169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 別留念昨天了，把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢，沒人替你堅強。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你沒有夢想，那麼你只能為別人的夢想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你給自己機會，你會發現你的世界可以很美麗。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 贏與輸的差別通常是--不放棄。(華特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡，但我獨一無二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜歡那些讓我笑起來的人，就算是我不想笑的時候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 為你的生命想一個全新劇本，並去傾情出演吧！177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做個悲傷的智者，不如做個開心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未來屬於那些相信夢想之美的人。(埃莉諾·羅斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使沒有人為你鼓掌，也要優雅的謝幕，感謝自己的認真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 別讓夢想只停留在夢裡。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 沒有笑聲的一天是浪費了的一天。(卓別林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，見的世面多了，你會發現原來在意的那些結根本算不了什麼。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功關鍵都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 開心一點吧，管它會怎樣。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好計劃勝過明天的完美計劃。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能！「不可能」的意思是：「不，可能。」(奧黛麗·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的，不管你的境遇如何，你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 無論多麼艱難，都要繼續前進，因為只有你放棄的那一刻，你才輸了。 When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, w類似於 Mobius Band, 克萊因瓶不可定向。但 Mobius 帶可嵌入 陽系裡的所有天體牢牢地吸引在它的周圍，使它們不離不散、井然有序地繞自己旋轉。同時，太陽又作為一顆普通恆星，帶領它的成員，萬古不息地繞銀河系的中心運動。[39] 太陽的半徑為696000千米，質量為1.989×10^30kg，中心溫度約15000000 ℃，。[40] 如果一個人站在太陽表面，那麼他的體重將會是在地球上的20倍。[41] 現代星雲假說根據觀測資料和理論計算，提出：太陽系原始星雲是巨大的星際雲瓦解的一個小雲，一開始就在自轉，並在自身引力作用下收縮，中心部分形成太陽，外部演化成星雲盤，星雲盤以後形成行星。目前，現代星雲說又存在不同學派，這些學派之間還存在著許多差別，有待進一步研究和證實。[42] 金星是離太陽的第二顆行星，夜空中亮度僅次於月球。[43] 金星上沒有水，大氣中嚴重缺氧，二氧化碳佔97%以上，空氣中有一層厚達20千米至30千米的濃硫酸雲，地面溫度從不低於400℃，是個名副其實的「煉獄」般世界。金星地面的大氣壓強為地球的90倍，相當於地球海洋中900米深度時的壓強。金星大氣主要由二氧化碳等溫室氣體組成，失控的溫室效應，是導致金星極端氣候的主要原因。由於金星沒有內稟磁層保護，誘發磁層中磁場重聯釋放的巨大能量，使得金星大氣被加熱後加速逃逸。科學界認為，金星上大氣的逃逸，是造成金星上缺水而被富含二氧化碳的稠密大氣所籠罩，從而導致嚴重的溫室效應的原因。[44] 木星是離太陽第五顆行星，而且是最大的一顆，比所有其他的行星 木星及其衛星歐羅巴（木衛二） 木星及其衛星歐羅巴（木衛二） [45] 的合質量大2倍（地球的318倍），直徑142987km。它是氣態行星沒有實體表面，由90%的氫和10%的氦（原子數之比, 75/25%的質量比）及微量的甲烷、水、氨水和「石頭」組成。這與形成整個太陽系的原始的太陽系星雲的組成十分相似。木星可能有一個石質的內核，相當於10－15個地球的質量。內核上則是大部分的行星物質集結地，以液態氫的形式存在。液態金屬氫由離子化的質子與電子組成（類似於太陽的內部，不過溫度低多了）。木星共有67顆木衛。按距離木星中心由近及遠的次序為：木衛十六、木衛十四、木衛五、木衛十五、木衛一、木衛二、木衛三、木衛四、木衛十三、木衛六、木衛十、木衛七、木衛十二、木衛十一、木衛八和木衛九。[46] 水星是最接近太陽的行星。水星的半徑約為2440公裡，在八大行星中是最小的。水星晝夜溫差極大，白天攝氏 430 度，晚上約可達零下170 度，是太陽系八大行星中溫差最大的一個行星。[47] 水星的外大氣層非常稀薄，是由水星表面和太陽風中的原子和離子構成。[48] 科學家確認水星表面含有豐富的碳，認為碳是水星表面呈黑色的原因，水星表面的巖石是由低重量百分比的石墨碳構成。[49] 「好奇號」火星探測器在火星表面採集樣本 「好奇號」火星探測器在火星表面採集樣本 [50] 火星是地球的近鄰，是太陽系由內往外數第四顆行星。直徑6794km，體積為地球的15%，質量為地球的11%。火星表面是一個荒涼的世界，空氣中二氧化碳佔了95%。火星大氣十分稀薄，密度還不到地球大氣的1%，因而根本無法保存熱量。這導致火星表面溫度極低，很少超過0℃，在夜晚，最低溫度則可達到-123℃。火星被稱為紅色的行星，這是因為它表面布滿了氧化物，因而呈現出鐵鏽紅色。其表面的大部分地區都是含有大量的紅色氧化物的大沙漠，還有赭色的礫石地和凝固的熔巖流。火星上常常有猛烈的大風，大風揚起沙塵能形成可以覆蓋火星全球的特大型沙塵暴。每次沙塵暴可持續數個星期。火星兩極的冰冠和火星大氣中含有水份。從火星表面獲得的探測數據證明，在遠古時期，火星曾經有過液態的水，而且水量特別大。[51] 土星是離太陽第六顆行星，直徑120536㎞，體積僅次於木星。主要由氫組成，還有少量的氦與微量元素，內部的核心包括巖石和冰，外圍由數層金屬氫和氣體包裹著。地球距離土星13億公裡。土星的引力比地球強2.5倍，能夠牽引太陽系內其它行星，使地球處於一個橢圓軌道中運行，並且與太陽保持適當距離，適宜生命繁衍。當土星軌道傾斜20度將使地球軌道比金星軌道更接近太陽，同時，這將導致火星完全離開太陽系。[52] 土星是已知唯一密度小於水的行星，假如能夠將土星放入一個巨大的浴池之中，它將可以漂浮起來。土星有一個巨大的磁氣圈和一個狂風肆虐的大氣層，赤道附近的風速可達1800千米/時。在環繞土星運行的31顆衛星中間，土衛六是最大的一顆，比水星和月球還大，也是太陽系中唯一擁有濃厚大氣層的衛星。[53] 天王星是離太陽第七顆行星，51118km。體積約為地球的65倍，在九大行星中僅次於木星和土星。天王星的大氣層中83%是氫，15%為氦，2%為甲烷以及少量的乙炔和碳氫化合物。上層大氣層的甲烷吸收紅光，使天王星呈現藍綠色。大氣在固定緯度集結成雲層，類似於木星和土星在緯線上鮮豔的條狀色帶。天王星雲層的平均溫度為零下193攝氏度。質量為8.6810±13×10²⁵kg，相當於地球質量的14.63倍。密度較小，只有1.24克/立方釐米，為海王星密度值的74.7%。[54] 恆星 恆星 海王星是離太陽的第八顆行星，直徑49532千米。海王星繞太陽運轉的軌道半徑為45億千米，公轉一周需要165年。海王星的直徑和天王星類似，質量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大氣成分都是氫和氦，內部結構也極為相近，所以說海王星與天王星是一對孿生兄弟。[55] 海王星有太陽系最強烈的風，測量到的時速高達2100公裡。海王星雲頂的溫度是－218 °C，是太陽系最冷的地區之一。海王星核心的溫度約為7000 °C，可以和太陽的表面比較。海王星在1846年9月23日被發現，是唯一利用數學預測而非有計劃的觀測發現的行星。[56] 冥王星，位於海王星以外的柯伊伯帶內側，是柯伊伯帶中已知的最大天體。[57] 直徑約為2370±20km，是地球直徑的18.5%。[58] 2006年8月24日，國際天文學聯合會大會24日投票決定，不再將傳統九大行星之一的冥王星視為行星，而將其列入「矮行星」。大會通過的決議規定，「行星」指的是圍繞太陽運轉、自身引力足以克服其剛體力而使天體呈圓球狀、能夠清除其軌道附近其他物體的天體。在太陽系傳統的「九大行星」中，只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合這些要求。冥王星由於其軌道與海王星的軌道相交，不符合新的行星定義，因此被自動降級為「矮行星」。[59] 冥王星的表面溫度大概在-238到-228℃之間。冥王星的成份由70%巖石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆蓋著一些固體氮以及少量 衛星拍月球經過地球，可見清晰月球背面 衛星拍月球經過地球，可見清晰月球背面 [60] 的固體甲烷和一氧化碳，冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有機物質或是由宇宙射線引發的光化學反應。冥王星的大氣層主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷組成。大氣極其稀薄，地面壓強只有少量微帕。[61] 地球是離太陽第三顆行星，是我們人類的家鄉，儘管地球是太陽系中一顆普通的行星，但它在許多方面都是獨一無二的。比如，它是太陽系中唯一一顆面積大部分被水覆蓋的行星，也是目前所知唯一一顆有生命存在的星球。質量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤，表面溫度：t = - 30 ～ +45。[62] 英國科研人員在《天體生物學》雜誌上報告說，如果沒有小行星撞擊等可能劇烈改變環境的事件發生，地球適宜人類居住的時間還剩約17.5億年，不過人為造成的氣候變化可能縮短這一時間。[63] 彗星是由灰塵和冰塊組成的太陽系中的一類小天體，繞日運動。[64] 科學家使用探測器對彗星的化學遺留物進行分析，發現其主要成份為氨、甲烷、硫化氫、氰化氫和甲醛。科學家得出結論稱，彗星的氣味聞起來像是臭雞蛋、馬尿、酒精和苦杏仁的氣味綜合。[65-66] 「67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希門克」彗星 「67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希門克」彗星 [67] 在太陽系的周圍還包裹著一個龐大的「奧爾特雲」。星雲內分布著不計其數的冰塊、雪團和碎石。其中的某些會受太陽引力影響飛入內太陽系，這學說，在原有的軌道（或稱小天體軌道）上又增加了更多的天體運行軌道。這一模式稱每顆行星都沿著一個小軌道作圓周運行，而小軌道又沿著該行星的大軌道繞地球作圓周運動。幾百年之後，這一模式的漏洞越來越明顯。科學家們又在這個模式上增加了許多軌道，行星就這樣沿著一道又一道的軌道作圓周運動。哥白尼想用「現代」（16世紀的）技術來改進託勒密的測量結果，以期取消一些小軌道。在長達近20年的時間裡，哥白尼不辭辛勞日夜測量行星的位置，但其測量獲得的結果仍然與託勒密的天體運行模式沒有多少差別。哥白尼想知道在另一個運行著的行星上觀察這些行星的運行情況會是什麼樣的。基於這種設想，哥白尼萌發了一個念頭：假如地球在運行中，那麼這些行星的運行看上去會是什麼情況呢？這一設想在他腦海裡變得清晰起來了。一年裡，哥白尼在不同的時間、不同的距離從地球上觀察行星，每一個行星的情況都不相同，這是他意識到地球不可能位於星星軌道的中心。經過20年的觀測，哥白尼發現唯獨太陽的周年變化不明顯。這意味著地球和太陽的距離始終沒有改變。如果地球不是宇宙的中心，那麼宇宙的中心就是太陽。的發現才使牛頓有能力確定運動定律和萬有引力定律。哥白尼的日心宇宙體系既然是時代的產物，它就不能不受到時代的限制。反對神學的不徹底性，同時表現在哥白尼的某些觀點上，他的體系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一個小的範圍內的，具體來說，他的宇宙結構就是今天我們所熟知的太陽系，即以太陽為中心的天體系統。宇宙既然有它的中心，就必須有它的邊界，哥白尼雖然否定了託勒玫的「九重天」，但他卻保留了一層恆星天，儘管他迴避了宇宙是否有限這個問題，但實際上他是相信恆星天球是宇宙的「外殼」，他仍然相信天體只能按照所謂完美的圓形軌道運動，所以哥白尼的宇宙體系，仍然包含著不動的中心天體。但是作為近代自然科學的奠基人，哥白尼的歷史功績是偉大的。確認地球不是宇宙的中心，而是行星之一，從而掀起了一場天文學上根本性的革命，是人類探求客觀真理道路上的裡程碑。哥白尼的偉大成就，不僅鋪平了通向近代天文學的道路，而且開創了整個自然界科學向前邁進的新時代。從哥白尼時代起，脫離教會束縛的自然科學和哲學開始獲得飛躍的發展。哥白尼的科學成就，是他所處時代的產物，又轉過來推動了時代的發展。順應時代變化 十五、六世紀的歐洲，正是從封建社會向資本主義社會轉變的關鍵時期，在這一二百年間，社會發生了巨大的變化。14世紀以前的歐洲，到處是 There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah 「John」 Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mothe凝固的熔巖流。火星上常常有猛烈的大風，大風揚起沙塵能形成可以覆蓋火星全球的特大型沙塵暴。每次沙塵暴可持續數個星期。火星兩極的冰冠和火星大氣中含有水份。從火星表面獲得的探測數據證明，在遠古時期，火星曾經有過液態的水，而且水量特別大。[51] 土星是離太陽第六顆行星，直徑120536㎞，體積僅次於木星。主要由氫組成，還有少量的氦與微量元素，內部的核心包括巖石和冰，外圍由數層金屬氫和氣體包裹著。地球距離土星13億公裡。土星的引力比地球強2.5倍，能夠牽引太陽系內其它行星，使地球處於一個橢圓軌道中運行，並且與太陽保持適當距離，適宜生命繁衍。當土星軌道傾斜20度將使地球軌道比金星軌道更接近太陽，同時，這將導致火星完全離開太陽系。[52] 土星是已知唯一密度小於水的行星，假如能夠將土星放入一個巨大的浴池之中，它將可以漂浮起來。土星有一個巨大的磁氣圈和一個狂風肆虐的大氣層，赤道附近的風速可達1800千米/時。在環繞土星運行的31顆衛星中間，土衛六是最大的一顆，比水星和月球還大，也是太陽系中唯一擁有濃厚大氣層的衛星。[53] 天王星是離太陽第七顆行星，51118km。體積約為地球的65倍，在九大行星中僅次於木星和土星。天王星的大氣層中83%是氫，15%為氦，2%為甲烷以及少量的乙炔和碳氫化合物。上層大氣層的甲烷吸收紅光，使天王星呈現藍綠色。大氣在固定緯度集結成雲層，類似於木星和土星在緯線上鮮豔的條狀色帶。天王星雲層的平均溫度為零下193攝氏度。質量為8.6810±13×10²⁵kg，相當於地球質量的14.63倍。密度較小，只有1.24克/立方釐米，為海王星密度值的74.7%。[54] 恆星 恆星 海王星是離太陽的第八顆行星，直徑49532千米。海王星繞太陽運轉的軌道半徑為45億千米，公轉一周需要165年。海王星的直徑和天王星類似，質量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大氣成分都是氫和氦，內部結構也極為相近，所以說海王星與天王星是一對孿生兄弟。[55] 海王星有太陽系最強烈的風，測量到的時速高達2100公裡。海王星雲頂的溫度是－218 °C，是太陽系最冷的地區之一。海王星核心的溫度約為7000 °C，可以和太陽的表面比較。海王星在1846年9月23日被發現，是唯一利用數學預測而非有計劃的觀測發現的行星。[56] 冥王星，位於海王星以外的柯伊伯帶內側，是柯伊伯帶中已知的最大天體。[57] 直徑約為2370±20km，是地球直徑的18.5%。[58] 2006年8月24日，國際天文學聯合會大會24日投票決定，不再將傳統九大行星之一的冥王星視為行星，而將其列入「矮行星」。大會通過的決議規定，「行星」指的是圍繞太陽運轉、自身引力足以克服其剛體力而使天體呈圓球狀、能夠清除其軌道附近其他物體的天體。在太陽系傳統的「九大行星」中，只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合這些要求。冥王星由於其軌道與海王星的軌道相交，不符合新的行星定義，因此被自動降級為「矮行星」。[59] 冥王星的表面溫度大概在-238到-228℃之間。冥王星的成份由70%巖石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆蓋著一些固體氮以及少量 衛星拍月球經過地球，可見清晰月球背面 衛星拍月球經過地球，可見清晰月球背面 [60] 的固體甲烷和一氧化碳，冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有機物質或是由宇宙射線引發的光化學反應。冥王星的大氣層主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷組成。大氣極其稀薄，地面壓強只有少量微帕。[61] 地球是離太陽第三顆行星，是我們人類的家鄉，儘管地球是太陽系中一顆普通的行星，但它在許多方面都是獨一無二的。比如，它是太陽系中唯一一顆面積大部分被水覆蓋的行星，也是目前所知唯一一顆有生命存在的星球。質量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤，表面溫度：t = - 30 ～ +45。[62] 英國科研人員在《天體生物學》雜誌上報告說，如果沒有小行星撞擊等可能劇烈改變環境的事件發生，地球適宜人類居住的時間還剩約17.5億年，不過人為造成的氣候變化可能縮短這一時間。[63] 彗星是由灰塵和冰塊組成的太陽系中的一類小天體，繞日運動。[64] 科學家使用探測器對彗星的化學遺留物進行分析，發現其主要成份為氨、甲烷、硫化氫、氰化氫和甲醛。科學家得出結論稱，彗星的氣味聞起來像是臭雞蛋、馬尿、酒精和苦杏仁的氣味綜合。[65-66] 「67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希門克」彗星 「67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希門克」彗星 [67] 在太陽系的周圍還包裹著一個龐大的「奧爾特雲」。星雲內分布著不計其數的冰塊、雪團和碎石。其中的某些會受太陽引力影響飛入內太陽系，這學說，在原有的軌道（或稱小天體軌道）上又增加了更多的天體運行軌道。這一模式稱每顆行星都沿著一個小軌道作圓周運行，而小軌道又沿著該行星的大軌道繞地球作圓周運動。幾百年之後，這一模式的漏洞越來越明顯。科學家們又在這個模式上增加了許多軌道，行星就這樣沿著一道又一道的軌道作圓周運動。哥白尼想用「現代」（16世紀的）技術來改進託勒密的測量結果，以期取消一些小軌道。在長達近20年的時間裡，哥白尼不辭辛勞日夜測量行星的位置，但其測量獲得的結果仍然與託勒密的天體運行模式沒有多少差別。哥白尼想知道在另一個運行著的行星上觀察這些行星的運行情況會是什麼樣的。基於這種設想，哥白尼萌發了一個念頭：假如地球在運行中，那麼這些行星的運行看上去會是什麼情況呢？這一設想在他腦海裡變得清晰起來了。一年裡，哥白尼在不同的時間、不同的距離從地球上觀察行星，每一個行星的情況都不相同，這是他意識到地球不可能位於星星軌道的中心。經過20年的觀測，哥白尼發現唯獨太陽的周年變化不明顯。這意味著地球和太陽的距離始終沒有改變。如果地球不是宇宙的中心，那麼宇宙的中心就是太陽。的發現才使牛頓有能力確定運動定律和萬有引力定律。哥白尼的日心宇宙體系既然是時代的產物，它就不能不受到時代的限制。反對神學的不徹底性，同時表現在哥白尼的某些觀點上，他的體系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一個小的範圍內的，具體來說，他的宇宙結構就是今天我們所熟知的太陽系，即以太陽為中心的天體系統。宇宙既然有它的中心，就必須有它的邊界，哥白尼雖然否定了託勒玫的「九重天」，但他卻保留了一層恆星天，儘管他迴避了宇宙是否有限這個問題，但實際上他是相信恆星天球是宇宙的「外殼」，他仍然相信天體只能按照所謂完美的圓形軌道運動，所以哥白尼的宇宙體系，仍然包含著不動的中心天體。但是作為近代自然科學的奠基人，哥白尼的歷史功績是偉大的。確認地球不是宇宙的中心，而是行星之一，從而掀起了一場天文學上根本性的革命，是人類探求客觀真理道路上的裡程碑。哥白尼的偉大成就，不僅鋪平了通向近代天文學的道路，而且開創了整個自然界科學向前邁進的新時代。從哥白尼時代起，脫離教會束縛的自然科學和哲學開始獲得飛躍的發展。哥白尼的科學成就，是他所處時代的產物，又轉過來推動了時代的發展。順應時代變化 十五、六世紀的歐洲，正是從封建社會向資本主義社會轉變的關鍵時期，在這一二百年間，社會發生了巨大的變化。14世紀ndali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 別讓夢想只停留在夢裡。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 沒有笑聲的一天是浪費了的一天。(卓別林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，見的世面多了，你會發現原來在意的那些結根本算不了什麼。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功關鍵都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 開心一點吧，管它會怎樣。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. 「My parents were very open with me about that,」 he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. 「So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?」 the girl asked. 「Lightning bolts went off in my head,」 according to Jobs. 「I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, 『No, you have to understand.』 They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, 『We specifically picked you out.』 Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.」 Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. 「I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,」 said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. 「He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.」 Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. 「Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,」 he said. 「It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.」 Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs 「full of broken glass,」 and it helps to explain some of his behavior. 「He who is abandoned is an abandoner,」 she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. 「The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,」 he said. 「That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.」 Jobs dismissed this. 「There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,」 he insisted. 「Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I』ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.」 He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his 「adoptive」 parents or implied that they were not his 「real」 parents. 「They were my parents 1,000%,」 he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: 「They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.」 Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. 「Steve, this is your workbench now,」 he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. 「I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,」 he said, 「because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.」 Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. 「He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.」 His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. 「I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,」 Paul later recalled. 「He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必須十分努力，才能看起來毫不費力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像騎單車，只有不斷前進，才能保持平衡。(愛因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 擁有一顆感恩的心，最終你會得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一種內心的感覺，並反映在你的眼睛裡。(索菲亞·羅蘭) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用，就是讓你快樂加倍，痛苦減半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 當你真心渴望某樣東西時，整個宇宙都會來幫忙。echanical things.」 「I wasn’t that into fixing cars,」 Jobs admitted. 「But I was eager to hang out with my dad.」 Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. 「He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.」 Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. 「My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he』d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.」 Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. 「Every weekend, there』d be a junkyard trip. We』d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.」 He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. 「He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.」 This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. 「My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.」 The Jobses』 house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American 「everyman,」 Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. 「Eichler did a great thing,」 Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. 「His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.」 Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. 「I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,」 he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. 「It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.」 Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. 「He wasn’t that bright,」 Jobs recalled, 「but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, 『I can do that.』 He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.」 As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, 「What is it you don’t understand about the universe?」 Jobs replied, 「I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.」 He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. 「You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.」 Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne』er-do-wells tended to be engineers. 「When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,」 Jobs recalled. 「But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.」 He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. 「The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,」 he said. 「I fell totally in love with it.」 Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. 「You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,」 he recalled. 「It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.」 In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. 「Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,」 Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. 「So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.」 「No, it needs an amplifier,」 his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. 「It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.」 「I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, 『Well I』ll be a bat out of hell.』」 Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. 「He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.」 Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. 「It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.」 This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. 「Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.」 So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. 「I was kind of bored for the first
2021，註定不凡。
建黨100周年、全面建成小康社會、「十四五」開局之年。
「穩中求進」仍將是2021年的總基調。但可以預見，中國商業社會在這一年將勢不可擋地冒出許多「小火苗」。
結合其他專家預測和自己的思考，2021年將會有以下新趨勢！
作 者：餘心豐
來 源：正和島（ID：zhenghedao）
新冠疫苗，呼之欲出
人類戰勝新冠病毒，最大希望還是疫苗。
2020年底，關於新冠疫苗傳來許多好消息。美國輝瑞、Moderna公司開發的新冠疫苗，有效性都接近95%；美國的第一批疫苗也已經在2020年12月中下旬分發了。
聽起來，似乎地球人馬上就能全部接種上新冠疫苗了？
沒那麼簡單。疫苗是出來了，但作為一種戰略資源，卻遭到哄搶。疫苗分配成為全新博弈戰場。
根據霍普金斯大學測算，實現群體免疫需要為70%-90%的人口接種新冠疫苗，按75億人計算，若採用兩針免疫，全球新冠疫苗需求至少是100億劑。
然而，尚未量產的新冠疫苗卻已經被西方富國「預購」得乾乾淨淨！杜克大學最新數據，全球各國「預購」的新冠疫苗訂單達到96億劑。其中，僅美國、歐盟、英國、日本的富裕「4人組」，就包攬了34億劑，超過總預購數的1/3。
《自然》雜誌也印證了這個事實：最早的疫苗產能已經被歐美國家壟斷，低收入國家只能等到2023年甚至2024年才有可能接種。可能出現「免疫落差」的局面。
新冠疫苗研發的最新進展，讓人們開始看到「隧道盡頭的光芒」，但要想結束新冠大流行還有很長的路要走。
而目前中國有5個新冠疫苗已處於臨床III期階段。據國家衛健委預計，2020年底國產新冠疫苗年產能可達6.1億劑，2021年可達10億劑以上。
但短時間內給全國人接種新冠疫苗，或許並非最佳策略，分為「兩步走」方案更為合理。復旦大學公共衛生學院教授姜慶五分析，中國的策略是「以空間換時間」，依靠嚴格防控，中國疫情已得到較好控制。目前疫苗產能暫時無法完全跟上，可以優先完成重點人群的接種，等全球完成疫苗接種、疫情慢慢得到控制後，中國可能就不用大規模接種新冠疫苗。
所以2021年，仍舊要以做好嚴格防控為主。
「新計劃經濟」，蔚然成風
2020年末，社區團購火了，但爭議點都落在網際網路企業的壟斷問題上。
拋開這點，社區團購其實帶來了一些新的思考：
過往生鮮生意最大的問題，是庫存，每天都需要「猜」用戶愛吃什麼、不愛吃什麼，再據此進貨。「猜不準」就容易造成浪費。這些浪費最終都會加到菜價裡，一場「三輸」局面就此上演：消費者買到的菜很貴，菜販賺不到錢，社會承擔大量浪費。
網際網路這項「科技」促成了改變，用極低成本前一天晚上收集海量預購需求，通過高效倉儲物流，第二天就送達社區，精準高效地解決供需匹配問題。
跟社區團購類似的，還有C2M（顧客對工廠）模式，像阿里的犀牛智造，所有產品都是先有訂單再生產，按需定製化生產，0庫存，真正實現產銷一體化。
這樣一種商業模式其實就是「新計劃經濟」！
它指的不是蘇聯時期和中國過去的那種計劃經濟，雖然都是有計劃地發展經濟，但「新計劃經濟」是基於大數據對市場的分析，讓預判成為可能，從而解決過度生產所造成的社會資源浪費。
2021年，「新計劃經濟」的大趨勢將進一步強化，單一個社區團購就將達到千億規模。
創新加碼，補短板正當時
過去幾年，習近平總書記反覆強調，要把原始創新能力提升擺在更加突出的位置，努力實現更多「從0到1」的突破。
2021年，仍將是「補短板」的重要年份。
黃奇帆曾分析過，我國目前研發費佔GDP的比重大約在2.2%，100萬億GDP差不多2.2萬億研發費，僅次於美國，排在第二。但在核心的、高科技的、基礎性的研發方面，只佔到總研發費的5%，遠低於發達國家的20%。
關鍵研發投入不足，被人「卡脖子」自然不可避免。因為高科技靠買是買不來的，必須拋棄幻想。因此不難預見，2021年「國產替代」市場將無比巨大，僅晶片領域，我國每年進口花費金額就高達2.1萬億人民幣，自給率只有15%左右，如果能夠實現70%的晶片自給率，每年在進口晶片上的花費將減少1.5萬億。
類似的還有光刻機、生物製藥、高端數控工具機、作業系統等重點科技領域。2021年，這些硬核科技的創新，勢必大有可為！
直播電商，草莽謝幕
在中國，這幾年還有像直播電商一樣「爆炸增長」的行業嗎？
從2017年的190億，到2020年的近萬億，直播電商規模暴漲50倍，只用了短短3年。
2020年，是直播電商野蠻生長的一年。
一方面，人人皆可帶貨直播，上到政府官員，中至企業家，下到平頭百姓。直播電商有多火，已無需贅言；另一方面，各種亂象幾乎成了行業潛規則，數據造假、直播售假的行為越來越多。
所以2021年，直播電商將出現3大變化：
1. 監管趨向於嚴格
2021年，直播電商中刷單、刷量這條灰色產業鏈的生存空間將會越來越窄。同時，所有直播帶貨商2021年最大的挑戰，就在於對商品的篩選和品質的把控。
2. 頭部集中度提高
2021年，直播電商將迎來洗牌時代。許多品牌商入場後將不斷孵化IP，形成矩陣。比如聚划算已經將「劉一刀」的成功模式孵化到其他明星身上，像景甜（種甜官）、李好（摳價官）等對應不同風格和受眾。
而品牌商和平臺頭部主播的關係將變成「既合作又對抗」，在各種大大小小的戰役後，雜牌軍、混編軍的生存將會越發困難。
3. 產業基地成贏家
直播電商有個有趣現象，素人拼不過網紅，網紅拼不過品牌，品牌幹不過產業基地。
2021年，區域直播基地將互相搶奪蛋糕。比如中國第一直播村是北下朱村。距離全球最大的小商品批發市場「義烏國際商貿城」只有2.2公裡，面積不大的村莊卻有著「中國微商第一村」「網紅直播電商村」的光環。村內近百棟商住樓，分布著近千個微商品牌，從業人員超過5萬人，銷售了某些義烏商家1/4的貨物。
直播電商2021年毫無疑問會更火，有人預估規模將達到2.5萬億，解決2000-2500萬人就業。
但與此同時，直播電商的「草莽時代」將會終結。
短視頻賽道，爭奪長尾
2020年，中國網民平均花多長時間在短視頻上？
一個保守的答案是每天將近兩小時。
目前，中國短視頻用戶規模已經超過8億。據中國網絡視聽節目服務協會的報告，短視頻人均使用時長已超過即時通訊，成為用戶「殺時間」的第一利器。
短視頻的市場，有多大？看一眼巨頭的營收就瞭然。據一份網際網路上廣泛流傳的「海通證券字節跳動專家會」文檔顯示，字節跳動旗下巨量引擎的媒體廣告收入達到1500-1550億元，其中抖音就有大約1000-1050億元的營收。
2021年，短視頻領域仍將是網際網路公司競爭的主舞臺。但是爭奪用戶的大戰役基本已經結束，據QuestMobile的數據，截至2020年8月，抖音的日活躍用戶已超6億；而截至2020年6月底，快手的平均日活躍用戶在3億左右。
「大戰已經過去，不會走入你死我活的境地。」快手一位高層曾這樣對媒體表示。
下一步，短視頻巨頭會把更多精力，放在滿足個性化、小眾化需求的垂直領域上，一個很重要的內容就是知識類內容。相比於純娛樂、資訊內容，知識類內容更具用戶價值，能帶來更多「長尾流量」，90%的長尾產品和10%的熱門產品所產生的經濟價值是相同的。因此明年抖音、B站、西瓜視頻等平臺發力知識類內容的趨勢仍將繼續。
2021年，短視頻巨頭的大型戰役已近尾聲，但內容創作者的春天才剛剛到來。只要人性不變，用戶「殺時間」的習慣就會一直留存，短視頻仍將是挖不完的「富礦」。
單身經濟，萬億商機
一個孤獨的小人兒遙望地球，這個熟悉的微信界面，正在成為當代許多人的最真實寫照。
2.4億人！
這是民政部2018年公布的單身成年人數據，其中有超過7700萬的成年人是獨居。預計到2021年，這一數字會上升到9200萬人。
《單身社會》的作者克裡南伯格曾寫到，「單身社會正成為一種空前強大、無法避免的社會變革」。
這一趨勢也捎帶手撐起了一個萬億級市場：
現在北京、上海等城市都出現了一種「一人食餐廳」，去那裡吃飯，進門點餐、出門結帳都用手機，就坐在一個三面封閉的小格子裡，甚至連上菜時都看不到服務員，只是有人打開隔板迅速把菜推到面前。
迷你電器也火了起來。2020年上半年，一家叫小熊電器的公司做得如火如荼，業績同比接近翻番。甚至迷你房屋也成了熱捧對象，日本東京這幾年風靡一種連胳膊都伸展不開，只為單人設計的「超迷你」公寓，但入住率卻高達99%。
此外，2021年，跟陪伴相關的產業也將崛起，比如陪聊陪玩的APP、寵物、家庭機器人，等等。
買寵物？還是買一個機器人？這可能會成為2021年令人糾結的問題。
新造車勢力，決戰將至
2020年，全球資本市場最大的贏家是誰？
夢想是星辰大海的馬斯克。
特斯拉2020年以來股價大漲5倍，市值突破6000億美元，登頂全球第一大市值汽車企業，超過大眾、豐田、通用、現代等9大傳統車企的市值總和。
然而2020年，特斯拉的汽車銷量還不到全球的1%，只有幾十萬輛，豐田的年銷量則是1000萬輛。
在這背後，一個顛覆性的敘事正在發生。我們已經不能再用看傳統汽車的眼光來看特斯拉了。
它正在從一家新能源汽車公司變為一家科技公司，涉及的範圍包括深度學習算法、人工智慧晶片、大數據、超算、電芯、新能源、新材料等各種前沿技術領域，邊界早已遠超普通意義上的汽車公司。
甚至可以說，新能源汽車只是特斯拉業務的載體，未來它的競爭對手不只是大眾、豐田，更有谷歌、英偉達等高科技企業，還有石油巨頭、氫能源技術、中國傳統與新造車勢力。
2021年，一場決戰一觸即發，特斯拉新車型Model Y將進軍中國，上演「圍剿」局面，但這次或許不再是國產新能源造車勢力圍剿特斯拉，而是特斯拉圍剿「非特斯拉」！
5G商用，走向成熟
5G，2020年發展到什麼程度了？
按工信部副部長劉烈宏的說法，截至2020年10月，中國累計建成5G基站71.8萬個，是全球最大的5G網絡，5G終端連接數已經超過1.8億。
中國信通院的研究數據則顯示，按2020年5G正式商用估算，預計可帶動約4800億元的直接產出和1.2萬億元的間接經濟產出。
2021年，將是5G商用的關鍵年份，5G新建基站將超過100萬個。過去5G商用最頭疼的「應用場景」，也將在2021年逐步走向成熟。
5G+超高清4K/8K視頻，是目前最為明確的應用方向，有望最先迎來爆發，根據賽迪預測，2022年高清視頻市場規模將超過2.5萬億元。
剩下的離得比較近的應用場景還包括，車聯網、智能電網、VR/AR、智慧城市，等等。
圖源：阿里雲研究中心
5G商用帶來的種種變化，將會超過過去30年的總和。2021年，5G+領域值得特別關注。
平臺經濟，擔當公平
2020年末，中央首提「強化反壟斷和防止資本無序擴張」。
這個議題仍將是2021年的工作重點之一。
為什麼很重要？
盧克文工作室在《公平與效率》這篇文章中，講到的一則故事很貼切：
1981年，深圳開始改革開放，有一名內地幹部來深圳參觀學習後，突然在招待所痛哭起來。大家問他哭什麼？那人說：深圳這個樣子，還是社會主義嗎？初聽這個段子，那名幹部似乎透露著一股迂腐。但我年紀漸長，已經能理解這名幹部當時的心情，他心裡當時揣著兩個字：公平。深圳改開後的富裕，讓一小部分人先富起來，和貧窮的大部分人有了巨大差距。因此這名幹部才會痛哭，他所認知的社會主義，就應該是共同富裕，不能有這麼大的貧富差距。所以他才會問：這還是社會主義嗎？「反壟斷」背後的道理相同。由於網際網路形成壟斷的速度更快，「馬太效應」更明顯：強者恆強、富者更富。一旦形成壟斷，就會妨礙競爭，最終損害公平和創新。
針對「反壟斷」最有效的手段一般是什麼？其實就一個字：拆。當年美國的AT&T最終被拆分成8家小公司，目前谷歌全球市佔率第一的Chrome瀏覽器也面臨著被迫出售的可能性。
2021年，如何對「大而不能倒」的巨頭進行監管？分拆或許是監管層考量的工具之一。
大資本、大網際網路公司在2021年，或許將安靜許多，重新去思考商業的本質問題：如何讓消費者獲益？並且在科技創新上，有更多擔當、更多追求和更多作為。
數位化轉型，迫在眉睫
2020年，有個詞叫「Big Five」。類似谷歌、Facebook、蘋果等5大數位化企業，和美國「標普500」的其他495家企業，分化成了兩層。
納斯達克2020年的漲幅，大多集中在這5家企業上，漲了近一半。其他企業基本沒有變化。
在今天所有巨大的不確定中，只有數位化是確定的。
以前，數位化轉型還是企業的選擇題；現在，早已成了企業生存的必答題。
這不是危言聳聽。未來10年，是傳統行業推進數位化的最後10年。如果到了2021年還不準備變革，相信最後一定會成為數字脫貧的對象。
因為高效的商業模式和低效的商業模式之間，不存在競爭，只會「逐步取代」。這一點，將在2021年不斷上演。
結語
如果一個時代，讓你覺得不舒服、充滿焦慮，惶惶不可終日。說明了什麼？
它是一個正在激變的大時代。
以前，變化可能只是生活的一部分；現在，變化成了生活本身。
我們現在就像處在飛機穿過雲層的顛簸期，除了要握好方向盤，系好安全帶，更應該思考的是如何與未來接軌。
2021年，馬上到來了。世界又將是一個新的樣子。不管2020年我們過得怎麼樣，我們都有機會重來，也必須重來。
但如果在新的一年裡，你依舊遇到許多挫折，感到不如意、不開心。
請記住約翰·列儂的這句話：
「所有事到最後都會是好事。如果還不是，那它還沒到最後。」
本文僅代表作者觀點。對於2021年的新趨勢，歡迎在留言區分享你的見解。
參考資料：
[1]. 八點健聞，96億劑有希望的新冠疫苗即將問世，普通人什麼時候才能打上？
[2]. 劉潤，社區團購，到底是在提高效率，還是在搶奪飯碗？
[3]. 華埔學堂，2021年直播電商的20個論斷
[4]. 刺蝟公社，短視頻戰爭：2021
[5]. 有見，「孤獨經濟」興起，中國2億「空巢青年」背後是萬億商機！
[6]. 澤平宏觀，特斯拉的秘密：科技綜合體崛起
[7]. 春暖花開，陳春花：一文講透數位化時代的戰略認知、邏輯和選擇
[8]. 筆記俠，香帥：2021年，錢從哪裡來？