世界各國政府都在探索數字貨幣的可行性。根據國際清算銀行（BIS）的數據，全球80%的中央銀行已經開始對中央銀行數字貨幣（CBDC）的潛力進行概念化和研究，40%的央行正在構建概念證明（PoC：proofs-of-concept），10%的央行正在部署試點項目。
中國站在最前列，有望發行世界首批中央銀行數字貨幣。中國的主權數字貨幣計劃，被稱為數字貨幣電子支付（DCEP：Digital Currency Electronic Payment），在過去幾個月間已在多個城市啟動了最大規模的實地試驗。到2020年5月，中國官方數字貨幣（本文中又稱數字人民幣digital yuan）的專利申請已經超過120件，超過任何其他國家。
一，中國DCEP的發展現狀如何？
1.實地測試
This April, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC),gave the green light toconduct hypothetical-use tests of the digital yuan in several regions – Xiong』an, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu, and the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games locations. The list will also add Shanghai, Changsha, Hainan, Qingdao, Dalian, and Xi』an in the future, according to Caixin, an influential Chinese news agency.
今年4月，中國央行中國人民銀行（PBOC）批准在幾個地區（雄安、深圳、蘇州、成都和北京2022年冬奧會場館）對數字人民幣進行假設性使用測試。據中國通訊社《財新》報導，這份名單未來還將增加上海、長沙、海南、青島、大連和西安。
China’s private sector is keen to get involved in the DCEP test. The country’s biggest ride-hailing company Didi Chuxing, food delivery giant Meituan Dianping, and streaming platform Bilibili were reported to be joining hands with banks to explore applications of the DCEP.
中國民營企業熱衷於參與數字人民幣測試。據報導，中國最大的叫車服務公司滴滴出行、外賣巨頭美團點評和視頻平臺Bilibili正與銀行聯手探索DCEP的應用。
2.制度建設
Apart from the test trials, the country’s law is also catching up. On October 23, 2020, the PBOC published the revised draft of the People’s Bank of China Law, laying the legal foundation for sovereign digital currency. The draft law proposed that legitimate currency can bedigital currency, giving digital yuan, the same legal status as physical yuan, and any institution or individual must not produce or sell digital tokens to prevent risks associated with virtual currencies.
除了試運行，中國的相關法律也在迎頭趕上。2020年10月23日，中國人民銀行公布了《中國人民銀行法》修訂草案，為主權數字貨幣奠定了法律基礎。法律草案提出，合法貨幣可以是數字貨幣，賦予數字人民幣與實物人民幣同等的法律地位，任何機構和個人不得生產或銷售數字代幣，以防範與虛擬貨幣相關的風險。
二，中國DCEP會如何運行
China’s central bank is responsible forissuing and distributingthe digital yuan to commercial banks. Commercial banks will thenchannelthe digital money to end users. So far, China’s four major state-run banks – China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China – have started large-scale internal testing of the digital RMB wallet.
中國央行負責向商業銀行發行數字人民幣。然後，商業銀行將把數字貨幣輸送給終端用戶。到目前為止，中國四大國有銀行——中國建設銀行、中國銀行、中國工商銀行和中國農業銀行——已經開始對人民幣數字錢包進行大規模的內部測試。
三，數字貨幣對中國社會和企業的可能影響
1. 打擊腐敗，洗錢，逃稅，恐怖分子融資
According to Xinhua, the state media, China’s DCEP will adopt the principle of 「controllable anonymity」. That means, when trading with DCEP, both parties can be anonymous to protect the public’s privacy, but when it comes tocombating corruption, money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorist financing, the state banks can still track the trading information.
據官方媒體新華社報導，中國DCEP將採用「可控匿名」原則。這意味著，在使用DCEP交易時，交易雙方可以匿名，以保護公眾的隱私，但在打擊腐敗、洗錢、逃稅和恐怖分子融資方面，國有銀行仍然可以跟蹤交易信息。
2.控制國家資金或財政補貼流向
The central bank could alsocontrol the flow direction of the state funds or financial subsidies. For example, if it issues the DCEP to a commercial bank for lending to small businesses, it could ensure that the money is activated only once transferred to a small firm.
中央銀行也可以控制國家資金或財政補貼的流向。例如，如果它向一家商業銀行發放數字人民幣，用於向小企業提供貸款，它可以確保這些資金只有在轉移到一家小公司時才被激活。
3.為非常規貨幣政策創造條件
Besides, the DCEP cancreate conditions for unconventional monetary policy. For instance, China might find it easier to make nominal interest rates negative. Normally, when the central bank imposes negative interest rates on bank deposits, residents would withdraw the deposit to avoid capital devaluation. But with the DCEP, negative interest rates could apply to digital cash itself by programming. On the other hand, the central bank could also channel digital cash more directly to residents』 electronic wallets to stimulate the economy.
此外，數字人民幣可以為非常規貨幣政策創造條件。例如，中國可能會發現將名義利率設為負值更容易。正常情況下，當央行對銀行存款實施負利率時，居民會提取存款，以避免資本貶值。但有了DCEP，負利率可以通過編程應用於數字現金本身。另一方面，央行也可以更直接地將數字現金注入居民的電子錢包，以刺激經濟。
4.無需經過以美元為基礎的國際支付系統即可轉移數字貨幣
Internationally, the DCEP may, at some point in the future, help China to be able totransfer digital money across borders without needing to go through a dollar-based international payment system like SWIFT. With the US readier than ever to close the liquidity taps on specific countries or institutions or people, such as via targeted sanctions, China appears to be building its own private trading channels with countries like Russia.
在國際上，DCEP可能會在未來的某個時候，幫助中國在不需要通過像SWIFT這樣以美元為基礎的國際支付系統的情況下跨境轉移數字貨幣。隨著美國比以往任何時候都更傾向於關閉對特定國家、機構或個人的流動性，比如定向制裁，中國似乎正在與俄羅斯等國建立自己的私人貿易渠道。
The Chinese government is yet to confirm a proposed timeline for the roll-out of the digital yuan. But it is all but certain that the DCEP willusherin a new financial era in China. Hi-tech businesses as well as foreign-invested retailers, financial institutions, and mobile app developers in China need to watch its progress closely to track how this will impact their scope of business, affect user behavior, and trigger any risk exposure.
中國政府尚未確認推出數字人民幣的時間表。但可以肯定的是，DCEP將在中國開創一個新的金融時代。中國的高科技企業、外資零售商、金融機構和行動應用程式開發商需要密切關注其進展，以跟蹤這將如何影響其業務範圍、影響用戶行為以及引發任何風險敞口。
本文節選翻譯自：China Briefing
你的點讚，在看和轉發，我都真的當成了喜歡，也是我持續更新的動力。