中國石化新聞網訊 據阿拉伯貿易12月17日消息稱,根據國際能源署(IEA)的一份新報告,在經歷了幾十年來最大的降幅後,全球電力需求預計將在明年溫和反彈,主要由中國、印度和其他新興經濟體引領。
IEA首份電力市場報告稱,新冠肺炎危機帶來的歷史性衝擊將導致2020年全球電力需求下降2%。隨著2021年世界經濟的復甦,預計電力需求將增長3%左右。這將大大低於2010年全球金融危機後需求反彈超過7%的水平。到2020年,中國將是唯一一個電力需求增加的主要經濟體。
然而,其2%左右的預期增長率遠低於近期6.5%的平均水平。包括美國、印度、歐洲、日本、韓國和東南亞在內的其他用電大戶,今年全年都將經歷用電下降。
據預測,2020年可再生能源(如水電、風能和太陽能)的發電量將增長近7%,從而擠壓傳統能源發電。燃煤發電量將下降5%左右,這是有史以來的最大降幅; 核電發電量下降4%左右;燃氣發電量提高2%。總體而言,到2020年,發電產生的二氧化碳排放量將下降5%。
IEA執行主任法提赫?比羅爾博士表示:「電力在當今能源世界中扮演著核心角色——隨著清潔能源轉型的加速,這一角色的重要性只會上升。根據現有的最新數據,IEA的新電力市場報告對這一關鍵領域提供了新的見解。從明年開始,我們將每半年出版一個新版本的報告。」
需求下降、燃料價格下降和可再生能源發電的增加,已經拉低了2020年的批發電價。IEA電力批發市場價格指數跟蹤主要發達經濟體的價格走勢,該指數顯示,繼2019年下跌12%之後,今年平均下跌28%。
2021年,可再生能源發電的增長預計將保持在6%以上,將可再生能源在電力結構中的份額從2020年的28%擴大到29%。由於法國和日本的反彈,以及中國和阿聯的新核電站即將上線,明年的核電增長預計將達到2.5%。
在發達經濟體,可再生能源和核能的發展將繼續縮小化石燃料剩餘的發電空間。由於預計天然氣價格將上漲,天然氣受到的影響可能比煤炭更大。在新興和發展中經濟體,預計需求增長將超過可再生能源和核能的增長,為煤炭和天然氣發電留下一定的擴張空間。
朱佳妮 摘譯自 阿拉伯貿易
原文如下:
Global electricity demand to rebound in 2021: IEA
After experiencing its biggest decline in decades, global electricity demand is expected to rebound modestly next year, led by growth in China, India and other emerging economies, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The historic shock of the Covid-19 crisis is set to result in a 2% decline in global electricity demand in 2020, according to the IEA’s first ever Electricity Market Report. With the recovery of the world economy in 2021, electricity demand is forecast to grow by around 3%. That would be significantly weaker than the rebound in demand of over 7% in 2010, the year following the global financial crisis. China will be the only major economy to see higher electricity demand in 2020.
However, its expected growth of around 2% is well below its recent average of 6.5%. Other big electricity consumers including the US, India, Europe, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia are all set to experience declines for the year as a whole.
Electricity generation from renewable energy – such as hydropower, wind and solar – is forecast to grow by almost 7% in 2020, squeezing conventional power sources. Coal-fired generation is set to fall by around 5%, the largest decrease on record; nuclear power generation by around 4%; and gas-fired electricity generation by 2%. Overall, CO2 emissions from electricity generation are on course to fall by 5% in 2020.
「Electricity has a central role in today’s energy world – a role that will only increase in importance as clean energy transitions accelerate,」 said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. 「Based on the very latest data available, the IEA’s new Electricity Market Report provides fresh insights on this critical sector. Starting next year, we will publish a new edition of the report on a half-yearly basis.」
Falling demand, lower fuel prices and the increase in renewable generation have dragged down wholesale electricity prices in 2020. The IEA’s wholesale electricity market price index, which tracks price movements in major advanced economies, shows an average price decline of 28% this year, after having already fallen by 12% in 2019.
The growth of renewable power generation is forecast to continue in 2021 with an increase of more than 6%, expanding the share of renewables in the power mix to 29% from 28% in 2020. Nuclear power is set for growth of 2.5% next year on rebounds in France and Japan and new plants coming online in China and the UAE.
In advanced economies, the growth of renewables and nuclear power will continue to shrink the space remaining for fossil fuel generation. Natural gas is likely to be impacted more than coal as a result of an expected rise in natural gas prices. In emerging and developing economies, demand growth is forecast to outpace increases in renewables and nuclear power, leaving some room for coal and gas generation to expand.