經濟學人閱讀｜科技專欄 太空軌道的戰爭規則

08.22｜經濟學人閱讀｜科技專欄 The rules of war in orbit

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今天羚羊君（公眾：aa-acad）給大家分享的是經濟學人2020年8月8日期刊中科技專欄的第一篇：The rules of war in orbit。

這篇文章論述了太空上的戰爭規則，筆者從俄羅斯的cosmos2542衛星引入，談到了反衛星武器和太空戰爭的可能性，隨後談及太空戰爭規則的缺失和制定。

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The rules of war in orbit

太空軌道上的戰爭規則

KOSMOS 2542, a Russian satellite that was launched in November, was &34;, said General John Raymond, head of America&34;small space vehicle&39;s top arms-control official, was to signal Russia&39; satellites.

美國新組建的太空部隊負責人約翰·雷蒙德將軍說，去年11月俄羅斯發射的衛星Kosmos 2542&34;。發射後的第11天，它分解出了另一顆標為Kosmos 2543的衛星。然後，在7月15日，Kosmos 2543又吐出了另一顆物體，該物體迅速衝入了空隙。

俄羅斯人說，這僅僅是一艘&34;，可以檢查其他衛星。 美國人說廢話，那就是一枚子彈。國務院高級軍備控制官員克里斯多福·福特說，此舉意在表明俄羅斯有能力摧毀其他國家的衛星。

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Anti-satellite weapons are not new. During the cold war, America and the Soviet Union developed several ways to blow up, ram, dazzle and even nuke each other&34;kinetic&34;運動型&39;s GPS constellation, blur the distinction between military and civilian assets. Over the past decade, America&39;s 2007 test, for instance, will still be in space at the turn of the next century. The more debris, the greater the likelihood of accidental collisions with other satellites, which generates more debris in turn. Enough debris could lead to a chain reaction known as Kessler syndrome, which could render entire swathes of near-Earth space unusable for decades.

太空戰爭和陸地戰爭之間最大的區別也許就是後果可以持續多久。例如，來自中國2007年測試的大部分碎片直到下一世紀之交仍將留在太空中。碎片越多，與其他衛星意外碰撞的可能性就越大，這又會產生更多的碎片。足夠多的碎片可能導致稱為凱斯勒症候群的連鎖反應，這可能使整個近地空間條帶無法使用數十年。

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06

For now, there are no widely accepted answers to any of these questions. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 requires states to consult each other on actions that &34;, though the rule has rarely been heeded. Most countries accept that, in wartime, a body of existing laws known as international humanitarian law would apply, as on Earth—something America confirmed in its &34; doctrine, published on August 10th. International humanitarian law is based on principles such as distinction (between combatants and civilians) and proportionality (between civilian harm and military advantage). But how to apply such ideas in a place with few humans is not always obvious.

目前，這些問題還沒有被廣泛接受的答案。 1967年的《外層空間條約》要求各州就&34;的行為相互磋商，儘管該規則很少有人注意。大多數國家都接受在戰時適用於地球的一系列現行國際人道主義法，這是美國在8月10日發布的&34;學說中所證實的。 國際人道主義法基於區別對待（戰鬥人員和平民）和相稱比例（平民傷害和軍事利益之間）的原則。但是，如何在一個人少的地方應用這種想法並不是很實用。

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07

In other domains of war, like naval conflict, legal manuals spell out what is and is not permissible. Legal experts are now attempting to do this for space. The Manual on International Law Applicable to Military Uses of Outer Space (MILAMOS) is being spearheaded by McGill University, in Montreal, and a separate Woomera Manual by the University of Adelaide. Both hope to publish their documents next year.

Hitoshi Nasu, a director of the Woomera project, says that—perhaps surprisingly—big countries are genuinely interested in complying with international law in war, if only to deprive their rivals of an excuse to break the rules. The trickier and more pressing issue, he says, is clarifying the day-to-day rules in peacetime, which might help avert a conflict in the first place.

在其他戰爭領域，例如海軍衝突，法律手冊闡明了什麼是允許的和不允許的。 法律專家現在正嘗試在太空中制定類似的法律。適用於外層空間軍事用途的國際法手冊由蒙特婁的麥吉爾大學牽頭，阿德萊德大學則另闢蹊徑。雙方都希望在明年發布他們的文件。

Woomera項目的負責人那須仁表示，令人驚訝的是，只有大國才真正有興趣遵守戰爭中的國際法，即使僅僅是為了譴責其競爭對手違反規則的藉口。他說，棘手且更緊迫的問題是釐清和平時期的日常規則，這有助於避免衝突。

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08

Russia and China would like a formal treaty banning all weapons in space. Both are keen to prevent America from deploying space-based anti-missile systems which might threaten their own nuclear forces. America and its allies resist this. They argue that it is impossible to define a space weapon—anything that manoeuvres in orbit could serve as one—and that it would be easy to cheat.

The European Union has instead proposed a voluntary code of conduct. Many non-Western countries would prefer a binding treaty, says Daniel Porras of SWF. Though most are not space powers, many are likely to become so in the future, so their buy-in is important. Later this month Britain will publish a draft UNresolution seeking views on behaviour in space, with the results to be submitted to the secretary-general next year.

俄羅斯和中國希望籤署一項禁止所有太空武器的正式條約。兩者都渴望阻止美國部署可能威脅其自身核力量的天基反導系統。美國及其盟國卻拒絕這樣做。他們認為，定義太空武器是不可能的，在太空中進行機動的任何東西都可以作為武器，而且作弊也很容易。

歐洲聯盟反而提出了一項自願行為守則。 SWF的丹尼爾·波拉斯說，許多非西方國家都希望能夠制定有約束力的條約。儘管大多數不是太空大國，但未來很可能會成為太空大國，因此他們的支持也很重要。本月晚些時候，英國將發布聯合國決議草案，徵求對太空行為的看法，並將其結果於明年提交秘書長。

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09

A group of experts has met regularly at the UN to try to hash out a solution, without much progress. On July 27th America and Russia held a 13-hour &34; in Vienna, the first such talks in seven years. It produced warm words, but is unlikely to lead to new laws—especially with existing arms-control collapsing.

Back in orbit, the problem is pressing. In January America complained that Kosmos 2542 and 2543 had tailed a spy satellite in an &34; way (American satellites have also sidled up to others in the past). As space gets more &34;, the diplomats and lawyers have their work cut out.

一群專家定期在聯合國開會，試圖尋求解決方案，但沒有太大進展。7月27日，美國和俄羅斯在維也納舉行了時長13個小時的&34;，這是7年來的首次此類會談。雖然會談中出現了熱情洋溢的言論，但不太可能制定新法律，尤其是在現有軍備控制缺失的情況下。

回到太空軌道，問題就迫在眉睫。一月份，美國抱怨說Kosmos 2542和2543以一種&34;方式引誘了一個間諜衛星（美國衛星過去也向其他人傾斜）。隨著空間變得越來越&34;，外交官和律師將被需要。

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經濟學人一般目錄大綱：

· The world this week：簡單梳理本周的時事

· Leaders：社論，對本周熱點事件進行評論

· Briefing：簡報，對一個特定熱點話題深度討論

· Letter：讀者來信，對往期文章的評論

· Sections：各大洲及中美英三國的本周熱點事件報導

· Business：商業新聞

· Finances and economics：財經新聞

· Science and technology：科技新聞

· Books and arts：文化書籍，書評和文化現象討論

· Economic and financial indicators：商業及財經指數

· Buttonwood：金融專欄

· Schumpeter：商業專欄

· Bartleby：職場專欄

· Bagehot：英國專欄

· Charlemagne：歐洲專欄

· Lexington：美國專欄

· Banyan：亞洲專欄