中國石化新聞網訊 據今日油價12月17日報導，由於市場面臨前所未有的需求損失，石油價格陷入危機，埃克森美孚宣布在南美洲東部海岸蘇利南地區獲得了一系列新發現，這對歐佩克產油國和投資者來說無疑是雪上加霜。但儘管危機不斷，海上石油勘探仍有可能蓬勃發展。在2014-2015年油價暴跌期間，海上石油鑽探是受影響最大的領域之一。海上鑽井公司破產，勘探項目被擱置，員工被解僱，隨後石油公司轉向其他削減成本的方法，比如開發提高鑽井效率的技術解決方案。
距離上次金融危機已經過去五年了，儘管石油需求暴跌對鑽井平臺所有者造成了沉重打擊，但近海鑽井活動仍然非常活躍，而且成本比以往任何時候都低。Rystad Energy的數據顯示，2014年至2018年間，海上石油開發的盈虧平衡成本下降了約30%，目前低於美國頁巖油開發的平均盈虧平衡成本。由於頁巖油是開發成本較高的石油資源之一，這可能說明不了什麼，但它表明了一個清晰的事實，即海上石油開採成本越來越低。
讓人驚訝的是，石油公司正利用這一趨勢，而不是等待著油價風暴過去。就在上周，埃克森美孚宣布在蓋亞那-蘇利南盆地獲得了最新發現。該公司與馬來西亞國家石油公司(Petronas)合作，在蘇利南近海的一個勘探區塊發現了石油和天然氣。
該公司還宣布在蓋亞那的勘探將是其未來優先發展的領域之一，此外還有美國的頁巖油氣勘探、巴西地區的勘探等。在歷史上最嚴重的油價危機爆發之際，這種調整非常重要，意味著該行業將真正專注於盈利能力最強的業務部門。埃克森美孚並不是唯一一家在疫情期間大力押注海上勘探的公司。巴西國家石油公司在11月份表示，該公司計劃在未來五年將重點放在深水資源的勘探和生產上，同時還宣布下調這一時期的支出計劃。
這家巴西巨頭在一份文件中表示，未來五年將支出550億美元，其中，84%將用於勘探和生產，且其中大部分項目位於多產的鹽下地區，據估計，鹽下地區蘊藏著數十億桶未發現的石油資源。巴西石油公司還計劃將業務擴展到蓋亞那地區。值得注意的是，這一計劃目前尚處於試探性階段的原因是巴西的監管阻礙。然而，蓋亞那的海上石油開發潛力不可能被忽視，巴西與蓋亞那的北部地區擁有相近的海上地質條件。
巴國油執行長Roberto Castello Blanco在最近的一次行業會議上表示：「我們在巴西北部有巨大的石油開發潛力，但我們被拒之門外。與此同時，蓋亞那正在利用這一機會。」
與此同時，儘管需求持續下滑，但挪國油Equinor在北海Johan Sverdrup油田的日產量超過40萬桶，截至上月已接近50萬桶。這家挪威公司還提高了Snorre油田的產量，增加了2億桶可採儲量，並將該油田的使用壽命延長到2040年。事實上，挪國油正在與自然損耗和石油新發現的減少作鬥爭。在國內外石油需求下降的背景下，海上勘探活動的發展提振了石油產量，不過，市場預計這種需求下降將持續下去。
美國也在鼓勵更多的近海鑽探，美國安全和環境執法局(Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement)本月初表示，將向提高資產產能的海上油田運營商許可較低的特許權使用費。其目標是最大限度地提高這些油田的產能。值得注意的是，石油需求暴跌，油價也隨之暴跌。
傳統上，海上石油是成本最高的石油生產領域之一，但它通過延長資產生產壽命來彌補了不足。然而，石油和天然氣的開採成本一直在下降，這包括海上石油的開採。根據Rystad Energy的數據，迄今為止，深水石油是世界上第二便宜的石油，僅次於中東陸上石油，後者的盈虧平衡價格約為每桶30美元。深水石油的平均盈虧平衡價格是43美元/桶。
這是一個好消息，因為世界上大部分尚未開發的石油儲量都位於近海地區，儘管對需求的預測較為悲觀，但許多人認為，未來幾十年，世界將繼續需要數千萬桶石油，而這幾千萬桶原油，即使沒有大部分也有會有比較多的石油將來自近海油田。
王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
原文如下：
Offshore Oil’s Dramatic Comeback
Smack dab in the middle of an oil price crisis caused by an unprecedented demand loss, Exxon announced the latest in a string of discoveries off the eastern South American shore, this time in Suriname. It must have felt like adding insult to injury for OPEC producers and reckless behavior for investors, but offshore oil may yet thrive despite the crisis. During the 2014-2015 oil price collapse, offshore oil drilling was one of the most affected areas. Offshore drilling companies went bankrupt, exploration projects were shelved, and staff was laid off. And then oil companies turned to other ways of cutting costs, such as developing technological solutions that boosted drilling efficiency.
Five years after the last crisis, despite a heavy blow to rig owners from the slump in oil demand, offshore drilling is very much alive and cheaper than ever. According to Rystad Energy, the breakeven cost of offshore oil fell by about 30 percent between 2014 and 2018 and is now lower than the average breakeven for U.S. shale oil. That may not be saying a lot since shale is among the higher-cost oil resources, but it is saying something loud and clear: offshore oil is getting cheaper to extract.
It may be surprising that oil companies are taking advantage of this trend instead of lying low and waiting for the price storm to pass. Exxon announced its latest discovery in the Guyana-Suriname Basin just last week. Together with Malaysia’s Petronas, the supermajor discovered oil and gas in an exploration block offshore Suriname.
The company also announced Guyana exploration will be among its priority areas going forward, along with U.S. shale, exploration in Brazil, and chemicals. This re-prioritization is important as it comes amid the worst oil price crisis in history, meaning the industry is really focusing on the most profitable business divisions. Exxon is not the only one betting strongly on offshore exploration amid the pandemic. Brazil’s Petrobras is planning a focus on deepwater exploration and production for the next five years, the company said last month, when it also announced a downward revision to its spending program for the period.
The Brazilian major said in a filing that it will spend $55 billion over the next five years, down by 27 percent in 2019. Of the total, 84 percent would go towards exploration and production, most of it in the prolific pre-salt zone, which is estimated to hold billions of barrels of undiscovered oil.
And this is not all: Petrobras has plans to expand into Guyana. In all fairness, the reason for this plan—tentative for the time being—is regulatory hurdles in Brazil. Yet Guyana’s offshore potential could not have passed unnoticed by the state oil company of the tiny nation’s huge neighbor, which shares offshore geology with it in the north.
「We have (in northern Brazil) the potential for a great oil basin and we’re barred. At the same time, Guyana is taking advantage of the situation,」 Petrobras』 chief executive Roberto Castello Blanco said at a recent industry conference as quoted by Reuters.
Meanwhile, in the North Sea, Equinor is pumping more than 400,000 bpd from the Johan Sverdrup field, nearing 500,000 bpd as of last month, despite the continued demand slump. The Norwegian company is also boosting production at the Snorre field, unlocking an additional 200 million barrels of recoverable reserves and extending the field’s life to 2040. Indeed, Equinor is fighting natural depletion and fewer new discoveries. But it is boosting production amid lower demand for oil both domestically and internationally, and forecasts for the chronification of this lower demand.
The United States is also encouraging more offshore drilling, at least for another month, until the administration changes. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement earlier this month said it would award lower royalties to offshore field operators that invest in boosting the capacity of their assets. The aim: boosting these fields』 capacity to the maximum. Again, despite the oil demand slump and the oil price slump that followed it.
Offshore has traditionally been among the highest-cost oil production segments, but it has made up for this with long productive asset life. Yet cost trends in oil and gas have been consistently downward, and they have not excluded offshore oil. To date, according to Rystad Energy, deepwater oil is the second-cheapest in the world, after onshore Middle Eastern oil, whose breakeven price is around $30 per barrel. The average breakeven price for deepwater oil is $43 a barrel.
This is good news because most of the untapped oil reserves in the world are located offshore, and despite pessimistic demand forecast, many believe the world will continue needing dozens of millions of barrels of oil in the decades to come. Many, if not most, of these dozens of millions of barrels will be coming from offshore fields.