2020年9月1日，駐孟加拉國大使李極明在孟主流英文報紙《每日太陽報》發表《中國良治之文化溯源》隨筆專欄系列文章之三——《新基建》。文章詳細闡釋了中國「新基建」的內涵和特點，介紹了新基建項目的建設模式、投資主體，並重點以5G技術為例對新基建的技術特點、應用場景和發展前景進行了具體說明。文章最後指出，中國的新基建將通過科技創新實現對信息、產品、人員、資本等要素的有機整合和自由流通，打造出一個人類史上前所未見的超大規模一體化市場，為包括孟加拉國在內的世界各國帶來全新的發展機遇。英文原文如下：
New Infrastructure InitiativeThese days, a buzzword "new infrastructure" is gaining traction across China. Amid the increasingly complicated external challenges and uncertainties, in order to offset the economic impact of the pandemic and support its newly-proposed "dual circulation" development pattern, the country launched another innovation-driven initiative - known as the "new infrastructure" construction - as a key policy pillar of its post-pandemic economic recovery, which offers both short-term relief and long-term boost to the economy and industrial upgrading, in hope to catalyse new growth drivers.
What is the New Infrastructure Initiative?When major economies around the world are still stumbling to come up with a response to the economic fallout, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in addressing the Politburo Standing Committee on 4 March, China's top policy-making panel, said that the country will speed up investment in new infrastructure - a sign the government is prioritising this initiative in the post-coronavirus era. In line with it, when Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang delivered his government's annual work report, the new infrastructure initiative was also high up on the agenda.
Then what exactly is this initiative, which is expected to generate trillions of investment over the next five years?The term is not entirely new. It first appeared in December 2018 when consumption and investment together contributed nearly 90 per cent to China's GDP, triggering a genuine surge in the need to expedite China’s industrial upgrading. By the official definition, the new infrastructure projects can be broadly divided into three categories: information-based infrastructure; converged infrastructure supported by applications of new technologies; and innovative infrastructures that support scientific research, technology and product development.
Traditional Vs NewThe country used to be quick to respond with massive investment to shore up growth when facing economic difficulties. Twelve years ago, China unveiled its ever largest fiscal stimulus package to avoid the wrath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, most of which went into traditional infrastructure.
Traditional infrastructure played an important role in expanding domestic demand, increasing employment and stimulating economic growth, but also triggered problems like non-performing loans in the banking industry and excess capacity. Today, traditional infrastructure in China has relatively saturated.
Therefore, this time, instead of a massive infrastructure overhaul, China is seeking more targeted investments in projects that facilitate innovation and social development, dubbed as 「new infrastructure」. The three categories projects mainly focus on seven areas: 5G networks, industrial internet, inter-city transportation and inner-city rail systems, data centres, artificial intelligence, ultra-high voltage power transmission, and new energy vehicle charging stations. The new infrastructure is distinctly different from the old one: more intelligent, more digital, more equivalent to the digital infrastructure, mainly to assist in the upgrading of digitalisation and intelligence, and thereby helping the transformation of the economy.
It means, unlike some of the previous stimulus packages, the new investments are driven by market demand both at home and abroad, and are expected to foster high-quality, sustainable growth and industrial advancement and yield new business formats in the long run.
Why Does 5G Top the List?China's strength in 5G technology has got a global stage show, ironically, from the US suppression of Huawei, one of the leading Chinese 5G providers. In the first quarter of 2020, Chinese cell phone brands have taken the biggest 5G market share of 75 per cent due to their advanced deployment of 5G handsets.
However, current 5G commercial networks are mainly designed around consumer and smart home services, which are far from enough to fulfil the ultimate goal of 5G - enabling machine to machine, business to business applications that call for industry-wide digitalisation. Therefore, in line with the new infrastructure initiative, Chinese telecom carriers have pledged to invest about 1.2 trillion yuan (0.17 trillion USD) in aggregate by 2025, aiming to upgrade their 5G core network and laying down a sound foundation for the wider industrial application of 5G.
The 5G investment is expected to leverage about 3.5 trillion yuan (0.51 trillion USD) of investment in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain as well as in other areas. Moreover, the total economic output indirectly driven by 5G businesses in China is estimated to hit 24.8 trillion yuan (3.6 trillion USD) over the next five years. Among other projects, China could build as many as 600 thousand new 5G base stations in 2020 alone, and is expected to have about 150 million 5G mobile subscribers by the end of this year.
The combination of 5G and industrial internet will be essential to the nation's industrial upgrade. More importantly, the development of 5G networks will be conducive for further advancing new technology industries including online economy, AI, digital economy, and internet financing, which could potentially lead to a multi-trillion dollar new economy.
Examples of New Infrastructure ApplicationsChina now has 141,400 kilometres of operational railway, and 36,000 kilometres of high-speed railways, both the longest in the world. On top of those, China plans to build a railway network of more than 200,000 kilometres by the end of 2035, including about 70,000 kilometres of high-speed tracks. With the help of new infrastructure, further improvement of the operational efficiency of this vast railway network will be made possible. Using BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS, the global navigation satellite system independently constructed and operated by China) and 5G technology, an integrated train control system could be put in place using data collected from both land and space, which will have more accurate positioning, guarantee stronger security, shorten the train tracking interval, and improve transport capacity by more than 30 per cent.
Another example can be the driverless vehicles. China's new infrastructure projects will usher in unprecedented opportunities for fast-track driverless vehicles, and facilitate the commercialisation of self-driving cars and the development of V2X (vehicle-to-everything), a technology that allows vehicles to communicate with the moving parts of the traffic system around them. For the self-driving industry, by actively participating in the new infrastructure project, they can cooperate with policy makers to shape the future roads and highways as well as technical standards for a safe and efficient smart transportation system.
Who Will Foot the Bill?In total, investments in the above-mentioned seven areas could exceed 2 trillion yuan (0.29 trillion USD) this year, according to a report from CITIC Securities, noting that such policy has long existed in the making and the epidemic only helped accelerate the pace. China does not have any obvious debt problem at the central government level, so it would probably not be a serious problem to pay a good part of the bill.
Moreover, there is a tendency in China's local governments to over-invest once a policy was proposed at the central level. Indeed, this time sees no exception: According to incomplete statistics, so far twenty-five provincial-level governments have put new infrastructure projects in their government work reports. And in total they announced nearly 34 trillion yuan (4.9 trillion USD) of investment on major projects this year, with most falling into the 「new infrastructure」 category.
Nevertheless, unlike previous conventional infrastructure programmes, the Chinese government has made it clear this time that the new economic initiative will rely on a more diverse set of players. Private investment will be key and the market will have the biggest say in creating new digital applications. In other words, unlike the stimulus package in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, which centred on state-led investment in traditional infrastructure, this time the government is more dependent on market forces - to convince private technology companies to play along.
The government is also expected to encourage new infrastructure via special bonds, public-private partnerships, and credit support. China's leading broker Guotai Junan Securities estimates that new infrastructure investment will account for about 100 billion yuan (14.2 billion USD) of the country's massive 17-trillion-yuan (around 2.4 trillion USD) Public-Private Partnership projects.
In short, the government, both central and local, and enterprises, both public and private, will pay for the construction of new infrastructure, and public-private partnership (PPP) could be a very important model. Although the investment in new infrastructure projects currently takes up a relatively small portion of the country's overall infrastructure investment, it represents the future. And it is never too early to invest in the future.
Implications for China, Bangladesh and the WorldIf we compare China to a person, the conventional infrastructure would be his bones and muscles, and the new infrastructure the vessels, the neural system and so on. Just like conventional infrastructure, the new infrastructure also facilitates better connection and integration of key factors in an economy, only it does so in a far smarter way with the support of cutting edge technologies and, probably most importantly, that it significantly accelerates the exchange of information in today’s information-based society – in the same way that healthy blood circulation would mean for a person.
China has been the largest trading nation worldwide since 2014, and is likely to overtake the US as the largest consumer market by the end of this year. Once combined with a set of fully developed new infrastructure, it will safely become the most integrated and dynamic single market ever existed in the entire human history, moving around products, human resources, capitals and information of unprecedented scale at unprecedented speed. The prodigality of the business opportunities and the growth potential it will be able to add to the world could only be remotely imagined at this point, let alone all the investment opportunities that will be generated throughout the construction process. What we could say for sure at this moment, though, is that with its sophisticated technology application and innovation, the future Chinese market will be one of the most attractive spots for development partners like Bangladesh to do business with, as well as for the rest of the world to benefit from.