Göbekli Tepe in Anatolia, Turkey is the world’s oldest known human settlement. At 11,500 years old, its founding marked the beginning of our species』 transition from small groups of nomadic hunter-gatherers, to complex societies within ever-growing communities.
摹 öbekli土墩 在安納託利亞，土耳其是世界上最古老的人類住區。 距今已有11,500年的歷史，這標誌著我們物種從小群Nomad的採集者過渡到不斷發展的社區中複雜的社會的開始。
From there, it’s been a one-way street.
從那裡開始，這是一條單向街。
By some accounts, Rome became the first city in history to have over 1 million inhabitants in 133 BC. By 1500, 1 in 25 people lived in towns and cities. Then, the industrial revolution sent this process into overdrive, bringing huge numbers of people to the cities in search of manufacturing jobs. At the turn of the twentieth century, London became the world’s first 「mega-city」 achieving 5 million inhabitants.
有人說，羅馬成為歷史上第一個在公元前133年擁有超過100萬居民的城市。 到1500年，每25個人中就有1個人居住在城鎮中。 然後，工業革命使這一過程變得過速，使大量人湧入城市尋找製造工作。 二十世紀初，倫敦成為世界上第一個擁有500萬居民的「大城市」。
As of 2018, 55% of us lived in urban areas, a trend projected to reach two-thirds of the world’s population within the next few decades.
截至2018年， 我們當中55％的人居住在城市地區，這一趨勢預計將在未來幾十年內達到世界三分之二的人口。
However, technological changes just around the corner may reverse this trend, changing where we live and how human societies are structured.
但是，迫在眉睫的技術變革可能會扭轉這一趨勢，改變我們的生活環境和人類社會的結構。
While predictions about AI are notoriously difficult, it’s a fairly conservative bet to say that autonomous vehicles will become commonplace in the next 10 to 20 years.
儘管對AI的預測非常困難，但可以肯定地說，在未來10到20年內，自動駕駛汽車將變得司空見慣。
Soon we』ll be able to pass almost complete control of our vehicles to the on-board computer, freeing ourselves up to work or relax.
不久，我們將能夠將對車輛的幾乎完全控制權傳遞給車載計算機，從而使自己騰出工作或放鬆的空間。
Autonomous vehicles will take the sting out of a lengthy commute, as you’re able to remain productive during the long time on the road. By allowing people to work during their journey, commuters will be able to leave for work later, and leave the office earlier, without affecting their output. This encourages people to take advantage of cheaper property prices and greater living space, further out from the big cities.
自動駕駛汽車將避免長時間的通勤，因為您可以在長時間的行駛中保持生產力。 通過允許人們在旅途中工作，通勤者將能夠稍後上班，並較早離開辦公室，而不會影響他們的產出。 這鼓勵人們利用便宜的房地產價格和更大的居住空間，遠離大城市。
The high-speed reaction times of self-driving cars may enable them to travel in dedicated lanes at much higher speeds, further expanding the commutable distance. Traffic jams may also be a thing of the past, as autonomous vehicles communicate with one another to efficiently move through a city.
自動駕駛汽車的高速React時間可能使它們能夠以更高的速度在專用車道上行駛，從而進一步擴大了通勤距離。 交通擁堵也可能成為過去，因為自動駕駛汽車相互通信以有效地穿越城市。
At the same time, the Covid-19 pandemic has seen a massive surge in the uptake of remote-working, with companies all over the world allowing workers to log in from home. And Elon Musk’s StarLink will bring high-speed internet connectivity to even the most remote areas.
同時，Covid-19大流行使遠程工作的使用激增，世界各地的公司都允許工人在家中登錄。 而埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)的StarLink將為最偏遠的地區帶來高速網際網路連接。
These changes could bring about a mass shift in white-collar workers out of the city and into the country.
這些變化可能導致白領工人大規模從城市轉移到國外。
Driver wages make up a large component of the cost of transporting goods by road. While the technology companies which own the algorithms used in self-driving cars will undoubtedly take a hefty chunk of the savings, freight transport is likely to get considerably cheaper.
駕駛員工資佔公路運輸貨物成本的很大一部分。 擁有自動駕駛汽車算法的技術公司無疑會節省大量的錢，而貨運可能會便宜很多。
This could lead to factories moving out of dense urban areas to take advantage of cheaper land, locating based on other considerations such as access to energy, water, or government subsidies.
這可能導致工廠搬遷到人口稠密的城市地區，以利用便宜的土地，並根據其他考慮因素(例如獲得能源，水或政府補貼)進行選址。
For example, a furniture manufacturer might currently be located in an inner-city industrial estate, enabling easy access to materials and its customer base. With significantly reduced transport costs, however, they might opt to locate in a smaller, rural town. The cheaper land prices give them room to expand, perhaps building their own solar array to bring energy costs down. And bringing jobs to the area could attract regional development subsidies, making them even more profitable.
例如，一家家具製造商當前可能位於市中心工業區，從而可以輕鬆地訪問物料及其客戶群。 但是，由於運輸成本大大降低，他們可能會選擇住在一個較小的鄉村小鎮中。 較低廉的土地價格為其提供了擴展的空間，也許可以建造自己的太陽能電池板以降低能源成本。 將工作帶到該地區可能會吸引區域發展補貼，從而使其利潤更高。
While transport costs will fall across the board, the cost saving is proportionally higher for small vehicles. The driver of an 18 wheel truck might be hauling a few million dollars』 worth of freight in their trailer. But they don’t get paid much more than the local grocery van driver, carrying a few thousand. Therefore, smaller vehicles will become more competitive on a price per item basis.
雖然運輸成本將全線下降，但小型車輛的成本節省成比例地更高。 一輛18輪卡車的駕駛員可能在他們的拖車中拖了價值數百萬美元的貨物。 但是他們得到的薪水比當地雜貨車司機多得多，只有幾千人。 因此，較小的車輛在每件價格的基礎上將變得更具競爭力。
This softening of the economy of scale opens up new possibilities for businesses shipping physical products and commodities.
規模經濟的這種軟化為運輸實物產品和商品的企業開闢了新的可能性。
Previously it made financial sense to put as much material on an individual truck as possible, then drive that truck to a single destination where that material would be processed. Smaller trucks or multiple destinations increase the cost per item, meaning it’s cheaper to deliver your goods to fewer customers.
以前，從財務上講，將儘可能多的物料放在單個卡車上，然後將卡車開到要處理該物料的單個目的地。 較小的卡車或多個目的地會增加每件商品的成本，這意味著將商品交付給更少的客戶會更便宜。
This gives birth to a hub and spoke topology, where goods are processed en-mass in regional population centers. Factories are primarily located in cities (the hubs), because it’s easier and cheaper to access materials, parts, and customers (via the spokes e.g. interstate highways).
這催生了一個輪轂和輪輻拓撲，其中貨物在區域人口中心進行批量處理。 工廠主要位於城市(樞紐)，因為(通過輻條，例如州際公路)更容易，更便宜地訪問物料，零件和客戶。
However, with self-driving vehicles, the equation changes. Without such a large penalty for delivering smaller quantities, suppliers can diversify their customer base and cut out the middle-men. For example, a strawberry farmer might previously have sent most of their produce to a single supermarket distribution center. Self-driving vehicles could deliver their produce in smaller batches, to hundreds of customers around the area for a similar price per tray. This presents an opportunity for a diverse range of smaller regional manufacturers to popup, creating products using those strawberries which are competitive on price with larger companies.
但是，對於自動駕駛汽車，方程式會發生變化。 供應商無需為交付小批量產品而受到如此大的懲罰，就可以使其客戶群多樣化並削減中間商。 例如，一個草莓農場主以前可能已經將大部分產品送到一個超級市場的配送中心。 自動駕駛汽車可以以較小的批次將產品交付給該地區的數百個客戶，每個託盤的價格相近。 這為各種規模較小的地區製造商提供了一個彈出窗口的機會，可以使用價格與大型公司具有競爭力的草莓來生產產品。
In fact, cheaper small deliveries may encourage producers and manufacturers to sell and deliver directly to consumers, without going through a retailer.
實際上，便宜的小批量交貨可能會鼓勵生產商和製造商直接銷售並交付給消費者，而無需通過零售商。
Online platforms that connect customers with sellers will become the new store-front. Your weekly shopping list might contain 100 different products from 100 different manufacturers. Rather than all of these products coming through a supermarket’s distribution network, they could arrive independently, as and when you need it. Food could be ordered by smartphone app or automatically by your smart-fridge when you run out of stock.
將客戶與賣家聯繫起來的在線平臺將成為新的店面。 您的每周購物清單可能包含來自100個不同製造商的100種不同產品。 並非所有這些產品都通過超市的分銷網絡提供，而是它們可以在需要時獨立到達。 食物可用時，可以通過智慧型手機應用程式訂購，也可以通過智能冰箱自動訂購。
It could even be delivered to you whilst on the move. If you’re walking down the street and fancy an apple, just order it on your phone and the self-driving fruit truck will pull up alongside a few minutes later.
它甚至可以在移動中交付給您。 如果您走在街上，喜歡上一個蘋果，只需在手機上訂購它，幾分鐘後無人駕駛的水果卡車就會停下來。
This makes people less reliant on the particular shops and stores which are nearby. The convenience and choice that cities offer will be achievable in remote, rural areas, further increasing their attractiveness.
這使人們減少了對附近特定商店和商店的依賴。 城市將在偏遠的農村地區提供便利和選擇，從而進一步提高其吸引力。
A typical car is in use only 5% of the time. For the other 95%, they’re sat there, quietly rusting and falling in value, often taking up space on public roads. Despite the huge cost of buying, maintaining, insuring, registering, refueling and parking a vehicle, many of us opt for the convenience of ownership, and car-share schemes haven’t taken much of a bit out of the market.
典型的汽車只有5％的時間在使用中。 至於另外95％的人，他們坐在那兒，靜靜地生鏽並貶值，經常佔用公共道路上的空間。 儘管購買，維護，保險，登記，加油和泊車的成本很高，但我們中的許多人還是選擇了所有權的便利，而購車計劃並沒有從市場中脫穎而出。
That 5% is highly concentrated around 8–9 am and 5–6 pm on weekdays, meaning at peak times, the number of cars on the roads is much higher. But even so, we still own many more cars than we actually need.
5％在工作日上午8–9和下午5–6左右高度集中，這意味著在尖峰時段，道路上的汽車數量要多得多。 但是即使如此，我們仍然擁有比實際需要更多的汽車。
Fleets of self-driving taxis, however, may be too cheap and convenient to resist. The costs associated with owning a car will be shared amongst thousands of other users, and those who ride less frequently will make more of a saving.
但是，自動駕駛計程車的車隊可能太便宜且難以抵抗。 與擁有汽車相關的成本將在成千上萬的其他用戶中分擔，而那些騎車頻率較低的人將節省更多。
One issue to raise here though is that of accessibility. If you have a disability that requires specialist equipment to help you enter the vehicle, it may be difficult to source a suitable car. This may create an additional burden on those with disabilities, either forcing them to own a private vehicle or face much longer wait times. With something so essential as mobility, it’s important that questions around accessibility are addressed.
不過，這裡要提出的一個問題是可訪問性。 如果您的殘障需要專門的設備來幫助您進入車輛，則可能很難找到合適的汽車。 這可能給殘疾人帶來額外的負擔，迫使他們擁有私家車或面臨更長的等待時間。 對於諸如移動性這樣必不可少的事物，解決有關可訪問性的問題很重要。
For families with young children, this is also an issue. Although if self-driving cars prove to reduce accident rates dramatically, it’s possible that current regulations around child-seats and seat-belts may be dropped.
對於有小孩的家庭，這也是一個問題。 儘管如果自動駕駛汽車被證明可以顯著降低事故發生率，則有可能會取消有關兒童座椅和安全帶的現行法規。
Self-driving cars have many technical advantages over human drivers:
自動駕駛汽車比人類駕駛員具有許多技術優勢：
These things will help pack more cars into the same space and move them through our cities more efficiently. Space used for car parking would also be freed up, creating additional driving lanes or space for bicycles or bus-lanes.
這些東西將有助於將更多的汽車打包到同一空間中，並使它們更有效地通過我們的城市。 用於停車場的空間也將被釋放，從而為自行車或公交專用道創造額外的行駛車道或空間。
On the other hand, with a reduced cost of transporting people and goods, we can expect many more journeys to take place. Those people who previously did not own a car, or who preferred to take the train over sitting in a traffic jam, might now travel by road instead. Deliveries will become smaller and more frequent and the use-cases for vehicles will expand. All this means the number of cars on the road at any one time will likely increase.
另一方面，隨著人員和貨物運輸成本的降低，我們可以預期會有更多的旅程。 那些以前沒有車的人，或者寧願坐火車而不是坐在交通擁堵中的人，現在可以改乘公路旅行。 交付量將變得越來越小，越來越頻繁，並且車輛的用例將會擴展。 所有這些意味著在任何時候公路上的汽車數量可能會增加。
How these two forces balance out is yet to be seen. It would be a great shame for this technology to simply kick the congestion can down the road, giving us the same gridlock a few years later. I suspect government regulation will play a key role. For example, key bottlenecks could raise a 「micro-toll」 to encourage cars to take other routes at busy times of day.
這兩種力量如何平衡尚待觀察。 對於這項技術，簡單地解決擁堵問題將是極大的遺憾，幾年後又給我們帶來了同樣的僵局。 我懷疑政府監管將發揮關鍵作用。 例如，關鍵瓶頸可能會提高「微型通行費」，以鼓勵汽車在一天中的繁忙時間選擇其他路線。
It would also be a missed opportunity to take back some of our city space from the domain of the automobile. So much of our urban landscape is dedicated to traffic infrastructure, with pedestrians and cyclists pushed to one side. The technological revolution ahead is a huge opportunity to reallocate public space, create more parks and greenery while letting the algorithms worry about the best route from A to B.
從汽車領域奪回我們的一些城市空間也是一個錯失的機會。 我們的大部分城市景觀都專用於交通基礎設施，行人和騎自行車的人被推向一側。 未來的技術革命是重新分配公共空間，創建更多公園和綠化的巨大機會，同時讓算法擔心從A到B的最佳路線。
Driving is a big source of employment around the world. In the US alone, 3.5 million people work as truck drivers. Whilst not all professional driving jobs would be at risk — you still might need people to load and unload deliveries — there will certainly be a big impact on levels of employment. Taxi drivers will bear a huge cost, especially after getting into debt to purchase a license.
駕駛是全球就業的重要來源。 僅在美國，就有350萬人從事卡車司機工作。 儘管並非所有的專業駕駛工作都將面臨風險-您仍然可能需要人來裝卸貨物-但無疑會對就業水平產生重大影響。 計程車司機將承受巨大的成本，尤其是在負債購買許可證之後。
Despite the potential surge in regional jobs, there will be losers there too. Cafes and service stations on long-distance trucking routes will lose their regular supply of customers — with autonomous trucks simply cruising past without the need to take breaks.
儘管區域性工作可能會激增，但那裡也會有失敗者。 長途運輸路線上的咖啡廳和服務站將失去其常規的客戶供應，而自動駕駛卡車只需經過而無需休息即可。
The impact on governments』 balance sheets will be significant. Billions of dollars of taxable income will be lost. Those who lose their jobs might end up claiming welfare payments and will need to retrain to move into other industries. And the beneficiaries will be Silicon Valley technology companies, who have a notorious track record of paying very little tax on their profits. Given that self-driving cars will be operating and making money using tax-payer funded road infrastructure, tax reform will be necessary to make sure they pay their fair share.
對政府資產負債表的影響將是巨大的。 數十億美元的應稅收入將丟失。 那些失業的人可能最終要求領取福利金，並且需要接受再培訓才能進入其他行業。 受益者將是矽谷的技術公司，這些公司臭名昭著的是，他們對利潤幾乎不用交稅。 鑑於自動駕駛汽車將通過納稅人資助的道路基礎設施運營並從中獲利，因此有必要進行稅收改革，以確保他們支付應有的份額。
At the same time, there will be new opportunities for people, but these will likely be fewer in number. And reducing the cost of transportation encourages increased economic activity across the board.
同時，將為人們帶來新的機會，但是這些機會的數量可能會更少。 降低運輸成本可以促進全面的經濟活動。
As you can see, the impacts of autonomous vehicles will be complex and far-reaching. For millennia we』ve organized our societies around the transport of people and goods, and the locations and makeup of where we live reflect that. What lies ahead is a step-change in how we move around, on a par with the invention of the steam engine, the car, or the airplane.
如您所見，自動駕駛汽車的影響將是複雜而深遠的。 幾千年來，我們圍繞人員和貨物的運輸組織了我們的社會，我們所居住的地點和構成反映了這一點。 與蒸汽機，汽車或飛機的發明相提並論，擺在我們面前的是一種逐步改變的方式。
But it’s up to us to decide how to manage the transition, to reduce the pain for those negatively impacted, and get the best of this fantastic new technology.
但是，由我們決定如何管理過渡，減輕負面影響者的痛苦，並充分利用這項出色的新技術。