從科爾尼發布新冠肺炎疫情期間調研的外商直接投資（FDI）信心指數透露，儘管疫情在短期內給中國經濟造成重創，但投資者還是對中國經濟的快速強勁復甦持樂觀態度。
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管理諮詢公司科爾尼近日發布2020年外商直接投資（FDI）信心指數報告，由於新冠病毒疫情對全球經濟帶來的影響，未來一年內FDI將急劇下降，未來將如何復甦以及何時復甦目前仍不明朗。
Foreign direct investment will plummet in the year ahead as a result of COVID-19 and the nature and timeline of recovery remain highly uncertain, according to The 2020 Kearney Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Confidence Index from global strategy and management consulting firm Kearney.
本次調研開始時，新冠肺炎疫情才剛剛在全球範圍內蔓延，當時疫情帶來的市場衝擊也才初顯端倪，世界正處於病毒大流行的邊緣。
The survey was in the field as COVID-19 was starting its deadly spread across the globe, with market shocks just beginning to emerge, and it captures a moment in time in which the world was on the brink—as it was entering a great storm.
在調研初期，也就是在病毒大肆傳播之前，商界領袖們對全球經濟和外商直接投資的前景還是相當樂觀的。在當時看來，新冠肺炎疫情似乎僅限於在亞洲地區擴散。事實上，當時更多的投資者曾表示，相比去年，他們對未來一年的投資前景更加樂觀。
At the outset of the survey period, before the spread of the virus, business leaders were reasonably bullish about the global economy and the future of direct investment. In fact, more investors said they were more optimistic about the coming year than they were last year.
然而，就在調研結束前兩周，投資者開始意識到自己正在「被捲入一場大風暴」中，不出所料，他們的信心開始全面下滑，包括對發達市場、新興市場和前沿市場的投資信心，這也恰恰反映了當時疫情已經向全球迅速蔓延。
However, as investors realized they were 「entering the storm」 in the last two weeks of the survey, investor confidence predictably declined across the board—for developed, emerging, and frontier markets alike, mirroring the rapid outbreak of the pandemic.
從調研的前兩周到最後兩周，所有市場的投資吸引力得分都下降了25-33%。
Between the first two weeks of the survey and the last two weeks, scores for each of these categories of markets all fell 25-33 percent.
科爾尼FDI信心指數創始人、全球商業政策委員會主席羅德俠表示：「疫情及其帶來的經濟衝擊表明，外部經營環境發生變化的速度竟然會如此之快，帶來的影響又是如此之深刻。」
「The pandemic and its subsequent economic shocks show just how quickly and profoundly the external operating environment can change,」 says Paul A. Laudicina, founder of the FDI Confidence Index and chairman of Kearney’s Global Business Policy Council.
他說：「今年，發達市場在投資吸引力方面繼續表現良好，可能是因為這些市場在投資者優先考量的若干因素中實力較強，包括有吸引力的投資環境和強大的技術基礎設施等等。」
「Developed markets continue to do well this year likely because they show strength in the factors that investors tend to prioritize in their investment decisions, including an attractive investment environment and strong technological infrastructure. 」
科爾尼全球商業政策委員會常務董事、本報告的合著者Erik Peterson 提出，由於醫療基礎設施不足、財政選擇有限以及總體貧困程度較高等等，新興市場和前沿市場受到的影響更大。
「Emerging and frontier markets will suffer disproportionately due to a confluence of factors, including inadequate medical infrastructure, limited fiscal options, and higher levels of poverty overall.」 says Erik Peterson, managing director of the Global Business Policy Council and co-author of the study.
從好的方面來說，投資者似乎也期待著投資氣候能有一些大變化，因為對80%的受訪企業來說，這些變化會對他們現有的FDI決策產生重大影響。
On the brighter side, one area in which investors do appear to be anticipating important changes is climate change, which is affecting the existing foreign direct investments of four-fifths of companies.
在今年的調研中，受訪者普遍都對投資氣候變化有極高的關注度，這表明氣候變化的相關問題是投資者最關心的。
The remarkable level of awareness of climate change risks reflected in this year’s survey suggests that these matters are front of mind for investors,
而做好應對變化風險的準備，需要企業有更仔細的規劃和戰略性的思維。
but becoming prepared for these risks will require careful planning and strategic thinking.
60%的投資者預測未來三年會因為投資氣候變化而遭受財務損失。
A strong majority of investors—60 percent—anticipate climate change-related financial losses over the next three years.
另外，潛在FDI目的國家的投資環境影響是85%的投資者做出投資決策時的另一個重要考量因素。
And the environmental impact of potential FDI targets is a factor in investment decisions for the overwhelming majority—85 percent—of investors.
因此，今年的指數排名中僅三個發展中國家位列前25名：中國、巴西和阿聯，而且他們整體排名不高，與前幾年位置不變。
That’s why emerging markets capture only three spots within top 25, they are China, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates, and their overall rankings are not high, unchanged from those of previous years.
中國在所有發展中國家中處於最高的排名，這也是中國自1999年以來一直保持的成績。
China has the highest ranking among all developing countries, which is an achievement that China has maintained since 1999.
今年中國排名第八，相較2019年排名下降一名，也是中國自FDI指數發布以來，二十餘年間的最低排名。然而，中國依然是全球FDI前10大投資目的地中唯一的新興市場國家。
China lands in eighth place this year, its lowest-ever position in the Index. It remains, however, the only emerging market ranked among the top 10 markets for FDI globally.
中國的高排名表明，儘管疫情在短期內給中國經濟造成重創，但投資者在調研期間還是對中國經濟的快速強勁復甦持樂觀態度。
China’s relatively high position in the ranking indicates that, despite the coronavirus wreaking havoc on the country’s economy in the short term, investors were perhaps optimistic for a quick and strong economic recovery during the survey period.
科爾尼大中華區經濟與產業發展主管合伙人王宇指出，「儘管2019年以來，伴隨中美貿易爭端，出現了很多所謂『外資回流』的聲音，但是從全球產業投資者角度，中國依然保持其在FDI領域的重要性。
「Although there have been many voices of capital reshoring along with the trade tensions with the United States since 2019, from the perspective of global investors, China has maintained its importance in the field of FDI. 「 says Jefferson Wang, global partner and head of Kearney Greater China Government & Economic Development Practice.
為應對疫情，中國推出了一系列穩定經濟的措施，比如基礎設施項目的財政援助和企業減稅等，這些都向投資者發出積極信號。
And its economic stimulus efforts—including financial assistance for infrastructure projects and tax reductions for businesses—likely signaled to investors that the country was slowly opening back up for business.
計劃在今年年底籤署的《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》（RCEP）也可能在疫情結束後的幾年裡，有助於加強區域聯繫與合作，促進區域經濟恢復和繁榮。
The planned signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) at the end of the year could also boost connectivity in the years of economic recovery following COVID-19.
此外，2020年1月1日，新《外商投資法》正式生效，確立了新型外商投資法律制度的基本框架，放寬了對外商在華投資的要求，標誌著中國的對外開放已上升到更全面、更高水平的新階段，這將有效提振外資企業的信心。」
Further, a new foreign investment law that came into effect on January 1, 2020 establishes a new legal framework that relaxes requirements for foreign investment in the country— which could signal a 「new era」 for FDI in China. Foreign investors therefore have reasons to be optimistic.」
來源：經濟日報微信公眾號（ID：jjrbwx），圖表由科爾尼提供
記者：外企頭條工作室 陳頤 朱琳
原標題：《外商對中國經濟快速強勁復甦持樂觀態度》
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