Sink or swim
成與敗——談談航空母艦
翻譯：鳳梨是只胖柯基
校閱：Yates
圖源：網絡，版權歸原作者所有，侵刪
When it comes to aircraft-carriers, bigger isn’t better
說到航空母艦，不是越大越好
「NO PIECE OF hardware better exemplifies America’s military might than an aircraft-carrier,」 declare the memoirs of Ashton Carter, America’s defence secretary in 2015-17. Nor does any other piece of hardware so plainly exemplify what is wrong with America’s military thinking. Aircraft-carriers are the largest and most expensive machines in the history of warfare. A new American Ford-class ship costs $13bn—more than the annual defence budget of Poland or Pakistan. However, as precision missiles become faster, more accurate and more numerous, these beasts look increasingly like giant floating targets.
美國2015-2017年度的國防部長阿什頓·卡特（Ashton Carter）在回憶錄中寫道:「沒有什麼比航空母艦更能體現美國的軍事實力了。」其他任何一件硬體也不能如此清楚地闡明美國軍事思維的問題。航空母艦是戰爭史上最大最昂貴的機器。一艘新的美國福特級軍艦耗資130億美元，超過了波蘭和巴基斯坦的年度國防預算。然而，隨著精確飛彈變得更快、更精確、數量更多，這些龐然大物越來越像巨大的浮動目標。
Although America has by far the world’s largest fleet of carriers—11 of the full-sized sort, plus half a dozen smaller ones—their appeal is global, and growing. China’s first domestically built carrier will be commissioned within months. Britain’s second modern carrier began its sea trials in September. Even pacifist Japan is converting two destroyers to carry jets, for the first time since the second world war.
儘管美國目前擁有世界上最大的航母艦隊——11艘全尺寸航母，外加6艘小型航母——而且它們的吸引力是全球性的，而且還在不斷增長。中國首艘國產航母將在幾個月內服役。英國的第二艘現代航空母艦9月份開始試航。就連奉行和平主義的日本也將兩艘驅逐艦改裝成搭載噴氣式飛機，專門設計建造的航母，這是二戰以來的首次。
Aircraft-carriers have proved their worth in recent years. Many armed forces watched admiringly as American naval jets did the lion’s share of bombing in the early months of war in Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 (and again in 2014). Land bases were often unavailable because of awkward geography or recalcitrant allies.
近年來，航空母艦已經證明了它們的價值。在2001年的阿富汗戰爭和2003年的伊拉克戰爭(以及2014年的伊拉克戰爭)的頭幾個月裡，美國海軍戰機在轟炸中發揮了最大的作用，許多武裝部隊羨慕地看著這一幕。由於地理位置不佳或盟友頑固不化，地面基地常常無法使用。
But the seas off enemy shores look ever less safe. Russia and China are both developing long-range missiles that are manoeuvrable and accurate enough to hit large ships at sea. China’s DF-21D, an anti-ship ballistic missile that can travel over 1,500km (950 miles), is already a threat. Several countries are building cheaper anti-ship cruise missiles, which fly shorter distances but can be launched from planes. Anti-ship missiles are growing in range, precision and number. By one estimate, an American naval force within 2,000km of China might have to parry 640 incoming weapons in a single salvo.
但是，在敵人海岸外的海域，似乎越來越不安全了。俄羅斯和中國都在研發遠程飛彈，這種飛彈的機動性和精確性足以打擊海上的大型船隻。中國的DF-21D反艦彈道飛彈可以飛行1500公裡(950英裡)以上，已經是一個威脅。一些國家正在製造更便宜的反艦巡航飛彈，這種飛彈飛行距離較短，但可以從飛機上發射。反艦飛彈的射程、精度和數量都在增長。據估計，在距離中國2000公裡以內的美國海軍需要一次性抵擋640件來犯的飛彈威脅。
Though guiding such missiles onto a distant moving target is tricky, no navy will be keen on putting several billion dollars and thousands of sailors in peril. Carriers have become too big to fail. As a result, they will probably have to remain at least 1,000km away from shore, a distance that their warplanes cannot cross without refuelling. That could have grave implications for America’s ability to project power across the Pacific—and so for all its allies (see Briefing). Carriers will also have to be cocooned with destroyers and frigates, which will absorb most of the resources of smaller navies, like those of Britain and France.
雖然將這種飛彈引導到一個遙遠的移動目標是棘手的，沒有海軍會熱衷於把數十億美元和數以千計的水手置於危險之中。航空母艦已經因為太大而不能隨意關停。因此，他們可能不得不在離岸至少1000公裡的地方停留，這是他們的戰機不加燃料就無法跨越的距離。這可能會嚴重影響美國在整個太平洋地區投射力量的能力，也會影響到它的所有盟友。航空母艦還需要被驅逐艦和護衛艦包圍，這將吸收英國和法國等小型海軍的大部分資源。
Carriers are not entirely obsolete. Most wars will not be great-power clashes. They will remain useful against foes which lack modern missile systems. Even in intense conflicts, warships will require air power to protect them from the predations of enemy ships and aircraft. As long as navies have surface ships, they will want to be able to fly planes above them.
航空母艦並不是完全過時。大多數戰爭不會是大國之間的衝突。航空母艦將繼續對缺乏現代飛彈系統的敵人提供有效打擊。即使在激烈的衝突中，軍艦也需要空中力量來保護它們免受敵人船隻和飛機的掠奪。只要海軍有水面艦艇，他們就想在水面上駕駛飛機。
But what sort of planes? Even as missiles force carriers farther offshore, the average combat range of their air wings has shrunk, from 2,240km in 1956 to around 1,000km today. (Modern munitions travel farther, but do not make up the difference.) The obvious remedy is to use drones that can fly longer, riskier missions than human pilots, allowing their host carriers to keep a safe distance away. But the Pentagon unwisely scrapped its programme for such a drone in 2016, replacing it with one that would merely refuel inhabited planes.
但是什麼樣的飛機呢?即使飛彈迫使航空母艦遠離海岸，它們的平均戰鬥距離也從1956年的2240公裡縮小到今天的1000公裡左右。(現代彈藥可以飛得更遠，但無法彌補差距。)顯而易見的解決辦法是使用比人類飛行員飛行時間更長、風險更大的任務的無人機，讓它們的主航母保持安全距離。但五角大樓在2016年不明智地取消了這種無人機的計劃，代之以一種只會給有人操縱的飛機加油的無人機。
Aircraft-carriers, like the warplanes on them, belong to a class of large, vastly expensive weapons that military types call 「exquisite」. A more homely approach to military technology is warranted. Smaller, cheaper and, where possible, unmanned systems could be procured in larger numbers, dispersed more widely and used more daringly. Such forces may lack the prestige of massive warships. But they are better adapted to a world in which the projection of military power is growing ever harder.
航空母艦，就像它們上面的戰機一樣，屬於一種被軍方稱為「精緻」的巨大而昂貴的武器。對軍事技術採取一種更家常的方式是必要的。更小、更便宜，而且在可能的情況下，無人駕駛系統可以被大量採購、更廣泛地分散和更大膽地使用。但是這些無人機部隊可能缺乏大型戰艦所擁有的威懾力。但在一個軍事力量輻射越來越困難的世界，無人機們可能更加適用。
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