編者語：
潘功勝強調，要繼續實施穩健的貨幣政策，為促進經濟高質量發展創造良好的貨幣金融環境。人民銀行將堅持金融服務實體經濟根本要求，綜合考慮經濟增長、通脹預期、宏觀槓桿率和匯率穩定，保持靈活適度，加強逆周期調節，疏通政策傳導機制，提升貨幣政策效能，發揮好結構性工具引導作用，加大對重點領域和薄弱環節尤其小微企業、民營企業、製造業支持力度，服務經濟高質量發展。敬請閱讀。
文/潘功勝（中國人民銀行副行長、國家外匯管理局局長）
翻譯/魏凌波 劉馨
潘功勝：我國外匯形勢與貨幣政策
Pan Gongsheng Discusses China’s Foreign Exchange Situation And Monetary Policy
1月12日，由經濟日報社主辦的「2020中國經濟趨勢年會」在北京舉辦。會上，中國人民銀行副行長、國家外匯管理局局長潘功勝圍繞「我國外匯形勢與貨幣政策」發表了主旨演講。
Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China and administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, offered his views on China’s foreign exchange situation and monetary policy at the 2020 China Economic Trends conference held on January 12 by the Economic Daily in Beijing.
Pan’s keynote speech touched on the renminbi exchange rate, China’s cross-border capital flows, overseas lending and monetary policy. Excerpts from the speech follow.
人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上保持了基本穩定
Stability in the Renminbi Exchange Rate
在談到人民幣匯率時，潘功勝表示，2019年外部環境錯綜複雜，全球經濟貿易增長放緩、國際金融市場波動加大，但人民幣匯率在全球貨幣中表現相對穩健，在合理均衡水平上保持了基本穩定，同時人民幣匯率彈性不斷增強、雙向波動，在配置外匯資源、平衡國際收支、增強宏觀經濟韌性方面發揮了重要的自動穩定器作用。
The renminbi exchange rate in 2019 was generally stable, particularly in comparison with a number of other currencies. Despite a complicated external environment that was marked by a slowdown in global trade and economic growth as well as increased volatility on international financial markets last year, the renminbi rate remained stable at an appropriate and balanced level. At the same time, it showed more flexibility with greater two-way movement. With this expanded flexibility, the renminbi acted as an automatic stabilizing mechanism, helping to maintain equilibrium in the international balance of payments and the allocation of foreign exchange resources. The renminbi rate also enhanced China’s macroeconomic resilience.
我國外匯市場供求及跨境資金流動總體穩定
Stability in the Foreign Exchange Market
潘功勝認為，2019年，我國外匯市場供求及跨境資金流動總體穩定，外匯儲備餘額穩中有升，外匯市場主體的交易行為更加理性有序，外匯市場的風險緩釋能力明顯提升，表現出較強的韌性。
China saw overall stability in the supply and demand on its foreign exchange market in 2019, as a result of fairly stable cross-border capital flows. The foreign exchange market exhibited more rational and orderly trading. The ability to prevent and defuse risks in the market improved significantly, giving the market additional resilience. Additionally, the level of foreign exchange reserves rose steadily.
跨境資本流入將趨勢性增長
Uptrend in Cross-border Capital Inflows
「我國國際收支將保持基本平衡的格局，跨境資本流入將趨勢性增長。」潘功勝說，近年來我國經常帳戶逐步進入基本平衡的發展階段，這是中國經濟結構不斷優化和內外部平衡的結果。展望未來，中國較高的儲蓄率和較強的製造業競爭力將有助於經常帳戶保持基本平衡。
China will continue to see a basic equilibrium in its balance of payments, as its cross-border capital inflows increase. China has achieved a basic balance in its current account in recent years, reflecting continuous efforts to optimize the economic structure and balance internal and external factors. Looking ahead, China’s relatively high savings rate and strong manufacturing competitiveness will contribute to further equilibrium in the current account.
近年來，外資流入我國債市和股市資金明顯增多，成為我國資本項下跨境資金流動的一個重要特徵。截至2019年11月末，境外投資者持有中國債券和上市股票餘額分別為3248億和2838億美元，比2016年末上升1.6倍和1.1倍。展望未來，隨著我國金融市場對外開放步伐加快，境外資本進入我國金融市場仍具有較大的增長空間。
Turning to China’s cross-border capital flows, the nation’s stock and bond markets have seen increased capital inflows in recent years. The balance of onshore bonds and listed stocks held by foreign investors reached US$324.8 billion and US$283.8 billion, respectively, as of the end of November 2019. Both were more than twice the amount recorded at the end of 2016. China expects more overseas capital to flow into its markets as the country moves to open up its financial sector at a faster pace.
我國外債風險總體可控
Foreign Debts Generally under Control
對於外債問題，潘功勝表示，我國外債風險總體可控，外債結構也趨於優化。從總量看，我國外債規模變化總體上與經濟增長及對外開放水平相適應，外債主要指標處於國際安全線以內。從結構看，債券成為近年來我國外債增加的主要推動力，境外投資者以中長期資產配置需求為主，穩定性較強，這將是未來我國外債發展變化中的一個重要特點。
According to Pan, the risks of China’s foreign debts are generally under control and their structure is being optimized. In terms of the total volume of foreign debts, changes in its scale basically move in line with economic growth and the degree of opening up the economy to outside interests. The main measures of foreign debts are within the widely accepted limits of prudent economic management. As to the structure of these debts, bonds have been the key factor in the rise in China’s foreign debt level in recent years. Overseas investors have been seeking more stable medium-to-long term asset allocations and this is likely to be an important shift in the future development of China’s foreign debts.
繼續實施穩健的貨幣政策
Implementing a Prudent Monetary Policy
「中國是全球主要經濟體中少數仍然實行常態化貨幣政策的國家。」潘功勝強調，要繼續實施穩健的貨幣政策，為促進經濟高質量發展創造良好的貨幣金融環境。人民銀行將堅持金融服務實體經濟根本要求，綜合考慮經濟增長、通脹預期、宏觀槓桿率和匯率穩定，保持靈活適度，加強逆周期調節，疏通政策傳導機制，提升貨幣政策效能，發揮好結構性工具引導作用，加大對重點領域和薄弱環節尤其小微企業、民營企業、製造業支持力度，服務經濟高質量發展。
「China is one of the few major economies that still maintains a normal monetary policy,」 Pan said. He stressed that China shall maintain a prudent monetary policy in order to build a monetary and financial environment that is conducive to the development of a high-quality national economy. The People’s Bank of China will adhere to the fundamental requirement that finance should serve the real economy. In setting its policies, it will also take into consideration a range of factors such as economic growth, inflationary expectations, macro leverage and exchange rate stability. It will also maintain moderate flexibility, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, unblock policy transmission mechanisms, and promote the effectiveness of monetary policy. It will give full play to the guiding function of structural tools while enhancing support in key areas of the economy and strengthening assistance to weaker segments of the economy. These areas include small and micro enterprises, private enterprises and the manufacturing sector in order to serve the high-quality development of China’s economy.（完）
文章來源：微信公眾號「中國外匯」2020年1月19日（本文僅代表作者觀點）
本篇編輯：王詩琪