中國石化新聞網訊 據油價網倫敦報導，美國惠譽評級公司(Fitch Ratings)日前表示，在歐佩克+決定從2021年1月開始每月日增50萬桶原油產量之後，惠譽評級公司預計明年布倫特原油平均價格將為每桶45美元。
惠譽評級公司高級主管德米特裡·馬林琴科12月4日告訴美國全國廣播公司財經頻道（CNBC），「我們預計明年布倫特原油的平均價格將為每桶45美元。」
他補充說，「這是假設至少在下半年之前全球石油需求將保持疲弱，因為大規模疫苗接種的進展很可能不會很快。」
11月末，有關疫苗的消息推高了油價，而歐佩克+在經過長時間的討論後，就減產協議的後續步驟達成了協議，這一事實幫助油價在本周保持高位。
然而，由於圍繞疫苗分配的挑戰以及明年將有更多歐佩克+石油進入市場的事實逐漸被人們所理解，這種情況可能很快就會改變。這還不包括不受歐佩克+減產協議約束的某國繼續在增產。
馬林琴科對美國全國廣播公司財經頻道記者表示，新冠肺炎疫苗不太可能對油價產生重大影響，這與人們普遍預期的相反，即一旦疫苗廣泛可用，石油需求將迅速反彈。
輝瑞公司本周早些時候表示，由於供應鏈問題，該公司今年將只發運原計劃疫苗劑量的一半，這表明大規模疫苗接種並不像許多人想要相信的那樣簡單。
馬林琴科表示，「由於需求疲弱，加上歐佩克試圖管理供應，以避免市場出現大量盈餘或逆差，我們預計明年布倫特原油平均油價將在每桶45美元。」
李峻 編譯自 油價網
原文如下：
Fitch Sees Brent At $45 Next Year
Fitch Ratings said it expected Brent crude to average $45 a barrel next year, following OPEC+’s decision to start raising production by 500,000 bpd monthly from January 2021.
「We expect prices to be, on average, at $45 next year for Brent,」 Fitch senior director Dmitry Marinchenko told CNBC today.
「This assumes that the demand will remain weak until at least the second half of the year, because the progress with mass vaccination probably will not be very quick,」 he added.
Vaccine news sent oil prices higher at the end of last month, and the fact that OPEC+ had achieved an agreement on the next steps in the production cut deal after long debates helped them stay higher this week.
However, this may soon change as the challenges around vaccine distribution and the fact that there will be more OPEC+ oil coming into markets next year sink in. And that’s without counting a certain country, which continues to boost its production, unbound by the OPEC+ deal.
Vaccines are unlikely to significantly affect oil prices, Marinchenko told CNBC, going counter to widespread expectations that once a vaccine is widely available, oil demand will quickly rebound.
In evidence that mass vaccination will not be as simple as many may want to believe, Pfizer said earlier this week it will only ship half of the vaccine doses it originally planned for this year because of supply chain problems.
「With weak demand, and with OPEC trying to manage supply … to avoid large surpluses or deficits in the market, we expect prices to be at $45 next year,」 Fitch Ratings』 Marinchenko said