經濟學人閱讀｜扉頁文章 What Putin fears？

09.01｜經濟學人閱讀｜扉頁文章 What Putin fears？

經濟學人The Economist是一份英國的英文新聞周報，分八個版本於每周五向全球發行，編輯部位於倫敦，創辦於1843年9月。

經濟學人是一本綜合性新聞評論刊物，有商業、國家和地區、經濟和金融、科學和技術五大類。其中文章文風緊湊且嚴謹，對語言精準運用，展現出一種克制的風趣幽默，常運用雙關語調侃。

經濟學人對於英語考試的重要性不言而喻，其文章常常出現在雅思託福、SAT、GRE、GMAT、考研英語、四六級、MTI和CATTI的閱讀理解真題中。

今天羚羊君（公眾：aa-acad）給大家分享的是經濟學人2020年8月29日期刊中扉頁文章的第一篇：What Putin fears？

這篇文章主要談論到了俄羅斯哈巴羅夫斯克市的抗議活動、白俄羅斯針對盧卡申科選舉的抗議活動、以及俄羅斯反對派納瓦尼中毒的事件。筆者稱普京和盧卡申科的政權形式是無法長久的。

想要閱讀往期內容，可以在公眾號右下角點擊&34;進入專欄。

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01

What Putin fears？

普京在害怕什麼？

NOTHING IS AS inspiring as seeing people take to the streets to demand their freedoms—and nothing is as terrifying for the dictators they are defying. In Belarus, among scenes that recall the revolts of 1989, people are turning out in their hundreds of thousands after a blatantly rigged election, heedless of the threat of state violence. In the Russian city of Khabarovsk tens of thousands march week after week to protest against the arrest of the local governor and the imposition of Moscow&39;s greatest popular rival for the Russian presidency, lying poisoned in a Berlin hospital bed?

看到人們走上街頭要求自由，沒有什麼比這個更鼓舞人心了，而對於他們所抗拒的獨裁者而言，沒有什麼比這個更可怕了。在白俄羅斯，讓人回想起1989年起義的場景，在公然進行了不公的選舉之後，成千上萬的群眾湧現出來，無視國家暴力的威脅。在俄羅斯哈巴羅夫斯克市的政府官員被捕後，一周有幾萬人遊行抗議。弗拉基米爾·普京慌了。為什麼當反腐烈士阿列克謝·納瓦尼躺在柏林的醫院病床上時，他卻是普京在俄羅斯當選總統期間人氣最高的對手？

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02

Regimes that rule by fear, live in fear. They fear that one day the people will no longer tolerate their lies, thieving and brutality. They try to hang on with propaganda, persecution and patronage. But it looks increasingly as if Mr Putin is running out of tricks, and as if Alexander Lukashenko, his troublesome ally in Minsk, is running out of road (see article). That is why, despite the Kremlin&39;s cronies). Mr Putin built a mafia state; Mr Lukashenko, an old-fashioned dictatorship. Both men seek to project an image of strength through tame media—Mr Lukashenko had himself filmed this week whizzing around in a helicopter and brandishing an AK-47 to face down the supposed Western plot to overthrow him. However, neither regime can reform itself. They may use state television to proclaim virtual change, but they struggle when it comes to the real thing.

兩位領導人上臺前都希望從蘇聯解體後的混亂中解脫。普京先生向他的民眾提供了一筆交易：只要遠離政治，您就將獲得秩序和更高的工資。盧卡申科承諾要保持蘇聯式的連續性。普京很幸運，在他接任總統後，油價飆升。普通俄羅斯人都從中受益（儘管其收益遠不及該政權的親信）。普京先生建立了一個黑手黨國家。而盧卡申科建立了老式的專政國家。這兩個人都試圖通過溫和的媒體來投射國家力量的形象。盧卡申科本周拍攝的這部影片是他乘坐直升飛機，並揮舞著AK-47來推翻西方的陰謀。但是，任何一個政權都無法進行自我改革。他們可能會使用國家電視臺來展示虛擬的變化，但是當涉及到真實事物時，他們會感到掙扎。

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04

Start with the economy. Belarus retains a theme-park version of the old Soviet system. When Mr Lukashenko went to gather support among the workers, he flew off to a state-owned tractor factory like some latter-day Lenin. The country&39;s trusted circle. Mr Putin has thus been unable to unleash competition and dynamism without upsetting the relationships that keep him in power. He has failed to diversify away from hydrocarbons, so the recent double shock of low oil prices and covid-19 has sent the economy reeling. As belts tighten, he has nothing to offer but nationalism and nostalgia.

在經濟層面，白俄羅斯保留了舊蘇聯體系的措施。盧卡申科去爭取工人支持的同時，他像後來的列寧一樣前往一家國有拖拉機工廠。該國的出口主要包括鉀肥和從俄羅斯獲得的廉價石油中提煉出來的石油產品。俄羅斯與白俄羅斯不同，它的經濟更加開放，整體性更低。然而，工業和金融業的制高點都掌握在克裡姆林宮信賴的寡頭手中。因此，普京先生在不破壞他持續執政的前提下，無法釋放經濟競爭和活力。他未能發展石油產品的多元化，因此近期低油價和新冠疫情的雙重衝擊使俄羅斯經濟陷入困境。 隨著經濟的低迷，他除了宣揚民族主義和懷舊之外別無選擇。

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05

That cocktail is losing its potency. For two decades Mr Putin has invoked an imaginary past of glory, plenty and certainty in the days of the Soviet and tsarist empires. His regime is a pioneer of disinformation. It invented the troll factory, and has created a media environment where, as one commentator put it, &34;. Yet Mr Putin&39;s, but resonate with a growing sense of frustration. They are also grounded in exhaustive research into the regime&34;什麼都不是真的，一切皆有可能&39;s poisoning is evidence that when these regimes run out of ideas, they resort to violence. And yet Belarus shows how hard a tool violence is to wield. Mr Lukashenko tried savage repression by arresting and torturing protesters but, so far, it has emboldened them and further undermined him. Sunday&39;s stolen election. Their refusal may be spun by propagandists in Minsk and Moscow as evidence that the protests are a covert operation by the West, but the people in the street do not believe it. Outside powers should warn Russia that any use of force in Belarus would be followed by severe sanctions. Mr Putin and Mr Lukashenko will not be restrained by moral, legal or diplomatic norms, but if they spill blood to stay in office there must be consequences.

其他國家對此怎麼辦？ 答案首先是捍衛人權原則。 德國正確地向納瓦尼先生提供了庇護。德國的醫生可以解釋俄羅斯對他做了什麼，並且被普通的俄羅斯人相信。歐盟和美國已適當拒絕承認盧卡申科的選舉結果。明斯克和莫斯科的宣傳人員可能會拒絕他們的抗議，以此作為抗議是西方秘密行動的證據，但街上的人們並不相信。外部大國應該警告俄羅斯，在白俄羅斯使用任何武力都將受到嚴厲制裁。普京和盧卡申科不會受到道德、法律或外交規範的束縛，但如果他們為繼續任職而流血，則必將產生後果。

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09

How long these two dismal regimes will survive is anyone&34;sick of them&34;病態的人"。那就是獨裁者應該害怕的時候。

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· The world this week：簡單梳理本周的時事

· Leaders：社論，對本周熱點事件進行評論

· Briefing：簡報，對一個特定熱點話題深度討論

· Letter：讀者來信，對往期文章的評論

· Sections：各大洲及中美英三國的本周熱點事件報導

· Business：商業新聞

· Finances and economics：財經新聞

· Science and technology：科技新聞

· Books and arts：文化書籍，書評和文化現象討論

· Economic and financial indicators：商業及財經指數

· Buttonwood：金融專欄

· Schumpeter：商業專欄

· Bartleby：職場專欄

· Bagehot：英國專欄

· Charlemagne：歐洲專欄

· Lexington：美國專欄

· Banyan：亞洲專欄