中國石化新聞網訊 據今日油價12月16日報導，原油價格升至早春以來的最高水平，美國食品和藥物管理局（FDA）批准輝瑞生物科技公司(Pfizer-BioNTech)新冠肺炎疫苗上市，並表示，全國數百個疫苗接種點將提供疫苗。從過去的幾周來看，交易員們重新燃起了購買石油和燃料期貨的熱情，現在正在為市場調整做準備。路透社的John Kemp在其每周專欄中稱，對衝基金交易員放緩了原油和衍生品合約的購買，並指出這是交易員們連續第五周大舉買入。
然而，即使在美國開始接種疫苗，這種需求也很難維持，主要有兩個原因:一是接種疫苗需要的時間；二是石油的基本面情況。
輝瑞在美國上市的疫苗獲得監管部門批准，是石油市場朝著看漲方向邁出的重要一步，但這只是眾多舉措中的第一步。在有效性和物流方面仍然存在挑戰。美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)報導稱，雖然第一批醫務人員已經接種了疫苗，但大多數美國人需要數月時間才能完成疫苗的接種。
今年年初，美國購買了1億劑輝瑞疫苗，這意味著將有5000萬人接種，因為疫苗需要打兩劑。輝瑞製藥公司表示，在2021年年中之前無法供應額外的數量。簡而言之，要想一切恢復正常還需要一段時間。
歐洲在疫苗接種方面也存在不確定性，各國政府對強制接種新冠肺炎疫苗持謹慎態度，不過，公眾對疫苗越來越不信任，這可能會影響通過接種實現群體免疫的努力。
此外，石油的供需問題也可能會阻礙最近這輪油價的上漲。歐佩克正準備從明年1月開始將日產量增加50萬桶。美國已經在增加產量。
與此同時，歐佩克下調了今年的石油需求預期。預計，自今年初以來，原油日需求量將下降970萬桶，平均為8999萬桶/天。2021年的需求預期也被下調，歐佩克目前預計，2021年的平均石油需求為9589萬桶/天，這較2020年的情況相比有很大改善，但仍比之前的預測低41萬桶/天。
與此同時，亞洲從疫情中復甦無疑對油價有利，歐洲漸漸解除第二輪封鎖也是有力因素。據彭博社最近報導，隨著印度、中國和日本的汽油需求出現反彈，燃油庫存一直在穩步消耗。對許多分析師來說，需求反彈只是時間問題。2021年儘管面臨挑戰，但扔給價格帶來上行支持。
能源方面專家表示：「石油是所有通貨膨脹資產中最便宜的，隨著疫苗的推出，我們預計投資者將開始重返石油行業，油價將繼續堅挺。」還有專家表示：「過去幾周，價格上漲勢頭明顯放緩，儘管可能需要一些新的或出乎意料的牛市消息,才能把市場推向新的高點。我們也注意到，市場似乎已經獲得了對悲觀的頭條新聞的免疫力。」
換言之，籠罩在石油上空的「烏雲」開始消散，雖然可能需要一段時間才能完全消失，但需求正在好轉，這也是目前唯一最重要的因素。
王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
原文如下：
Is It Time For A Correction In Oil Markets?
Crude oil prices rose to the highest since early spring after the FDA yesterday gave the green light to the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine, with government officials saying several hundred vaccination sites across the country would be supplied with vaccines by tomorrow. But traders—who have been buying oil and fuels futures with renewed eagerness over the past few weeks—are now preparing for a market correction. Traders from hedge funds slowed down their purchases of crude oil and derivatives contracts, Reuters』 John Kemp said in his weekly column, noting that this is the fifth week in a row when traders have been buying with a voracious appetite.
This appetite will be difficult to sustain, though, even after vaccinations start in the United States, for two main reasons: how long it will take to vaccinate the population and oil’s fundamentals.
The regulatory approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for the United States was a major step in a bullish direction for oil, but it was the first of many. Challenges remain concerning both availability and logistics. CNN reported yesterday that while the first medical workers were vaccinated on Monday, it would take months for most Americans to be vaccinated.
The federal government bought 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine earlier this year, which means 50 million people will be vaccinated since it’s a two-dose vaccine. Pfizer has now said it would be unable to supply additional quantities until the middle of next year.
In short, it will be a while before things begin to return to normal.
Europe is also in an uncertain position with vaccinations. Governments are wary of making the Covid-19 vaccination obligatory, but there is growing public mistrust in the Covid-19 vaccines that may compromise efforts to achieve herd immunity through inoculation.
Then there is the question of oil supply and demand that could take the wheels off this latest price rally. OPEC is preparing to start pumping half a million barrels daily more from January. The U.S. is already pumping more.
At the same time, OPEC yesterday lowered its oil demand forecast for this year. The cartel now expects demand to have fallen by 9.7 million bpd since the start of the year, averaging 89.99 million bpd. The demand projection for 2021 was also revised down. OPEC now expects 2021 oil demand to average 95.89 million bpd, which would be a solid improvement on 2020 but still 410,000 bpd lower than earlier projections.
Then there’s Iran, which last week said it expected to be exporting 2.3 million bpd of oil next year, confident it could reach a deal with the Biden administration regarding sanctions that are currently stifling its oil exports. A deal is not exactly certain: while Biden has signaled he is ready to negotiate, Iran has in its turn signaled it would not be the first one to make concessions. Also, the U.S. energy industry is not looking forward to another price slump and might exert some pressure on the president-elect.
At the same time, the Asian recovery from the pandemic is certainly bullish for oil, as is Europe’s exit from the second round of lockdowns. According to a recent Bloomberg report, fuel inventories have been draining steadily, with India, China, and Japan reporting a rebound in gasoline demand. For many analysts, the rebound is only a matter of time, and this time appears to be next year, putting upward pressure on prices despite the challenges.
「Oil is the cheapest of all reflation assets,」 according to Energy Aspects』 Amrita Sen, who spoke to Bloomberg. 「With vaccines slowly rolling out, we expect investors to start returning to the oil sector and for prices to continue firming.」
「Price momentum has slowed appreciably during the past couple of weeks and while some fresh or unexpected bullish headlines may be required to advance the complex into new high territory, we will also note a market that appears to have developed immunity to bearish headlines that would normally be slapping the complex down,」 another analyst, Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch Associates, told Reuters.
The clouds over oil, in other words, are beginning to clear. It might take a while for them to clear completely, but demand is on the mend, and ultimately, this is the single most important factor right now.