Identify Study of Earthquake Prediction & Volcano Prediction

Identify Study of Earthquake Prediction & Volcano Prediction

Lijun Chen

The global earthquake focal depth data from 1963 to 2010 shows, the focal depth of more than 630 km is only 6 places such as Chile, Okhotsk Sea, Philippines, Indonesia, Solomon and Tonga. Focal depth is between 550 km to 630 km only 4 places such as Japan sea, Marianas trench, Jilin in China and west exit of the Mediterranean. Maximum focal depth is between 250 km to 380 km only 7 places such as Guatemala, Haiti, Bering sea, Taiwan and Ryukyu，Hindu kush, Mediterranean and South Sandwich Trench. Also, the maximum focal depth is between 180 km to 250 km in Burma. All add up to 18 centres or strips of deep source seismic activity. The upper seismic activity of these centres just like a tree or a fanlike arrangement, and stretches open along the island arcs or trench nearby the surface. The author has defined the special point as Seismic Cone (see http://blog.sina.com.cn/seisman), top 10 may be defined as Super Seismic Cones.

According to the Seismo-Geothermics (Chen Lijun, 2000, Seismology and Geology), the earthquake at bottom of seismic mantle plume just like an "engine", constitute the active layer of certain depth mantle by way of rapid migration of heat energy or critical boiling of mantle material. Mid-depth source earthquake release does not dissipate, can only transfer to upper mantle layer, i. e energy-storage layer. Energy storage layer will be stored energy or transfer upward step by step with a gradual release. Arrived near-surface, the earth's crust dissipative layer will be spread, and the releases of stored bottom energy will be accrued by way of volcanic eruption, or by way of rupture, dislocation or plastic deformation, etc, along with the existing fragile generated structures, and will be dissipated exhaustedly with the energy form change of heat energy into mainly mechanical energy.

A simple boiled water testing can be roughly simulated the working mechanism of a seismic cone. A beaker of water placed above the plane heat source. When the temperature is appropriate, the bubbles appear and burst immediately on the cup bottom. With increased water temperatures the bubbles rise and burst ceaselessly, the water surface is gradually deformation. When bubbles can rise close to the water surface, it is into "Xiangshui doesn't boil" stage, and then is boiled. Earthquake prediction and volcano prediction is looking for the timing of "Xiangshui doesn't boil".

Indonesia is an ideal place of earthquake prediction and volcano prediction research to its earthquake frequent and volcanic activity. Statistical of the relationship of crust earthquakes and volcanoes with mid-depth source earthquakes in Indonesia, found below phenomenon:

1) By the statistics of 70 volcanic eruptions of index VEI = 1 and above since 2000 in Indonesia, there were many earthquakes magnitude 5 and above almost every volcano eruption in or before 1 ~ 3 months(table limited, to see the blog of Seisman);

2) When appearing a series of deep source seismic activity magnitude 5 and above does to trigger the eruptions of one or more volcanoes (Example Table 1);

3) If deep earthquake magnitude 7 and above accrued it could trigger volcanic eruption and strong crust earthquake magnitude 8 and above (Table 2).

In the Seismo-Geothermic, volcano and mid-depth source earthquake are homologous. The volcano is heat release rushed to the surface, and the mid-depth source earthquake is heat transfer but does not reach the surface.

In this sense, the relationship study of volcano and mid-depth source earthquake may be able to find new ways of the volcano prediction and earthquake prediction.

Hereby thanks to page web http://www.ncedc.org/anss/  for ANSS earthquake catalogue, and to page web http://www.volcano.si.edu/  for GVP monthly volcanic Bulletin.

（The 2d draft, 2011.3.16）

See：http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-552558-423131.html

Table 1

Table 2

試論地震預測與火山預測的同一性

Seisman

全球地震震源深度1963～2010年的資料顯示，震源深度大於630km的只有智利、鄂霍次克海、菲律賓、印度尼西亞、所羅門、湯加等6處；震源深度介於550～630km的只有日本海、馬裡亞納海溝、中國吉林和地中海西端出海口等4處；最大震源深度介於250～380km的只有瓜地馬拉、白令海、臺灣及琉球、興都庫什、地中海和南桑維奇海溝等6處；緬甸的最大震源深度介於180～250km。以上共計17個中、深源地震活動中心或條帶。這些中、深源地震中心上層的地震活動，多呈樹狀或扇狀排列，近地表則沿著島弧或海溝舒展開去。作者將這些特殊的點定義為地震地幔柱（見blog.sina.com.cn/seisman），前10個可定義為超級地震地幔柱。

按照地震地熱說的解釋（陳立軍，2000，地震地質），地震地幔柱底部的地震相當於「熱機」，構成地幔一定深度的能動層，以快速運移或者暴沸的方式爆發深源地震。深源地震所釋放的能量無法耗散，只能轉移給上面的中間低溫層——儲能層。儲能層將能量或者加以存儲，或者以漸進式的釋放將能量逐層向上轉移。到達近地表，地殼內的耗散層將底部能量加以擴散，或者以火山的形式噴發，或者沿著已有的脆弱構造產生破裂、錯動以及塑性變形等，將熱能轉化為以機械能為主的能量形式耗散殆盡。

一個簡易的開水試驗可以大致模擬地震地幔柱的工作機理。燒杯注水，置於平面熱源之上。當溫度適當時，杯底出現氣泡，隨即破裂。隨著水溫升高，氣泡不斷地上升—破裂，水面漸漸變形。當氣泡能夠上升到近水面時進入「響水不開」階段，隨後即沸騰了。地震預測和火山預測就是要尋找「響水不開」的時機。

印度尼西亞地震頻發，火山活躍，是研究地震預測和火山預測的理想之地。統計印度尼西亞的殼內強震、火山與中、深源地震的關係，發現如下現象：

1） 統計2000年以來70次火山噴發指數VEI＝1以上的火山噴發，幾乎每一次火山噴發前1～3個月內都有5級以上的中、深源地震活動（表略,見seisman的博客）；

2） 當出現一系列5級以上的中、深源地震活動後，會引發一個或多個火山的噴發（例表1）；

3） 當發生7級以上的深源地震後，有可能引發火山噴發和殼內8級以上的強震活動（表2）。

在地震地熱說範疇內，火山與中、深源地震是同源的。火山是衝出到地表的熱能釋放，中、深源地震則是未能到達地表的熱能轉移。從這個意義上來說，地震預測與火山預測具有同一性。

本文所採用的地震資料取自http://www.ncedc.org/ 網頁的ANSS地震目錄，火山資料取自http://www.volcano.si.edu/網頁的GVP火山月報，謹此致謝。

（2011.2.25 初稿）