譯者 王為
文中黑字部分為原文，藍字部分為譯文，紅字部分為譯者注釋或補充說明
Deutsche Bank: Undervalued And Misunderstood? With Great Risk Comes Great Discount
by The Fortune Teller of SeekingAlpha
Summary
要點
Douglas Braunstein's Hudson Executive Capital LP has taken a 3.1% stake in Deutsche Bank. Should we join them?
Douglas Braunstein執掌的Hudson Executive Capital已買進德意志銀行3.1%的股票，我們應該跟上去插一腳嗎？
Christian Sewing, DB's CEO, dismissed speculations regarding a merger with Commerzbank. Should we believe him?
德意志銀行執行長Christian Sewing否認將與德國商業銀行進行合併，其言可信乎？
Jamie Dimon, JPM's CEO, isn't interested in buying DB. We believe him.
摩根大通銀行執行長Jamie Dimon無意兼併德銀，信他沒錯
Uncle Ben says that "with great power comes great responsibility."
蜘蛛俠的Ben大叔說過，「權力越大，責任越大」
We say that "with great risk comes great discount."
我們則認為「風險越大，折扣應該越大」
In case you've missed it, few days ago (on October 30th to be precise), we've witnessed history: The stock prices of Deutsche Bank (DB) and General Electric (GE) met, for the same time ever, in the single-digit territory.
以防諸位貴人多忘事，幾天前，確切地講就是10月30日，我們親眼目睹了歷史一幕：德意志銀行和通用電氣的股價會師了，手拉著手跌到前所未有的一位數。
DB data by YCharts
While GE is still trading near its post-subprime crisis lows, DB already jumped circa 7% from its lows.
近日，當通用電氣的股價還在2008年次貸危機後的最低點附近徘徊之際，德意志銀行的股價已從前幾日的最低點反彈了約7%。
There were two reasons for this jump of DB stock in recent days:
德意志銀行股價近日反彈的原因有二：
The obvious-intuitive reason - a nice bounce for both the stock market as whole but also for the financial sector, in the USas well as in Europe.
原因其一顯而易見，非常直觀。不僅美股大盤來了個漂亮的反轉上揚，歐美股市金融板塊也雨露均沾。
SPY Price data by YCharts
2. New York-based Hudson Executive Capital LP, an activist hedge fund led by Douglas Braunstein - the former finance chief of JPMorgan (JPM) - has taken a 3.1% stake in DB, Germany's (EWG) largest lender.
原因其二，前摩根大通銀行的財務長，總部位於紐約、表現活躍的對衝基金Hudson Executive Capital的老大Doug Braunstein
已買進德意志銀行這家德國最大的商業銀行3.1%的股票。
They claim that Deutsche Bank is "undervalued and misunderstood" and (therefore) happily backing Christian Sewing (DB's relatively new CEO) in his efforts to turn things around, while acknowledging that there is much more to do in order to bring Germany’s biggest bank back to shape.
該基金聲稱德銀的價值「遭到低估和誤解」，因此很樂意力挺德銀的新米執行長Christian Sewing為拯救德銀所做的努力，同時也承認這家德國最大的商業銀行要想重振雄風還有很長的路要走。
People were so negative on this name that they lost the forest through the trees.- Douglas Braunstein
看不好這家銀行的人是只見樹木不見森林——Doug Braunstein語錄
The $650M-worth move isn't only Hudson Executive Capital's biggest bet, but it also makes the hedge fund one of Deutsche Bank’s biggest investors.
這筆6.5億美元的投資不但是Hudson Executive Capital最大的一筆賭注，而且還讓該對衝基金成為德銀最大的股東之一。
After three years of mounting losses, a failed regulatory stress test, several attempts to restructure, a leadership shake-up and a few credit ratings downgrade, many investors have lost faith in Germany’s flagship bank.
在經歷了連續三年巨額虧損，一次監管壓力測試失敗，數次試圖重組的努力，一次領導層換血以及幾次信用降級後，很多投資者已經對這家德國最大的銀行信心全無。
Nonetheless, this (bold?) move certainly causing us to ask ourselves: Is the worst is indeed over for Deutsche Bank? Is it time to reconsider our bearish thesis?
不管怎樣，這一勇者之舉的確讓我們捫心自問：德銀的最低潮真的過去了嗎？我們是否應該對看空德銀的觀點做出修正？
Spoiler alert: We still believe that may be a stretch. Thus far, this has been nothing but from bad to worse. Why this time is different???
劇透一下：我們仍然認為德銀的困境還會持續一段時間。到目前為止，德銀的狀況還在每況愈下。有什麼理由認為這次會不同以往？？？
Let's see what are the main issues that cause us to maintain Deutsche Bank at the "interesting but not convincing enough" drawer for now:
下面來梳理一下那些讓我們依然認為德銀股價「有那麼點意思但仍不足以令人看好」的理由吧：
The Fed turning off the liquidity is certainly not helpful, to say the least.
至少可以這麼講，聯儲抽走市場流動性對德銀來說顯然不算利好。
The ECB is expected to join soon. That's, of course, unless they decide to back off and change course beforehand...
有預測歐洲央行也要步美聯儲的後塵，當然了，除非歐美央行從加息立場上後退並改弦更張。。。
2. No one seems keen to merge with a struggling bank.
似乎沒人熱衷於與一家深陷困境的銀行談婚論嫁。
As we wrote in our reply to one of the comments on our most recent DB-related article:
我們是這樣回復對我們最近關於德銀的文章所做的一個評論的：
...it's more likely the German authorities will push for something on a domestic level.Although 20B is a very low-affordable price tag, I doubt any non-German lender would like to take the (huge) risk associated with buying such a group at its current condition.Too many unknowns, let alone the political risk.
「。。。德國監管當局很有可能將在國內層面上推動某些事。儘管收購德銀所需的200億美元代價相當低，但我不相信任何一家非德國的商業銀行會願意以當前的市場條件買入這樣一家銀行集團，給自己帶來巨大的風險。這其中有太多的未知因素，更不要說政治風險了。」
When asked about a potential merger with its German counterpart, Commerzbank, DB's CEO Christian Sewing said that these speculations are "bullshit".
在被問到德銀是否會與另一家德國銀行——德國商業銀行進行合併時，德銀執行長Christian Sewing表示這些猜測是「一派胡言」。
Who would by interested in buying DB? After dealing with waves of fines for mistakes/wrong doings banks they saved made before they bailed then out, it's very unlikely for JPM, Bank of America (BAC) or Welles Fargo (WFC) - all came for the rescue during the financial crisis - to take the same path again.
誰會有興趣收購德銀？在為所收購的銀行在被收購前犯下的錯誤和管理不善承擔了數輪處罰後，很難想像摩根大通，美國銀行或富國銀行這幾家在金融危機時期扮演過白衣騎士角色的銀行會再次挺身而出。
On the very same day that Hudson Executive Cap took a 3.1% ownership stake in Germany's flagship lender, JPM's CEO Jamie Dimon said, plain and simple, that his bank has no interest in buying Deutsche Bank.
就在Hudson Executive Capital買進德銀3.1%股權的同一天，摩根大通的執行長Jamie Dimon直接了當地表示：該行無意兼併德銀。
I wonder why Dimon is so clear-sharp about this? After all, DB's current valuation is peanuts for JPM, or Citibank (C) for that matter.
我還好奇為啥Dimon在這件事上如此乾脆利索？畢竟，按德銀現在的估值水平，對摩根大通和花旗銀行來說，買下德銀根本不是個事兒。下圖中，黃線為摩根大通，總市值3620億美元；綠線為花旗銀行，市值1607億美元；趴在最下面的白線是德銀，市值212億美元。
Bear in mind that any bailout/merger/takeover is likely to be quite dillutive for DB's shareholders. Neither the German government, nor any interested/forced party to such a deal, will be willing to pay the current market price.
要記住一點，任何援救、兼併和收購德銀的行動都有可能大幅稀釋德銀現有股東的權益。不僅是德國政府，包括其他任何主動或被動介入進來的第三方在內，沒人願意按照當前的市價出手買下德銀。
Paraphrasing on Uncle Ben's famous "with great power comes great responsibility" words, I'd say thatwith great risk comes great discount.
套用一下蜘蛛俠的Ben大叔所說的那句名言「權力越大，責任越大」，我要說的是「風險越大，折扣應該越大」。
3. Eurozone powder keg keeps growing more dangerous.
在歐元區傳統的危機策源地，局勢正在日益惡化
While expanding by 0.8% Y/Y, Italy (EWI) seasonally adjusted GDP for the third quarter came in flat Q/Q.
義大利三季度GDP同比去年同期的增速為0.8%，經季節性調節後環比增速持平。
Winter is coming and the wold's 9th/Europe's 3rd biggest economy is having a systemic problem.
冬季將至，全球第九大、歐洲第三大經濟體的經濟遭遇到系統性風險。
This is not only bad news for the Eurozone but also for DB.
這不僅對歐洲來說是個壞消息，對德銀來說也一樣，義大利各季度經濟增速見下圖。
The gap between the performances of American versus European banks has never been wider than it's right now.
美國和歐洲銀行在股價走勢上的差異從未像現在這樣大，下圖中黑線為標準普爾指數中金融板塊股價走勢，藍線為歐洲銀行板塊股價走勢。
4. CoCo says...
COCO債是咋說的。。。
A Contingent Convertible (aka "CoCo") bond, also known as an Enhanced Capital Note ("ECN") is essentially a debt instrument that might get converted into common equity if a pre-specified (unfortunate) trigger event occurs.
Contingent Convertible bond即COCO債，中文翻譯成或有可轉換債，也被稱為資本增強票據，實際上是一種在預設的危機條款被觸發的情況下可轉換成普通銀行股的債務工具。（關於COCO債，和訊網有一篇文章介紹的比較細，網頁連結為http://bond.hexun.com/2015-02-12/173316942.html，
）
CoCo's are similar to traditional convertible bonds in that there is a strike price - the cost of the stock, if and when the debt is being converted into common stock. What differs is that (on top of the strike price), there is another threshold which triggers the conversion when certain (shortage of) capital conditions are met.
Here is the Deutsche Bank 6% CoCo bond, issued in 2014.
COCO債類似於傳統的可轉換公司債，也有一個將債券轉換成普通股的行權價。區別之處在於，除了轉股價，還有另一個條款規定發行該債券的銀行資本短缺到了某種程度會觸發轉股。以下是德銀髮行於2014年、票息為6%的COCO債的基本情況。
Almost 4.5-years after this CoCo been issued, it is selling for a yield closer to ~9%
這隻已經發行了約4年半的德銀COCO債，在二級市場上的收益率水平都快到9%了。
DB's bonds are getting the same "respect" that Italian government bonds are getting.
市場對德銀債券的看法與對義大利國債的看法正在走向一致。
5. Speaking of Italy...
說到義大利。。。
Deutsche Bank and Italians lenders are in a stress-test spotlight.
德銀和義大利的商業銀行在監管部門組織的壓力測試中表現感人，下圖右側高高在上的藍線為義大利裕信銀行未來五年的違約概率，緊隨其下的黃線為德銀的違約概率走勢。
Remember: The ECB is stepping out of the markets soon (as an active buyer of European bonds, with new money that it pumps into the system).
要記住一點：歐洲央行是歐洲債券市場上最活躍的買家之一，以購債的方式將新發行的貨幣注入到歐元區的貨幣體系當中，如今歐洲央行很快就將淡出市場。
We know it isn't neither Italian banks nor other Italian financial entities that are buying Italian government bonds. It's mostly (if not entirely) the ECB buying Italian sovereign debt. What will happen when the fat lady sings?
我們知道買進義大利國債的主力既不是義大利的商業銀行也不是義大利的其他金融機構，是歐洲央行買走了即使不是全部但也是很大一部分的義大利國債。在寬鬆貨幣政策曲終人散之後會發生什麼？
下圖：誰在2015年以後買了義大利的國債？
高高在上的黑線是歐洲央行淨買入的義大利國債金額，約為3500億歐元；紅線為義大利國內金融機構，灰線為境外投資者，兩者在2015年之後淨買入義大利國債的金額幾乎為零；藍線為義大利國內非金融機構，淨買入義大利國債的金額反而是-100億歐元。
可見除了歐洲央行，其他投資者都在觀望或退場。
The negative impact on the total assets worth of Italian banks can very easily and quickly spill over to other European banks once the "big brother" is moving to the sidelines.
一旦歐洲央行這位「大哥」離場不玩了，全部義大利商業銀行持有的義大利國債因此將遭受到的負面影響會輕而易舉且迅速地傳導到歐洲其他國家的各家銀行。
Some say that the discount to book value makes DB attractive. Guess what? Although DB is indeed the bank trading with the largest discount to BV among European banks, this is certainly not a unique feature, thus not a good selling pitch.
有人說德銀股價相對於德銀的帳面價值大打折扣讓德銀股價頗有吸引力。你猜怎麼著？儘管德銀的確是歐洲各家商業銀行裡股價較帳面價值折扣最大的一家，但僅憑這一點肯定算不上什麼獨特的優勢，因此這不是一個好的賣點。
下圖為各家歐元區商業銀行股價相對於帳面價值的折扣程度，德銀折扣率為70%，傳出合併緋聞的德國商業銀行折扣率為60%，義大利裕信銀行為50%。
Others keep this famous, still relevant, chart at the back of their minds:
其他人還在腦海深處對這張著名的，但頗具借鑑意義的圖記憶猶新：
下圖作何解？
在2008年金融危機期間，即將遭到倒閉厄運的雷曼兄弟公司的執行長Richard S. Fuld Jr.
對外喊話「雷曼尚持有數十億美元的高流動性資產」，其後股價繼續一瀉千裡；而已於今年4月份下臺的前德銀執行長John Cryan
，也曾在德銀股價暴跌期間喊話「對德銀當前的流動性感到滿意」。可是這兩家的股價走勢怎麼一樣一樣的？所有領導都是一個套路忽悠人的？
For us, it's more of the same.
對我們來講，這些都是一路貨色。
Deutsche Bank lured an activist investor. Fine, but other than the "under-valued" and "new management" cards, we're curious what's the new playbook here? Why and how this time is going to be different?
德銀忽悠到了一家愛出風頭的機構投資者，嗯，很好啊，但洒家感興趣的不是「股價被低估」以及「換班子了」之類的幌子，而是更關心德銀能掏出啥新套路嗎？為啥這次就會有所不同了，這次怎麼就會有所不同了？
Frankly, we are not seeing it as of yet.
坦率地講，到目前為止洒家還沒看清楚這一點。
As we all know, hope is the last to die.
眾所周知，有希望，即永生。
Betting on, i.e. hoping for, the new CEO's ability to revive the bank's sagging profits by pursuing a turnaround strategy is something we are not yet finding convincing enough to push us towards changing our current, still bearish, stance.
我們希望德銀新的CEO有能力以力挽狂瀾的戰略讓德銀起死回生，但迄今為止我們尚未找到有說服力的理由改變我們看空德銀的觀點。
Should we've been shareholders of DB we wouldn't be selling the stock right now; certainly not shorting it. A valuation of only ~$20B is becoming quite compelling, even for us, simply and solely because it's so cheap.
如果我們現在還是德銀的股東，我們不會在眼下賣掉德銀的股票，肯定也不會做空它。估值只有200億美元很讓人心癢，甚至對我們來說也是如此，確實因為但也僅僅因為這個價錢真心不貴。
However, "cheap" doesn't equate "attractive".
但是，但可是，「便宜」不等於「有魅力」。
Price is what you pay, value is what you get - Warren Buffett
付出什麼價錢，得到什麼價值——巴菲特
沒理解錯的話，巴菲特的意思按老話講就是「種瓜得瓜，種豆得豆」，再實在點就是「種茄子結不了土豆」。
整篇文章都在拽詞，我實在忍不住了，豁出去了，湊個熱鬧捅個詞，管它用的對不對，把電影"肖申科的救贖"裡的臺詞送給看好德銀的人吧：
A strong man can save himself,a great man can save another.
強者自救，聖者渡人