來源：國是直通車
危中尋機
他是全球私募巨頭——黑石集團的聯合創始人、董事長史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼(Steve Schwarzman)，他還有一個中文名字，蘇世民。
1985年，蘇世民與當時雷曼兄弟的董事長彼得·彼得森（Peter G. Peterson）共同投資40萬美元創建黑石集團，由此踏上了一條未知的創業道路。
面臨過多次危機，但總能「危中尋機」。
截至2019年末，黑石管理規模達5710億美元資產，業務涉及私募股權投資、房地產投資、對衝基金解決方案、信貸投資等。
從40萬到5710億美元，蘇世民如何成為華爾街的「私募之王」？
近日，中新社國是直通車專訪了蘇世民。
國是直通車：回顧過去，哪次投資交易讓您最驕傲、最滿意？哪一次又讓您最失望、最後悔？
蘇世民：我對於黑石的很多交易項目都非常自豪，並對投資過程中展現出黑石模式的一致性引以為傲。
其中一個讓我印象深刻的交易案例是黑石於2007年秋季以260億美金收購希爾頓酒店。
希爾頓酒店是全球最知名的酒店品牌之一，收購希爾頓讓我們獲得了改善和拓展酒店業務的機會，為此我們很興奮。
但是，在交易完成僅幾個月後，全球金融危機就讓世界陷入一片混亂，希爾頓的價值比初始投資時下降了70％。
但作為長期投資者，儘管受到媒體和其他人士的批評，我們仍在推進我們的轉型計劃：我們將酒店房間數量增加了一倍，實施各種節能計劃，並努力改善公司文化。
2018年，在買入希爾頓11年後，黑石出售了希爾頓。很明顯我們的策略獲得了回報。這是有史以來最賺錢的私募股權交易，我們的投資者獲益頗豐，同時希爾頓酒店經過我們的改造，也變得更好。
另一方面，在1980年代後期，黑石集團對一家名為埃德科姆(Edgcomb)的鋼鐵公司進行了一次非常糟糕的投資，使我們的投資者損失了巨額資金。
向我提出這個想法的人告訴我，這是一筆偉大的投資；但另一位同事警告說，該公司存在缺陷。
我選錯了人。交易完成後不久公司就分崩離析。儘管當時對我而言這不啻一場巨災，但它也迫使我徹底重塑黑石集團評估交易流程，這是我們在隨後數十年中取得成功的關鍵。
國是直通車：在您的新書《蘇世民：我的經驗與教訓》中提到，您曾經經歷過7次大規模的市場下滑或衰退，那麼您如何看待現在疫情對全球經濟和金融市場造成的影響？
蘇世民：在我的職業生涯中，我經歷過許多不同的市場周期。毫無疑問，這次市場周期的影響極其深遠。
我們從來沒有自願停止過如此規模的經濟活動，這將帶來廣泛影響。但是，我相信世界將會度過這場危機，經濟增長率也將大幅提高。
目前世界各國政府正在採取重要措施，以避免出現更嚴重的情況。
對於公司或投資者，我的建議是首先關注公司或所有被投企業中員工的健康和安全，與團隊緊密合作鞏固現有業務並幫助他們應對當前的危機。然後，從當前的市場混亂中尋找創新或投資的機會。
國是直通車：有人說您的新書價值15億美元的，大家都希望從裡面學到投資妙方，您有什麼妙方跟大家分享嗎？
蘇世民：在我的職業生涯中，我學到了很多東西，尤其是在過去的35年裡，我將黑石打造成了世界上最大的另類資產管理公司。
有一些教訓是從我的成就中學到的，但更多的是從我一生中所犯下的各種錯誤中學到的。
書中關於甄別機會、風險管理、招賢納士、建立企業內部文化和回饋他人等經驗教訓，可以幫助所有人在工作和生活中取得更大的成功，無論他們追尋的最終目標是什麼。我也希望證明，挫折是職業生涯中一個自然的組成部分。接受失敗並從中學習是你最值得做的事情之一。
國是直通車：這次疫情是否使黑石今年或未來一段時間投資策略發生改變？房地產是黑石的重頭業務，您如何看待當下和未來全球各地的房地產投資趨勢和機會？
蘇世民：黑石目前的企業運營狀況非常強勁，我們的企業結構能夠適應當前的環境。
作為長期投資者，我們能夠在困難時期支持我們投資的企業，也可以在當前市場混亂時期，尋找到新的高質量公司進行投資。
我們對這一策略的信心比以往任何時候都更加堅定。
在房地產領域，我們對那些順應發展趨勢的投資主題有很強的信心。
例如，我們注意到電子商務和倉儲需求的不斷增長為物流行業帶來重要發展機會。由於旅遊和商業經營受到疫情影響，個人和企業均面臨財務壓力，受此影響，房地產的某些特定領域面臨顯著挑戰。隨著全球各地逐漸恢復正常，整體的情況將有所改善。
國是直通車：有人說，疫情下中國成了避風港，而人民幣資產成了避險資產，您認同這樣的說法嗎？黑石如何看中國的投資機遇？
蘇世民：中國第一季度國內生產總值（GDP）大幅下降是在預料之中的，對中國來說也是史無前例的。但我相信，全球將一起克服這場危機，我們將看到經濟增長率大幅提高。
中國具有天然優勢，這將使它再次成為世界上增長最強勁的國家之一。
黑石集團自1992年就已經開始在中國從事商業活動，未來也將會在這裡持續尋找有吸引力的長期投資機會。
國是直通車：最近來看，華爾街情緒好像穩定一些了，美股也不再一路下跌，您如何看待美股之前經歷的暴跌？現在的美股可是說是擺脫泥潭了嗎？
蘇世民：美國及世界各國政府的快速應對有助於緩解疫情對經濟的直接影響，這是值得讚揚的，但仍需繼續努力，因為整體的復甦尚需時日。
當前市場的波動很大程度上是因為疫情形勢仍充滿不確定性，隨著我們對病毒的進一步了解，這種不確定性將降低。我更關注的是經濟的長期健康狀況，而不是短期的股市動蕩。
國是直通車：面對現在疫情在全球蔓延，怎麼樣才能解決問題？您對於各國政府有什麼樣的建議？
蘇世民：目前世界各國正處於新冠肺炎疫情的不同階段，並面臨嚴峻考驗。此次疫情為我們提供了一次獨特的學習機會，我們可以就如何應對公共衛生威脅和經濟挑戰而借鑑彼此的最佳經驗。
世界各國政府也似乎在短期內提供了強有力的支持和經濟刺激措施。在目前的情況下，這些措施對於經濟度過初期困難階段並實現復甦至關重要。
國是直通車：疫情是否會改變中美間的關係？疫情過後，中美的貿易摩擦走勢會怎麼樣？
蘇世民：2020年1月的中美第一階段協議是至關重要的第一步。隨著中美兩國各自忙於應對國內疫情帶來的挑戰，後續階段的貿易談判進展自然會受到影響。但是，解決所有貿易緊張局面符合兩國長遠的共同利益。
我始終堅信，兩國之間深層次的理解對兩國長期和平繁榮發展前景至關重要。
這也是我於2013年啟動蘇世民學者項目的初衷。該項目面向全球選拔最優秀、最具有智慧的本科畢業生，到清華大學蘇世民書院進行為期一年的研究生學習，學業完成後將獲得清華大學全球事務碩士學位。項目旨在培養具有全球視野的領導人才，促進中國與世界在不同專業領域的理解與交流。
國是直通車：您說過，信息是最重要的商業資產。現在中國提出「新基建」，包括5G、AI、物聯網的基礎建設，您怎麼看？
蘇世民：信息對於任何一家公司的決策都至關重要，尤其是投資機構。在黑石，我們很早就意識到這一點，並且一直以來特別注重在一些新領域的拓展，我們認為這些領域能夠提升公司整體的智力資本，提升我們的投資能力。
受益於此，我們所投企業的範圍之廣、多元化程度之深，在行業內獨樹一幟。
過去，數據獲取對於投資者而言是最大的挑戰，但如今手指一敲，源源不斷的信息隨之而來、取之不盡，因此，現在這一挑戰演變成為如何找到其他人沒有的數據獲取模式。
於是，投資者轉向人工智慧這類科技，作為應對這一挑戰的潛在解決方案。我認為，我們將持續看到投資者們創造性地運用人工智慧技術。
中國在這一領域是領先者，並且目前在人工智慧和5G技術領域投入巨大，將帶來長遠的裨益。
人工智慧是我個人很感興趣的一個話題。這源於我與馬雲的一次對話，馬雲當時提到對於人工智慧對人類社會的利弊分析，商界與學術界領袖存在廣泛分歧。
這最終使我將人工智慧作為我近期慈善項目的重要組成部分，包括創立麻省理工蘇世民計算機學院，在牛津大學新成立的蘇世民人文中心，都將繼續探索這些相關話題。
附英文採訪實錄：
Q:As we all know, you have had a very successful career. Looking back, which investment or transaction are you most proud of and satisfied with? Which ones disappointed you most?
A:I am proud of so many of our individual deals at Blackstone – and am also proud of the consistency we have shown across our investing businesses.
One highlight for me was Blackstone’s $26 billion acquisition of Hilton in the fall of 2007. Hilton was one of the world’s best-known brands and we were excited about the opportunities to improve and expand the business, including internationally. Just months after we closed the deal, however, the world was upended by the global financial crisis. In the midst of the crisis, we calculated that the value of Hilton was down 70% from our initial investment.
But we are long term investors – our model is uniquely suited to allow us to weather these types of market cycles. Despite some criticism from the press and others, we forged ahead with our plans to transform the company, doubling the number of rooms in the portfolio, implementing a variety of energy-efficiency initiatives, and making changes to improve the company culture.
In 2018, 11 years after our initial investment, we finally sold the business and it was clear that our strategy paid off. It was the most profitable private equity deal in history, greatly benefiting our investors, and we had transformed the company for the better.
I was immensely proud that Hilton was just named the #1 Best Place to Work in the United States by Fortune Magazine for the second consecutive year, as well as the Best Workplace for Women. Our investment in Hilton demonstrates the power of the Blackstone model, even in challenging circumstances.
On the other hand, in the late-1980s, Blackstone made a very poor investment in a company called Edgcomb Steel and lost significant money for our investors.
The person who pitched me the idea told me it was a great investment, but another colleague warned that the company was flawed. I picked the wrong person and soon after the company fell apart.
While this was devastating at the time it forced me to completely reshape Blackstone’s process for evaluating deals, which has been a key to our success in the decades that followed.
Q:You mention in your book that you have experienced seven market recessions. What is your opinion regarding COVID-19’s impact on the global economy and financial markets?
A：I have been through a lot of different market cycles in my career, and without a doubt this one is far reaching. Never before have we voluntarily suspended economic activity at this scale, and the impacts will be extensive.
But I’m confident that the world will get to the other side of this crisis and we will see economic growth rates improve materially. Governments around the world are taking important steps to avoid a more severe scenario.
My advice for companies or investors is to focus first on the health and safety of employees at your firm or across your portfolio. Work closely with your teams to shore up your existing businesses and help them manage through the current crises. Then, you may begin looking for opportunities to innovate or invest based on the current dislocation we are seeing.
Q：Some people say that your new book is worth $1.5 billion. Everyone wants to learn more about your investment strategies and approaches. What do you want readers to learn from your new book?
A:I』ve learned a tremendous amount over my career, particularly in the last 35 years building Blackstone into the largest alternative asset manager in the world. Some of these lessons were learned from my successes, but even more came from the various mistakes I made over my lifetime.
The lessons in the book about identifying opportunity, managing risk, attracting talent, building an internal culture and giving back to others can help anyone be more successful in work and life, regardless of their pursuits. I also hope to demonstrate that setbacks are a natural part of a career. Learning and adapting from failures is one of the most powerful things you can do.
Q:Has the pandemic changed Blackstone’s investment strategy this year or will it change in the near future? As real estate is Blackstone’s business focus, how do you view current and future real estate investment trends and opportunities around the world?
A:Blackstone is in exceptionally strong shape and is structured to weather environments like this. We are long term investors, which means we can help support our current portfolio in times of crisis and also look for opportunities to invest in new, high-quality companies during the current market dislocation. Our confidence in this approach remains stronger than ever.
In real estate, we are high conviction investors behind themes that have strong tailwinds. For example, we continue to see compelling opportunities in logistics from the growth in e-commerce and demand for warehouses.
Certain areas of real estate face obvious challenges as travel and commerce is limited by the virus and individuals and companies are under financial stress. This will improve as the world returns to normal.
Q:Some people say that China has become a safe haven and that the Renminbi is a safe haven asset in the midst of the pandemic. Do you agree with this? What is Blackstone’s opinion on investment opportunities in China?
A:China experienced a sharp drop in the country’s first quarter GDP, which was expected but unprecedented for the country.
But I’m confident that the world will get to the other side of this crisis and we will see economic growth rates improve materially.
China has natural advantages that will make it emerge again as one of the strongest growing countries in the world. Blackstone has been active in China since 1992 and will continue to look for compelling, long term investment opportunities.
Q:Recent chaos on Wall Street has somewhat subsided and US equities are no longer falling. Has the US equity market seen the back of this downturn?
A:Rapid efforts by the US government and others around the world deserve credit for helping to mitigate some of the immediate economic impacts, but the efforts will need to continue, and the recovery will take time.
Much of the volatility in the markets was driven by the uncertainty of the situation, which will calm as we learn more about the virus. I am more focused on the long-term economic health rather than shorter term public market volatility.
Q:In terms of mutually beneficial cooperation, you have mentioned in your book that 「most people in trouble only focus on their own affairs, and the way to get out of the trouble usually lies in solving others』 problems.」 How should we deal with the problems of a global pandemic? What are your suggestions for governments all over the world?
A:Countries around the world are facing the challenges of the virus on different timelines. This presents the unique opportunity for us to learn from one another on how best to respond to both the health threats and economic challenges.
Governments around the world appear to be providing strong support and economic stimulus in the near term. These actions are critical in a situation like this to allow the economy to make it through the initial period and to recovery.
Q:Last year, Sino-US trade friction was a big concern. Now, however, COVID-19 has become a bigger issue. Do you think that the pandemic will change the relationship between China and the US?
A:The initial trade agreement in January 2020 was a significant first step for the US-China relationship. Progress towards additional phases will naturally be impacted as the US and China each manage the domestic challenges of coronavirus, but it remains in the long-term mutual interest of both countries to resolve all trade tensions.
I』ve been a firm believer that nurturing a deeper level of understanding between the two countries is key to long-term prospects of peace and prosperity. This is what inspired me to establish Schwarzman Scholars in 2013, a highly selective global fellowship program that sponsors the best and brightest from around the world to spend a year at Schwarzman College in Beijing earning a one-year master’s degree in global affairs from the world-renown Tsinghua University.
The program’s mission is to build a global network of dynamic leaders who throughout their careers can deepen understanding and foster communication between China and the rest of the world, across many different professional fields.
Q:You mentioned in your book that information is the most important business asset and that digital technology is the foundation of information. What stage of development is the global digital technology in now? People think that China’s mobile internet and digital technologies are developing very well. What do you think? Currently, China is proposing the construction of new infrastructure, including 5G, AI and the Internet of Things. What does this mean for information as a business asset?
A:Information is critical to decision making at any company – particularly investment firms. We recognized this early at Blackstone and have been deliberate about expanding into new areas that we thought would add to the overall intellectual capital of the firm and strengthen everything we did on behalf of our clients. The scale and diversity of our investing businesses today is a unique benefit.
Access to data used to be the biggest challenge for investors, but today, with a seemingly endless amount of information at everyone’s fingertips, the challenge is more about spotting patterns that others have not.
Investors are turning to technologies like artificial intelligence as a possible solution to this challenge, and I think you will continue to see investors use AI in creative ways.
China is a leader in this area and is investing heavily in AI and 5G technologies, much to its long-term benefit.
AI is a topic in which I have personally been interested. This was sparked by a conversation with Jack Ma, who described how business and academic leaders widely disagreed on whether AI was a benefit or threat to society. This eventually led me to make AI a key part of my recent philanthropic efforts, and I have helped create the new Schwarzman College of Computing at MIT and the new Schwarzman Center for the Humanities at Oxford University which will explore these topics.