本期【期刊跟蹤】選取了與災害、生態相關的9篇文章，分別來自Nature Communications、Ecological Indicators、Science of the Total Environment、International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health、生態學報等5個期刊。
1. New insights into US flood vulnerability revealed from flood insurance big data
作者： Oliver E. J. Wing, Nicholas Pinter, Paul D. Bates & Carolyn Kousky
期刊：Nature Communications
摘要：Improvements in modelling power and input data have vastly improved the precision of physical flood models, but translation into economic outputs requires depth–damage functions that are inadequately verified. In particular, flood damage is widely assumed to increase monotonically with water depth. Here, we assess flood vulnerability in the US using >2 million claims from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). NFIP claims data are messy, but the size of the dataset provides powerful empirical tests of damage patterns and modelling approaches. We show that current depth–damage functions consist of disparate relationships that match poorly with observations. Observed flood losses are not monotonic functions of depth, but instead better follow a beta function, with bimodal distributions for different water depths. Uncertainty in flood losses has been called the main bottleneck in flood risk studies, an obstacle that may be remedied using large-scale empirical flood damage data.
Fig. 1: Comparison of NFIP-derived and US federal depth–damage relationships.
引用格式：Wing, O.E.J., Pinter, N., Bates, P.D., Kousky, C., 2020. New insights into US flood vulnerability revealed from flood insurance big data. Nature Communications 11, 1–10.
2. 近17年新疆乾旱時空分布特徵及影響因素
作者：黃靜,張運,汪明秀,王芳,湯志,何好
期刊：生態學報
摘要：新疆是我國西北區重要的糧食和商品棉生產基地，受地理環境的影響，乾旱頻發，給社會經濟及農業生產造成了巨大的損 失。基於 MODIS 遙感數據和氣象數據，估算溫度植被乾旱指數( Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index，TVDI) ，分析新疆 2000—2016 年乾旱的年際、年內時空變化特徵及其與氣象因子的關係，結果表明: 1) TVDI 可以有效地描述新疆的乾旱狀況，適用於對 該地區進行乾旱監測; 2) 2000—2016 年間新疆 TVDI 空間分布具有較強的地域分異性，呈現為天山山脈以北及崑崙山脈地區較溼潤，塔裡木盆地地區較乾旱，新疆TVDI 多年均值為0.751，整體上處於中旱狀態。年內 TVDI 季節空間分布差異顯著，不同季 節的乾旱程度大小為: 夏季＞春季＞秋季＞冬季; 3) 新疆各地州TVDI 年內月變化整體上呈現為先增加後降低的趨勢，最小值在1月(0.267) ，最大值在 6 月(0.930) ，在 14個地州中，伊犁哈薩克、阿勒泰和博爾塔拉多年間基本處於無旱狀態; 4) 17年間不同土 地利用類型乾旱程度表現為林地＜草地＜建築用地＜耕地，乾旱類型轉移的主要特點為無旱類型轉入和輕旱類型、中旱類型、重 旱類型、特旱類型轉出; 5) 新疆乾旱動態變化與地形、氣溫、降雨量以及太陽輻射等因子密切相關，其中非氣象因子影響所佔比例最大，降雨量與氣溫綜合影響佔面積較小，氣象因子中降雨量影響所佔面積較大，因此,在氣象因子中新疆乾旱主要受降雨的影響。
引用格式：黃靜,張運,汪明秀,王芳,湯志,何好.近17年新疆乾旱時空分布特徵及影響因素[J].生態學報,2020,40(03):1077-1088.
1. Assessing and predicting changes in ecosystem service values based on land use/cover change in the Bohai Rim coastal zone
作者：Liu Yubin, Hou Xiyong, Li Xiaowei, et al.
期刊：Ecological Indicators
摘要：Land use/cover change (LUCC) in the Bohai Rim coastal zone has accelerated as a result of rampant economic development, which has directly caused many negative effects on ecosystem functions and services. Based on multi-temporal land use data (2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015), the benefit transfer method was used to assess the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the Bohai Rim coastal zone, and the impact of LUCC on ecosystem services was studied. Multi-scenario simulations for 2025 were conducted using the future land use simulation model. The result of the analysis showed that during the period from 2000 to 2015, the total ESV lost was 22.09 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 3.80%. The spatial distribution of the ESV showed a certain regularity, with obvious characteristics of a land-sea gradient change. As the distance from the coastline increased, the ESV per unit area gradually declined. Compared with those in 2015, the total ESVs of the socio-economic development scenario and the business-as-usual scenario in 2025 showed a declining trend, while they increased under the ecological protection priority scenario. Under the ecological protection priority scenario, regulating services and support services increased significantly, but those declined dramatically under the socio-economic development scenario. The patterns of LUCC are the main reasons for the decrease in ESV. This research provides a theoretical basis and support for the development and utilization of coastal space and the improvement of 「ecological economic-social」 benefits; additionally, the results provide support for scientific decision-making services for the sustainable use of resources in the coastal zone and for the sustainable management of ecosystems.
引用格式：Liu Yubin, Hou Xiyong, Li Xiaowei, Song Baiyuan, & Wang Chao. (2020). Assessing and predicting changes in ecosystem service values based on land use/cover change in the Bohai Rim coastal zone. Ecological Indicators, 111, 106004.
2. Modeling ESV losses caused by urban expansion using cellular automata and geographically weighted regression
作者：Chen Shurui, Feng Yongjiu, Tong Xiaohua, et al
期刊：Science of the Total Environment
摘要：Driven by increasing urban demand, spatially-varying urban expansion has led to significant ecosystem degradation in China and elsewhere. Spatial nonstationarity affects the relationship between urban expansion and ecosystem service value (ESV) loss, but its significance has been under-emphasized. To study the spatially-heterogeneous ESV loss, we integrated cellular automata (CA) with geographically weighted regression (GWR) in a model that considers the relationships between urban expansion and its driving factors. We used ten GWR bandwidths to construct the CAGWR models for reproducing rapid urban expansion at Chongqing from 2005 to 2010. We then used the CAGWR model with the best bandwidth to predict future urban scenarios out to 2030. Our modeling shows that CAGWR is strongly sensitive to bandwidth, and that the overall accuracy and Figure-of-Merit are maximized with a ~2 km2 bandwidth (about 150 samples). We examined ESV losses in eleven ecosystem classes and found that climate regulation and water flow regulation are the dominant drivers of ESV loss. From 2010 to 2030, Chongqing's urban area will increase by about 87%, resulting in substantial encroachment on agricultural land, dryland and shrubs, causing significant ESV losses of about 38%. Our results constitute an early warning of ecosystem degradation caused by massive urban development. This study improves our understanding of spatially-varying urban expansion and related ESV losses in rapidly developing areas and should help improve urban planning regulation and regional policy for sustainable development to maintain environmentally-friendly cities.
引用格式：Chen Shurui, Feng Yongjiu, Tong Xiaohua, et al. (2020). Modeling ESV losses caused by urban expansion using cellular automata and geographically weighted regression. Science of the Total Environment, 712, 136509.
3. Projections of future land use changes: Multiple scenarios-based impacts analysis on ecosystem services for Wuhan city, China
作者：Wang Ying, Li Xiangmei, Zhang Qi, et al.
期刊：Ecological Indicators
摘要：Urbanization alters the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. The loss of ecosystem services is particularly challenging in rapid urbanization areas where economic development needs to consume substantial natural resources. The quantitative and spatial optimization of land use provides an effective tool for rationally allocating land use structure and pattern to ensure the provision of expected ecosystem services. In this paper, we combine the Multi-Objective Programming and the Dyna-CLUE model to project land use changes in 2030 for Wuhan city under three scenarios, i.e., Business As Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Development (RED), and Ecological Land Protection (ELP). The coupled model that integrates 「top-down」 and 「bottom-up」 processes is capable of obtaining the optimized land use patterns under different scenarios and examining the potential impacts of land use changes on ecosystem services in a spatially explicit way. We find that built-up land will continue its remarkable growth during 2015-2030 under the BAU scenario (grows by 96%) at the expense of ecological lands (decreases by 18%). Meanwhile, the predicted losses of ecological lands are 11% and 6% under the RED and ELP scenarios, respectively. Projected land use changes result in varying magnitudes of declines in ecosystem service values for BAU (11%), RED (6%) and ELP (2%) scenarios from 2015 to 2030. The ELP scenario, which incorporates ecological protection policies and spatial restrictions, plays a positive role in altering land use trends and mitigating ecosystem degradation. Finally, we establish an ecosystem service value change matrix to explain how interactions between land use types give rise to trade-offs among multiple ecosystem services. We find that conversions between ecological land use types can trigger trade-offs among ecosystem services, but the conversion from ecological lands towards urban land leads to a net loss of all individual ecosystem services. By linking land and ecological systems, the coupled modeling framework in this study can be useful for obtaining optimal ecosystem-based land use allocation strategies and provide scientific support for sustainable land use management.
引用格式：Wang Ying, Li Xiangmei, Zhang Qi, Li Jiangfeng, & Zhou Xuewu. (2018). Projections of future land use changes: Multiple scenarios-based impacts analysis on ecosystem services for Wuhan city, China. Ecological Indicators, 94, 430–445.
4. Land use and land cover change in the qinghai lake region of the tibetan plateau and its impact on ecosystem services
作者：Gong Jian, Li Jingye, Yang Jianxin,et al
期刊：International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
摘要：Exploration of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and its impacts on ecosystem services in Tibetan plateau is valuable for landscape and environmental conservation. In this study, we conduct spatial analysis on empirical land use and land cover data in the Qinghai Lake region for 1990, 2000, and 2010 and simulate land cover patterns for 2020. We then evaluate the impacts of LULCC on ecosystem service value (ESV), and analyze the sensitivity of ESV to LULCC to identify the ecologically sensitive area. Our results indicate that, from 1990 to 2010, the area of forest and grassland increased while the area of unused land decreased. Simulation results suggest that the area of grassland and forest will continue to increase and the area of cropland and unused land will decrease for 2010–2020. The ESV in the study area increased from 694.50 billion Yuan in 1990 to 714.28 billion Yuan in 2000, and to 696.72 billion Yuan in 2020. Hydrology regulation and waste treatment are the top two ecosystem services in this region. The towns surrounding the Qinghai Lake have high ESVs, especially in the north of the Qinghai Lake. The towns with high ESV sensitivity to LULCC are located in the northwest, while the towns in the north of the Qinghai Lake experienced substantial increase in sensitivity index from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020, especially for three regulation services and aesthetic landscape provision services.
引用格式：Gong Jian, Li Jingye, Yang Jianxin, et al. (2017). Land use and land cover change in the qinghai lake region of the Tibetan plateau and its impact on ecosystem services. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14(7).
5. Quantifying and mapping the responses of selected ecosystem services to projected land use changes
作者：Lang Yanqing, Song Wei
期刊：Ecological Indicators
摘要：Land use connects social and economic activities with ecological processes and influences ecosystem services. Research into the variation of substance quantity or value quantity in ecosystem services undergoing land use change has recently gained considerable attention. However, few efforts have quantified and mapped the responses of ecosystem services to projected land use change. In view of this, we propose an index that can quantitatively evaluate the degree of variation in ecosystem services caused by land use change. Based on this index, we evaluate the degrees of influence of four different scenarios of land use change (a reference scenario, rapid urbanization scenario, ecological security scenario, and cultivated land protection scenario) on ecosystem services in China’s karst mountains. The results indicate that from 2010 −2030, land use change under the ecological security and rapid urbanization scenarios significantly affects ecosystem services, with indices of 2.04 and −6.99, respectively. These indices mean that a 1% change in land use will cause the ecosystem services index to vary by 2.04% and −6.99% under the ecological security and rapid urbanization scenarios, respectively. Thus, we infer that under the ecological security scenario, land use change positively affects ecosystem services, while under the rapid urbanization scenario, ecosystem services are negatively affected by land use change. Land use changes under the ecological security scenario are thus conducive to the sustainable development of ecosystem services in the karst mountains.
引用格式：Lang Yanqing, Song Wei. (2019). Quantifying and mapping the responses of selected ecosystem services to projected land use changes. Ecological Indicators, 102, 186–198.
6. A comparative analysis of urban impervious surface and green space and their dynamics among 318 different size cities in China in the past 25 years
作者：Yinyin Dou, Wenhui Kuang
期刊：Science of the Total Environment
摘要：Urban impervious surface (UIS) and urban green space (UGS) fractions in a city are essential indicators in supporting urban planning and management. However, little is known about the dynamics of urban expansion and the resultant UIS/UGS fraction in different size cities in China over time. We comparatively analyzed the urban expansion, UIS/UGS, and their dynamics among 318 different size cities during 1990–2015 derived from the China Land Use/cover Datasets (CLUDs) and the UIS/UGS datasets. The results indicate that the urban expansion area for the 318 cities increased by 2.32 × 104 km2 during 1990–2015, with an average growth percentage of 4.37%. Megacities experienced dramatic expansion between 1990 and 2000, and the urban expansion of large and medium cities increased rapidly in the following decade. During 2010–2015, the urban expansion of small cities notably increased. Meanwhile, the proportion of the UIS fraction in newly expanded urban land continuously decreased during 1990–2015. Compared to the other three size cities, the proportion of the UGS fraction in megacities was the highest (24.55%) in 1990 and then increased (27.99–31.97%) in newly expanded urban land during 1990–2015 due to ecological construction. Thus, more attention should be paid to the dynamics of urban expansion, especially in small cities. The proportions of UGS in large, medium, and small cities are relatively low, and urban environment needs to be improved for greenness and livability in the future.
引用格式：Dou Y, Kuang W. (2020). A comparative analysis of urban impervious surface and green space and their dynamics among 318 different size cities in China in the past 25 years. Science of the Total Environment, 706, 135828.
7. Effect of increasing of water level during the middle of dry season on landscape pattern of the two largest freshwater lakes of China
作者：Haipeng Wu, Xuyue Hu, Shiquan Sun, Juan Dai, Shujing Ye, Chunyan Du, Hong Chen, Guanlong Yu, Lu Zhou, Jing Chen
期刊：Ecological Indicators
摘要：The hydrologic conditions of global wetlands are dramatically changed, and its ecological responses attract the great attention around the world. In recent decades, the water level of the middle of dry season had a tendency of significant increase in Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake (DL and PL, the two largest freshwater lake of China). Landscape pattern is sensitive to the local environmental changes and anthropogenic activity, and could influence the progresses and function of ecosystems. In this study, the landscape pattern between middle of dry season with increased water level (DIW) and that with normal water level (DNW) were compared to reveal the influence of the increasing of water level during the middle of dry season on landscape pattern of DL and PL. The results revealed that the increasing of water level during the middle of dry season caused expanding of deep water (cover increased from 14.40% to 18.36% of the total lake) to shallow water zone and expanding of shallow water (from 6.41% to 10.12%) to mudflat zone in DL; while it caused expanding of deep water (from 24.17% to 46.00%) to shallow water, sand, mudflat and grass zone and expanding of shallow water (from 12.18% to 19.51%) to sand, mudflat and grass zone in PL. In landscape metrics, it caused significant increase of the LPI in PL. In class metrics, it caused the some significant changes of landscape pattern indices (such as TA, LPI, MPS, AMPFDI, MNN and IJI) of the lakes. It had greater effects on the landscape pattern of PL than that of DL. And these changes of landscape pattern would affect birds, fish and mammals.
引用格式：Wu H, Hu X, Sun S, et al. (2020). Effect of increasing of water level during the middle of dry season on landscape pattern of the two largest freshwater lakes of China. Ecological Indicators, 113, 135828.
供稿 / 賈凱、鄧越、彭凱鋒、荔琢、王曉雅
蔣梓傑、王春林、鄧雅文
指導 / 蔣衛國 製作 / 荔琢
跟蹤和發布生態環境、生態系統、生態水文、溼地生態、水資源、洪水災害、溼地資源、城市生態、城市溼地、海綿城市等方向的國內外學術研究進展、遙感和空間信息技術應用前沿資訊。
生態水文遙感前沿
微信號 : gh_f2514dbfc97d
聯繫方式：jiangweiguo@bnu.edu.cn