽能的其他手段。然而，值得關注的是這些方法並沒有抓住問題的緣由：溫室氣體的排放。儘管有人呼籲列出「地球工程」的風險與益處，但國際舞臺上的進展已經受到了限制，部分原因在於實施這一工程可能會分散掉減排的精力。這一情況在本周內羅比的與會代表討論對「地球工程」作國際評估的提案後發生了變化。這是「地球工程」第一次在有美國參會的高層論壇上被討論。The UNEA resolution was tabled by Switzerland, and by the start of the week it had received support from most governments. It called for an expert review of the science of geoengineering, including studies on the suite of available technologies, how each might be deployed and how well they would or would not work, as well as any possible negative consequences. The proposal also called for an analysis of the challenges in regulating each approach.
聯合國環境大會的決議被瑞士擱置，但於本周初獲得了多數政府的支持。這次提案要求對「地球工程」的技術性展開專家審議，涉及對可用技術的研究、每項技術如何展開、技術的實施效果以及任何可能的負面後果。提案同時也要求對控制每一項技術的難點作出分析。Among the most controversial but also effective and affordable geoengineering options are planetary sunshades. By using high-flying aircraft, for instance, to spray a fine mist of mineral or man-made particles into the upper stratosphere, a portion of the sun’s incoming energy could be bounced back out into space before it gets a chance to warm the planet. The decadesold idea is inspired by large volcanic eruptions, like that of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, which cooled global temperatures by up to 0.5°C for four years.
在最具爭議性但同時有效且費用合理的地球工程方案中，有一個是行星遮陽篷。例如，通過高空飛行的飛機將細小的礦物或人造顆粒霧噴射到平流層上層，可以將部分太陽向地球發射的能量反彈回太空，避免其使地球升溫。這一幾十年前就有的想法受到了大型火山爆發的啟發，如1991年菲律賓的皮納圖博火山爆發，使得四年內全球氣溫降低了0.5°C。In the shade
遮陽蓬的蔭蔽
That event demonstrated that relatively simple sunshades could have a significant effect on global temperatures. Indeed, while climate models project that doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could cause between 1.5°C and 4°C of global warming, the models also suggest that it is theoretically possible to reduce temperatures by an equal amount using a sunshade.
這一事件證明，相對簡單的遮陽篷可能對全球氣溫產生重大影響。的確，雖然氣候模型預測大氣中二氧化碳濃度加倍可能導致全球變暖1.5°C到4°C，這些模型也同樣表明理論上可以使用遮陽板將溫度降低相同的量。But there are challenges. Stratospheric particles eventually fall back to Earth in rain, so the effect is short-lived. A sunshade would need to be continually resupplied, which is one reason for an international governance framework. If a sunshade were allowed to dissipate while atmospheric CO2 concentrations remained high, global temperatures would rapidly shoot up, with devastating consequences in some regions of the world.
但是也存在一些挑戰。平流層顆粒最終會隨降雨一道落回地球，因此降溫效果是暫時的。需要不斷補給遮陽蓬，這是為什麼需要國際治理框架的原因之一。如果允許遮陽蓬消散，而同時大氣中的二氧化碳濃度仍然很高，那麼全球氣溫將迅速飆升，這會在世界某些地區造成嚴重後果。Another problem is the effect of solar geoengineering on the water cycle. Over the past decade, several studies have suggested that sunshades could disproportionately affect rainfall, bringing drought to some regions. But that argument may be oversimplified, according to the new study published in Nature Climate Change.
另一個問題是太陽能地球工程對水循環的影響。在過去的十年中，一些研究表明，遮陽傘可能會對降雨造成比例失衡的影響，給某些地區帶來乾旱。但根據《自然氣候變化》(Nature Climate Change) 公布的新研究，這一論點可能過於簡單。So far, most studies have modelled a 「fully」 geoengineered world in which CO2 concentrations are doubled compared with current or pre-industrial levels, and all the resulting warming is counterbalanced by a stratospheric sunshade. Instead, Peter Irvine of Harvard University and his colleagues simulated a partial sunshade. They were able to eliminate half the warming effect of doubled CO2 concentrations while stabilising the water cycle.
到目前為止，大多數研究都模擬了「完全遮蓋」的地球工程世界，其中二氧化碳濃度與當前或前工業化社會水平相比翻了一倍，並且所有由此導致的升溫都被平流層遮陽蓬所抵消。而哈佛大學的彼得·歐文及其同事模擬了一個部分遮陽蓬。 在這個模型下，他們能夠將因二氧化碳濃度翻倍而導致的溫室效應消除一半，同時穩定水循環。In a warmer world, due to greenhouse gas emissions, the water cycle is intensified, making drier regions drier and wetter regions wetter, leading to floods and droughts. In their modelled 「half-warmed」 world, Dr Irvine and his colleagues found that both temperature and precipitation extremes were moderated, which should lead to fewer droughts and floods.
由於溫室氣體排放，在變暖之後的世界，水循環加劇，使得乾燥地區更乾燥，溼潤地區更溼潤，從而導致洪水和乾旱。 在他們模擬的「半變暖」世界中，歐文博士和他的同事發現溫度和降水極值都得到了緩和，因此乾旱和洪水發生的次數會減少。The team also looked at how solar geoengineering would affect tropical cyclones. Doubling CO2 concentrations compared with present-day levels increased the cumulative intensity of all tropical cyclones by 17.6%. The partial sunshade brought that increase down to 2.4%. Limitations in the model made it impossible to see if this benefit was equally distributed across different regions, such as the Pacific and the Atlantic.
該團隊還研究了太陽能地球工程將如何影響熱帶氣旋。將二氧化碳濃度增加到當前水平的兩倍後，所有熱帶氣旋的累積強度增加了17.6％。 部分遮陽蓬使這一增長降至2.4％。模型的局限性使得他們無法確定這種優勢是否能在不同地區平均分配，比如太平洋和大西洋。The researchers say their study is more relevant to real policy decisions because it shines some light on what could be done by, for instance, combining solar geoengineering with efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But all this would require international consensus, and obtaining that may be a fantasy.
研究人員表示，他們的研究與實際政策決策更為相關，因為該研究闡明了諸如將太陽能地球工程與減少溫室氣體排放的努力相結合可以得到的結果。 但所有這些都需要國際共識，而達成該共識也許只是個遙不可及的夢。The barriers to unity were on display in Nairobi. In 2010 the Convention on Biological Diversity advised against geoengineering activities 「until there is an adequate scientific basis」 to justify them, but America is not a party to that convention. It was represented at unea. However, several delegates told this newspaper that America and Saudi Arabia opposed the Swiss proposal to review geoengineering, preferring the issue to be assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc), which is due to include something about the technologies in its next big report, expected in 2021.
達成一致遇到的障礙在奈洛比一再出現。 2010年，「生物多樣性公約」提議反對地球工程活動，「直到有充分的科學依據」證明這些活動的合理性，才能實施。但美國不是該公約的締約國。該提議是在聯合國環境大會上提出的。 然而，有幾位代表告訴本報，美國和沙烏地阿拉伯反對瑞士提出的審查地球工程的提案，更傾向於由政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）評估這個問題。IPCC預計於2021年在其下一份重要報告中提及有關技術的內容。The distinction may seem procedural, but the Swiss proposal was for a more comprehensive appraisal and one that would be delivered more quickly, by August 2020. What is more, the ipcc’s mandate is primarily to consider the science of geoengineering, not whether and how to regulate its various technologies. And the impact of those technologies on a regional and global scale means governance questions will be at least as tricky as the scientific ones. Indeed, there are concerns that some geoengineering methods could be unilaterally deployed by one or more nations, to the possible detriment of others. 「unep is the right space because it is the anchor institution of the un for the environment that collects information but also has a policy function,」 said Franz Perrez, Switzerland’s ambassador for the environment.
這種分歧似乎是程序性的，但瑞士的提議是要做一個更全面、更迅速的評估，要在2020年8月之前得到評估結果。並且，IPCC的任務主要是考慮地球工程的科學問題，而不是要不要以及怎樣去管控該工程涉及的各種技術。由於這些技術會造成區域性乃至全球範圍的影響，治理問題至少會和科學問題一樣棘手。實際上，有人擔心個別或者部分國家可能單方面部署一些地球工程方案，這可能會損害其他國家。瑞士環境大使弗蘭茲・佩雷斯（Franz Perrez）說：「聯合國環境大會是一個合適的地方，因為作為聯合國的主要環境機構，它不僅收集信息，同時也具有政策功能。」The Americans, some said, did not appear to want to make room for conversations, let alone make decisions, about a framework for geoengineering that could restrict their future options. A spokesman for their delegation declined to comment.
一些人說，美國人似乎並不想參與有關地球工程框架的對話，更不用說做出相關決定，因為這會限制他們未來的選擇。該代表團的發言人拒絕發表評論。Supporters of the proposal insisted they sought an honest analysis. There is a bitter irony in the meeting’s outcome. The only reason the world may need geoengineering is that talks about cutting emissions have gone on so long but achieved so little. Yet in Nairobi delegates could not even commission a report. Geoengineering, the toolbox that a decade ago nobody wanted, could end up stuck in the same international procedures as efforts to tackle the root cause of global warming.
該提案的支持者堅稱他們尋求誠實的分析。會議結果有點諷刺。這個世界可能需要採取地球工程的唯一原因是關於減排的討論持續了太久，卻一直沒取得什麼成果，因此才轉而討論另一種方案。然而在奈洛比，代表們甚至無法提交報告。地球工程方案在十年前根本沒人想採用，而今被提上議程，但可能也會像其他解決全球變暖根本原因的努力一樣陷入國際程序，成為空談。翻譯組：
Cindy，女，未來外貿工，TE粉
Sinyar，女，理性樂觀派，TE愛好者
Jasmine，稅務，愛笑愛生活愛經濟學人
Lee ，愛騎行的婦女之友，Timberland粉
校核組：
Max，Catti2口，會彈吉他的冰上尤裡
Goosey，北大翻碩，愛彈鋼琴的美男子，性取向基本正常