作者劉元春，中國人民大學副校長，本文刊發於3月30日China Daily。
(後附中文譯本)
The COVID-19 pandemic has sent the world economy into a potential recession, and some experts believe the worst is yet to come.It is, therefore,sensible for China to adjust policy plans to weather the possible external blow in the second quarter of this year.
Recent plunges in worldwide stock markets have sparked heated discussions over whether another global financial crisis of the kind seen in 2008-09 is coming and if it would drag the world into an economic crisis.
The truth is, even if we do not consider any possible future market turmoil caused by the rampant coronavirus,the world economy, it can be argued, may have already entered a recessionary cycle.
That's because the virus has hit the Chinese economy, the biggest engine of global growth, while the stock market meltdown has dealt a blow to global investment and demand.
Leading economic indicators, especially the world Purchasing Managers' Index, have weakened and indicated drastic contraction in demand. Most econometric models showed that global growth has shifted to negative figures.
Most research reports in the United States foresee zero growth of the US economy in the first quarter of the year, and the second quarter may see a negative 5-percent growth. Germany, France, Italy, and Spain may also experience negative growth in the first quarter as the pandemic bites.
Yet, things could become even worse. It is highly probable that most governments will resort to nationwide, stringent containment measures to combat the highly contagious virus.
In the initial stage of the pandemic, many governments chose to conduct limited control out of political and economic considerations. But as the virus spread accelerates and sparks social panic, more and more will change to total control measures like lockdowns or curfews.
The tipping point may come when the infection rate reaches one in 10,000. By now, the United Kingdom has shifted from the herd immunity strategy into nationwide lockdown, while nearly one-third of the US population have been asked to stay at home.
The widespread use of such lockdowns worldwide is not only a severe blow to global tourism and airline industries, but could push major economies to a standstill and even shock.
This will be an extreme situation that the globalization era has not witnessed.A global pandemic like the COVID-19 contagion is rare in history, so would be its economic impacts.We must go beyond conventional logic to understand the current global economy.
The global standstill can lead to a shortterm slowdown as well as a deep mid-term recession. Global supply and demand will both get hurt as economic activity that requires human contacts freezes and as supply chains get injured and even broken.
Stock markets across the world may further drop as dim expectations deepen. As risk appetite contracts drastically, companies may face difficulty in maintaining liquidity and keeping cash flow running. Defaults can occur under the double whammy of souring profitability and cash flow, breaking the chain of debt repayments and causing fluctuations in both the bond and foreign exchange markets.
Moreover, it may be costly to help the global supply chain recover from the pandemic in a world where populism prevails and geopolitical conflicts intensify. Also, the out-of-sync work resumption in different economies will extend the time needed for recovery.
In short,the short-term economic standstill worldwide may have an adverse impact that surpasses a typical financial crisis, especially as the global economy is now highly specialized.
For this analysis, I have not taken a possible financial market collapse into consideration. If stock market turmoil and economic slowdown lead to a financial crisis, the worst for the global economy will likely be inescapable.
The global growth model driven by low-cost debt since the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis will come to an end by then, with collapses of weak links in the model.
The first weak link is the high indebtedness of the non-financial corporate sector. According to the US-based Institute of International Finance, non-financial corporate debt has surpassed $200 trillion. For highly-leveraged companies, borrowing to repay existing debt has become a widespread practice as regular income cannot cover repayments. During the time of crisis, such borrowing will be hard to sustain.
The second weak link is emerging market (EM) economies with a heavy burden of foreign currency-denominated external debt. By the end of last year, the median of EM economies' ratio of outstanding external debt to exports had risen to 160 percent from 100 percent in 2008. Fluctuations in forex rates and financial markets could lead to substantive difficulty in debt repayments.
Other potential landmines are the rising leveraged loans and high-yield bonds in the US, which are financing instruments of low-credit-quality companies, as well as worldwide small and medium-sized enterprises that are more vulnerable to economic standstills and will find it harder to recover than larger companies.
The COVID-19 pandemic is an inescapable reality right now.But it is still highly uncertain whether it will end in high temperatures or on technology advances.This is in turn causing uncertainties of global policy response and the magnitude and trajectory of global recession.
In face of high uncertainties, it is sensible for Chinese policymakers to stick with the bottom-line mindset, adjust perceptions of the situation and reposition policy plans.
The current policy plan is based on assumptions of a relatively stable external economic environment or a mild contraction, which may not be enough to deal with possible super external shocks.
We must realize that the world economy has been trapped in what now appears to be an inevitable recession, so China must gradually change the policy focus from work resumption to preventing or at least cushioning external blows.
We must realize the potential economic standstill may induce losses more severe than a typical economic crisis and force China to overcome a major challenge in stabilizing foreign trade and investment.
We must realize that a possible global financial crisis may be devastating and cannot be analyzed by conventional frameworks.
In light of these perceptions, China needs to take actions in advance to weather the potential super-blow dealt by the pandemic and the global economic and financial fallout, which may manifest from the April-June period.
First, China can further expand domestic demand to counter external challenges by repositioning fiscal and monetary policies. Positive fiscal policy should not be confined to the deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3 percent or 3.5 percent, while monetary policy must cushion economic and liquidity contraction.
Second, the authorities should keep a close eye on the condition of export-oriented industries amid the global supply chain disruption, helping them to avoid suffering from serious external blows.
Third, as populism and protectionism may flare up due to economic standstills, it should be key mid-term policy focus for China to avoid the substitution of its industry chain and to prevent economic and technology decoupling with developed economies.
中文譯本：
劉元春：防範全球性危機，中國須提前行動
COVID-19大流行使世界經濟已經使世界陷入潛在的衰退，一些專家認為，最糟糕的時刻還沒有到來。因此，對中國而言，調整政策計劃以抵禦今年第二季度可能出現的外部打擊是明智的。
當前大家都在熱議，全球股市「史詩般」的下挫是否會引發類似2008年的金融危機，進而導致世界陷入新一輪的經濟危機？
事實是，即使我們不考慮由猖獗的冠狀病毒引起的任何未來市場動蕩，也已經可以說，世界經濟可能已經進入衰退周期。
這是因為疫情已經使中國經濟受到較大的衝擊，而中國是世界經濟增長的第一引擎，而股市暴跌打擊了全球投資和需求。
領先的經濟指標，特別是世界採購經理人指數，已經減弱，表明需求急劇萎縮。大多數計量經濟學模型表明，全球增長已轉為負數。
美國的大多數研究報告預計，今年第一季度美國經濟將為零增長，第二季度可能會出現5％的負增長。深受疫情衝擊的德國、法國、義大利以及西班牙，一季度也可能進入負增長區域。
情況可能會變得更糟。大多數政府很可能會採取全國性的、嚴格的遏制措施來對抗具有高傳染性的新冠病毒。
在疫情初發期，許多政府出於政治和經濟考慮，選擇進行有限的控制。但是隨著病毒的傳播加速並引發社會恐慌，越來越多的政府將改變為全面控制措施，例如封鎖或宵禁。
這個轉折點可能出現在感染率達到萬分之一的臨界點前後。到目前為止，英國已從群體免疫戰略轉變為全國關停，而超過一半的美國人口被要求留在家中。
這種關停措施在全球範圍內的廣泛使用不僅會對全球旅遊業和航空業造成沉重打擊，而且可能使主要經濟體陷入停擺甚至休克。
這將是全球化時代尚未見過的極端情況。像COVID-19傳染病這樣的全球性大流行在歷史上是罕見的，其經濟影響也是如此。我們必須超越常規邏輯來認識當前的全球經濟。
全球停滯不前可能導致短期放緩以及嚴重的中期衰退。隨著需要人際交往的經濟活動凍結，以及供應鏈受到削弱或斷裂，全球供求都將受到傷害。
隨著黯淡的預期加深，全球股市可能進一步下跌。由於風險偏好急劇收縮，公司可能在維持流動性和保持現金流方面面臨困難。在盈利能力和現金流惡化的雙重打擊下，可能會發生違約，引致債務償還鏈破裂，並導致債券和外匯市場的波動。
此外，在一個民粹主義盛行、地緣政治衝突加劇的世界中，幫助全球供應鏈從大流行中恢復可能代價高昂。此外，不同經濟體不同步的經濟活動重啟將延長恢復所需的時間。
簡而言之，全球範圍內的短期經濟停擺可能會產生超過典型的金融危機的不利影響，尤其是當全球經濟高度專業化分工時。
對於此分析，我們沒有考慮可能的金融市場崩潰。如果股市動蕩和經濟放緩導致金融危機，那麼對全球經濟最不利的情況將不可避免。
自2008-09年全球金融危機以來，由低成本債務驅動的全球增長模式到那時將終結，伴隨著該模式中薄弱環節的瓦解。
第一個薄弱環節是非金融企業部門的高負債。根據美國國際金融研究所統計，非金融公司債務已超過200萬億美元。對於槓桿率很高的公司，借新還舊已成為一種普遍做法，因為常規收入無法覆蓋本息。在危機時期，這種借貸將難以維持。
第二個薄弱環節是新興市場經濟體，外幣計價的外債負擔沉重。到去年年底，新興市場經濟體未償還外債與出口之比的中位數已從2008年的100％上升至160％。外匯匯率和金融市場的波動可能導致債務償還的實質性困難。
其他潛在的地雷是美國不斷上升的槓桿貸款和高收益債券，它們是低信用質量公司的融資工具；以及全球中小型企業，相比大公司，它們更容易受到經濟停擺的影響，且更難於恢復。
目前，COVID-19大流行是不可避免的現實。但是，它是否會在高溫或技術進步中終結仍是高度不確定的。相應地，這導致全球政策對策的不確定性以及全球衰退的程度和路徑的不確定性。
面對高度不確定性，明智的做法是，中國決策者要堅持底線思維，調整對形勢的認識和政策計劃。
當前的政策計劃是基於相對穩定的外部經濟環境或溫和收縮的假設，這可能不足以應對可能的超級外部衝擊。
必須認識到，世界經濟已陷入現在看起來已不可避免的衰退中，因此中國必須逐步將政策重點從復工復產轉變為防止或至少減輕外部打擊。
必須認識到，潛在的經濟停擺可能導致比典型的經濟危機更為嚴重的損失，並迫使中國克服重大挑戰才能「穩外貿」「穩外資」。
必須認識到，可能的全球金融危機可能是破壞性極大的，無法通過常規框架進行分析。
根據這些認識，中國需要提前採取行動，抵禦大流行和其全球經濟、金融影響所能帶來的超級打擊。這一衝擊這可能體現在4月至6月期間。
首先，中國可以通過調整財政和貨幣政策來進一步擴大內需，應對外部挑戰。積極的財政政策不應局限於赤字率3%或3.5%的約束，而貨幣政策必須對衝經濟和流動性的收縮。
第二，在全球供應鏈被擾亂的情況下，當局應密切關注出口型產業的狀況，以幫助它們避免遭受嚴重的外部打擊。
第三，由於民粹主義和保護主義可能會因經濟停擺而更為嚴重，中國應避免對其產業鏈的替代，並防止經濟和技術與發達經濟體脫鉤，這是十分重要的中期政策要點。