「三胎時代」似乎要來，網友炸開了鍋，一條「專家建議放開三胎」的新聞登上熱搜且居高不下！
為什麼專家建議開放三胎？為什麼「三胎」讓眾多網友熱議？放開三胎對誰有利？
Why do experts suggest opening triplets?Why does "three births" make many netizens hotly discuss? Who's goodfor opening up three children?
目前出生率降低【①】，老齡化【②】加劇，人口結構【③】逐漸失衡，預計到2028年左右，中國人口開始出現負增長。像日本已經是連續11年人口負增長【④】，長遠來看，對一個國家的發展影響是巨大的。數據顯示，近年來我國出生人口連續下降。2017年出生人口為1723萬，2018年為1523萬，2019年為1465萬。
At present, the birth rate has decreased,the aging has intensified, and the population structure is gradually out ofbalance. It is estimated that China's population will begin to show negativegrowth by about 2028. Japan, for example, has been experiencing negativepopulation growth for 11 consecutive years. In the long run, it will have ahuge impact on the development of a country. The data shows that the birth rateof China has been declining in recent years. The number of births was 17.23million in 2017, 15.23 million in 2018 and 14.65 million in 2019.
中國人口報告2020顯示，中國既面臨人口總量即將見頂、遠期將急劇萎縮的總量危機，也面臨人口少子化老齡化日益加劇的結構性危機。
China'spopulation report 2020 shows that China is facing both the total populationcrisis of reaching its peak and rapidly shrinking in the long term, as well asthe structural crisis of an aging population with fewer children.
生詞：
①出生率降低：birth rate has decreased
②老齡化：aging
③人口結構：population structure
④人口負增長：negative population growth（NPG）
據悉，「放開三胎」的觀點是恆大研究院院長、首席經濟學家任澤平提出的，建議在「十四五」時期可從儘快放開三孩開始逐步推進並觀察效果。任先生提出此觀點具有超前的憂民意識，但是這個觀點在如此快速發展的時代真的能站得住腳跟嗎？
It isreported that Ren Zeping, President and chief economist of Evergrande ResearchInstitute, put forward the idea of "letting go of three children". Itis suggested that in the "14th five year plan" period, we shouldstart to gradually release the third child as soon as possible and observe theeffect. Mr. Ren put forward this view with a sense of concern for the peopleahead of time, but can this view really stand up in such a rapid developmentera?
從現狀來看，「放開三胎」似乎難以推行，也難以奏效。現在生孩子已經從舊觀念【①】的「養兒防老」轉變了，舊時養孩子成本低、投入也低，現時不同往昔。
From thecurrent situation, it seems that it is difficult to carry out the "threechild policy" and to work well. Now, having children has changed from theold concept of "raising children to prevent old age". In the olddays, the cost of raising children was low and the investment was low. Now itis different from the past.
生兒容易，養兒難。隨著知識教育水平的提升，孩子的教育也變得重要起來，許多家長為了給孩子一個良好的教育環境而奮鬥大半輩子，但大部分的優質教育資源都集中在中高產階級【②】，這使得資源分配【③】很不平均，也間接勸退了許多想要生育孩子的家長。
It is easier to have children than to raise them. With the improvement of the levelof knowledge and education, children's education has become important. Manyparents strive for a good education environment for their children for most of theirlives. However, most of the high-quality education resources are concentratedin the middle and high-yield classes, which makes the distribution of resourcesuneven, and indirectly dissuades many parents who want to have children.
生詞：
①舊觀念：old ideas
②中高產階級：middle and high yielding class
③資源分配：resource allocation/distribution
同時，年輕人觀念的轉變也是「三胎」站不住腳跟的一大原因。有研究統計了十大「生不動」原因，快來看看你是不是也是這樣想的？
At thesame time, it is also the reason for the change of the concept of "threechildren". Some studies have counted the top ten reasons why you are notmoving. Would you like to see if you think so?
圖片源自《浙江人口結構及其變化趨勢分析》
育齡婦女不打算再生育的原因分布（%）
分析得出，主要原因還是經濟負擔【①】過重，現代化生活節奏快，生活壓力大。年輕人身上背負著房貸、車貸等亂七八糟的貸款【②】，努力工作掙錢，目的就是要減輕自身的壓力。其次，新時代的年輕人有著自己的想法，不想結婚或者結婚後不想要孩子的也大有人在，而且總體呈現一個上升趨勢【③】，大家都偏好自己賺錢自己花，不讓自己有額外的壓力。並且，計劃生育的觀念已經深入當代適婚年輕人的心，他們對於兄弟姐妹的觀念很模糊，認為多個孩子似乎沒有必要。
Theanalysis shows that the main reason is the heavy economic burden, the fast paceof modern life and the great pressure of life. Young people are burdened withmessy loans such as housing loans and car loans. They work hard to earn moneyin order to reduce their own pressure. Secondly, young people in the new erahave their own ideas. There are also many people who don't want to get marriedor don't want children after marriage, and the overall trend is on the rise .We all prefer to make our own money and spend our own money, so as not to letourselves have extra pressure. Moreover, the concept of family planning hasbeen deeply rooted in the hearts of contemporary marriageable young people.They have a vague idea of brothers and sisters and think it is unnecessary tohave more children.
生詞：
①經濟負擔：financial/economic burden
②貸款：loan
③上升趨勢：rising trend
要想提倡生育、放開「三胎」，最有效的辦法還是縮小中國社會收入差距【①】，大力發展經濟，減少失業【②】，讓更多人收入增加並富起來。同時完善社會保障機制，比如養老機制，讓更多人老有所養，沒有後顧之憂。而且，真正讓住房由商品屬性【③】轉變為居住屬性，房價真正回歸到普通民眾能接受的程度，並將教育、醫療等收費降下來；尤其可出臺鼓勵生育的物質激勵措施，比如生育一胎之外的小孩在教育收費、上學就業等方面實行減免優惠或提供幫助。也許只有在這種情勢下，才有可能提高未來更多的生育願意！
The mosteffective way to promote childbearing and to let go of the "threebirths" is to narrow the income gap in China, vigorously develop theeconomy, reduce unemployment, and increase the income of more people. At thesame time, we should improve the social security mechanism, such as the pensionmechanism, so that more people can enjoy their old age and have no worries.What's more, we should really change the property of housing from commodityproperty to residential property, return the house price to a level acceptableto the ordinary people, and reduce the fees for education and medicaltreatment. In particular, we can introduce material incentives to encouragechildbearing, such as giving birth to children other than one child, andoffering concessions or assistance in education fees, schooling and employment.Perhaps only in this situation, it is possible to increase the willingness tohave more children in the future!
生詞：
①縮小收入差距：narrowing the income gap
②減少失業：reduce unemployment
③商品屬性：commodity attribute
對於放開「三胎」，你怎麼看呢？
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