ECONOMIST: Why the pandemic has not dented Latin American remittances
經濟學人：為什麼這場流行病沒有影響拉丁美洲的匯款
In some countries migrant workers are sending more money home this year. That may be a bad sign
在一些國家，移民工人今年寄更多的錢回家。這可能是一個不好的信號
MIGRANTS LIVING in countries with high rates of covid-19 have had an especially hard year. Across the rich world, unemployment among foreign-born workers has risen faster than among the rest of the population. Migrants are more likely to work in industries worst affected by the pandemic, such as hospitality and construction. In America, employment among migrants fell by 21% in April compared with February; for native-born workers the drop was just 14%. Their misfortune has a knock-on effect. One in nine people around the world rely on the money that migrant workers send home, according to the United Nations.
生活在新冠肺炎移民率高的國家的移民今年過得特別艱難。在富裕國家，外國出生工人的失業率比其他人口的失業率上升得更快。移民更有可能在受疫情影響最嚴重的行業工作，如酒店業和建築業。在美國，4月份移民就業率比2月份下降了21%；對於土生土長的工人來說，降幅僅為14%。他們的不幸產生了連鎖反應。根據聯合國的數據，世界上每九個人中就有一個人依賴民工匯回家的錢。
In April the World Bank predicted that these remittances would fall by 20% this year compared with 2019. That would be four times the percentage drop in 2009 caused by the global financial crisis. But last month the bank made a correction. Remittances to lower- and middle-income countries will shrink by only 7% this year, it now reckons. In Latin America, the amount will barely budge, falling by 0.2%. Why have remittances held up so well?
今年4月，世界銀行預測，與2019年相比，今年這些匯款將下降20%。這將是2009年全球金融危機造成的百分比下降的四倍。但是上個月銀行做了一個修正。它現在估計，今年向中低收入國家的匯款只會減少7%。在拉丁美洲，這一數字幾乎不會變動，下降了0.2%。為什麼匯款保持得這麼好？
Latin American countries that depend on emigrant income—it is equivalent to 21% of El Salvador’s GDP, for example—report that monthly remittance flows have not only recovered since April, but have been higher than a year ago (see chart). The money has been sent mainly by migrants in America and Spain; those in other countries sent comparatively little. The reasons for the increase are various. Many migrants』 incomes were propped up by stimulus cheques or benefits. As the dollar and the euro held up, Latin American currencies withered. Bad times back home may have encouraged migrants to send more money while the conversion rate was good. More are taking advantage of digital services to send money too, which are cheaper and easier to track than traditional money transfers.
依賴移民收入的拉丁美洲國家——例如，相當於薩爾瓦多國內生產總值的21%——報告稱，自4月份以來，每月匯款流量不僅有所恢復，而且高於一年前(見圖表)。這筆錢主要是由美國和西班牙的移民寄來的；其他國家的人發送的相對較少。增加的原因是多方面的。許多移民的收入是由刺激支票或福利支撐的。隨著美元和歐元走強，拉美貨幣萎縮。國內的不景氣可能鼓勵了移民在轉化率良好的情況下寄更多的錢。更多的人也在利用數字服務來匯款，這比傳統的匯款更便宜，也更容易跟蹤。
Migrants are also, either by decision or necessity, returning home in greater numbers. Precise data are not yet available, but the International Organisation for Migration, a UN body, estimated over the summer that around 3m migrants were stranded around the world. As travel restrictions have been lifted, the World Bank has noted a surge in the numbers going home. Some have sent the last of their savings before making the trip, which could explain the sharp rise in remittances to Mexico in March. Or, more bleakly, if migrants have died of covid-19, their savings may have been sent by others on their behalf: Hispanics account for about 15% of the more than 270,000 victims in America, according to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
無論是出於決定還是必要，更多的移民也在返回家園。目前還沒有準確的數據，但聯合國機構國際移民組織估計，今年夏天全球約有300萬移民滯留。隨著旅行限制的取消，世界銀行注意到返鄉人數激增。一些人在旅行前已經把最後的積蓄匯了出去，這可以解釋3月份流向墨西哥的匯款急劇上升的原因。或者，更令人沮喪的是，如果移民死於新冠肺炎，他們的積蓄可能是由他人代表他們匯來的:根據疾病控制和預防中心的數據，在美國27萬多名受害者中，西班牙裔約佔15%。
Although remittances to Latin America have held up over the past few months, the World Bank thinks this trend is unlikely to last into the new year. It expects the total to fall by 8.1% in 2021, mainly because of weak employment prospects. That is a steeper drop than the 7.5% it forecasts for the world as a whole. If the bank proves right, Latin American migrants, and their relatives back home, will have coped well with this crisis only to face a new one.
儘管過去幾個月向拉丁美洲的匯款保持不變，但世界銀行認為這一趨勢不太可能持續到新的一年。它預計2021年總收入將下降8.1%，主要是因為就業前景疲軟。這比它預測的全球7.5%的降幅更大。如果銀行證明是正確的，拉丁美洲移民和他們在家鄉的親戚將會很好地應對這場危機，只是面對一場新的危機。
本文章英文原文來自經濟學人，不代表公眾號立場
英文文章及圖片來源：
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/12/02/why-the-pandemic-has-not-dented-latin-american-remittances
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