中國石化新聞網訊 據12月16日Gulf News報導，隨著中國和印度需求推動現貨市場加速反彈，亞洲買家正以高於上月的價格購買石油。知情人士透露，1月底至2月初裝載的俄羅斯ESPO原油本周較基準價格上漲3.20美元至3.50美元。卡達2月份Al-Shaheen原油的售價比杜拜原油高出約1.30美元/桶，而上個月的平均溢價為0.75美元。
中國11月份的單日煉油率連續第二個月升至創紀錄水平，而在汽油和液化石油氣需求強勁的背景下，幾家印度煉油企業的開工率接近100%。不過，亞洲的石油市場復甦並不均衡。隨著新冠肺炎疫情在韓國捲土重來，韓國原油進口量上月降至10年來的低點。
值得注意的是，在經濟刺激樂觀情緒的推動下，油價升至2月份以來的最高水平。石油期貨最近飆升至疫情爆發以來的最高水平。隨著美國經濟刺激談判取得突破性進展，加上疫苗的上市，令市場對需求復甦的樂觀情緒升溫，紐約市場油價飆升至近10個月來的最高水平，同時大盤也出現反彈。
美國基準原油期貨價格周二上漲1.3%。道明證券(TD Securities)全球大宗商品策略主管巴特 梅雷克(Bart Melek)表示:「油價正對風險偏好大幅上升做出反應。但由於第二波疫情衝擊可能繼續損害需求增長，石油庫存可能仍停留在一定水平，市場對需求是否會大幅上漲產生了顧慮。」
美國石油協會(American Petroleum Institute)報告上周美國國內原油供應增加近200萬桶後，油價小幅走低。此前，國際能源署(International Energy Agency)下調了其對2021年的需求預測，並表示新冠肺炎疫情造成的原油供應過剩可能要到明年年底才會消失。
由於有跡象顯示，大規模接種疫苗將提振經濟和援助需求，石油期貨價格近期飆升至疫情爆發以來罕見的高位。去年11月，洛杉磯港口的進口貨櫃裝載量同比增長約四分之一，表明需求出現了增長。
儘管如此，在IEA做出低迷的需求預測之前，歐佩克決定下調其對2021年第一季度石油消費量的預期。該組織及其盟友準備從1月份開始向市場恢復部分供應。與此同時，據GasBuddy表示，在美國，由於新冠肺炎病例激增，在聖誕節期間駕車出行的人數預計將下降25%。
CFRA Research能源股票分析師斯圖爾特?格利克曼表示:「在石油需求真正恢復之前，必須要有幾個觸發因素。明年上半年，我們將看到石油需求緩慢地復甦，但仍需要一段時間，才能讓所有人安心，讓市場完全重新開放。」
最近的期貨和掉期市場喜憂參半，布倫特原油的即期價差一度跌回期貨溢價的邊緣，即近期合約比遠期合約更便宜。相比之下，上周的現貨溢價高達18美分。與此同時，中東杜拜基準原油一直在進一步走向現貨溢價。
API報告還顯示，上周成品油供應增加，餾分油供應增加476萬桶。
王佳晶 摘譯自 Gulf News
原文如下：
Physical Oil Rally Powers on Amid Strong Chinese, Indian Demand
Asian buyers are snapping up oil at higher prices than last month as a physical-market rally gathers pace on Chinese and Indian demand.
Russian ESPO crude for end-January to early-February loading fetched $3.20 to $3.50 a barrel over its benchmark price this week, according to traders who asked not to be identified. That’s up from $2.70 to $2.90 last month. Supplies of Qatar’s Al-Shaheen for February sold for around $1.30 above the Dubai price, compared with an average premium of 75 cents in the previous month.
Spot trading activity has been brisk this month with at least one Chinese independent refiner and Indian Oil Corp., the country’s biggest processor, getting ahead of the crowd to secure cargoes. Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co., one of the most active spot-market buyers since its refinery expansion earlier this year, bought cargoes from as far away as the U.S. and the North Sea.
Oil jumps to highest since February amid stimulus optimism
Oil futures have surged recently to highs not seen since the pandemic began
Oil surged to the highest in nearly 10 months in New York alongside a broader market rally as breakthroughs on US stimulus talks combined with the Covid-19 vaccine rollout stoked optimism around a demand revival.
US benchmark crude futures rose 1.3 per cent on Tuesday after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Congress will not leave for the year without a spending package, as talks continue to finalize Covid-19 relief. Meanwhile, Moderna Inc.'s vaccine was deemed safe by US. regulators, clearing the way for a second shot to quickly gain emergency authorization.
"Oil's reacting to pretty significant increases in risk appetite," said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities. "But with the second wave probably continuing to damage demand growth and inventories likely staying at somewhat elevated levels, the market is having second thoughts about going materially higher."
Prices edged lower following settlement after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report domestic crude supplies rose by almost 2 million barrels last week. Earlier, the International Energy Agency trimmed its demand forecast for 2021 and said the crude oil glut left behind by the coronavirus pandemic will not likely clear until the end of next year.
Oil futures have surged recently to highs not seen since the pandemic sent prices for a tailspin, supported by indications that a widespread vaccine rollout will boost the economy and aid demand. Imported containers loaded at the Port of Los Angeles in November increased by roughly a quarter year-over-year, signaling a bump in demand.
Still, the IEA's dismal demand projections follow OPEC's decision to cut its own forecasts for consumption in the first quarter of 2021 as the group and its allies prepare to start returning some supply to the market from January. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the number of Americans taking road trips during this Christmas is set to decline as much as 25% as people stay home amid soaring virus cases, according to GasBuddy.
"People are forgetting that there's a couple of triggers that have to happen before oil demand really comes back," said Stewart Glickman, energy equity analyst at CFRA Research. "The first half of the year we're going to see some resurgence of weakness in oil demand, because it's going to take time before everybody feels comfortable enough for things to start reopening fully."
The nearest portion of the futures and swaps markets are highlighting the mixed outlook. Brent's prompt time spread was on the verge of a flip back into contango, where near-dated contracts are cheaper than later ones. That compares with a bullish backwardation of as much as 18 cents last week. At the same time, the Middle East Dubai benchmark has been moving further into backwardation.
The API report also showed refined products rose last week, with distillate supplies notching a 4.76-million-barrel build last week. If confirmed by the Energy Information Administration's storage figures on Wednesday, that would be the third week in a row that distillate inventories rose after more than two months of consecutive draws.