隨著美國各州重新開放經濟，一些地區的新冠肺炎病例重新開始增加。美國傳染病專家安東尼·福奇近日表示，人們一直在談論第二波疫情，但實際上美國第一波疫情尚未結束。
What’s all this talk about a 「second wave」 of US coronavirus cases?
當我們在談論美國「第二波」新冠疫情時，到底在談論什麼？
In The Wall Street Journal last week, Vice President Mike Pence wrote in a piece headlined 「There Isn’t a Coronavirus 『Second Wave'」 that the nation is winning the fight against the virus.
美國副總統邁克·彭斯上周在《華爾街日報》發表了一篇題為《美國不存在「第二波」新冠疫情》的文章稱，美國就要取得抗擊新冠病毒鬥爭的勝利了。
Many public health experts, however, suggest it’s no time to celebrate. About 120,000 Americans have died from the new virus and daily counts of new cases in the US are the highest they』ve been in more than a month, driven by alarming recent increases in the South and West.
然而，許多公共衛生專家認為，現在慶祝還為時尚早。美國已有大約12萬人死於新冠病毒感染，且受南部和西部地區感染病例大幅上升的影響，美國每日新增感染病例數量已達到一個多月以來的新高。
But there is at least one point of agreement: 「Second wave」 is probably the wrong term to describe what’s happening.
但至少有一點是毋庸置疑的：用「第二波」來形容當前的疫情很可能是錯誤的。
「When you have 20,000-plus infections per day, how can you talk about a second wave?」 said Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health. 「We’re in the first wave. Let’s get out of the first wave before you have a second wave.」
美國國家衛生研究院的（國家過敏症和傳染病研究所所長）安東尼·福奇博士說：「當每天有兩萬多感染病例時，你怎麼能說是第二波呢？我們正處於第一波疫情中。讓我們在第二波疫情到來之前先走出第一波疫情吧。」
Clearly there was an initial infection peak in April as cases exploded in New York City. After schools and businesses were closed across the country, the rate of new cases dropped somewhat.
今年4月份，紐約市感染病例激增，美國隨之出現了第一次感染高峰。隨後，全美各地學校和企業關閉，新增病例數量有所下降。
But 「it’s more of a plateau, or a mesa,」 not the trough after a wave, said Caitlin Rivers, a disease researcher at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security.
美國約翰斯·霍普金斯大學健康安全研究中心的疾病研究員凱特琳·裡弗斯說，但是「這更像是一座高原，或是一座平頂山（新增趨於平穩的狀態）」，而不是高峰之後的低谷。
Scientists generally agree the nation is still in its first wave of coronavirus infections, albeit one that’s dipping in some parts of the country while rising in others.
科學家們普遍認為，美國仍處於第一波新冠肺炎疫情之中，儘管一些地區的感染病例正在減少，但另一些地區卻在增加。
「This virus is spreading around the United States and hitting different places with different intensity at different times,」 said Dr. Richard Besser, chief executive of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation who was acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention when a pandemic flu hit the US in 2009.
羅伯特·伍德·詹森基金會執行長理察·貝瑟博士說：「新冠病毒正在美國蔓延，並在不同的時間以不同的強度襲擊不同的地方。」 2009年（甲型H1N1）流感大流行襲擊美國時，他是美國疾病控制和預防中心的代理主任。
Dr. Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan flu expert, echoed that sentiment.
密西根大學流感專家阿諾德·蒙託博士也表達了同樣的觀點。
「What I would call this is continued transmission with flare-ups,」 he said.
他說：「我認為這是伴有突發情況的持續傳播。」
Flu seasons sometimes feature a second wave of infections. But in those cases, the second wave is a distinct new surge in cases from a strain of flu that is different than the strain that caused earlier illnesses.
流感季節有時會出現第二波感染。但在這些病例中，引發第二波病例激增的流感毒株與引起第一波流感的毒株不同。
That’s not the case in the coronavirus epidemic.
新冠肺炎疫情不是這樣的情況。
Monto doesn’t think 「second wave」 really describes what’s happening now, calling it 「totally semantics.」
蒙託不認為「第二波」真正描述了現在的疫情，稱之為「完全語義化」。
Some worry a large wave of coronavirus might occur this fall or winter — after schools reopen, the weather turns colder and less humid, and people huddle inside more. That would follow seasonal patterns seen with flu and other respiratory viruses.
一些人擔心，美國今年秋天或冬天學校開學後，天氣變得更冷，也不那麼潮溼了，人們更多地呆在室內，可能會出現一波嚴重的新冠疫情。這將類似於流感和其他呼吸道病毒的季節性模式。
But the new coronavirus so far has been spreading more episodically and sporadically than flu, and it may not follow the same playbook.
但與流感相比，到目前為止新冠病毒的傳播更具偶然性和散發性，而且它可能不會遵循同樣的規律。
「It’s very difficult to make a prediction,」 Rivers said. 「We don’t know the degree to which this virus is seasonal, if at all.」
裡弗斯說：「人們很難做出預測。就算是，我們也不知道這種病毒在多大程度上是季節性的。」
本文來源：中國日報網 責任編輯： 鄭娟_NQ0738