發表於：2011-12-01 16:59:18 作者：明今
來源：Solarbe.com
對德國太陽能市場的需求大幅增長的希望破滅了，中國的多家太陽能廠商第三季度盈利狀況讓人大失所望。接下來的一兩個季度，市場更加難以預測，同時必然會有越來越多的企業被兼併或者破產。
尚德、韓華、阿特斯、晶澳和賽維第三季度均虧損，財務報表中的庫存也消失了，因為市場價格的大幅下跌，庫存的價值消失了。天合光能也面臨同樣的困境。從財務報表中大家都能看到光伏市場正面臨的三大困境：供給過剩、價格暴跌和項目融資困難。很多企業關閉了工廠，減少產能，有的甚至申請破產。前段時間，Solydra, SpectraWatt和Evergreen相繼申請破產。Energy Conversin Devices暫停生產，並計劃年底裁員500人。其他公司，如Q-Cells、SolarWorld、Renewable Energy等要麼消減產量，要麼關閉工廠。這些巨頭們都是如此蕭條的業績，光伏的現狀確實讓人心寒。中國的很多企業也在掙扎在存亡的邊緣。英利卻在不久前開了動員大會，聲稱不裁員、不減薪，有望提前走出寒冬。
施正榮表示，為了重新調整市場供求，光伏行業需要經歷一個動蕩、整合和鞏固的過程。這個行業根本容納不了300多家電池和組件製造商。行業洗牌就是淘汰弱小企業出局的過程，從而讓整個行業更健康的發展。事實上，根據尚德的估計，前六名的電池組件供應商的市場份額由2010年第二季度的26%增加到2011年第二季度的55%。作為中國乃至世界上最大的太陽能電池和組件製造商，尚德預計2012年中期將會再次實現盈利。尚德發布的第三季度的收入為8.09億美元，和第二季度相比下降了2.5%，但和去年相比提高了8.9%。第三季度出貨量比第二季度增加了16%，比2010年第三季度增加了32%。淨虧損達1.16億美元，每股損失達0.64美元。而今年的第二季度淨虧損為2.59億美元，去年第三季度淨收入為家3310萬美元。尚德和其他廠商一樣，一直都強調努力消減成本，提高產品性能，調整產能，爭取客戶渡過難關。尚德、韓華和晶科都曾預期第三季度在德國的銷售額將會增加，但是由於需求下降讓他們的希望化為泡影。
賽維本來是多晶矽和晶片的生產商，最近幾年才開始生產電池和組件。最近也受到了市場的沉重打擊，業績一直不佳。該公司第三季度銷售額為4.71億美元，和第一季度相比下降了6%，和去年同期相比下降了32%。第三季度虧損擴大到1.14億美元，而第二季度的淨虧損為8770萬美元，2010年的第三季度虧損為9340萬美元。另外，晶澳太陽能第三季度營收為3.880億美元，淨虧損為5895萬美元，而去年同期淨利潤為人民幣5.14億元；阿特斯太陽能第三季度淨營收4.996億美元，淨虧損為4390萬美元，去年同期淨利潤為2030萬美元。英利第三季淨營收6.677億美元，淨虧損達2830萬美元在已經公布三季報的10家中概光伏股中，僅有大全新能源和晶科能源兩家公司利潤為正值，其中，大全新能源第三季度實現利潤額為1990萬美元，晶科能源實現淨利潤1070萬美元，但上述數字相比去年同期都有了大幅下挫。
光伏市場的崩潰源於歐洲市場的不景氣。今年年初，義大利和法國新上網電價政策的遲遲不肯出臺，這耽擱了光伏安裝的進展，也影響的買方的購買決定。德國按計劃降低了上網電價補貼，由於補貼消減幅度大，有人甚至預測今年的安裝量可能比2010年還少。正是由於義大利、法國的政策不確定性和德國的市場需求下降，光伏組件的庫存節節攀高，價格下跌比預期的還快。幾個月前，太陽能組件的價格今年已經下跌了30-40%。尚德表示，其產品的平均售價從第二季度到第三季度下降了16%，預計第三季度到第四季度的下降幅度為10%以下。
但是，歐洲仍將是最大的市場。因此，各個國家的上網電價政策和政治經濟狀況也將繼續影響太陽能光伏市場未來的發展。德國已經計劃2012年消減15%的補貼。一些歐洲國家也一直鼓勵屋頂小型光伏系統的安裝。太陽能光伏廠家已經把目光瞄準了下一個快速增長的市場，如美國，中國和印度。印度已經推出了國家太陽能計劃，並且獲得了美國進出口銀行的貸款支持，安裝的組件也來自美國的公司，如First Solar, Abound Solar. 2011年，預計中國和美國的光伏安裝量都約為2吉瓦。2012年，中國市場的安裝量肯定不會低於2011年。中美市場的繁榮將對全球光伏市場的復甦起到巨大作用。我們不希望所謂的「傾銷」影響的綠色能源的未來。
Tough Time for PV Industry in 2012
Hopes that demand for solar energy equipment in Germany would rise significantly were dashed and led to disappointing third-quarter earnings, reported several Chinese manufactures on Tuesday. The market will continue to see a bumper crop of solar panels in the next quarter or two, along with more mergers or potential bankruptcies.
Suntech Power, Hanwha Solar, Canadian Solar and LDK Solar all posted losses for the third quarter and many included inventory write-offs in their financial statements because their goods have lost values as a result of the rapidly declining prices in the market. The story is the same for Trina Solar, who reported third-quarter losses a day earlier. The financial pictures given by the companies now follow a now well-known tale of a market bedeviled by oversupply, collapsing prices and tightened project finances throughout this year.
Many companies have closed factories, reduced production or filed bankruptcies. Solyndra, SpectraWatt and Evergreen Solar filed for bankruptcies within weeks of each other this year. Energy Conversion Devices suspended manufacturing and planned to lay off 500 workers by the end of this year. Companies such as Renewable Energy Corp., SolarWorld, and Q-Cells have cut back production or shuttered factories. China companies are also struggling for survival. But, Yingli Solar announced recently that it would lay off no workers and cut no salary, which was expected to walk out of the PV trough soon.
「To recalibrate supply and demand, we believe the industry needs to go through a process of calculation, liquidation and then consolidation. The industry simply can’t support 300-plus cell and module manufacturers,」 said Suntech CEO Zhengrong Shi.In fact, by Suntech’s own estimate, the market share of top six solar cell/module suppliers increased from 26 percent in the second quarter of 2010 to 55 percent in the second quarter of 2011, Shi said. Suntech, the largest solar cell and panel maker in China, expects to start making a profit again by the middle of 2012, he added.
Suntech posted $809.9 million in third-quarter revenue, down 2.5 percent from the second quarter but a boost of 8.9 percent year over year. Product shipment grew 16 percent from the second quarter and 36 percent from the third quarter of 2010. Net losses reached $116.4 million, or $0.64 per share, during the third quarter, compared with a net loss of $259.5 million in the second quarter and a net income of $33.1 million in the third quarter last year. Suntech and other manufacturers have emphasized their efforts to cut costs, improve their products』 performance, adjust their supply with demand and convince customers to stick with them. Suntech, Hanwha and JinkoSolar both had expected sales to pick up in Germany during the third quarter, but the demand fell short of their expectations.
LDK, a polysilicon and wafer producer, who added cell and panel manufacturing to its repertoire in recent years, has been pummeled by the market forces and was recently dropped. It posted $471.9 million in sales for third quarter, down six percent from the first quarter and 32 percent from the year-ago period. Losses widened to $114.5 million, of $0.87 per share, for the third quarter, compared with a net loss of $87.7 million in the second quarter and $93.4 million ($0.71 per share) in the third quarter of 2010.
Europe has been the epicenter of the market collapse. Delays by Italian and French governments to set new levels of feed-in tariffs earlier this year prompted a pause in installations and delayed buying decisions. Germany lowered feed-in tariffs as planned, but the cuts were significant and drew predictions that the market would install fewer megawatts than it did during 2010.The uncertainties surrounding policies in Italy and France — and the lowered demand expected in Germany — caused a pile up of solar panels, and prices began to drop faster than expected.A few months back, analysts said solar panel prices had already dropped 30-40 percent this year. Suntech said the average selling price of its products fell 16 percent from the second to the third quarter, and it expects a decline in the "low teens" from the third to the fourth quarter.
But Europe will remain the largest market, so the fate of feed-in tariffs in various countries and their political and financial health will continue to shape the growth of the solar industry. Germany already plans to reduce its feed-in tariffs by 15 percent in the coming year. European countries also have been structuring their incentives to favor smaller, rooftop installations. But solar companies also have begun to peg countries such as the United States, China and India as the next fast-growing markets. India’s own national solar policy, coupled with financial support from the Export-Import Bank of the United States has issued loans to Indian companies to install solar panels made by American companies such as First Solar and Abound Solar. It’s estimated that both China and United States will install about 2GW PV systems and will not less than this number in 2012. So, we hope so-called 「dumping」 will never brings clouds to green energy development in the near future.
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