去年11月22日，我在小破站發了第一個視頻，本來我以為自己跳入了小破站裡的一片小池塘，沒想到竟然是知識區茫茫無盡的大海，我感覺毛不易的《入海》就是為我唱的，30歲的我就是那中浪中的一朵，你可以從DannyData看出，小破站的月活躍用戶數在我進入B站後有一個多麼明顯的增長，在今年一季度已達到1.7億，而且我發現湧現了越來越多鯊魚級別的同行也加入到知識區的大海中，這引得我不禁悵惘：你說我還有機會嗎？
On November 22, last year, I posted my first video at bilibili.com. I thought I jumped into a small pond on bilibili.com. Unexpectedly, it was an endless sea of knowledge area. I felt that Buyi Mao’s "Entering the Sea" was particularly sung for me, and I, at 30, was one of the waves. You can see from DannyData that the number of monthly active users of Bilibili was a noticeable growth after joining bilibil.com, which has reached 170 million in the first quarter of this year. I found that more and more shark-level colleagues have joined the sea of knowledge area, which makes me feel quite concerned: Do I still have a chance?
那今天我就從三個方面來分析下，B站知識區up主們，到底過的怎麼樣？以後還有機會嗎？
Today, I will analyze three aspects to judge how the uploaders have on the knowledge area of Bilibili been doing? Is there any chance for them in the future?
我是小丹尼，談車說科技，本集視頻仍然遵循我的潔癖標準：隨你反駁。
I'm Danny, talking about tech and cars. As usual, all information used in my video is authentic and first-hand. You're welcome to disagree with my arguments.
我們用爬蟲重點分析了391位「商業科普」類內容up主數據，包括你們熟悉的半佛、老蔣、李自然、IC實驗室、衝浪普拉斯、智能路障等，再基於他們的關注列表，找到同類內容up主。再加上以「商業、品牌、運營、產品」等關鍵字檢索用戶名，再通過其簡介和發布內容做篩選判斷，最終得到2016-2020年7月15日共7215條核心數據進行分析。
We use crawlers to analyze 391 content creators' data of "business science popularization" content, including half-Buddha, Lao Jiang, Li Ziran, IC lab, Surfer +, Intelligent Roadblock, etc. Based on their following list, we find out the uploaders of similar content. Plus, the user name is retrieved by keywords such as "commerce, brand, operation, and product", and then the user name is screened and judged through its introduction and release content. Finally, 7215 core data from July 15, 2016, to 2020 are obtained for analysis.
01 趨勢與現狀
The Current Situation and Trends
先說第一個方面，現狀與趨勢
First of all, the current situation and trends
從投稿數來看，2016年就開始有人陸續發布內容，但從2016-2019年上半年都不溫不火，每月發布量最多也就100左右。直到2019年12月到2020年1月開始，投稿數小有起色，視頻數量小幅度上升至200左右。2020年2月開始突然爆發增長，相關主題直接破千。根據B站Q1財報，全站up主月均投稿量增長138%，而該領域up主Q1月均投稿量增長了2000%。疫情可能是最主要因素，當然，B站跨年晚會等出圈活動也可能刺激了部分up主開始創作。3月之後，隨著復工復產，很多up主不再有那麼多空閒時間創作，投稿數迎來回落。但是數量仍然遠高於疫情開始前。
Seen from the number of contributions, some people have been publishing content since 2016, but it has not been popular since the first half of 2016-2019, and the maximum monthly release is about 100. From December 2019 to January 2020, the number of contributions has improved slightly, and the number of uploaded videos has increased to about 200. In February 2020, the growth exploded, and the number of related topics was directly thousands. According to the Q1 financial report of Bilibili, the average monthly contribution volume of uploaders in the whole website increased by 138%, while the average monthly contribution volume of uploaders in Q1 in this field increased by 2000%. The epidemic may be the most crucial factor. Of course, activities such as the new year's party of Bilibili may also stimulate some uploaders to start to create. After March, with the return to work and production, many uploaders no longer have so much free time to create, and the number of contributions fell. But the number is still far higher than that before the epidemic broke out.
再看播放量，整體走勢和視頻發布數類似，從播放量來看，在2019年8月之前，大部分視頻的播放量都比較低。但是從8月開始，商業科普的視頻播放量就開始往上走了， 從11月開始就進入爆發增長期，一路從1千萬總播放量攀升到7500萬總播放，可以看到關注度的上升，也進一步激勵了up主創作。3月之後，受復產復工影響，用戶空閒時間也少了，該商業科普播放量也開始下降，但2020年6月的播放量仍遠高於2019年12月。
Let's take a look at the broadcast volume; the overall trend is similar to the number of video releases. From the view of broadcast volume, before August 2019, most of the video playback volume is relatively low. However, since August, the number of commercial popular science videos has been on the rise. Since November, it has entered a period of explosive growth, from 10 million to 75 million. It can be seen that increasing attention has further stimulated the creation of uploaders. After March, due to the impact of returning to production and work, the idle time of users was reduced, and the broadcast volume of commercial science popularization began to decline. However, the broadcast volume in June 2020 was still much higher than that in December 2019.
現在我們把兩者結合起來看，可以看到在2019年9-10月的時候，視頻數量沒有太大變化，但是播放數明顯上漲了，類似的情況在11-12月更加明顯， 視頻數量略有上升，但是播放量翻了好多倍。可以看出在這段時間，商業科普領域內開始出現「爆品」，比如在B站那個不方便提姓名的男人。之後在2020年1-2月，有大量up主也同樣看到了這個機會，開始做類似的視頻，視頻數在這段時間暴漲，和播放量共同達到頂峰。
Now when we combine the two, we can see that from September to October in 2019, the number of videos has not changed much, but the number of plays has increased significantly. A similar situation is more evident from November to December. The number of videos has increased slightly, but the number of views has increased many times. In this period, "hot sales" began to appear in the field of popular commercial science, such as the man on Bilibili, whose name is inconvenient to disclose. Then, from January to February in 2020, many uploaders also saw this opportunity and began to make similar videos. During this period, the number of videos soared and reached a peak together with the broadcast volume.
與視頻數和播放量不同的是，三連比例趨勢更「超前」一點，也側面說明了，更廣的關注度是要依託於三連比例觸發推薦機制的。從19年6月開始，點讚投幣和收藏的比例就開始上升了，說明逐步有一些質量比較突出的視頻出來。9-10月投幣比例爆發、點讚和收藏也有明顯上升，結合上面兩個部分，可以看出這是一個爆品時期。而之後隨著播放量和視頻數的爆發增長，三連的比例卻沒有出現類似的爆發。視頻數量雖然在1-2月翻了5倍，但也許大量新進入的up主並沒有交出更多高質量的內容。點讚比例和投幣比例在19年10月最接近，之後投幣比例就一路下滑。或許是因為經過最初的新鮮感後，用戶越來越覺得視頻內容還不錯，值得「點讚」，但沒有好到值得投兩個幣的程度。我猜這些用戶是想把硬幣留給DannyData，你們說是我自作多情了嗎？
Different from the number of videos and the number of views, the trend of the proportion of one- key-triple-supports is more " vanguard, "which also shows that the wider attention depends on the ratio of one- key-triple-supports to trigger the recommendation mechanism. Since June of 19, the proportion of "like, insert coins" and collections" began to rise, indicating that there are gradually some videos with outstanding quality. The proportion of inserted coins, likes, and the collection also increased significantly from September to October. Combined with the two parts, as mentioned earlier, we can see that this is a period of hot-sale products. However, with the explosive growth of the number of broadcasts and videos, there was no similar explosion in the proportion of one-key-triple-supports. Although the number of videos increased five times from January to February, perhaps a large number of new uploaders did not hand over more high-quality content. The ratio of "likes" and "inserted coins" was the closest in October of 19; the proportion of inserted coin dropped. Perhaps it is because, after the initial freshness, users increasingly feel that the video content is getting good, worthy of "likes," but not good enough to be worth two coins. I guess these users want to leave the coins to DannyData. Do you think I'm flattering myself?
我們畫了一條時間軸來幫你理解，2019年6月開始逐漸有up主開始做些質量更高的視頻，在持續產出一段時間後，終於在9-10月等來了「爆款視頻」 ，在得到更多分發流量支持後，商業科普內容終於在11-12月迎來了播放量指數級增長。更多up主在12月到2020年1月的時候注意到了這個趨勢，開始進入商業科普生產內容，但是大部分up的視頻質量或數據不能達到「爆品」的水準，因此播放量的增長並不像之前那麼迅猛，三連比例也基本沒有增長、甚至略有下降。在4月之後，隨著復產復工，供需兩端均受流量大環境影響，出現下降。同時一些新進入這個領域的up主的作品一直沒有得到很好的反饋，也就逐漸退出了這個市場。如果這樣來看，商業科普領域很可能是由少量KOL（大up）來主導和推動的市場。
We have drawn a timeline to help you understand this. From June 2019, uploaders gradually began to produce videos of higher quality. After a period of continuous production, they finally came to "hot-sale videos" from September to October. After getting more support of distributed flow, commercial accessible science content finally ushered in an exponential growth in the number of broadcasts from November to December. More uploaders noticed this trend from December to January 2020 and began to engage in producing the content of popular commercial science. However, most of the uploaded video quality or data can not reach the "blockbuster" level. Therefore, the growth of broadcast volume is not as rapid as before, and the proportion of one-key-triple-supports has not increased or even decreased slightly. After April, with the return to production and work, both sides of supply and demand were affected by the massive flow environment and declined. Meanwhile, some works of uploaders who have entered this field have not received excellent feedback, so they have gradually withdrawn from the market. In this case, commercial science popularization is likely to be dominated and promoted by a small number of KOL (famous uploaders).
所以我們又整理了一份商業科普的391名up主的大名單，這些大名單裡的up主累計收穫了4.4億次（441,238,093）播放量，和1300萬人次粉絲（13,002,826）。整個格局是典型的一超多強，嚴重長尾，比如「半佛仙人」一人就切去了4成總播放量和1/3的粉絲人次。剔除半佛後，超過80%的播放量和粉絲數都集中在前20個up主上。大部分的up主只有2位數的粉絲，3位數的播放。
Therefore, we have sorted out a list of 391 uploaders for commercial science popularization. The uploaders in this list have accumulated 440 million (441,238,093) broadcasts and 13 million fans (13,002,826). The whole pattern is typical of one super uploader with multi-strong uploaders, which forms a long tail behind. For example, "half Buddha immortal" occupies 40% of the total broadcast volume and 1/3 of the fans. Except for half Buddha, more than 80% of the broadcast volume and followers are concentrated on the top 20 uploaders. Most of the uploaders only have 2-digit fans and 3-digit broadcast volume.
我們在回看這些頭部up主的入坑時間，在2017年7月，商業科普露出萌芽，幾個後來成為商業科普Top20的up主開始發視頻，但播放量一直不溫不火，但質量穩步提升。到了19年6月：開始有些up主（比如老蔣、智能路障）進入商業科普，做出了一些優質內容，有了自己的老粉。到9月，整個類型視頻開始放量。三連比例也開始一路上升。等到19年11月，更多優質up主開始入局，比如半佛、IC實驗室、普拉斯還有包括我們DannyData等等。在推薦算法和口碑的加持下，播放量持續增長。也有Top20 up主在2020年1-3月重心入場（林超、 老華等），當然也有些是把之前做的不好的視頻刪了，但是大多數新進的up主的作品無人問津。到2020年3-4月：供需兩端都多出來大量空閒時間，共同使市場達到頂峰。且2020年Q1供需兩端的同比增長率，均遠高於B站全站Q1同比增長率 ，到了2020年4月：或許由於復產復工，流量大環境受影響，供需兩端均開始下降，同時很多新進up主沒有火，產量也逐漸下降，但是從總體來看，現在商業科普領域已經從沒啥人看到了一個百家爭鳴的新階段。
Looking back at the time when these top uploaders entered the pit. In July 2017, commercial science popularization began to pop up. Several uploaders who later became the top 20 uploaders of commercial science popularization began to produce videos, with tepid popularity and steadily improved quality. In June of 2019, some uploaders (such as Laojiang and Intelligent Roadblocks) entered this field and produced some high-quality content, accumulating some diehard fans. By September, this type of videos began to be rising in volume, with the increasing proportion of one-click-triple-supports. By November 2019, more high-quality uploaders entered the board, such as Banfo, IC Lab, Plus+ and DannyData. With the support of algorithm and word-of-mouth recommendation, the amount of play continues to grow. From January to March in 2020, some top 20 uploaders entered (Lin Chao, Laohua, etc.), and of course, some of them have deleted the videos that were not well done before, but most of the works of the new uploaders were ignored. By March to April 2020, a lot of spare time on both sides of supply and demand jointly made the market reach the peak. The year-on-year growth rate of both ends of supply and demand in 2020 Q1 is far higher than that of Bilibili. By April 2020, perhaps due to the return to work, the environment of flow was affected, and both supply and demand began to decline. Meanwhile, many new uploaders haven’t got popular, and their output was gradually declining. But on the whole, the field of commercial science popularization has seen a new stage from no one watching to the hot contention among hundreds of uploaders.
03 機會與價值
Opportunities and Values to be Discovered
分析完現狀趨勢，我們再看看第二方面：有哪些機會與價值在等著被發掘。
After analyzing the current situation and trends, let's look at the second aspect: what opportunities and values are waiting to be discovered.
正所謂水大魚大，B站做大了，我們這些小魚小蝦才有口飯吃。根據B站公開的季度數據做了回歸，去除疫情帶來的快速增長影響，預計再過個半年，小破站仍然可以達到2億月活，同學們請把「公屏」打在真猛上。
As the saying goes, the bigger the pond, the bigger the fish. We nobody can have a chance to develop only when Bilibili grows. We have processed the quarterly data published by Bilibili and eliminated the impact of the rapid growth caused by the epidemic by regression computation. It is estimated that in half a year, Bilibili will have 200 million monthly active users. Please type 「awesome」 on the screen.
而這些成績，都繞不開一個話題，文字內容轉視頻，作為一個三年的不成功公眾號寫手，我在B站找回了我的青春。我們能看到許多公眾號創作者甚至媒體都加入到了視頻化的浪潮中，在B站打破次元壁的同時，文字內容也想打入B站。比如半佛、極客公園那開公園的鵬哥等等。不難看出，這是一場大遷徙，在公眾號高度飽和，低打開率的情況下，有著充分增長空間的視頻領域就成了文字創作者們絕佳的新大陸。
These achievements cannot go without turning text into video. As a three year unsuccessful writer on the WeChat official account, I found my youth back on Bilibili. We can see that many official account writers and even the media have joined the trend of video streaming. Meanwhile, as Bilibili has broken the dimensional wall, the text also wants to get involved, such as Banfo, Bro Peng of Geek Park, and so on. It is not difficult to see that this is a great migration. In the case of high saturation and low opening rate of the official accounts, the field of video with sufficient growth space has become a great new continent for text creators.
但是有出海衝浪，就一定有翻船的探險家，比如公眾號的Top10，戴老闆，目前在B站官方帳號只有2.1w粉絲，反響平平。這一定程度上說明，視頻受眾和文字受眾是不完全相通的。決定從文字跨向視頻的那一刻，就意味著之前所有的榮光和沉澱都要歸零，這可能是目前頭部公眾號轉視頻甚至轉視頻號水土不服的癥結所在。
But as long as there are maritime explorers, there will surely be boats to be overturned. For example, boss Dai, who ranked Top 10 among WeChat official accounts, has only 21,000 fans with few interactions on Bilibili. To a certain extent, the video audience and the text viewers are not completely interlinked. The decision to turn the text into video means that all the glory and precipitation before are zeroed, which may be the crux of the current conversion of the top official accounts into the videos or even the video accounts.
03 內容和產品
Content and Products
最後講第三方面：內容和產品，看看各位up主八仙過海，如何獲得各位觀眾老爺們的青睞。
Last, the third aspect: content and products. Let's have a look at what the uploaders really got and how they won the favor of the audience.
首先拋出一個問題：是不是視頻發的越多，粉絲量就越高呢？
A question first, is the more videos produced, the more fans follow?
你可以從這張非常殘酷的散點圖看出，頭部up主普遍發視頻少於50個，少而精是當下最好的視頻製作策略，不是視頻發的越多越好。
You can see from this cruel scatter diagram that the number of videos of the top uploaders tends to be less than 50. Less in quantity but excellent in quality is the best video production strategy at present, instead of the more, the better.
另外，我們可以分析平均單個視頻點讚/播放、投幣/播放、收藏/播放比例，Top21的up主平均遠高於其他播放量大於100的up主們，所以，這就是一鍵三連的魔力。
Furthermore, we analyzed the average ratios of likes/views, coins/views, and collections/views of a single video. It is found that the average ratios of the top 21 uploaders are much higher than those of others with more than 100 view amount. This is the magic of one click to support three times.
我們進一步分析核心數據相關性係數，可以看出點讚量與播放量的相關係數最高，所以一方面視頻質量要高，另一方面順便求個贊還是非常有用的，所以同學們，還點讚幹啥？愣著呀。
We further analyzed the correlation coefficient of the core data, and we found that the correlation coefficient between the number of likes and the amount of view is the highest. Therefore, in addition to the high quality of videos, it is very useful to ask for a like. So, dear fellows, stop dazing and give me a like.
另外從播彈比可以看出，老蔣的內容激發即時參與、討論等互動行為做的最好，看來媽媽們比較愛蔣寶。
Also, it can be seen from the ratio of views/bullet chats that Laojiang does best in stimulating real-time participation, discussion, and other interactive behaviors. So Laojiang is favored by the audience.
那如何做出一個好作品呢？我們基本可以概括為這個公式：
How to make good work? We can basically summarize it in this formula：
作品完整度=內容+形式
Work integrity = content + form
內容講究的是邏輯清晰、有明確觀點、乾貨滿和有趣，而形式講究的是畫面、聲音、特效、up形象等等。
The content is all about clear logic, clear opinion, full of essence, and fun, while the form highlights the picture, the sound, the visual effects, the image of an uploader, and so on.
以上我說這些有時候也不需要面面俱到，有可能你的視頻在某一方面極其突出，比如邏輯非常清晰，顏值又高，但畫面和特效極其拉跨，反而形成了自己獨特的風格，我說的是誰呢？你們懂的。
Sometimes there is no need to cover all the aspects. Maybe your video is extremely outstanding in one aspect. For example, you have a clear logic and a good-looking appearance, but the visual effects are extremely loose, which also form your unique style. You know who I am talking about, right?
與此同時，up主們關於熱點的捕捉也比較敏感，就拿瑞幸為例，有一半的up主都發了相關內容，有的還發了好幾條。
Meanwhile, uploaders are also more sensitive about capturing hot topics. Take Luckin Coffee as an example, half of the uploaders have posted relevant content, and some have even posted quite a few.
整體視頻標籤雲圖集中在「網際網路、創業、商業、財經」幾個話題，而Top 21的up主內容更多元，或者說叫更加「不務正業」，高頻關鍵詞還包括「數碼、社會、Vlog、賺錢」等等。
The overall video tag cloud focuses on the topics "Internet, entrepreneurship, commerce, finance and economics". The top 21 uploaders are more diverse in the content, or even more "idle". Their high-frequency keywords also include "digital, social, Vlog, making money", and so on.
最常見得話題，知名人物包括馬雲、羅永浩、馬化騰是up們的最愛，雷軍、馬斯克、李佳琪、賈伯斯也有相當高的熱度。熱門公司包括了騰訊、蘋果、B站，華為、特斯拉和阿里。想做up主的同學們知道熱門選題了吧？還截圖幹啥？愣著啊。
The most common topics include well-known figures like Jack Ma, Luo Yonghao, and Pony Ma, who are the favorite of uploaders, as well as Lei Jun, Musk, Li Jiaqi, and Jobs. Popular companies include Tencent, Apple, Bilibili, Huawei, Tesla, and Alibaba. So if you want to be an uploader, now you should know how to select the hot topics. Stop dazing and take a screenshot!
另外，up主們還需要塑造自己的記憶點，比如Slogan對著鏡子磕頭、不眨眼、以我為準、隨你反駁得男人們，還有一些個人特質梗，比如模仿區up主、保護我方浪保、短的館長、坑王小丹尼等等。
What’s more, the uploaders also need to shape their memory points, such as those slogans 「kowtows in the mirror」, 「do not blink」, 「take me as the standard」, 「welcome to disagree with my arguments」. Some memory points are based on personal characteristics, such as uploaders in the imitating section, protecting our Langbao, short curator, holes digger Danny, etc.
從視頻長度分布來看，Top 21 up主的視頻長度平均為11.7分鐘，大多數視頻集中在7-11分鐘，這麼看來，我還是太長了啊。
In terms of the video length distribution, the average video length of the top 21 uploaders is 11.7 minutes, and most of the videos last about 7-11 minutes. In this case, mine are still too long.
最後，個體迭代方式人人不同，那就以我們DannyData為案例。目前我們經歷了三個階段，第一個階段是我在各平臺發了些文章，也就是我那之前兩三年不成功的寫手經驗，同時在開發DannyData數據可視化工具。第二階段基於DannyData工具和以往沉澱，開始做DannyData系列視頻，證明了MVP最小可行性產品的有效性，同時開始招募團隊成員。第三階段開始迭代和多元化，做出更多探索，比如除了DannyData講公司系列視頻，還包括DannyPal大咖訪談、DannyWiki泛科普、還有與合伙人電動Emma聯動、直播等等，與此同時，DannyData工具小程序版本和網頁版本也要上線啦。
Finally, individual iterations vary from person to person. Let’s take DannyData as an example. At present, we have gone through three stages. The first stage is that I published articles on various platforms, that is, my unsuccessful experience as a writer for two or three years before, and developed the DannyData visualization tool at the same time. In the second stage, based on the DannyData tool and previous precipitation, I started to make the series of DannyData videos, which proved the effectiveness of MVP (Minimum Viable Products) and began to recruit team members. In the third stage, we started to iterate, diversify, and make more explorations. For example, in addition to the series of DannyData videos talking about companies, we also produced DannyPal which interviews with popular celebrities, DannyWiki talking about popular science, and we linkage with our partner Emma to make live streaming, etc. In the meantime, the applet version and web version of the DannyData tool have been released.
順便給大家透漏一句，DannyData工具絕不僅僅只是一個數據可視化工具而已，這只是我們未來布局走的第一步，好戲還在後面。
By the way, I』d like to say the DannyData tool is not just a data visualization tool. This is only the first step of our future layout, and the good show is yet to come.
最後，以老蔣在接受極客公園訪談時的一段話作為結尾：
Finally, I will end with the words of Laojiang in his interview with Geek Park:
「B站就像是 2014 年時的微信公眾號，存在著自媒體的創業紅利。它是一個窗口期，可能只有一至兩年轉瞬即逝的機會。」"Bilibili is like the WeChat official account in 2014. There is a start-up bonus from the We Media, which is a window with chances for only one or two fleeting years. "
我是小丹尼，談車說科技，別忘了幫我點讚三連關注，Techs Never Die, 回見。
I'm Danny, I talk about tech and cars. Don't forget to give me a like and subscribe to my channel. Techs never die, see you next time.、
文稿：Allen、Danny、扁擔
剪輯/視覺：DannyData視頻小組
Techs Never Die, see you next time.