來源：經濟日報
8月5日,國際現貨黃金價格創下2031美元/盎司的歷史新高,2000美元/盎司大關被正式突破。在5個月左右時間裡,金價大漲近600美元/盎司。隨著金價屢創新高,世界黃金協會發布了權威深度分析文章《投資快訊丨金價升至歷史新高:衝刺還是馬拉松?》。請看詳細報導↓↓↓
過去幾年中,黃金在整體上一直呈現出積極的態勢。而全球新冠肺炎疫情的爆發,進一步凸顯了黃金作為對衝工具的作用,並促進了其價格表現的提升。
Gold has been on a generally positive trend for the past few years. However, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has made gold’s relevance as a hedge even more apparent and accelerated its price performance.
黃金價格(美元)在2020年上半年上漲了17%,在7月份繼續攀升了10%。
Gold increased by 17% during the first half of 2020, moving up by an additional 10% in July.
最近的金價變動極快,加之黃金消費需求明顯疲弱,可能導致短期內金價波動性上升。
The most recent price move has come fast, which, combined with markedly weak consumer demand, may result in higher gold price volatility in the near term.
然而我們相信,新冠肺炎疫情可能會給資產配置帶來結構性變化,此外長期看來,也有充足的基本面理由為黃金投資提供支撐。
However, we believe the COVID-19 pandemic may bring structural shifts to asset allocation and that there are strong fundamental reasons supporting gold investment longer term.
再創歷史新高
A new record high
7月28日,黃金價格再創新高,倫敦黃金市場協會(LBMA)黃金下午定盤價達到了1,940.9美元/盎司,並在日內觸及了1,981.3美元/盎司的高位。
Gold broke a new high on 28 July, reaching US$1,940.9/oz
on the LBMA Gold Price PM (PM Price) and topping US$1,981.3/oz intra-day.
這超過了2011年9月5日下午定盤價創下的1,895.0美元/盎司的紀錄,也超過了次日亞洲交易時段1,921.2美元/盎司的日內高點。
This exceeded the previous record of US$1,895.0/oz set by the PM Price on 5 September 2011 and the US$1,921.2/oz intra-day high the following day during Asian trading hours.
面對這一裡程碑,投資者提出了兩個關鍵問題,在此我們將進行探討:
On the heels of this milestone, investors are asking two key questions, which we explore in this report:
這與之前的高點相比有何區別?金價會持續上漲嗎?
How does this compare to previous highs? Is the price rally sustainable?
從歷史上看,我們仍處於周期的早期
Historically early in the cycle
2020年初至今,黃金的表現始終令人矚目。截至7月28日,美元金價上漲了27%,明顯超過了所有主要資產。
Gold’s performance so far in 2020 has been remarkable. As of 28 July, it is up by 27%, significantly outpacing all major assets.
以下因素共同推動了金價的上漲:高度的不確定性,極低的利率,積極的價格勢頭。
This move up has been driven by a combination of: high uncertainty, very low interest rates, and positive price momentum.
而所有這些因素,同時又支撐了黃金的投資需求。但我們有理由相信,我們可能仍處於周期的早期。
All of which are supportive of investment demand. But there are reasons to believe that we may still be early in the cycle.
新冠肺炎疫情遠未結束,更重要的是,其對全球經濟的影響尚未確定。
The COVID-19 pandemic is far from over and, more importantly, its impact on the global economy is yet to be determined.
現有跡象表明,中國、韓國、德國和一些其他歐洲國家的情況已經開始轉好。
There are indications that some countries like China, South Korea, Germany and other European nations have started to turn a corner.
然而在全球層面上,快速復甦的初步希望已蕩然無存。相反,市場參與者正準備迎接坎坷的道路和更長的復甦之路。
However, at a global level, early hopes of a fast recovery are all but gone. Instead, market participants are bracing for a bumpy ride and a longer road to recovery.
各國央行一直在大幅降息,通常還結合了定量寬鬆和其他非傳統的政策措施。各國政府還批准了大規模的救助計劃,以支持本國經濟。而且可能還需要更多措施才能緩解經濟狀況。
Central banks have aggressively cut interest rates, often in combination with quantitative easing and other nontraditional policy measures Governments have also approved massive rescue packages to support their local economies. And much more may be needed.
這些舉措加劇了人們的擔憂:寬鬆的貨幣政策(而非基本面因素)正在推動股市反彈,而所有這些向金融體系注入的額外資金可能會導致非常高的通脹,或至少導致貨幣貶值。
These initiatives have increased concerns that easy money, rather than fundamentals, is fuelling the stock market rally and that all the extra money being pumped into the system may result in very high inflation or, at the very least, currency debasements.
客觀來說,全球金融危機期間,2008年初的金價在900美元/盎司左右,而在仍受金融危機餘波影響的三年後,金價相較該水平上漲了兩倍有餘。
To put things into perspective, the gold price more than doubled from approximately US$900/oz in early 2008 to its high more than three years later in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.
與之形成對比的是,從新冠肺炎疫情爆發到現在,金價只上漲了不到30%。
In contrast, it has increased by just under 30% since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
此外,經通脹調整後,目前的黃金價格其實要比2011年的水平低200美元,也遠低於1980年1月21日的最高紀錄水平,相當於現在的約2,800美元/盎司。
Additionally, adjusted for inflation, the gold price today is～US$200 shy of the 2011 level and well below its 21 January 1980 record high equivalent to approximately US$2,800/oz in today’s money.
實際的黃金價格是根據美國勞工統計局發布的經季節性調整的美國城市消費者價格指數(CPI)城市消費者指數計算得出。
Real gold prices computed using the seasonally adjusted US CPI Urban Consumers Index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
廣泛的投資者基礎
A widespread investor base
從歷史上看,黃金的價格表現與黃金衍生品市場的倉位之間呈正相關。
Historically, there is a positive correlation between gold’s price performance and positioning in the gold derivatives market.
然而根據持倉(COT)報告顯示,今年的大部分時間裡,黃金淨多頭倉位(通常伴隨著更多的投機交易活動)在隨著金價的上漲而下降。
For most of this year, however, net long positions based on the Commitment of Traders (COT) report – usually associated with more speculative trading activity – were falling while the gold price was rising.
這在一定程度上是由於新冠疫情導致黃金市場供應鏈中斷,從而影響了紐約商品交易所(COMEX)期貨。
This was due in part to COVID-19-related supply-side chain dislocations in the gold market affecting COMEX futures.
與之相反的是,年初至今黃金ETF及類似產品的流入量創下歷史新高,截至7月27日,所有地區黃金ETF資產管理總規模共計增加了478億美元。
Conversely, gold-backed ETFs and similar products (gold ETFs) have seen record inflows so far this year, collectively adding US$47.8 billion as of 27 July across all regions.
實例研究表明,主要是買入並持有的投資者促成了這一趨勢,同時也有證據顯示,一些投資者已從黃金期貨轉向黃金ETF。
Anecdotal evidence suggests that buy-and-hold investors are contributing to this, but also that some investors have pivoted from futures to gold ETFs.
這種轉變讓市場更加注意到了兩者的不同,即黃金ETF依託於實物黃金,而黃金期貨既可以用現金交割也可以滾動移倉,僅僅有一小部分進行了實物交割。此外,交易期貨還允許更高的槓桿,這令其波動率進一步抬升。
This shift gives rise to a few notably different dynamics, namely, gold ETFs are backed by physical bullion while futures can be cash settled or rolled, and only a fraction result in physical delivery.
黃金消費需求依舊低迷
Consumer demand remains weak
儘管投資者(尤其是西方市場的投資者)已將黃金視為對衝其投資組合風險的一種手段,但由於疫情對經濟增長的負面影響,加上嚴格的封鎖措施,今年以來的黃金消費需求已大幅下滑。
While investors, especially in Western markets, have embraced gold as a means to hedge their portfolios, consumer demand so far this year has fallen sharply due to the negative effect of the pandemic on economic growth combined with stringent lockdown measures.
正如我們在《黃金需求趨勢》報告中所討論的,今年上半年全球金飾需求驟降46%,金條與金幣投資需求也受到亞洲需求疲弱的拖累下滑了17%。
As we discuss in our Gold Demand Trends report, jewellery demand plummeted by 46% in the first half of the year and bar and coin fell by 17% – mostly driven by Asia.
雖然在短期內,消費者更傾向於充當「價格接受者」而不是「價格制定者」的角色,但從長期來看,黃金消費有助於維持黃金市場的健康發展並影響其價格行為。
And while, in the short term, consumers tend to be more 『price takers』 than 『price makers』, in the longer term, consumption contributes to the health of the gold market and its price behaviour.
黃金的表現已經加速
Gold’s performance has accelerated
2020年黃金牛市的最新階段來得很快。金價從1,650美元/盎司升至1,800美元/盎司花了大約四個月的時間,但不到四個星期金價就漲到了1,950美元/盎司。
The latest leg of gold’s 2020 bull run has come fast. It took approximately four months for gold to go from US$1,650/oz to US$1,800/oz but less than four weeks to climb to approximately US$1,950/oz.
雖然這一上漲在很大程度上是由美元的急劇貶值推動的,但黃金的14天相對強弱指數(RSI) 在7月27日達到了88的高點,突出了這一變化的幅度。
While this uptick was driven in good part by a sharp depreciation of the US dollar, the magnitude of the change is highlighted by gold’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI),which reached a high of 88 on 27 July.
這通常被視為市場可能超買的信號。即便如此,黃金3月期和1年期滾動回報率的變動幅度一直小於2個標準差,明顯低於之前強勁走勢時期的水平。
This is usually seen as a sign that the market could be overbought. That said, gold’s 3-month and 1-year rolling returns have moved by less than two standard deviations and are significantly below levels seen in previous periods of strong movements.
這表明,金價的累計波動幅度並非史無前例。儘管一項資產超過某些相對性能指標是無可避免的,但其增長速度難免也可能導致一段時間內更高的波動性。
This alternative metric suggests that the cumulative magnitude of gold’s move is not unprecedented. Though nothing prevents an asset from outpacing some of these relative performance metrics, the speed of its increase may also result in a period of higher volatility.
過去一個月金價大幅走高,儘管黃金投資獲得了足夠的支撐,但金價可能會經歷一些回調。
Gold has moved sharply higher in the past month and, whilthere is enough support for gold investment, the price may experience some consolidation.
全部圍繞基本面
All about fundamentals
黃金投資需求有充足的理由得到支撐。新冠肺炎疫情展現出的一些空前的特性可能會導致結構性變化,從而支持黃金的長期表現。
There’s a strong case for gold investment demand to be well supported. The unprecedented nature of the COVID19 pandemic may impose structural changes that support gold’s performance in the long term.
但黃金的雙重特性同時也要求需求的周期性部分(如金飾需求或科技用金)保持穩定,以確保其表現的可持續性。
But gold’s dual nature also requires stability in the cyclical portion of demand –such as jewellery or technology – to ensure a sustainable performance.
我們在過去目睹過這種情況。在全球金融危機期間,新興市場迅速反彈,幫助維持了黃金的消費需求。
We have seen this in the past. During the Global Financial Crisis, emerging markets rebounded quickly, which helped maintain consumer demand.
與此同時,發達市場的不確定性水平上升,再加上擴張性的貨幣政策,為黃金的表現提供了良好的支撐。
At the same time, elevated levels of uncertainty in developed markets, combined with expansionary monetary policies,kept gold’s performance well supported.
在中國、德國等一些國家的經濟活動已經開始恢復正常化的同時,美國新冠肺炎病例仍在增加,這對美元產生了負面影響。
Signs that economic activity in some countries such as China or Germany is beginning to normalise contrasting with the acceleration of COVID-19 cases in the US is negatively impacting the US dollar.
而走弱的美元環境,加上不斷膨脹的赤字和擴張性的貨幣政策,讓投資者有充分的理由將黃金納入他們的投資組合。
And a weaker dollar environment, combined with ballooning deficits and expansionary monetary policies, is giving investors good reason to add gold to their portfolios.
從歷史上看,黃金的表現與需求和供應的不同部分之間有著既定的關聯性。而這又會受到四個關鍵因素的影響:經濟擴張、風險和不確定性、機會成本以及勢能。
Historically, there has been an established connection between gold’s performance and the differen segments of demand and supply. These, in turn, are influenced by four key drivers: economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost and momentum.
雖然世界黃金協會不預測黃金價格,但我們的線上分析工具Qaurum可以幫助投資者了解黃金在各種宏觀經濟情景下的表現。
And while the World Gold Council does not forecast the price of gold, our webbased tool Qaurum allows investors to understand how gold may perform under various macro-economic scenarios.