Why Britain has so many covid-19 deaths?
為什麼新冠肺炎帶走了這麼多英國公民的生命？
Britain faces a worse pandemic than other European countries. That seems partly the government’s fault, but not entirely.
英國新冠肺炎疫情比其他歐洲國家更為嚴重，英國政府難逃罪責，但不能完全歸咎於政府。
face a worse pandemic than other countries 疫情較其他國家更為嚴重
Something is partly someone’s fault, but not entirely. 雖然有錯，但並不承擔全責
On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst – if not the worst – affected country in Europe.
在大多數的政治、經濟和社會問題上，歐洲總是分為南北兩派，而英國往往正是效率高、秩序井然且經濟發達的北派國家之一。然而，在新冠肺炎疫情的應對上，英國和自己的往常身份截然相反。英國怎麼看都像是遭受疫情重創的南歐國家。英國政府顧問委員會成員傑裡米·法拉爾爵士表示，英國預計將成為歐洲受疫情影響最嚴重的國家之一。
「政治/經濟/社會問題」的「問題」用「issue」；
「divide」可以直接用作主動語態，而無需寫作「Europe is divided into…」；
badly hit southern European countries 遭受重創的南歐各國
advisory council 顧問委員會
be on track to be 正在成為
Growth in the number of cases in Britain is now slowing, but as The Economist went to press, 12,868 people are confirmed to have died from covid-19 in hospital. Although Britain looks to be some way off the peak in France, France’s figures include deaths that occur in care homes – nearly half the total – while Britain’s do not.
雖然英國的新冠疫情有所緩和，但總體死亡人數巨大。截至文章發布，英國累計新冠肺炎死亡病例高達12868人。雖然當前疫情形勢與之前的法國相似，都有高峰期已過的跡象，但法國將療養院內的新冠死亡病例一併算入了總體死亡人數當中，而英國只統計了在醫院病逝的感染者。
Growth is slowing. 增長放緩。
拓展：用來形容趨勢的動詞：
上升：climb, go up, grow, increase, jump, rise, rocket.
下降：decline, decrease, drop, fall, go down, plummet, plunge.
平穩：maintain, remain, stay, constant, stable, steady, unchanged.
副詞：sharply, rapidly, quickly, steeply / considerably, significantly, substantially / steadily, gradually, moderately / slightly, slowly.
look to be some way off the peak 貌似度過了高峰期
Death occurs. 形容死亡發生的動詞：occur
care home 療養院
A clearer picture of the pandemic requires evidence of its impacts on all deaths, including those as a result of measures introduced to stop its spread. More detailed, though lagging, data from the Office for National Statistics suggest that many more are dying both of other causes (as trips to hospitals are put off) and outside of hospitals (often in care homes). On the week ending April 3rd, there were 16,387 deaths, more than a third higher than normal at this time of year. Excess deaths in Britain are in the same range as those in France, Spain and Italy at a similar point.
要了解疫情的真實面貌，就要研究受疫情影響而導致的全部死亡病例，包括那些為了防止疫情擴散而造成的死亡。英國國家統計局發布數據較晚，但內容詳細，其中指出，越來越多的英國民眾死因包括：由於醫療資源緊張，患者不被建議送往醫院就診，導致死亡；另有民眾在療養院內死亡。3月27日至4月3日的一周時間內，全英共死亡16387人，比往年同期高出三分之一。法國、義大利和西班牙存在類似現象。
lagging adj. 緩慢的，滯後的
Office for National Statistics 國家統計局
Britain’s problem is not a shortage of intensive-care capacity. Hospitals have reorganized swiftly and seven new field hospitals have been hurriedly set up. They may yet fill up but, according to the Health Service Journal, a specialist website, the capital’s Nightingale Hospital, designed for 2,900 patients, treated just 19 over the Easter weekend.
英國的問題不在於缺乏重症救護力量。各地醫院快速重組，國家緊急修建了七座方艙醫院。雖然這些醫院不會馬上人滿為患，但根據英國醫療服務專業網站《健康服務期刊》給出的數據，倫敦夜鶯醫院在復活節周末期間僅收治了19名病患，而根據設計，該院本可容納2900人。
缺乏重症救治力量 a shortage of intensive-care capacity
方艙醫院 field hospitals
專業網站 specialist website
夜鶯 nightingale
Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herb immunity.
實際上，問題出現在疫情發展的初期。英國政府選擇放棄「早發現、早隔離」的策略，而這一策略十分關鍵，讓許多國家得以大幅降低死亡人數。英國政府的目的變成了僅保護弱勢群體和醫療體系，這就等同於認定病毒將會在國內大範圍傳播，最多實現群體免疫。
「早發現，早隔離」 test-and-isolate strategy
群體免疫 herd immunity
On March 9th, when Britain had more than 300 confirmed cases, Sir Patrick Valance, the government’s scientific adviser, said old people could attend church, and that other public events should go ahead. Stopping all interaction, he said, was something 「you can’t and shouldn’t do.」 According to a tracker maintained by the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, Britain was slower than European neighbours including France and Italy to introduce restrictions.
3月9日的英國僅有300多例新冠肺炎，而當時，英國政府科學顧問派屈克·華倫斯爵士表示，老年人仍可以到教堂禮拜，其他的公共集會也應當照常展開。他認為，停止一切社交活動「既不應該，也不現實」。據牛津大學布拉瓦尼克政府學院的跟蹤統計，英國政府發布限制措施的時間要晚於法國、義大利等其他歐洲鄰國。
布拉瓦尼克政府學院 Blavatnik School of Government
From this followed less of an emphasis on testing. Recognising its failure, the government has struggled to increase capacity in the past few weeks. On April 4th, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, belatedly outlined a plan to do so, using facilities in hospitals, universities and the primary sector (before then, testing had been focused on laboratories run by Public Health England). The number of tests has since risen to 15,000 a day, up from 10,000 – an improvement, but still short of most other rich countries. The government cannot escape blame by pointing the finger to Public Heath England: unlike NHS England, which runs health service at arm’s length from the government, it is directly accountable to the secretary of state.
由於政府的前期失誤，英國國內疫情檢測工作也嚴重不足。認識到問題之後，英國政府在過去幾周時間裡加緊肺炎檢測工作。4月4日，英國衛生大臣馬特·漢考克終於拿出方案，動用醫院、大學和第一產業相關產能，提高國內檢測能力，而此前，只有英格蘭公共衛生管理局下屬的實驗室才能提供新冠肺炎檢測。政策下達後，英國國內檢測能力從每天一萬例上升至一萬五千例，雖然有明顯增長，但較其他發達國家而言遠遠不足。這一問題上，政府難逃罪責：英格蘭公共衛生管理局是英國衛生部的直屬機構，與獨立運營的英國國家醫療服務體系（NHS）有著明顯的差異。
衛生大臣 health secretary
英格蘭公共衛生管理局 Public Health England
At the time, ministers repeatedly emphasized that they were following scientific advice. Minutes from the government’s advisory committee support this: experts were not considering a complete lockdown, which was thought infeasible in a country like Britain, and worried about the impact of self-isolation. The concern is that scientists were trying to act like politicians (in judging what would be acceptable to a prime minister suspicious of government intrusion) and the politicians were trying to act like scientists (by doing exactly as scientists instructed).
此前，英國大臣們一再強調，政府出臺的政策是基於科學的考量。然而，政府顧問委員會的會議記錄顯示，顧問專家們起初根本就沒有考慮大面積封城舉措，認為類似做法在英國不可取，同時擔心要求民眾自我隔離可能造成意想不到的後果。問題出就出在：科學家們像政治家一樣思考問題，滿腦子想的是如何提出一個能夠讓鮑裡斯·詹森——這個反感政府插手太多的右翼領導人，接受自己的建議；而與此同時，政治家們卻像科學家一樣辦事，無論對方給出什麼建議都一概照搬落實。
會議記錄 minutes
無法實行的 infeasible
自我隔離 self-isolation
政府插手 government intrusion
So far, the advisers』 fear about the public appetite for a lockdown appear unfounded. Polls show that the British are enthusiasts for the measures, with nine in ten backing them; reduced train and car travel suggest people are obeying the rules. Britain appears to be more a nation of curtain-twitchers than freeborn public-goers, at least at a time of crisis.
截止到目前來看，顧問專家們顯然是多慮了。調查顯示，90%的英國民眾支持限制舉措，乘坐汽車、火車出行的人次明顯減少，這說明公眾遵守政府提出的管理辦法。在災難發生時，英國民眾顯然更願意躲在家裡，而不是滿大街亂晃。
毫無根據的 unfounded
躲在家裡而非滿大街亂晃 curtain-twitchers rather than public-goers
Yet the government may be getting an unfair share of the blame. Critics have made comparisons between Britain and Ireland, which is seeing roughly half as many deaths per person and went into lockdowns earlier. But deaths lag behind infections by several week, and the virus has been spreading far longer in Britain. Travel may also play a part. As Keith Neal, an epidemiologist at the University of Notingham, notes, international hubs are particularly vulnerable; London is home to a quarter of Britain’s cases. Norther Ireland, where the lockdown followed the same path as in the rest of the United Kingdom, but which shares an Ireland with the Republic, has a similar number of deaths per person as in the south.
儘管如此，英國死亡人數多也不完全是政府的錯。批評人士將英國與愛爾蘭對比，愛爾蘭的封閉舉措提出得更早，平均死亡人數僅為英國一半。但英國比愛爾蘭先爆發疫情，而從感染到死亡需要數周的時間。此外，國際交通在疫情傳播方面扮演著重要角色。諾丁漢大學流行病學家吉思·尼爾指出，國家交通樞紐在疫情面前尤為危險，而倫敦作為其中之一，感染人數佔到了全國的四分之一。相比之下，北愛爾蘭，作為英國的一部分，始終落實著與英國大島相同的防控舉措，但平均死亡人數與愛爾蘭共和國不相上下，原因無疑與地理位置有關。
流行病學家 epidemiologist
諾丁漢大學 University of Notingham
國際樞紐 international hub
北愛爾蘭 Northern Ireland
Careful accounting will require adjustment for a huge range of things like prevalence of comorbidities (Britain has high rates of obesity, for instance), geography (it is denser than most European countries) and demography (it is relatively young, and should thus fare better in this regard), and indeed for factors which affect the disease’s transmission but of which we are not yet aware. It will also require more data on additional deaths, not just those that have occurred directly as a result of the virus, as well as on the economic and social costs of the lockdown.
如果仔細對比，那麼其他要考慮的因素很多，包括存在併發症的人口比例（英國肥胖率較高）、人口密度（英國較其他歐洲國家人口更為密集）、人口年齡結構（英國人口總體上看較其他歐洲國家更為年輕，因此從這點上來看，英國抵禦疫情應該更加容易）以及其他影響疫情擴散但尚未被發現的因素。同時，我們不僅要考慮疫情死亡數據，也要考慮非疫情導致的死亡數據，以及封閉舉措造成的經濟和社會損失。
流行，普遍 n. prevalence
併發症 comorbidity
肥胖 n. obesity
人口結構 demography
進展順利 fare well
進展不利 fare badly
Britain has failed to get on top of the virus in the way that other countries have managed to. At this stage, it is clear that the government has made mistakes. It is not yet clear, however, quite how damaging they have been.
與其他有效控制疫情的國家相比，英國失敗了。無疑，政府犯了錯誤，而這些錯誤的代價，還有待進一步觀察。
戰勝病毒 get on top of the virus