本期論壇將由來自波士頓大學的Marshall W. Van Alstyne教授與他的合作者Zhou Zhou一起分享他們的研究——「How Users Drive Platform Value」。隨著數字經濟逐漸成為驅動世界經濟的引擎，秉持網絡效應「先入為主」的主流觀念，傳統的營銷實踐以求在短時間內實現用戶規模的野蠻增長，迅速擴大市場佔有率，達到「贏家通吃」的一邊倒效果。然而，隨著網際網路的激速升級與發展，大量同質化平臺競爭的持續白熱化推進，越來越多的事實表明，隨著流量紅利的消失，消費場景的碎片化呈現，使得傳統營銷效果大打折扣：周期內的網絡效應只產生同期的用戶吸引力，企業獲客成本持續攀升，用戶的生命周期和忠誠度卻在不斷衰減，用戶增長方向的引擎動力也在持續下降。這無疑在提醒著我們，中國的網際網路時代轉到了下半場——行動裝置的普及使得粗暴的營銷攫客方式逐漸成為過去，網際網路的野蠻生長難以復現，而「存量當道」的時代漸漸來臨。至暗時刻回歸用戶核心，存量時代，私域流量才是價值爆發點。本期研討的重點在於當龐大的用戶規模無法維繫與之相匹配的用戶粘性，該如何應用平臺設計產生用戶粘性，實現網絡效應的持續性跨期作用，從而驅動平臺價值。
活動時間：
2020年7月24日 08:45-10:30
線上平臺：
騰訊會議
或VooV meeting 騰訊會議國際版
主講人 Marshall W. Van Alstyne
Marshall W. Van Alstyne is a professor at Boston University and research associate at the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy. He earned a B.A. in computer science from Yale University, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in information systems from the MIT Sloan School of Management.
Professor Van Alstyne is one of the leading experts in network business models. He conducts research on information economics, covering such topics as communications markets, the economics of networks, intellectual property, social effects of technology, and productivity effects of information. As co-developer of the concept of 「two-sided networks」 he has been a major contributor to the theory of network effects, a set of ideas now taught worldwide. His co-authored article on the subject is a Harvard Business Review top 50 of all time.
Zhou Zhou is a doctoral candidate at the Questrom School of Business, Boston University. He studies platform economy, especially platform valuation and the platform’s impact on the economy and society. He is also interested in fintech. Zhou got a bachelor's degree in Financial Management from Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, and expect to get a Ph.D. degree in Information Systems from Questrom School of Business at Boston Unversity in 2021.
How Users Drive Platform Value
Extant research on network markets has popularized the perspective that strong network effects result in 「winner-takes-all」 outcomes. This encourages platforms to grow their user bases and encourages investors to subsidize them. Empirically, however, platforms with large user bases have both succeeded and failed. Central questions for both investors and managers are then: when is a large user base insufficient for 「winner-take-all」 outcomes and how do users drive a platform’s value? To answer these questions, this research develops a novel model of inter-temporal effects and within-period network effects of the user base. The within-period network effects only yield contemporaneous user attraction, while the inter-temporal effects contribute to user stickiness or attraction across periods. Strong within-period network effects that do not persist across periods can stall platform value. Using Groupon data, we empirically measure these two attraction effects on users' participation choices. We leverage panel data to measure the inter-temporal effect of a user base. We identify the contemporaneous cross-side network effect by using instrumental variables that affect only one side of the market but are exogenous to the other side. Our results show that the inter-temporal effect of Groupon's customer base is weak, which causes poor user stickiness and lowers value. Using model parameters, we then compare various intervention strategies to increase platform value. In our context, common marketing practices to buy a customer base reduce platform value while platform design choices that generate stickiness might increase that value. This reminds managers not to overemphasize user acquisition marketing when network effects do not persist and instead focus on platform design.
光華管理學院管理科學與信息系統系副教授，高層管理教育中心執行主任。清華大學碩士、雙學士，美國普渡大學博士。她的研究興趣是運營管理、供應鏈金融。
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管理科學暑期線上系列學術論壇 (Management Science Summer Webinar Series) 由北京大學光華管理學院管理科學與信息系統系主辦，將邀請海內外學界專注OM，IS，AI等多領域的知名專家學者，面向各高校教師、學生、及感興趣的業內和社會人士，就各自的研究領域最新成果進行分享交流。本系列論壇致力於為國內管理科學與信息系統領域的青年學者打造一個探索研究方向、關注現實問題、分享研究心得的知識交流平臺，提供更多學習相關領域研究方法的機會，為推動管理科學學術研究的發展做出努力。