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Trump administration is considering restrictions on visas for Chinese citizens, including students, as part of a forthcoming package of tariffs and investment restrictions against China. The White House is considering limiting the number of study and work visas for Chinese citizens and ending a program that allows frequent travelers to the U.S. to get visas that last 10 years.
It’s unclear if the potential visa restrictions will become policy -- Politico reported that some Trump administration officials are against them -- and just how broad they would be. But it is clear that restrictions on visas for Chinese citizens could have negative effects on U.S. colleges and universities.
China sends by far the most international students to the United States, accounting for close to a third of international students on U.S. campuses, and American colleges depend heavily on Chinese students for both the tuition revenue and the academic talent they bring. China is also the largest source country for visiting scholars to American universities, and legions of scholars originally from China have earned their Ph.Ds. in the U.S. and stayed to pursue their careers.
The new worries about potential restrictions for Chinese student visas build on widespread concerns about falling international enrollments at U.S. universities, which declined by 2.2 percent at the undergraduate level and 5.5 percent at the graduate level from fall 2016 to fall 2017, according to an analysis of student visa data by the National Science Foundation.
In a written statement, Esther D. Brimmer, the executive director and CEO of NAFSA: Association for International Educators, said that any restrictions on visas for Chinese citizens would have 「devastating」 effects and that "students should never be used as bargaining chips."
Survey data collected by CGS show that students from China accounted for 38 percent of new international students at the master’s level and 33 percent at the doctoral level at U.S. graduate schools in fall 2017. Okahana also drew attention to the NSF's Survey of Earned Doctorates, which found that Chinese citizens on temporary visas earned about 10 percent of all doctoral degrees awarded by American universities in 2016, and that the vast majority of Chinese doctoral graduates earned degrees in science and engineering fields. Just over 80 percent of Chinese citizens on temporary visas say they plan to stay in the U.S. after earning their doctorates (even if existing visa policies don't always make that easy).
「The broader implications for U.S. innovation could be quite serious depending on what the restriction imposed ends up being,」 said Stuart Anderson, the executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, which has issued a number of research reports on enrollments of international students and their importance to universities and to American science and engineering. 「If it ends up that Chinese students long term decide the U.S. is not a reliable place to come study and work, then that』ll shut off a major avenue of talent both at universities and in the U.S. tech sector.」
Anderson said the mere fact that restrictions on visas for Chinese citizens are being considered -- and reported on by reputable publications -- could have an impact on international student choices, even if they never become policy.
"People often rely on less than perfect information in making decisions," Anderson said. "International students, they go online, they communicate with each other, they pick up on rumors, they see news reports and they can start making decisions based on that."
"The best way to look at this is not in isolation; it's to consider the other signals that international students are getting," Anderson added. One of those signals, he said, is the Trump administration's stated intent to issue a new rule governing the optional practical training program, which allows international students to work while staying on their student visas for up to three years after they graduate. Many observers have cited uncertainty about the future of the OPT program as one factor behind the recent declines in international student enrollment.
The U.S. has long been the most popular destination in the world for international students. Terry Hartle, senior vice president for government and public affairs at the American Council on Education, pointed out that international student enrollment numbers have declined in the U.S. before, after Sept. 11, but that proved to be a 「blip」 and the numbers then began to grow again. Still, Hartle expressed concern about a number of recent incidents that have made the U.S. seem less welcoming or safe to international students.
「I think in the last 13 months, several things have made the U.S. appear to be a less desirable destination for students and scholars,」 Hartle said. The first, he said, was the Trump administration's travel ban, various iterations of which have restricted entry for citizens of a group of mostly Muslim-majority countries. The second, he said, concerned comments by the FBI director, Christopher Wray, who, as Hartle said, "basically called Chinese students spies in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. That doesn't really send a positive signal." (Wray's full comments -- and responses to them -- can be found here.)
"What’s happened over the last year: first, we』ve seen a decline in the number of international students admitted, second, as The Wall Street Journal just reported, we』ve seen a significant decline in the number of student visas that have been issued, and third, there are now these stories that the administration is at least thinking about the more restrictive use of student visas pursuant to concerns about trade," Hartle said.
"Obviously the issue there is less [about] foreign students than it’s a reaction to the administration’s views about the way other countries treat us, but the bottom line is international students have benefited this country enormously over the last 25 years. We believe it’s in America’s interest to be the destination of choice for the world’s best students and scholars, and it would be a very sad day if we undermine that perception."
川普擬緊縮中國留學生籤證?
中美之間的貿易摩擦可能延燒至高等教育領域。美國政府正考慮限制給中國留學生發放籤證，作為對華貿易逆差的反制措施。但華盛頓的舉措可能會打擊美國順差的大項目：高等教育。籤證的限制會影響中國學生赴美留學，特別是科學技術方面研究生的準入。
教育產業順差最大
《華爾街日報》稱，長期以來，美國在對世界其他經濟體的商品、服務等貿易上存在著巨大的逆差。但美國的教育產業卻一直是貿易順差行業。由於國際學生在美學習期間的資金多來源於美國境外，因此在美被視為出口產業。美國商務部數據顯示，2016年僅國際學生向美國教育機構繳納學費一項就達394億美元，而且這一數字還不包括學生租房、買衣服、食物等其他商品和服務的支出。與此同時，同年美國學生赴海外留學只花費76億美元。因此，美國當年教育產業順差近320億美元，是所有產業中順差最大的之一。
雖然教育產業順差表現不俗，然而美國的貿易逆差居高不下。據美國商務部統計，2017年美國商品和服務貿易逆差較前一年飆升12.1%，達5660億美元，創下2008年以來新高。
另一種保護主義
外國留學生向美國繳納學費，促使美國的學校成為「全美最成功的出口產業」，這種成功很大程度上歸功於中國。據統計，2016至2017學年，進入美國大學學習的全部110萬國際留學生當中，中國學生佔比約1/3。
復旦大學美國研究中心副主任宋國友表示，教育產業是美國目前能夠扭轉其國際貿易失衡的一項重要收入，「如果美方限制中國赴美留學生的籤證，那麼中國留學生赴美的人數和消費都會減少，這會導致美國在高等教育領域的收入減少。」
即便可能面對這種狀況，美國為何還可能會採用這種方法？宋國友分析道，華盛頓方面很可能會限制美方所認定的敏感的理工科，或者有損於美國對華高科技競爭力的專業。哪怕這個領域的收入會減少，但美方會認為，這樣一方面給了中國一個很強烈的信號，又能夠幫助美國在科技和教育領域達到一種保護主義效果。
「毀滅性」影響
美國「國際學生」網站稱，美國國際教育工作者協會(NAFSA)發表聲明稱，國際學生為美國超過45萬個就業崗位提供支持，限制中國學生的籤證「不會使美國偉大」，並可能對高等教育部門產生「毀滅性影響」。最近公布的數據顯示，與2016年相比，2017年國際學生獲得籤證的人數減少了7.8萬人，其中，中國和印度學生縮減情況最為明顯。
根據國際教育協會的統計，雖然一些國際學生通過在學校做助教獲得聯邦助學金，但約60%的國際學生自行負擔全部教育費用。《華爾街日報》援引美國加州大學聖塔芭芭拉分校經濟學教授迪克·斯坦茨的話稱，國際學生通常需要繳納全額學費，是美國學生付給公立學校學費的兩到三倍。如果美國大學失去收入，可能會試圖通過提高美國學生支付的費用來彌補損失，減少留學生籤證可能傷及美國學生。
NAFSA稱，中國學生和學者對美國的科學和創新做出很大貢獻，如果中國學生籤證受到任何限制，幾乎每個美國社區都會感受到影響。
宋國友表示，如果美方真的採用這種方案，單單對中國教育產業而言可以說是利好，畢竟如果去不了美國，可能更多學生會選擇在國內就學。但是不能完全從教育產業發展來看，「因為美國這種限制留學生籤證的做法是一種極其不好的行為，不能讓經貿問題綁架了中美之間正常的學術交流。」