中國石化新聞網訊 據Oil & Gas Journal網站12月9日報導 根據雷斯塔能源公司的一份報告，儘管由於疫情影響和能源轉型加速，未來需求減少，除非勘探大幅加快，資本支出至少達到3萬億美元，否則到2050年，全球將耗盡足夠的石油供應，以滿足其需求。
為了滿足未來30年的全球累計需求，目前的生產資產中需要增加未開發和未發現的資源，總計3130億桶石油。據雷斯塔能源計算，為了滿足這一要求，勘探項目必須在2050年前發現一個有價值開發1390億桶新石油的資源，如果這十年的低勘探活動水平持續下去，這是一項不可能完成的任務。
這一目標較高，因為並非所有現有的發現量都利於開發。
雷斯塔能源高級上遊分析師Palzor Shenga說：「理論上，2021年至2050年間，未開發石油供應總量將達到2480億桶。然而，當我們深入研究這些發現，審視它們的發現年代和現狀，我們發現約740億桶的原油不太可能實現，需要被新發現所代替。」
吳恆磊 編譯自 Oil & Gas Journal
原文如下：
Rystad: Exploration must be accelerated to meet world oil demand
The world is on track to run out of sufficient oil supplies to meet its needs through 2050, despite lower future demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the accelerating energy transition unless exploration speeds up significantly and capital expenditure of at least $3 trillion is put to the task, according to a Rystad Energy report.
To meet the global cumulative demand over the next 30 years, undeveloped and undiscovered resources totaling 313 billion bbl of oil need to be added to currently producing assets. Rystad Energy calculates that, to match this requirement, exploration programs will have to discover a worthy-to-develop resource of 139 billion new barrels of liquids by 2050, an impossible task if this decade’s low exploration activity levels persist, it said.
The target is high because not all existing discovered volumes are profitable to develop.
「In theory, the total undeveloped supply would amount to 248 billion bbl of oil between 2021 and 2050. However, when we dive deeper into these discoveries and look at their discovery decade and current status, we find that about 74 billion bbl are highly unlikely to materialize and need to be replaced by new discoveries,」 said Palzor Shenga, senior upstream analyst at Rystad Energy.