原創 明白知識er 明白知識 來自專輯對世界的態度
2020年7月27日，美國權威財經媒體CNBC採訪了諾獎得主，美國經濟學家保羅·克魯格曼（Paul Krugman）。
克魯格曼是新凱恩斯主義經濟學派的代表人物之一，他主要研究的領域是國際貿易、國際金融、貨幣危機與匯率變化理論。2008年，他榮獲諾貝爾經濟學獎。
這次採訪，是想從他嘴裡套出關於美國經濟的下一步走向。
第一個問題，從長遠來看，過早重啟經濟有什麼損害？
克魯格曼說，在疫情沒有得到控制前，過早重啟經濟的做法非常愚蠢，因為其目的只是為了追求一個漂亮的就業數據。
對於這樣的舉動，克魯格曼用一個詞來形容：「自私」（Selfishness），其結果無所謂利弊，因為這是一個「雙輸命題」。
就在採訪同日，克魯格曼在《紐約時報》發表了一篇名為《「自私邪教」害美國一敗塗地》。文章指出，美國共和黨政府試圖通過放鬆疫情控制來重振經濟，結果既輸給了新冠病毒，也輸了經濟。
終歸到底，這是一種在災難面前不負責任的表現。
|保羅·克魯格曼接受CNBC的視頻採訪。
圖片來源：CNBC採訪截圖
儘管如此，克魯格曼仍表明自己是一個樂觀主義者，他將2008年的金融危機與此次危機做了一個對比。
在2008年的金融危機中，美國經濟面臨的是基礎性的問題，即消費債務（Consumer Debt）的難以解決。因此，渡過那場危機花了許多年的時間。而這一次，克魯格曼表示，只要疫情得到控制，美國經濟就能快速恢復。
這樣的情況似乎已經開始出現，第二個問題就是如何看待5月和6月美國工作崗位增長，失業率下降。
|美國近期失業率走勢圖
圖片來源：CEIC
克魯格曼不免悲觀地指出，5月和6月的就業率增長可能只是「曇花一現」，需要更長時間的觀察到底是不是「虛假希望」。
在克魯格曼看來，政府制定了許多刺激經濟復甦的政策，卻沒有把重心放在控制疫情上，從長期來看，經濟可能從兩方面受到損害。
第一是學校停課。
疫情致使學校不得已停課。對於中小學生來說，長期的遠程授課並不適合，教室是必要的，但另一方面，學校也容易成為病毒的培養皿。在這一點上，可能要採取「尷尬」的折中手段，既要保護健康，也儘可能恢復面對面授課。
可對於畢業生來說，危害是顯而易見的。停課不僅會對學業造成影響，他們同時將面臨一個十分糟糕的勞動力市場。政府不控制疫情，勞動力市場的低迷至少將持續一年。並且，對於整個國家的經濟來說，也會錯失解決問題的後路，還會造成更多的隱患。
畢業生無法找到工作，當前美國的經濟問題也就失去了解決後路。
第二，是失業救濟補助即將到期失效。
克魯格曼在採訪中提醒，針對疫情的失業救濟金即將在7月31日失效。這項救濟補助源於3月27日，川普籤署的《新冠病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》（簡稱「CARES法案」）。該法案為美國企業、個人和家庭提供了多項稅收優惠和救濟措施。
該法案最初是美國眾議院的民主黨人發起的，最後為了能讓共和黨人通過，只能選擇妥協，收窄救濟覆蓋範圍，最終才使川普同意籤署生效。
|川普在白宮籤署《新冠病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》。
圖片來源：The New York Times
無論如何，CARES法案大大增加了困在家中無法工作的工人的援助。具體地說，這項法案提高了救濟水平，每個失業者能收到每周600美元的補助金，最長可領取4個月。並且之前不在保險範圍內的臨時工人，也能領取到福利救濟。
7月31日法案失效後，失去了這份救濟補助，數百萬的美國工人的收入將至少暴跌60%。
在克魯格曼另一篇發於《紐約時報》的文章《下一場災難僅幾天之遙》中，他補充道，失業救濟金失效的7月31日是周五，而美國各州的失業救濟周通常在周六或周日結束。因此，在大多數地方，疫情補助實際會在7月25日或26日結束。這說明，目前已經有很多州停止發放救濟了。
數千萬美國人即將遭遇極端貧困。因此，格魯克曼稱，「下一場災難僅隔幾天之遙」。
第三個問題，是很多人都關心的，最近股市上漲趨於「狂熱」的現象。
疫情曾在3月份直接造成了股市多次熔斷，不過，目前看來，股市正在看漲。從道瓊工業指數來看，從3月23日之後都在持續增長，而標準普爾500指數也是如此，本月上漲了4％以上。
|美國的科技股不僅破紀錄地吸引了本國的投資者，還吸引了印度的業餘投資者。
圖片來源：Bloomberg
似乎經濟正在恢復的過程中，但克魯格曼強調：
「股市從來都不是市場和整體經濟狀況的良好指標。」
因為股市中存在著某種「龐氏騙局」（Ponzi scheme）。人們將錢投入股市，只是因為接下來會有人跟進，前一波人掙著後一波人的錢，本質上說，這是一種「經濟泡沫」。美聯儲雖然投入大量資金來「潤滑」市場，但已經沒有更多有力的後招。
克魯格曼認為，這種狀況將把經濟領入「流動性陷阱」（liquidity trap）。也就是說，用貨幣政策來刺激經濟已經不太有效，不管是降低利率還是增加貨幣供應量，都無濟於事。
|「流動性陷阱」圖示，增加貨幣供應量（MS）對增加需求幾乎沒有影響，原因之一是增加貨幣供應量對降低利率沒有影響。
圖片來源：economicshelp
美國經濟很可能面臨著通貨緊縮，需求不足的局面。到時，持有流動資產的人將不再願意投入資金，股市的上漲「假象」就此停止，經濟陷於蕭條。
如今，擺在美國經濟面前的，是一個兩難境地。一方面，疫情的風險始終持續著，沒有要結束的跡象；另一方面，雖然川普政府急於恢復經濟，可接下來數月的失業率不容樂觀。
美國為什麼會陷入這樣一個不難預料的兩難境地呢？或者不如說，川普政府為什麼在疫情和經濟危機面前，絲毫沒有緊迫感？
克魯格曼認為，主要有兩個原因。一是川普政府沉湎於經濟的V型復甦幻想中，認為就業恢復即將到來，因此當下對失業者實施救濟援助不是明智之舉。但川普沒想到的是，美國的新冠疫情曲線與其他國家和地區走勢不同。
|美國與歐盟的疫情曲線對比。
圖片來源：The Washington Post
美國迎來了第二個疫情高峰，美國經濟也隨之再一次陷入困境。
克魯格曼指出的另一個原因，則是白宮的共和黨人堅信，在經濟蕭條的情況下幫助失業者，反而會助長懶惰，阻礙就業。因此沒必要採取救助措施。
那麼，對身陷困境，並且即將雪上加霜的美國來說，現在應該重啟經濟嗎？
克魯格曼在採訪中不無諷刺地說，「（白宮）甚至沒有認真討論過，現在重啟經濟是否太早。」
他直接表示，正是由於在疫情沒有得到控制前就重啟經濟，導致了美國今天的雙重困境。
總而言之，美國經濟下一步的走向並不樂觀，很可能是W型的經濟復甦，也可能是長期衰落。
在疫情得到控制之前，未來仍不明朗。■
（後臺回復「經濟」即可獲得OECD發布的美國經濟調查報告）
參考資料
Elizabeth Schulze. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman sees 'mania' by stocks investors, driven by a 'FOMO' market. CNBC.
Lee Moran. Paul Krugman: 『One Way Or Another, The Economy Is Going To Lock Down Again』. Huffpost.
Paul Krugman. The Cult of Selfishness Is Killing America. NYTimes.
Paul Krugman. The Next Disaster Is Just a Few Days Away. NYTimes.
以下是克魯格曼的文章原文
The Next Disaster Is Just a Few Days Away
Millions of unemployed Americans face imminent catastrophe.
Some of us knew from the beginning that Donald Trump wasn’t up to the job of being president, that he wouldn’t be able to deal with a crisis that wasn’t of his own making. Still, the magnitude of America’s coronavirus failure has shocked even the cynics.
At this point Florida alone has an average daily death toll roughly equal to that of the whole European Union, which has 20 times its population.
How did this happen? One key element in our deadly debacle has been extreme shortsightedness: At every stage of the crisis Trump and his allies refused to acknowledge or get ahead of disasters everyone paying attention clearly saw coming.
Blithe denials that Covid-19 posed a threat gave way to blithe denials that rapid reopening would lead to a new surge in infections; now that the surge is upon us, Republican governors are responding sluggishly and grudgingly, while the White House is doing nothing at all.
And now another disaster — this time economic rather than epidemiological — is just days away.
To understand the cliff we’re about to plunge over, you need to know that while America’s overall handling of Covid-19 was catastrophically bad, one piece — the economic response — was actually better than many of us expected. The CARES Act, largely devised by Democrats but enacted by a bipartisan majority late in March, had flaws in both design and implementation, yet it did a lot both to alleviate hardship and to limit the economic fallout from the pandemic.
In particular, the act provided vastly increased aid to workers idled by lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. unemployment insurance is normally a weak protection against adversity: Many workers aren’t covered, and even those who are usually receive only a small fraction of their previous wages. But the CARES Act both expanded coverage, for example to gig workers, and sharply increased benefits, adding $600 to every recipient’s weekly check.
These enhanced benefits did double duty. They meant that there was far less misery than one might otherwise have expected from a crisis that temporarily eliminated 22 million jobs; by some measures poverty actually declined.
They also helped sustain those parts of the economy that weren’t locked down. Without those emergency benefits, laid-off workers would have been forced to slash spending across the board. This would have generated a whole second round of job loss and economic contraction, as well as creating a huge wave of missed rental payments and evictions.
So enhanced unemployment benefits have been a crucial lifeline to tens of millions of Americans. Unfortunately, all of those beneficiaries are now just a few days from being thrown overboard.
For that $600 weekly supplement — which accounts for most of the expansion of benefits — applies only to benefit weeks that end 「on or before July 31.」 July 31 is a Friday. State unemployment benefit weeks typically end on Saturday or Sunday. So the supplement will end, in most places, on July 25 or 26, and millions of workers will see their incomes plunge 60 percent or more just a few days from now.
Two months have gone by since the House passed a relief measure that would, among other things, extend enhanced benefits through the rest of the year. But neither Senate Republicans nor the White House has shown any sense of urgency about the looming crisis. Why?
Part of the answer is that Trump and his officials are, as always, far behind the coronavirus curve. They’re still talking about a rapid, V-shape recovery that will bring us quickly back to full employment, making special aid to the unemployed unnecessary; they’re apparently oblivious to what everyone else sees — an economy that is stumbling again as the coronavirus surges back.
Delusions about the state of the economic recovery, in turn, allow conservatives to indulge in one of their favorite zombie ideas — that helping the unemployed in a depressed economy hurts job creation, by discouraging people from taking jobs.
Worrying about employment incentives in the midst of a pandemic is even crazier than worrying about those incentives in the aftermath of a financial crisis, but it seems to be at the core of White House thinking (or maybe that’s 「thinking」) about economic policy right now.
One last thing: My sense is that Republicans have a delusional view of their own bargaining position. They don’t seem to realize that they, not the Democrats, will be blamed if millions are plunged into penury because relief is delayed; to the extent that they’re willing to act at all, they still imagine that they can extract concessions like a blanket exemption of businesses from pandemic liability.
Maybe the prospect of catastrophe will concentrate Republican minds, but it seems more likely that we’re heading for weeks if not months of extreme financial distress for millions of Americans, distress that will hobble the economy as a whole. This disaster didn’t need to happen; but you can say the same thing about most of what has gone wrong in this country lately.
原標題：《諾獎得主克魯格曼：美國經濟下一步會如何？》
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