原標題：看不懂美國債務水平？無法理解為什麼要廢除多德弗蘭克法案？巴菲特教你！
摘要
2016年11月18日，巴菲特先生跟來自波士頓大學、哥倫比亞大學、肯考迪亞大學(蒙特婁)、格林內而大學、馬凱特大學、聖路易斯大學、耶魯大學、以及馬麗蘭大學的20名工商管理學碩士、理學碩士以及學士進行了面對面交流。
2016年11月18日，巴菲特先生跟來自波士頓大學、哥倫比亞大學、肯考迪亞大學(蒙特婁)、格林內而大學、馬凱特大學、聖路易斯大學、耶魯大學、以及馬麗蘭大學的20名工商管理學碩士、理學碩士以及學士進行了面對面交流。
巴菲特先生在兩個半小時的時間內，跟各高校學生共探討了15個問題。本篇為在場學生速記，材料珍貴，由於是現場速記材料，故語言組織不盡完善，但其中探討的問題對投資都十分有啟發性，個個經典。
特此，格隆匯組織翻譯力量，呈上中英對照版本。
Question 1: What qualities do you look for in hiring people？
問題1:您在招聘的時候看重什麼品質？
WB: Berkshire hasonly 25 people at headquarters， but 360,000 employees. The managers ofBerkshire『s 70 businesses choose their own people. The qualities theylook for are intelligence， energy， and integrity. But the most importantquality in a manager is having a passion for the business. It is not IQbut passion for their businesses that make Berkshire’s 70 managers standout. When WB was 23 years old， he was rejected by Ben Graham for a job.Years later he received a letter saying the 「next time you come to NY stop bymy office」。 WB went the next day. He never asked about pay. You should take a job that you would take if you didnt need a job.
巴菲特：伯克希爾總部只有25個員工，但是旗下有36萬員工。伯克希爾70個子業務的管理層自行負責人員招聘，他們尋找的是有智慧、有活力、且正直的人。就管理者而言，他們身上最重要的品質是對公司滿懷熱忱。伯克希爾70個子業務的管理者能夠脫穎而出正是因為他們對公司十分熱忱，並不是因為他們IQ很高。巴菲特23歲的時候申請為本·格雷厄姆工作，被拒絕了。幾年之後，他收到了一封信：「下次來紐約到我辦公室來坐坐」。巴菲特第二天就去了，毫不關心薪酬的事情。在非得必須工作的情況下，如果你還想要這份工作，這就是你應該選擇的。
Question 2: What is the percentage of S&P 500 companies that are getting better？
問題2:標普500裡面哪些公司的競爭力在提升？
WB: WB hasbeen on the board of directors of 19 public companies. 3G Capital hasadded discipline to Kraft Heinz and Anheuser Busch InBev. Jeff Bezos isthe best business person he has ever seen. The quality of management hasimproved and they are paid better. The CEO『s main responsibility iscapital allocation. Director fees are now about $300,000 – $400,000 peryear and directors generally do little. Berkshire’s directors buy stockin Berkshire with cash (rather than stock options used by most companies).
巴菲特：巴菲特目前是19家公司的董事會成員。3G資本已經加強了對卡夫亨氏和百威英博的管理。巴菲特認為傑夫·貝索斯(亞馬遜CEO)是他認識的最優秀的企業家。CEO最主要的職責是負責資本分配。董事會成員的報酬目前在每年30萬~40萬美金的範圍，他們的工作量總體來說很小。伯克希爾的股東用現金購買伯克希爾的股票(並非像大多數公司那樣用股票期權購買).
Question3: Are you concerned by the size of the national debt？
問題3:您現在會為國債的量過大而感到擔憂嗎？
WB: Thegross debt of the U.S. is 100% of GDP， but the net debt (subtracting trustfunds) is less， at 70%+ of GDP. Our net debt was as high as 120% of GDPin World War II and as low as 35% -38% in the Reagan years. As long asour debt is in dollars， it cannot cause us any problems. (We can always printmore dollars.) Taxes have accounted for 16% – 20% of GDP over time. Medical costs today represent 17% of GDP， up from 5% in 1970. The nexthighest country spends only 11% of GDP on health care. Corporate taxesequal 2% of GDP down from 4% in the past.
巴菲特：美國目前的總債務佔GDP的100%，但是淨債務(除去信託基金)少一點，佔GDP的70+%。跟第二次世界大戰那個時候比，我們的淨債務的確太高了，相當於那時候GDP的120%，但是跟裡根時期相比，我們現在的淨債務也就是那時候35%~38%的水平吧。只要我們的負債都以美元記，就不會有什麼問題(我們還可以印多的美元)。稅收佔了GDP的16%~20%。醫療費用花了GDP的17%，1970年時是5%。醫療費用第二高的國家，其醫療開銷只佔GDP的11%。公司稅務佔了GDP的2%，跟過去的4%相比略有下滑。
Question 4: What is your opinion of active vs. passive management？
問題4:您對主動管理和消極管理有什麼看法？
WB: Passivemanagement is active management in aggregate. The S&P 500 representsthe aggregate result of America. Nine years ago WB made a $1 million bet(for charity) on the Vanguard S&P 500 (very low fees) against a fund offunds (hedge funds). The S&P 500 has outperformed the hedgefunds. One-half of the gross returns of the hedge funds has gone to themanagers. They have underperformed by 40%。 The portfolio managersare getting rich while failing their investors. Find well-managedcompanies that grow over long periods of time and leave them alone. Thats mostly a passive approach. Buy and hold.
Successfulinvestors need to have the right temperament. Those with high IQsfrequently panic.
巴菲特：總的來說被動管理其實就是積極管理。標普500指數其實反映的是美國經濟的整體結果。九年前，巴菲特跟人打賭，賭的是這個人旗下的對衝基金跑贏不了先鋒集團的標普500 ETF。結果是標普500大幅度勝過了那個對衝基金的收益。對衝基金有近一半的收益都歸基金經理持有了。基金經理越來越富有，但是沒有實現對投資者的收益回報。找到一家經營管理良好、且長時期保持增長的企業，買入然後持有，不再管別的，這就是被動管理。
Question 5: What is your opinion of Dodd-Frank？
問題5:您對多德弗蘭克法案怎麼看？
WB: We areless well equipped to handle a financial crisis today than we were in 2008. Dodd-Frank has taken away the Federal Reserve『s ability to act in acrisis. In 2008/9 Ben Bernanke said he will do whatever it takes and onlyhe could have stopped it (financial crisis). Money market funds equaled$3 trillion or 50% of the $7 trillion of deposits in U.S. banks. Thiscould have been the 「greatest run」 of all time. Ben Bernanke was able todraw from the Emergency Stabilization Fund set up in 1933 with respect togold. In 2008， President George Bush said the 10 most importantwords ever in economics: 「If money doesn’t loosen up， this sucker isgoing down。」 But Dodd-Frank took this option away from the Fed. Fear is contagious. It paralyzes. Confidence comes back one at atime， not by a stampede. Both General Electric and Goldman Sachs were 「inthe domino line」。 We were lucky we had the right people.
巴菲特：跟2008年相比，我們現應對金融危機的措施少了。多德弗蘭克法案削減了美聯儲應對金融危機的能力。2008年到2009年，本·伯南克(美聯儲主席)他會竭盡全力應對金融危機，並且只有他一個人能終止危機。貨幣市場基金是3.5萬億，相當於美國銀行總存款7萬億的一半。這可能是有史以來「最偉大的運作」。本·伯南克成功從1993年設立的跟黃金相對的緊急穩定基金中抽身。2008年，喬治·布希說出了經濟學領域最重要的一句話：「如果貨幣政策不放鬆，這些混蛋都會倒閉」。但是多德弗蘭克法案把美聯儲的選擇權消除了。恐懼是會蔓延的，它會麻痺人們。信心只能一點一點被找回來，不會一下就尋回。通用電子、高盛都在這個金融危機的多米諾骨牌之中。我們很幸運，我們有正確的領導。
Question 6: What impact have the fixed income markets had on stocks？
問題6:固定收益市場對股票有什麼影響？
WB: Interestrates are to asset valuation as gravity is to matter. It will take a lotof movement in interest rates (similar to Paul Volcker in 1981-2) before stocksare too high. The interest rates on 30 year Treasury bonds have declinedfrom 14 % to 2 % from 1982 to 2016. Recently， the 30 year Treasury movedfrom 2.6% – 2.8%。 Stocks are cheap if long term rates are at 4%， four tofive years from now. 「We are buying more shares than selling everydayunless interest rates move appreciably higher」。 A profitable trade wouldbe to short the 30 year bond and go long the S&P 500 (assuming no margincalls). But this is difficult to do on a big scale. Borrowed moneycauses more people to go broke than anything else. Charlie Munger has said，smart people 「go broke from liquor， ladies and leverage」。
巴菲特：利率之於資產價值，相當於重力之於物體。利率還要經過幾番調控，股價才會漲到高位。30年期國債的利率已經從1982年的14.5%下降到了2016年的21.5%。近期30年期國債的利率又從2.6%下降到了2.8%。如果未來4、5年，利率還長期維持在4%的水平，股價就會便宜。「除非利率又大幅度提高，不然我們每天買入的股票肯定會更多，而賣出的股票相對減少。」 一個可能帶來收益的交易是做空30年期國債、做多標普500(假設沒有追加保證金通知)。但是總體來說，這很難執行。借債是最容易讓更多人破產的行為。查理芒格曾經說過，聰明的人「往往因酗酒、女人、借債而破產」。
Question 7: Why doesnt WB invest in tech companies？
問題7:為什麼巴菲特不投資科技公司？
WB: Ted (Weschler)and Todd (Combs) each have about $9 billion to invest. One or more invested inApple. With Apple， people get hooked on things that they like. WB has acompetitive edge within his circle of competence (which does not include techcompanies). His circle grows wider over time but outside of hiscircle tech people know better than he does. WB mentioned that hedid not invest in Microsoft even though it had no cost of goods sold and wasearning a 「royalty on the world」 since the world needed its operating system.
巴菲特：泰德·維斯勒和託德·康布斯(伯克希爾的投資經理)每人收到都有90億美金的投資基金。有一個或者多個人投資過蘋果，人們總是容易被自己喜歡的事物迷住，蘋果就是這樣。巴菲特在自己的能力圈裡極具競爭優勢(但是這個能力圈不包括科技股)。他的能力圈在逐年擴大，但是在他的能力圈之外，懂技術的人對科技公司的了解比他要深入。巴菲特提到即便微軟沒有銷售成本，能靠「客戶忠誠度」盈利，全世界都需要它的作業系統，自己也不會買入。
Question 8: Is there a fundamental (investment) wisdom that you disagree with？
問題8:有沒有什麼關於投資的基本智慧您是不贊成的？
WB: Investinghasn『t changed much over time. There were 15 students in Ben Grahams’sclass (where WB was an MBA student at Columbia). He focused on cash over2- 3 years and certain returns. A stock is a bond with coupons onit. Berkshire Hathaway is a stock with coupons attached. Severalyears ago WB invested in 15 South Korean companies selling at two timesearnings. He didnt know much about the companies except for their lowvaluations. He purchased a diversified portfolio. It worked out very well. If you invest in good companies， you do not need to diversify.
巴菲特：投資其實多年來都沒什麼變化。本格雷厄姆的課堂上當時有15個學生(巴菲特當時在哥倫比亞大學就讀MBA)。格雷厄姆主要關注2—3年內的現金，以及特定的收益回報。股票其實是一個有折價券的債券。伯克希爾就是這樣的股票。幾年前，巴菲特投資了15家韓國企業，賺取了2倍收益。巴菲特知道的只是這些公司被低估了，其它的所知甚少。他買入了一個多樣化的投資組合，收益很好。如果你投資了優秀的公司，這種多樣化分散是不需要的。
Question 9: What qualities do you admire in others？
問題9:您會欣賞別人身上的何種品質呢？
WB: Choose someone(among your friends and classmates) whom you would want 10% of their futureearnings. Someone who is generous with a good sense of humor and youwould want to be led by them.
巴菲特： 從你的朋友、同學中挑一個人，挑那個你想獲得他未來收益10%的人。慷慨、幽默，這種人才是你想要追隨的人。
Question 10: What impact have the central banks had on stock markets？
問題10:中央銀行對股票市場有什麼影響？
WB: Central bankshave pushed down interest rates and have affected the whole world. Europeneeded negative interest rates. The Federal Reserves balance sheet was$1 trillion 10 years ago and is $4 trillion today. If WB could bereincarnated， he would like to come back as Chairman of the Fed. Itprovides the fourth largest source of receipts to the U.S. Treasury. Itpaid dividends last year (to the U.S. Treasury) of $117 billion. Itis the largest hedge fund of all time. Its net worth of $4 – $5 trillionconsists of $2 trillion in Treasury securities and the Fed is responsible forover 3% of U.S. receipts. Central banks have never been more importantand no one knows how this (negative interest rates) will play out. Where there is chaos there is opportunity.
巴菲特：中央銀行下調了利率，影響了整個世界。美聯儲的資產負債表上一年錢有1萬億美金，現在有4萬億美金。如果巴菲特可以轉世，他希望能回來做美聯儲的主席。美聯儲是美國財政部第四大的收入來源，去年它給美國財政部分紅了1170億美金，它是一直是最大的對衝基金。它的淨資產有4萬億—5萬億美金，其中2.5萬億是美國財政部的股權、美聯儲還需承擔超過3%的國家收入。中央銀行的地位十分重要，沒人能夠預測負利率會帶來什麼後果。混亂的地方才有機遇。
Question 11: What are your views on Tim Sloan (new CEO at Wells Fargo)？
問題11:您對緹姆·塞隆(富國銀行的新任CEO)有什麼看法？
WB: One-third ofthe country does business with Wells Fargo (WFC). WFC broke a bond oftrust， but the number of depositors will be higher one year from now. Itsbalance sheet is $1 trillion – $2 trillion. Former CEO John Stumpf createdan incentive system with perverse consequences. He should have actedquickly， but he did not. John Gutfreund at Salomon Brothers in 1989 alsowas slow to respond. One should face up to a problem fast. 「Get itright， get it fast， get it over」。 WFC will do fine over time. Berkshire has not sold any of its shares. Charlie says: 「an ounce ofprevention is worth a ton of cure」。
巴菲特：我們國家1/3的企業都跟富國銀行有商業往來。富國銀行之前出現了信任危機，但是存款人數明年肯定是要比現在多的。資產負債表上有1萬億~2萬億美金。前任CEO斯坦普夫設置的激勵機制帶來了不良後果。他本來應該快速解決，但是他並沒有。他跟1989年所羅門兄弟公司的約翰·古弗蘭一樣反映緩慢。面對問題的時候，我們要快速應對。「要正中要害、要速戰速決。」富國銀行以後會發展得不錯的。伯克希爾並沒有賣出富國銀行的股權。查理說過：「一盎司的預防勝過一噸的治療」。
Question 12: Will technology replace human？
問題12:科技會取代人類嗎？
WB: Technologywill not get rid of the human element of fear and greed. You cannotprogram a computer to produce a durable competitive advantage nor createpassion for employees. Berkshire is not at a disadvantage now. WBprefers Ted (Weschler) and Todd (Combs) over computers.
巴菲特：科技並不能把人類的恐懼和貪婪徐璈除掉。你不能讓電腦有一個持久的競爭力，也不能用電腦來激勵員工。伯克希爾哈撒韋在這方面並不處於劣勢(因為伯克希爾哈撒韋子公司的管理者對工作充滿激情)。相比電腦，巴菲特更喜歡Ted Weschler和Todd Combs(伯克希爾哈撒韋旗下的兩名基金經理).
Question 13: What was WBs biggest mistake and what did he learn from it？
問題13:巴菲特犯過的最大錯誤是什麼，並且他從中學習到了什麼？
WB: His initialthree businesses are now out of business – (1) Berkshire Hathaway – textiles，(2) Blue Chip Stamps， and (3) Retail division – department store in Baltimore.He has made some 「people」 (hiring) mistakes. The worst part of his job ishaving to terminate an employee. He regrets 「things I haven『t done eventhough I thoroughly investigated， but I didn’t do」。 (Errors of omission ratherthan errors of commission)
巴菲特：他最初的三個企業都已經破產了：1。伯克希爾哈撒韋(棉紡廠)2。藍籌印花 3。巴爾的摩的零售業務。 巴菲特還做僱傭了一些錯誤的人。他工作裡最痛苦的地方是解僱別人。不過他最大的錯誤還是那些出現在他能力圈裡他可以買入，但是最終沒有買的投資機會。
Question 14: Why has Berkshire invested in airlines？
問題14:為什麼伯克希爾哈撒韋持有航空股？
WB: WB will notdiscuss his recent investments. Normally smaller positions (under $1billion) are Ted『s or Todd’s.
巴菲特不討論伯克希爾哈撒韋當下的投資。不過一般情況下，小額的投資(小於10億美金的)都是Ted和Todd做的。
Question 15: What is the most important skill in finance？
問題15:在金融裡，最重要的技巧是什麼？
WB: The mostimportant skill in finance is salesmanship. That『s how you convincesomeone to marry you and that’s how you get a job. The most important qualityto do well is temperament which would permit the control of fear and greedwhich have ruined many. Anyone who has become rich twice is dumb. Why would you risk what you need and have for what you dont need？ If youare already rich， there is no upside to taking on a lot more risk， but there isdisgrace on the downside.
巴菲特：在金融裡，最重要的技巧是銷售技巧。這就是你如何說服別人嫁給你，如何說服別人給你一份工作的。但是要想在金融裡做的好，最重要的特徵是你的性格。好的性格可以讓你控制住恐懼和貪婪，很多人都死在了這上面。任何一個想變富兩次的人都是蠢蛋。(當你第一次變富後)為什麼要拿那些你擁有的和需要的(錢)，來承擔過量的風險獲得那些你不需要的東西？如果你已經富有了，承擔過量的風險並不會給你帶來什麼，但是一旦你變窮了，你失去太多了。
(責任編輯：DF318)