09.21｜經濟學人閱讀｜扉頁文章 Power in the 21st century
經濟學人The Economist是一份英國的英文新聞周報，分八個版本於每周五向全球發行，編輯部位於倫敦，創辦於1843年9月。
經濟學人是一本綜合性新聞評論刊物，有商業、國家和地區、經濟和金融、科學和技術五大類。其中文章文風緊湊且嚴謹，對語言精準運用，展現出一種克制的風趣幽默，常運用雙關語調侃。
經濟學人對於英語考試的重要性不言而喻，其文章常常出現在雅思託福、SAT、GRE、GMAT、考研英語、四六級、MTI和CATTI的閱讀理解真題中。
今天羚羊君（公眾：aa-acad）給大家分享的是經濟學人2020年9月19日期刊中扉頁文章的第一篇：Power in the 21st century。
這篇文章主要談論到了在疫情影響下，石油等化石能源逐漸式微，新能源將會崛起。筆者列舉了石油和新能源對環境、政治、經濟的危害和好處，也提及了貿然轉變能源模式可能面臨的風險。
想要閱讀往期內容，可以在公眾號右下角點擊"更多資訊-長文閱讀"進入專欄。
01
Power in the 21st century
二十一世紀的能源
OIL FUELLED the 20th century—its cars, its wars, its economy and its geopolitics. Now the world is in the midst of an energy shock that is speeding up the shift to a new order. As covid-19 struck the global economy earlier this year, demand for oil dropped by more than a fifth and prices collapsed. Since then there has been a jittery recovery, but a return to the old world is unlikely. Fossil-fuel producers are being forced to confront their vulnerabilities. ExxonMobil has been ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, having been a member since 1928. Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia need an oil price of $70-80 a barrel to balance their budgets. Today it is scraping along at just $40.
石油在20世紀盛行，與它相關的有汽車、戰爭、經濟和地緣政治。現在，世界正處於能源加速向新秩序轉變的衝擊中。隨著新冠病毒在今年年初襲擊全球經濟，世界對石油的需求下降了五分之一以上，石油價格暴跌。從那以後，雖然出現了復甦，但重新回到舊世界的可能性並不大。化石燃料的生產者將被迫面對自己的脆弱性。埃克森美孚自1928年加入了瓊斯工業平均指數，但如今卻撤出了。沙烏地阿拉伯等石油國家需要每桶70-80美元的油價才能平衡預算。但如今，石油的價格僅為40美元。
02
There have been oil slumps before, but this one is different. As the public, governments and investors wake up to climate change, the clean-energy industry is gaining momentum. Capital markets have shifted: clean-power stocks are up by 45% this year. With interest rates near zero, politicians are backing green-infrastructure plans. America’s Democratic presidential contender, Joe Biden, wants to spend $2trn decarbonising America’s economy. The European Union has earmarked 30% of its $880bn covid-19 recovery plan for climate measures, and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, used her state-of-the-union address this week to confirm that she wants the EU to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 55% over 1990 levels in the next decade.
雖然以前油價也曾經跌過，但這次不一樣。隨著民眾、政府和投資者對氣候變化的重視，清潔能源產業正在蓬勃發展。今年資本市場發生了變化：今年清潔能源的股票上漲了45％。由於利率接近於零，政客們正在支持綠色基礎設施計劃。美國民主黨總統候選人喬·拜登希望花費2百億美元來使美國經濟去除碳元素。歐盟已將其用於新冠疫情復甦計劃的8800億美元中的30％專用於氣候措施，歐盟主席烏爾蘇拉·馮·德·萊恩本周在她的國情諮文上，確認了她希望歐盟在接下來的十年中，溫室氣體排放量將比1990年的水平減少55％。
03
The 21st-century energy system promises to be better than the oil age—better for human health, more politically stable and less economically volatile. The shift involves big risks. If disorderly, it could add to political and economic instability in petrostates and concentrate control of the green-supply chain in China. Even more dangerous, it could happen too slowly.
21世紀的能源系統有望比石油時代在人類健康、政治穩定、經濟平穩方面更好。但這種轉變也涉及很大的風險。如果轉變無序的話，它可能會加劇石油國家政治和經濟的不穩定，也能增加中國對綠色供應鏈的壟斷。更危險的是，這種轉變是緩慢進行的。
04
Today fossil fuels are the ultimate source of 85% of energy. But this system is dirty. Energy accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions; the pollution from burning fossil fuels kills over 4m people a year, mostly in the emerging world’s mega-cities. Oil has also created political instability. For decades petrostates such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, with little incentive to develop their economies, have been mired in the politics of handouts and cronyism. In an effort to ensure secure supplies, the world’s big powers have vied to influence these states, not least in the Middle East, where America has roughly 60,000 troops. Fossil fuels cause economic volatility, too. Oil markets are buffeted by an erratic cartel. Concentration of the world’s oil reserves makes supply vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Little wonder that the price has swung by over 30% in a sixth-month period 62 times since 1970.
今天，化石燃料已成為85％的能源的最終來源。但是這個系統並不乾淨。化石燃料的溫室氣體排放量佔總的三分之二；燃燒化石燃料造成的汙染每年造成超過400萬人死亡，其中大部分是在新興世界的大城市中。石油還造成了政治動蕩。幾十年來，委內瑞拉和沙烏地阿拉伯等石油國家幾乎沒有進行發展經濟的，卻陷入了幫派和裙帶關係的政治漩渦中。為了確保供應的安全，世界上的大國已經在爭相影響這些國家，尤其是在中東，那裡有大約60,000名美國士兵。化石燃料也能造成經濟動蕩。石油市場受到卡特爾國內動蕩的打擊。世界石油儲備的集中使供應容易受到地緣政治衝擊的影響。難怪自1970年以來，石油價格有62次，半年內的波動超過了30％。
05
A picture of the new energy system is emerging. With bold action, renewable electricity such as solar and wind power could rise from 5% of supply today to 25% in 2035, and nearly 50% by 2050. Oil and coal use will drop, although cleaner natural gas will remain central. This architecture will ultimately bring huge benefits. Most important, decarbonising energy will avoid the chaos of unchecked climate change, including devastating droughts, famine, floods and mass dislocation. Once mature, it should be more politically stable, too, because supply will be diversified, geographically and technologically. Petrostates will have to attempt to reform themselves and, as their governments start to depend on taxing their own citizens, some will become more representative. Consuming countries, which once sought energy security by meddling in the politics of the oil producers, will instead look to sensible regulation of their own power industry. The 21st-century system should also be less economically volatile. Electricity prices will be determined not by a few big actors but by competition and gradual efficiency gains.
新能源系統的圖景正在出現。如果採取大膽的行動，太陽能和風能等可再生能源將從現在的供應的5％增長到2035年的25％，到2050年將達到近50％。石油和煤炭的使用量將下降，儘管更清潔的天然氣將仍然是主要能源。這種架構最終將帶來巨大的好處。最重要的是，除碳能源將避免不受控制的氣候變化帶來的混亂，包括毀滅性的乾旱，饑荒，洪水和大規模人口遷移。供應鏈一旦成熟，政治也會更加穩定，因為能源供應將在地理和技術上多樣化。石油國將不得不嘗試進行自我改革，並且隨著其政府開始依賴向本國公民徵稅，一些國家將變得更具代表性。曾經通過幹預石油生產國的政治來尋求能源安全的消費國，將尋求對自己的電力行業進行明智的監管。21世紀的能源系統對經濟的波動影響也較小。電價將不再由幾個主要參與者決定，而是由競爭和逐步提高的生產效率來決定。
06
Yet even as a better energy system emerges, the threat of a poorly managed transition looms. Two risks stand out. Autocratic China could temporarily gain clout over the global power system because of its dominance in making key components and developing new technologies. Today Chinese firms produce 72% of the world’s solar modules, 69% of its lithium-ion batteries and 45% of its wind turbines. They also control much of the refining of minerals critical to clean energy, such as cobalt and lithium. Instead of a petrostate, the People’s Republic may become an 「electrostate」. In the past six months it has announced investments in electric-car infrastructure and transmission, tested a nuclear plant in Pakistan and considered stockpiling cobalt.
然而，即使出現了更好的能源系統，過渡管理不善的威脅也隱約可見。有兩個風險特別突出。中國可能會暫時獲得全球電力系統的影響力，因為它在製造關鍵部件和開發新技術方面佔據主導地位。如今，中國公司生產全球72％的太陽能模塊，69％的鋰離子電池和45％的風力渦輪機。它們還控制著許多對清潔能源至關重要的礦物的精煉，例如鈷和鋰。 中國可能會變成"電力國"，而不是石油國。在過去的六個月中，中國宣布對電動汽車基礎設施和變速器進行投資，在巴基斯坦的一家核電廠進行了測試，並考慮了鈷的儲備。
07
China’s leverage depends on how fast other economies move (see Briefing). Europe is home to giant developers of wind and solar farms—Orsted, Enel and Iberdrola are building such projects around the world. European firms are leading the race to cut their own emissions, too. America’s trajectory has been affected by the rise of shale oil and gas, which has made it the world’s largest oil producer, and by Republican resistance to decarbonisation measures. If America were to act on climate change—with, say, a carbon tax and new infrastructure—its capital markets, national energy laboratories and universities would make it a formidable green power.
中國的槓桿率取決於其他經濟體的發展速度。歐洲是風力發電場和太陽能發電場的大型開發商的故鄉，Orsted，Enel和Iberdrola正在全球範圍內建設此類項目。 歐洲公司也在引領減少自身排放的競賽。美國的新能源發展軌跡受到頁巖油氣（使其成為世界上最大的石油生產國）的興起以及共和黨人對脫碳措施的抵制的影響。如果美國要對氣候變化採取行動，例如徵收碳稅和建設新的基礎設施，其資本市場、國家能源實驗室和大學將使其成為強大的綠色大國。
08
The other big risk is the transition of petrostates, which account for 8% of world GDP and nearly 900m citizens. As oil demand dwindles, they will face a vicious fight for market share which will be won by the countries with the cheapest and cleanest crude. Even as they grapple with the growing urgency of economic and political reform, the public resources to pay for it may dwindle. This year Saudi Arabia’s government revenue fell by 49% in the second quarter. A perilous few decades lie ahead.
另一個重大風險是石油國家的轉型，石油國家佔世界GDP的8％，擁有近9億人口。 隨著石油需求的減少，它們將面臨市場份額的惡性爭奪，這將由石油最便宜和最清潔的原油國家贏得。即使他們為應對經濟和政治改革的緊迫性而戰，但為此付出的公共資源卻可能減少。今年第二季度，沙烏地阿拉伯的政府收入下降了49％。未來幾十年的危機即將到來。
09
Faced with these dangers, the temptation will be to ease the adjustment, by taking the transition more slowly. However, that would bring about a different, even more destabilising set of climate-related consequences. Instead, as our special report in this issue explains, the investments being contemplated fall drastically short of what is needed to keep temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels, let alone the 1.5°C required to limit the environmental, economic and political turmoil of climate change. For example, annual investment in wind and solar capacity needs to be about $750bn, triple recent levels. And if the shift towards fossil-fuel-free renewable energy accelerates, as it must, it will cause even more geopolitical turbulence. The move to a new energy order is vital, but it will be messy.
面對這些危險，解決方法在於通過更緩慢的方式來過渡和簡化調整。但是，這將帶來一系列與氣候相關的不同的甚至更加不穩定的後果。相反，正如我們在本期特別報告中所解釋的那樣，正在考慮的投資遠遠低於將溫度保持在工業化前水平的2°C之內所需的資金，更不用說限制環境，經濟和政治要求的1.5°C了。例如，風能和太陽能的年度投資需要約為7500億美元，是近期投資水平的三倍。而且，如果必須加速向無化石燃料的可再生能源的轉變，這將引起更大的地緣政治動蕩。雖然邁向新能源秩序至關重要，但這將造成一團糟。
經濟學人一般目錄大綱：
The world this week：簡單梳理本周的時事Leaders：社論，對本周熱點事件進行評論Briefing：簡報，對一個特定熱點話題深度討論Letter：讀者來信，對往期文章的評論Sections：各大洲及中美英三國的本周熱點事件報導Business：商業新聞Finances and economics：財經新聞Science and technology：科技新聞Books and arts：文化書籍，書評和文化現象討論Economic and financial indicators：商業及財經指數
Buttonwood：金融專欄Schumpeter：商業專欄Bartleby：職場專欄Bagehot：英國專欄Charlemagne：歐洲專欄Lexington：美國專欄Banyan：亞洲專欄