▲ 作者：Matthew Graham、Amy K. Winter、Matthew Ferrari、Bryan Grenfell，et al
▲ 連結：
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6440/584
▲ 摘要：
麻疹是一個高度傳染且危險的疾病；儘管存在高度有效的疫苗接種措施，但在全球各地一直難以消滅麻疹。
世界衛生組織已經設定了頗具雄心的目標：要在2020年時在所有6個麻疹流行區域中消滅麻疹。
研究人員用全球1980~2017年的麻疹發病率數據和疫苗接種活動對世界各地的麻疹動態模式進行了評估。
總體而言，各國的麻疹疫情規模與頻度皆經歷了可預測的變化。
他們介紹了一種在各國中通常遵循的「規範路徑」：在開始時期的疾病發病率很高，接著會因為疫苗接種率的提高，而令疾病發生率急劇下降，但在最終消滅麻疹時期到來之前，麻疹疫情會在隨後的多年中有著逐年增高的變化。
通過觀察麻疹疫情在該總體的典型軌跡上所處的位置，各國能知道其人口麻疹敏感性的潛在分布年齡，這能幫助各國有目標地實行控制措施。
▲ Abstract
All World Health Organization regions have set measles elimination goals. We find that as countries progress toward these goals, they undergo predictable changes in the size and frequency of measles outbreaks. Acountry’s position on this 「canonical path」 is driven by both measles control activities and demographic factors, which combine to change the effective size of the measles-susceptible population, thereby driving the country through theoretically established dynamic regimes. Further, position on the path to elimination provides critical information for guiding vaccination efforts, suchas the age profile of susceptibility, that could only otherwise be obtained through costly field studies or sophisticated analysis. Equipped with this information, countries can gain insight into their current and future measles epidemiology and select appropriate strategies to more quickly achieve elimination goals.