中國石化新聞網訊 據1月1日Rigzone報導，液化天然氣貿易商預計，在2019新冠肺炎疫情導致價格大幅波動之後，2021年液化天然氣需求將迅速復甦。
因主要進口國天氣變冷、主要生產中心停電以及全球航線擁堵等因素，亞洲現貨價格已推至2014年以來的最高水平，這也是4月份創紀錄低點的六倍多，使亞洲液化天然氣成為2020年表現最好的主要大宗商品。
由於各國都在尋找廉價、可靠和更清潔的煤炭替代品，對這種用於供暖和發電的燃料的需求增長速度快於其他任何化石燃料。疫情使2020年的增長脫軌，中國和印度正在成為主要的需求來源。
華盛頓貝克博茨律師事務所合伙人Tom Holmberg表示:「許多國家都在尋求進口液化天然氣，我仍然認為我們將看到液化天然氣市場的增長。」
以下是2021年可能對液化天然氣市場產生影響的主要幾方面因素。
一是需求復甦不平衡。根據彭博社彙編的船舶跟蹤數據顯示，2020年全球液化天然氣進口量大致與前一年持平。這對於一個自2016年以來年增長率達10%的行業來說是一個巨大的衝擊。不過，預計全球天然氣需求在2021年將恢復增長。埃森哲(Accenture)能源業務董事總經理馬納斯·薩塔帕蒂(Manas Satapathy)表示，LNG需求約佔總需求的10%，根據巴基斯坦、印度和孟加拉國的表現，需求可能會更快反彈。
自疫情最嚴重時期以來，亞洲的液化天然氣產能大多已恢復，該地區的液化天然氣需求明年將大幅反彈。在2020年的最後一天，亞洲液化天然氣現貨價格(日韓基準)自2014年4月以來首次反彈至每百萬英熱15美元以上。Holmberg稱:"亞洲需求增長速度之快令人興奮。"
不過，歐洲的情況則大不相同，各國都在努力應對新出現的感染病例激增和能源需求的削弱。薩塔帕蒂表示，2021年，非洲大陸將迎來緩慢的復甦。
此外，因歐洲主要依賴於儲存和管道天然氣運輸，亞塞拜然的一條新管道和即將完工的北溪2號項目可能會推動天然氣運力增長。
二是供應方面問題。從澳大利亞到卡達到馬來西亞的LNG出口設施的計劃外維護，導致今年下半年市場比預期更為緊張。巴拿馬運河航行的延誤限制了對亞洲的供應。如果這些供應中斷持續到2021年，那麼價格可能仍將遠高於當前水平。
佔全球液化天然氣出口60%的天然氣出口國論壇預計，2021年供應量將從2020年的2%升至2.5%，增長6%至7%。並在其短期展望中表示，與氣態燃料進口相比，液化天然氣貿易對2021年危機的抵禦能力較高。
據活躍在液化天然氣領域的兩家最大的貿易公司Vitol SA和託克集團有限公司表示，2021年液化天然氣市場可能仍將供大於求。除此之外，他們預計市場將趨緊。
與此同時，交易員們將密切關注美國液化天然氣買家們2021年是否會放棄任何貨物。今年夏天，在疫情衝擊歐洲和亞洲的現貨價格後，約有200批貨物被取消。儘管2021年這種情況不太可能重演，但交易員預計一些訂單的取消將有助於平衡市場。
隨著新設施投入使用，美國天然氣出口每月都在刷新紀錄。但需求的任何下降都可能迫使供應商關閉出口。該國已經成為一個搖擺不定的供應國，因為它的合同允許被取消，這使出口能夠迅速對動蕩的市場做出反應。
三是能源轉型升級方面。環保人士越來越把天然氣視為主要的汙染源。在多年專注於煤炭和石油之後，他們開始將注意力轉向如何消除所有化石燃料的排放。這一轉變促使供應商、買家和運輸商考慮採取綠色行動，清理與甲烷和溫室氣體排放有關的活動。
Fusco表示，液化天然氣貨物生命周期中一半的碳足跡來自上遊板塊。這家液化天然氣生產商正在推動提高燃料碳排放的透明度，並表示:「我們的客戶將希望確保他們能夠驗證和審核我們告訴他們的碳排放特徵。」
今年，全球首個要求具有碳排放聲明的供應協議已籤署，與此同時，所謂的碳中和貨物開始進入中國和日本，各國制定了有效實現零排放的宏偉目標。
王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone
原文如下：
LNG Market Readies for Swift Recovery
Liquefied natural gas traders anticipate a swift demand recovery in 2021 after a year in which the coronavirus pandemic prompted dramatic price swings.
Colder weather in key importing nations, outages at major production hubs and congestion along global shipping routes already have combined to push spot prices in Asia to the highest level since 2014. That’s a more than sixfold jump from a record low in April, making Asian LNG the best performer among major commodities in 2020.
Demand for the fuel used in heating and power generation is growing faster than for any other fossil fuel as nations look for a cheap, reliable and cleaner alternative to coal. The pandemic derailed that growth for 2020, but China and India are emerging as major sources of demand.
「A lot of countries are looking to import LNG,」 Tom Holmberg, a partner at law firm Baker Botts LLP in Washington D.C., said by phone. 「I still think we are going to see growth in the LNG market.」
Below are the key areas likely to shape the market in 2021:
Uneven Demand Recovery
Global LNG imports in 2020 were roughly equal to the previous year, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That was a big disappointment for an industry that has enjoyed 10% annual growth rate since 2016.
However, global gas demand is expected to resume growth next year. LNG demand, which makes up roughly 10% of the total, may rebound even faster, depending on how Pakistan, India and Bangladesh perform, said Manas Satapathy, a managing director in Accenture’s Energy business.
Shipments of the fuel into Asia have mostly recovered since the height of the pandemic, and the region’s LNG demand will rebound sharply next year, according to S&P Global Platts.
On the last day of 2020, spot Asian LNG price - the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark - rallied above $15 per million British thermal units for the first time since April 2014.
「It has been interesting to see how quickly Asian demand seems to have ramped up,」 Holmberg said.
The picture in Europe is very different as countries grapple with a new surge of infections and lockdowns that sap energy demand. The continent is headed for a 「very neutral recovery」 in 2021, according to Satapathy.
Europe mainly relies on storage and pipeline gas shipments, which may be boosted with flows from a new link from Azerbaijan and the controversial Nord Stream 2 project that’s nearing completion.
Supply Woes
Unplanned maintenance at LNG export facilities from Australia to Qatar to Malaysia has led to a tighter than expected market in the second half of the year. And delays in navigating the Panama Canal curbed supplies to Asia. If these disruptions persist well into the year, then prices could remain elevated well above current levels.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum, which represents 60% of global LNG exports, expects supply to climb by 6% to 7% next year, up from 2% to 2.5% in 2020. LNG trade was much more resilient to this year’s challenges than imports in the fuel’s gaseous form, the group said in its short-term outlook.
The market will likely remain oversupplied next year, according to Vitol SA and Trafigura Group Ltd., two of the biggest trading houses active in LNG. Beyond that they expect the market to tighten.
More Cancellations?
Traders will be watching to see if buyers of U.S. LNG scrap any cargoes next year. About 200 cargoes were canceled in the summer after the pandemic hit spot prices in Europe and Asia. While there’s unlikely to be a repeat of that in 2021, traders do expect some cancellations to help balance the market.
American gas exports are rising to fresh records every month as new facilities come online. But any dip in demand could force suppliers to shut-in cargoes. The nation has become a swing supplier because its contracts allow for scrapping deliveries, which enables exports to quickly respond to volatile markets.
Green Ambition
Environmentalists are increasingly looking at natural gas as a major polluter. After years of focusing on coal and oil, they’re turning their attention to how to zero out emissions from all fossil fuels. That shift has suppliers, buyers and shippers thinking green initiatives to clean up activities linked to methane and greenhouse gas emissions.
Half of the carbon footprint in the life cycle of an LNG cargo comes from upstream, Fusco said. The LNG producer is pushing for more transparency on carbon emissions for the fuel.
「Our customers are going to want to be sure that they can validate and audit what we’re telling them our carbon signature is,」 he said.
The world’s first supply contract that required a declaration of emissions was signed this year while so-called carbon-neutral cargoes started flowing to China and Japan as nations outline ambitious targets to effectively zero out emissions.