Anyone in the U.S corn futures market could be forgiven for feeling seasick after the sharp swings of recent weeks. Don't expect the ride to finish anytime soon.
美國玉米期貨市場上如有任何人對近幾周玉米期貨的大幅波動感到頭暈目眩，這都是可以理解的。別以為這種波動會很快結束。
Weather fears have helped Chicago futures for September delivery rebound from a 10% slide sparked by the Department of Agriculture's strong June estimate of domestic stocks and output.
投資者對天氣狀況的擔心促使芝加哥9月份交付的玉米期貨擺脫了暴跌10%的陰影，開始反彈。下跌是由美國農業部6月份對國內庫存和玉米產量的高預期所引發。
Tuesday, the USDA predicted more corn will be used to make ethanol than to feed animals this season for the first time in U.S. history. That is expected to continue, despite the likelihood the government will scrap the 45-cent-a-gallon tax credit for blending ethanol into gasoline.
美國農業部周二預測，該季節將有更多玉米用於製造乙醇而不是用作動物飼料，這是美國歷史上首次出現這種情況。預計這一現象將持續下去，儘管美國政府可能會取消向企業提供的在汽油中摻入乙醇可獲得每加侖45美分的稅收抵免政策。
The USDA also raised its estimate for ending stocks--the amount left at the marketing year's end--by 150 million bushels to 880 million bushels in 2010-11, and to 870 million bushels by 2011-12, both well below market expectations.
此外，美國農業部還將玉米期末庫存(銷售年度末的剩餘庫存量)的估算調高了1.5億蒲式耳，2010/11年度將達到8.8億蒲式耳，2011/12年度將達到8.7億蒲式耳，均遠低於市場預期。
「It is too early to call for an end to the rally in corn, and the recent move by a number of analysts downgrading price forecasts appears premature,」 said Barclays Capital analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan.
巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)分析師Sudakshina Unnikrishnan說，現在認為結束玉米期貨價格的回升為時過早，很多分析師近來都調低了價格預期，這似乎是個倉促之舉。
At Thursday's settlement of $7.164 a bushel, prices are well shy of the record $7.9975 of early June. Analysts point to several elements likely to lift prices.
周四的玉米期貨結算價為每蒲式耳7.164美元，遠未達到6月初創下的7.9975美元的歷史紀錄。分析師指出了可能會提高玉米期貨價格的幾個因素。
First is the weather. The U.S. crop already has suffered planting delays because of heavy rains in the spring. Now, scorching temperatures across the Plains and western Midwest threaten to hurt yields during the crucial pollination period. Stocks already are at a 15-year low, so any dent in production would ripple through the market.
首先是天氣狀況。今年春天美國普降大雨，造成玉米延遲播種。而在目前十分關鍵的授粉時期，美國平原地帶和中西部地區的偏西地帶又豔陽高照，持續高溫可能會影響玉米產量。美國玉米庫存量目前已處於15年的低位，因此如產量再有任何減少，將對市場產生影響。
And markets already are nervous about yields. The USDA kept its yield estimate at 158.7 bushels an acre, the third highest on record. This is likely to be downgraded in August, presenting 「a bullish risk for the 2011-12 balance sheet」 says Rabobank analyst Erin Fitzpatrick, at the same time as the USDA releases planting figures for the flood-hit states of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Montana, which account for 10% to 15% of the national crop.
其次，市場已開始擔心玉米產量問題。美國農業部將其產量估測維持在每英畝(約合0.4公頃)158.7蒲式耳，在歷史紀錄上可謂第三高。荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)分析師菲茨派屈克(Erin Fitzpatrick)說，這一估測可能會在8月份被調低，代表2011/12銷售年度資產負債表可能面臨看漲的可能。與此同時，美國農業部發布了受洪災影響的達科他州、明尼蘇達州和蒙大拿州的玉米播種數據，這三個州的玉米產量佔美國全國玉米產量的10%至15%。
「We expect that this uncertainty will continue to be reflected in elevated price volatility and a higher risk premium that will support prices above our forecast,」 said Goldman Sachs Group.
高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group)說，我們認為有關玉米產量的不確定將繼續通過價格波動幅度加大和風險溢價升高體現出來，這會促使玉米期貨價格高過我們的預期。
Then there is the speculation about demand from China. The USDA quadrupled its estimate of the Asian nation's imports for the next marketing year to 2 million tons after importers bought 540,000 tons of U.S. corn this month in the largest daily purchase since 1995.
再者，還有關於中國需求的猜測。美國農業部已將亞洲國家下一銷售年度的玉米進口量預期調高了三倍，至200萬噸。亞洲進口國本月已從美國購買了54萬噸玉米，創下自1995年以來最大規模的日採購量。
News that Beijing intends to restart its 2.5 billion yuan ($386 million) investment program in large pig farms--the major driver of the country's corn consumption--means China's imports could double that. Any decline in prices recently has been met by higher demand. That looks unlikely to change.
有消息稱北京方面打算投資人民幣25億元(合3.86億美元)，重啟其大型養豬場計劃，而養豬場是推動中國玉米消耗的主要動力，這意味著中國的玉米進口量可能要增加一倍。近來，無論價格下跌多少，需求都不斷增加，這種局面似乎不太可能改變。
Speculative investors have swooped in to buy back into corn's rally. Since Tuesday, funds have increased their length by an estimated 40,000 contracts to around 338,165 contracts. According to research by ANZ Bank, speculative money added 10%, or 60 cents, to prices from June 2010 to May 2011, so more fund interest is likely to drive prices higher for the next few weeks at least.
投機性投資者接玉米價格上漲趁機而入。周二以來，基金增加了估計4萬份玉米期貨合約，使其總合約達到338,165份左右。據澳新銀行(ANZ Bank)的研究報告顯示，2010年6月至2011年5月，投機性資金使玉米期貨價格上漲了10%(約60美分)，所以基金對玉米期貨興趣的提高可能會在至少未來幾周推高玉米期貨的價格。
Still, with millions of extra tons expected to come from Russia, Ukraine, Europe and Argentina in 2011-12, many expect prices to plunge again. 「You've got to remember we're at $7 corn,」 said a senior trader in London. 「Anything that goes against the bullish sentiment could see us fall pretty hard.」
儘管如此，由於來自俄羅斯、烏克蘭、歐洲和阿根廷的數百萬噸玉米預計將在2011/12銷售年度上市，因此很多人認為玉米期貨價格會再次大跌。倫敦的一位高級交易員說，你別忘了現在的玉米價格是7美元，發生任何不利於看漲情緒的事情，都可能讓我們跌得相當慘。