今天繼續分享經濟學人文章「A different dystopia: July 2030」精讀筆記。一起讀外刊，學英語，看世界。
第一段精讀筆記：讀外刊：在未來，機器人太多會成為阻擋社會繁榮的威脅嗎？
第二段原文
A different dystopia July 2030（2）
01:02來自外刊譯言
At the height of the concern about the coming jobs apocalypse, in the late 2010s, the most vulnerable people were thought to be older, unskilled workers. In 2017 the McKinsey Global Institute, part of a business consultancy, predicted that 800m people in 46 countries, or roughly a third of the workforce, could lose their jobs to machines by 2030. Older workers were thought to be especially vulnerable because they were engaged in repetitive, unskilled manufacturing, the kind that was easiest to automate. In 2018 Mercer, another consultancy, used an index of risk developed by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin School to calculate that three-quarters of Chinese workers aged over 50 were at risk of being replaced by robots. In America just over half of older workers ran the same risk, while in Germany and Italy about 60% did.
（1）At the height of the concern about the coming jobs apocalypse, in the late 2010s, the most vulnerable people were thought to be older, unskilled workers.
At the height of在…頂點；在…的頂峰或鼎盛時期例句1：THERE I was, at the height of the great Disco Summer, selling hot dogs in the shadow of a six-story, elephant-shaped building on the shores of Margate, N.J. 那是迪斯科音樂正值流行的夏天，在新澤西州馬蓋特市的海灘邊，我在一座大象形狀的六層建築的陰影下賣熱狗。
例句2：At the height ofthe recent turmoil in the Chinese stockmarkets Apple’s boss, Tim Cook, reassured investors that 「I continue to believe China represents an unprecedented opportunity over the long term.」 在近期中國股市動蕩最劇烈之時，蘋果的老闆蒂姆·庫克（Tim Cook）安撫投資者說：「我仍然相信，從長期看，中國有著前所未有的機會。」
例句3：在鬱達夫《故都的秋》中，「像橄欖又像鴿蛋似的這棗子顆兒，在小橢圓形的細葉中間，顯出淡綠微黃的顏色的時候，正是秋的全盛時期；」 It is at the height ofautumn that jujubes, shaped like dates or pigeon eggs, make their appearance in a light yellowish-green amongst tiny elliptic leaves.
coming ：happening soon即將發生的，即將來臨的apocalypse /'pklps/ ：a situation in which a lot of people die or suffer, and a lot of damage is done大災難「the Apocalypse 」指《聖經》所述的末世，世界末日；《聖經·新約》中的最後一章是聖約翰（ St. John ）所寫的「啟示錄」。據說耶穌基督的十二門徒之一聖約翰被羅馬皇帝流放至帕特摩斯島（ Patmos ）時，將主給他顯示的異象記錄下來，並預言了主 的降臨和世界末日來臨時的景象。該書的希臘名是《 apokalyptein 》，在1230年的英語版本中被譯為《The Book of Apocalypse 》，在1380年的英語版本中被譯為《 The Book of Revelation 》。英語單詞 apocalypse 就源自希臘語 apokalyptein。
例句1：The nuclear bomb attack on Hiroshima during World War II can be called an apocalypse because the devastation was so severe and so many lives were lost. 第二次世界大戰期間廣島遭受的原子彈襲擊可以說是一場「apocalypse」（大災難），因為破壞非常嚴重，許多人失去了生命。
例句2：紐約時報一篇文章有關「走紅社交媒體的華裔總統競選人楊安澤」，我們看看下面這句話： He was entering the race with little name recognition, a nonexistent war chest and a quirky platform centered on his claim of an impending robot apocalypse. 他宣布參加競選時，幾乎沒人知道他是誰，也沒有競選專款，卻有一個古怪的競選政綱，其核心是他宣稱的即將到來的機器人末日。
vulnerable: weak and easily hurt physically or emotionally （身體上或感情上）脆弱的，易受…傷害的例句：Emperor penguins — the world’s largest — breed and molt on sea ice, chunks of frozen seawater. Awkward on land, they cannot climb icy cliffs and so are vulnerable to warming weather and high winds whipping across the ice. 帝企鵝——世界上最大的企鵝——在大塊被凍住的海冰上繁殖和換毛。它們在陸地上很笨拙，無法攀爬冰崖，因此很容易受到氣候變暖和大風掠過冰面的影響。
unskilled: not having or needing special skills or training 無特長的；無（需）特別技能的；無（需）專門訓練的
(2) ①In 2017 ②the McKinsey Global Institute, ③part of a business consultancy, ④predicted ⑤that 800m people in 46 countries, or roughly a third of the workforce, could lose their jobs to machines by 2030.
長句分析：① 是狀語，②是主語，③是②的同位語，④是謂語，⑤是that引導的賓語從句，作predicted的賓語.
a business consultancy一家商業諮詢公司predict ：預言，預料，預測單詞助記：pre-提前，-dict-說
lose sth (to sb):to have sth taken away by sb/sth 被…奪去例句：The company has lost a lot of business to its competitors. 公司的許多生意都被對手奪走了。
（3）Older workers were thought to be especially vulnerable because they were engaged in repetitive, unskilled manufacturing, the kind that was easiest to automate. In 2018 Mercer, another consultancy, used an index of risk developed by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin School to calculate that three-quarters of Chinese workers aged over 50 were at risk of being replaced by robots. In America just over half of older workers ran the same risk, while in Germany and Italy about 60% did.
repetitive: done many times in the same way, and boring重複乏味的run the same risk冒同樣的風險長句分析： ①In 2018② Mercer, ③another consultancy, ④used an index of risk ⑤developed by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin School ⑥to calculate ⑦that three-quarters of Chinese workers aged over 50 were at risk of being replaced by robots.
① 是狀語，②是主語，③是②的同位語，④是謂語部分，⑤是過去分詞短語作為an index of risk的後置定語，⑥充當④中動作used的目的狀語，而⑦是that引導的賓語從句，作⑥中calculate的賓語。
官譯：人們對工作大災難即將到來的擔憂在2010年代末達到頂峰，當時認為年長的非技術工人最容易受影響。一家商業諮詢公司下屬的麥肯錫全球研究所在2017年預測，到2030年，46個國家中有8億人（約佔勞動力的三分之一）可能被機器搶走工作。他們認為年長工人特別容易受到衝擊，因為這些人從事的是重複性的、無需特別技能的製造業，最容易實現自動化。2018年，另一家諮詢公司美世（Mercer）利用牛津馬丁學院的卡爾·弗雷（Carl Frey）和麥可·奧斯本（Michael Osborne）開發的一種風險指數計算出，50歲以上的中國工人有四分之三可能被機器人取代。在美國，面臨這一風險的年長工人剛剛超過一半，而德國和義大利的數字在60%左右。
以上。
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