ECONOMIST: Ethiopia lurches towards civil war
經濟學人：衣索比亞陷入內戰
The prime minister confronts Tigray, a restive region that will not be easy to subdue
總理面對的是提格雷，一個不容易被徵服的動蕩地區
FOR SEVERAL days the warning lights had been flashing red. Early in the morning of October 29th a general in Ethiopia’s federal army had flown to the northern region of Tigray to take up his new position as deputy commander of forces in the region. He was refused entry. In Mekelle, the regional capital, rumours swirled of troop movements across the state border in the Amhara region, as well as in Eritrea, a country to its north. Throughout Tigray young men had been armed and trained. On November 2nd its president said the region was preparing for war.
幾天來，警示燈一直閃著紅光。10月29日清晨，衣索比亞聯邦軍隊的一名將軍飛往北部的提格雷地區，擔任該地區部隊副指揮官的新職務。他被拒絕入境。在該地區的首府默克萊，關於軍隊越過阿姆哈拉地區的州邊界以及北部國家厄利垂亞的謠言四起。在整個提格雷，年輕人都有武器，接受過訓練。11月2日，其總統稱該地區正在為戰爭做準備。
War may have begun. On November 4th Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, ordered his forces to hit back in response to what he claimed was an 「attack」 by Tigray’s ruling party on a base housing federal troops. 「The red line has been crossed,」 he said. Early reports suggest there had been a heavy exchange of artillery fire around Mekelle and on the border with Amhara. The internet and phone networks in Tigray were cut off. Abiy has declared a state of emergency in the region. In a television address he said the fighting had resulted in casualties, though he did not say how many. As The Economist went to press it was unclear whether the conflict would be limited to a brief skirmish or might blow up into a full-scale war.
戰爭可能已經開始了。11月4日，衣索比亞總理阿比·艾哈邁德命令他的部隊進行反擊，以回應他聲稱的提格雷執政黨對駐紮聯邦軍隊的基地的「襲擊」。「紅線已經越過了，」他說。早期的報導表明，在默克萊周圍和與阿姆哈拉接壤的邊境地區發生了激烈的交火。提格雷的網際網路和電話網絡被切斷。阿比已經宣布該地區進入緊急狀態。在一次電視講話中，他說戰鬥造成了人員傷亡，但他沒有說傷亡人數。如同《經濟學人》目前還不清楚這場衝突是會僅限於短暫的衝突，還是會爆發成一場全面戰爭。
The latest escalation comes after months of bitter feuding between Abiy and leaders of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), an armed group that turned into a political party after leading the rebellion that ousted the Derg, a Marxist junta, in 1991. Since then, for almost three decades, the TPLF called the shots in the federal government before massive protests in 2018 among the Oromos, who make up roughly a third of Ethiopia’s population, forced it to make way for Abiy.
最近的升級發生在阿比和提格雷人民解放陣線(tplf)領導人之間數月的激烈爭鬥之後，TPLF是一個武裝組織，在1991年領導推翻了馬克思主義軍政府的叛亂後轉變成了一個政黨。從那以後，在將近30年的時間裡，蒂格雷人陣在2018年奧羅莫人(約佔衣索比亞人口的三分之一)大規模抗議活動之前，在聯邦政府中發號施令，迫使它為阿比讓路。
His administration views the TPLF as spoilers who are sabotaging Ethiopia’s fragile transition to democracy. The TPLF, by contrast, sees Abiy as a usurper determined to tear up the constitution, which guarantees self-rule for each of Ethiopia’s nine ethnically based states—and even the right to secede. When the central government postponed elections earlier this year, citing covid-19, the TPLF accused Abiy of scheming to extend his time in office.
他的政府認為TPLF是破壞者，破壞了衣索比亞脆弱的民主過渡。相比之下，TPLF認為阿比是一個篡位者，決心撕毀憲法，憲法保證了衣索比亞九個民族國家的自治，甚至是獨立的權利。今年早些時候，當中央政府以新冠肺炎為由推遲選舉時，TPLF指責阿比陰謀延長他的任期。
The feud came to a head in September, when Tigray defied the federal government and went ahead to hold its own regional election. Instead of quietly accepting the result, the central government said it was illegal. The federal parliament voted to isolate Tigray’s leaders. The finance ministry in Addis Ababa stopped giving money to the regional government and set in motion plans to send funds directly to local authorities. It is also said to have blocked welfare payments to poor farmers and to have tried to prevent investors and even some tourists from travelling to Mekelle.
9月，當提格雷反抗聯邦政府並繼續舉行自己的地區選舉時，這種仇恨達到了頂點。中央政府沒有平靜地接受這個結果，而是說這是非法的。聯邦議會投票孤立提格雷的領導人。阿迪斯阿貝巴的財政部停止向地方政府撥款，並啟動了直接向地方政府撥款的計劃。據說它還阻止向貧困農民支付福利金，並試圖阻止投資者甚至一些遊客前往默克萊。
The TPLF said that slashing federal funding amounted to a 「declaration of war」. It called for Abiy to step down and for a caretaker government to replace him. Although the prime minister had repeatedly ruled out armed intervention, parliament recently authorised it. Both sides had flexed their muscles with military shows of force. 「If Abiy wishes to fight this out, we will pay him in his coin,」 Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF official, told The Economist in late October.
TPLF表示，削減聯邦資金相當於「宣戰」。它要求阿比下臺，並由一個看守政府來取代他。儘管首相一再排除武裝幹涉的可能性，但議會最近還是批准了。雙方都用軍事力量展示了他們的肌肉。TPLF高級官員格塔丘·雷達告訴記者:「如果阿比想解決這個問題，我們會給他錢。」《經濟學人》十月下旬。
It is not the only conflict tugging hard at the seams of the Ethiopian state. Abiy is also waging a war against armed separatists in his own region of Oromia, the country’s largest. He is struggling to quell popular protests against his rule there and elsewhere. In the past few weeks there have been several massacres, mostly of Amharas. On November 1st armed men killed dozens of women and children in a school yard in western Oromia, according to Amnesty International.
這並不是唯一一次嚴重困擾衣索比亞政府的衝突。阿比還在該國最大的奧羅莫地區對武裝分裂分子發動戰爭。他正在努力平息當地和其他地方反對他統治的民眾抗議。在過去的幾周裡，發生了幾次大屠殺，大部分是針對阿姆哈拉人的。據大赦國際稱，11月1日，武裝分子在奧羅米亞西部的一個學校院子裡殺害了數十名婦女和兒童。
The federal government claims that the TPLF fuels these various conflicts by arming and training opposition groups, though hard evidence has yet to be shown. This, it says, justifies action. On November 2nd Abiy’s allies in Amhara called on him to finish off the TPLF 「once and for all」. Parliament suggested it would declare the TPLF a 「terrorist」 organisation.
聯邦政府聲稱，TPLF通過武裝和訓練反對派團體加劇了這些衝突，儘管還沒有確鑿的證據。它說，這證明了行動的正當性。11月2日，阿比在阿姆哈拉的盟友呼籲他「一勞永逸地」結束TPLF。議會建議宣布TPLF為「恐怖主義」組織。
Abiy may be hoping to reassert control over Tigray with a quick strike. But three factors make the conflict with the TPLF especially dangerous. First, the TPLF is by far the best equipped and most powerful of Ethiopia’s opposition forces. Though Tigrayans are less than 10% of Ethiopia’s population, the region’s paramilitaries are led by veterans of both the long struggle against the Derg and of a devastating war with Eritrea fought mostly between 1998 and 2000. Tigrayan officers purged by Abiy from the federal army are said to have returned to Tigray to train and organise new recruits. Though the constitution allows each region to have its own security forces, the prime minister’s office has accused the TPLF of unconstitutionally 「arming and organising irregular militias」.
阿比可能希望通過一次快速打擊來重新控制提格雷。但是有三個因素使得與TPLF的衝突特別危險。首先，TPLF是迄今為止裝備最好、最強大的衣索比亞反對派力量。雖然提格雷人不到衣索比亞人口的10%，但該地區的準軍事組織是由經歷過長期反德鬥爭和1998年至2000年與厄利垂亞毀滅性戰爭的老兵領導的。據說被阿比從聯邦軍隊中清除出去的提格雷軍官回到提格雷訓練和組織新兵。儘管憲法允許每個地區擁有自己的安全部隊，但總理辦公室指責TPLF違憲「武裝和組織非正規民兵」。
Moreover, Tigray is also the home-base for the Ethiopian army’s most powerful units, amounting to more than half its soldiers. Organised into its Northern Command, they bore the brunt of the fighting against Eritrea. The TPLF reckons that many of the Northern Command’s officers and soldiers would switch sides or mutiny if Abiy ordered them into battle against Tigray. On November 4th Tigray’s state broadcaster claimed that many officers and other ranks had already defected. The federal government denies it.
此外，提格雷也是衣索比亞軍隊最強大部隊的大本營，其士兵人數超過一半。他們被編入北方司令部，在與厄利垂亞的戰鬥中首當其衝。TPLF認為，如果阿比命令北方司令部的許多軍官和士兵與提格雷作戰，他們就會改變立場或叛變。11月4日，提格雷的國家廣播公司聲稱許多軍官和其他軍銜已經叛逃。聯邦政府予以否認。
The third factor is Eritrea. In 2018 Abiy ended the cold war between the countries by signing a peace deal with Eritrea’s ageing dictator, Isaias Afeworki, for which Abiy was awarded the Nobel prize the year after. But Isaias, whose enmity with the TPLF stretches back decades, has shown little appetite for peace. Instead, he has stepped up his efforts to topple his old foes by cosying up to Abiy. On October 31st Eritrea’s government declared that the TPLF was 「on its deathbed」. Eritrean troops are said to have been conducting provocative manoeuvres along the border. 「Tigray is preparing for war on two fronts,」 says Fetsum Berhane, a Tigrayan activist.
第三個因素是厄利垂亞。2018年，阿比結束了兩國之間的冷戰，與厄利垂亞年邁的獨裁者伊薩亞斯·阿費沃伊籤署了和平協議，阿比因此在第二年獲得諾貝爾獎。但是伊薩亞斯對TPLF的敵意可以追溯到幾十年前，他對和平沒有什麼興趣。相反，他通過討好阿比，加緊努力推翻他的老對手。10月31日，厄裡特利亞政府宣布TPLF「奄奄一息」。據說厄利垂亞部隊一直在邊界沿線進行挑釁性演習。「提格雷正在為兩條戰線上的戰爭做準備，」提格雷激進分子費瑟姆·伯哈內說。
Both sides claim to have done all they can to prevent escalation. 「What we want is to avoid bloodshed,」 said Seyoum Mesfin, a Tigrayan who was a former foreign minister of Ethiopia, recently in Mekelle. He stressed that the TPLF wanted dialogue, but with all parties on an equal footing. Abiy’s office, for its part, claims the government has 「retained a policy of extreme patience」 but that war cannot be prevented by the 「goodwill」 of only one side. It insisted the army was acting to 「save the country and the region from spiralling into instability」. As both sides edge closer to war, some hear echoes of 1998. That was when Ethiopia and Eritrea sleepwalked into a catastrophic conflict. There is still just enough time for both sides to wake up.
雙方都聲稱已經竭盡全力防止事態升級。「我們想要的是避免流血，」前衣索比亞外交部長、提格雷人塞尤姆·梅斯芬最近在默克萊說。他強調，TPLF希望對話，但要在平等的基礎上與所有各方對話。阿比辦公室則聲稱政府「保留了一項極端耐心的政策」，但是戰爭不能僅靠一方的「善意」來阻止。它堅稱，軍隊的行動是為了「拯救國家和地區，防止其陷入動蕩」。隨著雙方越來越接近戰爭，一些人聽到了1998年的回聲。那是衣索比亞和厄利垂亞陷入災難性衝突的時候。雙方醒來的時間還是剛剛夠。
本文章英文原文來自經濟學人，不代表公眾號立場
英文文章及圖片來源：
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/11/04/ethiopia-lurches-towards-civil-war
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