作者：包亦農（Klaus Paur）思緯汽車研究大中華和韓國地區汽車行業董事總經理
【作者簡介：包亦農擁有20多年市場營銷和市場研究經驗, 其中13年致力於汽車行業。於1995年開始服務於TNS汽車組巴黎總部，主要負責歐洲和拉丁美洲地區廣告的有效性分析。2003年，Klaus來到中國，開始組建TNS中國汽車組，並逐步開展TNS在中國內陸地區的汽車研究項目。在他的帶領下，TNS中國汽車業務取得了快速的成長。2007年，包亦農被任命為北亞太區汽車研究總監，職責亦包括了大中華地區和韓國地區的汽車相關業務，以及TNS 北亞地區的協調運作，等等。】
以「創新•未來」為主題的2011上海車展即將拉開大幕，在各項準備工作如火如荼的進行時，我們不妨來對中國汽車製造商的現狀進行一番梳理和分析。
對於中國自主品牌來說，2009年和2010年是創紀錄的兩年。總體來說在和國際合資品牌的競爭過程中，自主品牌大幅提高了自己的市場份額。
然而，對於自主車企而言，2011年的開局並不理想。政府針對小排量汽車的補貼政策紛紛到期，這抑制了低端市場上消費者的新車購買需求。這部分消費者對汽車價格最為敏感，通常他們會選擇本土廠商的產品。 然而還有更加不利的消息傳出，隨著廣汽本田、上汽通用五菱以及東風日產等合資廠商紛紛推出自主品牌（理念、寶駿、啟辰等），目標直指原本是中國本土企業佔據優勢的低端乘用車細分市場，而且其它合資廠商也在躍躍欲試。與此同時，中國自主品牌還沒有準備好在高端車細分市場與合資企業展開拼爭。
換言之，目前的中國自主品牌正在經歷著前所未有的巨大壓力。那麼對於未來，他們又有著怎樣的規劃和期待呢？儘管一大批國內廠商市場表現活躍，但只有少數本土企業能夠真正脫穎而出，尤其是對於大多數私營汽車企業而言：
奇瑞已經提前採取行動，與國際知名的AVL公司合作開發動力系統，並且為其研發項目設定了技術標準。這些措施幫助奇瑞穩居中系汽車銷量首位，同時奇瑞也是中國最大的汽車出口企業。
除收購沃爾沃的交易外，在品牌規劃方面，在母品牌下劃分三個子品牌（全球鷹、帝豪和英倫）的決定也令吉利聲名大噪。值得人們注意的是，吉利頗為低調地收購了澳大利亞DSI自動變速器公司。收購交易讓吉利在提升產品傳動系統、改善燃油經濟性方面佔據了有利地位。很顯然，吉利注重創新，努力提升自己的技術水平。要想在汽車行業獲得持久的成功，這些舉措都是不可或缺的。
在創新之路上，長城汽車選擇了另一種不同的方式，從原先知名的皮卡及商用車生產商，成功地轉變為一個頗具吸引力的乘用車品牌。長城是少數幾個從去年至今依舊保持迅猛勢頭的公司之一，並且依然呈現出良好的發展態勢。
比亞迪或許是最具名氣的中國自主汽車品牌，一方面因為其股東之一是聲名顯赫的沃倫•巴菲特，另一方面是由於其在電動汽車技術方面出色的營銷活動。在小型及廉價汽車領域比亞迪成功推出了中國市場上銷量最好的車型——F3。然而，在強化產品組合方面，比亞迪則顯得有些行動緩慢，而且沒能完全履行其關於新能源汽車的承諾，這一點可以從最近比亞迪大幅降價的舉措中看出來。現階段比亞迪的股價遭遇重挫，使之陷入了一個相當危險的境地。與戴姆勒奔馳合作開發電動汽車的項目鞏固了比亞迪的信譽，但產品發布卻要等到2013年。不過，電池技術方面的專長還是讓比亞迪在替代能源汽車領域佔據著有利地位，成為創新領袖之一。
那麼我們又當如何看待一汽、上汽、東風等國有大型汽車企業的前景呢？這些廠商已經開始斥資打造合資自主品牌，但似乎他們的銷售業績仍要依賴於同國際合資夥伴一道運作的業務，同時還存在著轉移自身業務重點的風險。換句話說，在中國汽車銷量高速增長了十多年後，外國汽車製造商已經坐穩了頭把交椅，並且掌控著技術創新的步調。即便在替代能源領域，原本中國汽車廠商應當脫穎而出，但通用汽車（如雪佛蘭Volt）、日產（如聆風）等國際品牌還是搶先一步推出了產品，佔據了優勢。
毫無疑問，中國的汽車製造商將幫助塑造中國乃至全球汽車產業的未來。但是，在產品開發方面，私營汽車企業需要減少對國際汽車廠商的依賴，而國有車企更不應當被它們的外國合資夥伴束縛住手腳。未來幾年，如何實現這一目標將成為政府面臨的主要挑戰。
本文為獨家供給搜狐汽車刊載的原創文章，版權歸搜狐汽車所有，未經許可，不準轉載
Innovation for tomorrow – what does the future hold for Chinese car makers?
By Klaus Paur
As we gear up for the 2011 Shanghai Autoshow – this year promoting 「innovation for tomorrow」 – the time is right to analyse the current situation for Chinese car makers.
After two record years during which domestic makes as a group made substantial gains in market share from international joint-venture (JV) brands, 2011 did not start with good news for Chinese auto makers. Government incentives to subsidize low engine displacement cars were phased out, which has discouraged the most price-sensitive consumers particularly in the lower tier markets from purchasing new cars – usually of Chinese origin.
Even more bad news is looming, as JV manufacturers such as Guanqi Honda, SGM Wuling and Dongfeng Nissan have established their own independent JV brands (LiNian, BaoJun and QiChen) specifically targeting the low end passenger vehicle segment, traditionally a Chinese stronghold, with others likely to follow. At the same time Chinese brands are not yet ready to compete in the higher vehicle segments. In other words, Chinese car makes today are under pressure. So what lies in store from their perspective for tomorrow? While a multitude of domestic players are active in this market, only a few Chinese manufacturers stand out from the crowd – notably independent and mostly privately-owned ones:
Chery has taken early action to work on own powertrain systems with international specialist AVL and set the technological basis for is vehicle development program. It has helped the company to become the largest passenger vehicle brand in China by sales volume, and biggest exporter of Chinese-made cars to overseas markets.
Geely has not only made headlines with their bold take-over of Volvo, but also with their decision to henceforth market their homegrown vehicles under three different brands (GLeagle, Emgrand, and Englon). Take also into consideration their much less publicized acquisition of Australian gearbox maker DSI, which has put the company in a formidable position to upgrade transmission systems in their products and push for better fuel-economy. Geely is clearly on a path of innovation and improvement of its technological know-how, which is indispensable for sustainable success in this industry.
Greatwall has chosen a different approach to innovation, and successfully converted from a recognized maker of pickups and commercial vehicles to an attractive brand of a wide range of passenger vehicles. The company is one of the few to keep momentum from last year, still displaying a healthy growth in the market.
And then there is BYD, probably the most prominent Chinese car brand thanks to its well known international shareholder Warren Buffet, as well as its successful marketing campaign around battery electric vehicle technology. BYD has efficiently exploited the run for small and cheap cars, which earned the company the best selling model in the China market, the F3. They have however been slow in enhancing their vehicle portfolio, and also fell short in delivering on the promise of alternative energy vehicles, seeing its current share price tumble. This puts the car maker in a rather precarious position. Its partnership with Daimler Benz to jointly develop electric vehicle offerings secures the car maker’s credibility, but the market launch is not expected before 2013. Still, BYD’s know-how in battery technology puts it in a favourable position to be one of the innovation leaders in the field of alternative energy vehicles.
What about the major state-owned car makers, FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, and the like? They have all started to invest in self-developed brands, but seemingly their successful operations with international JV partners drive business results, and risk divertingfocus from their own activities. To put this a different way, after a decade of quickly growing vehicle sales in China, the foreign car manufacturers are sitting firmly in the driving seat and control the pace of technological innovation. Even in the alternative energy sector, which is supposed to be a field for Chinese car makers to excel, international brands like GM (with its Chevrolet Volt) and Nissan (with its Leaf) are going to take advantage with product launches ahead of their Chinese counterparts.
There is no doubt that Chinese car manufacturers will help to shape the future of the auto industry in China, and globally. But if these are not only going to be privately owned companies then the reliance on international car makers in terms of product development needs to be reduced, and a much needed emancipation of state-owned manufacturers from their foreign JV partners must be obtained. How to achieve this will be one of the major challenges of the Central Government in the years ahead.
(責任編輯：宋雙輝)