Japanese urged not to see rare fish as omen of earthquakes
日本人呼籲不要把稀有魚類視為地震的徵兆
來源：衛報 翻譯：世界播
Oarfish appearances are not the harbinger of earthquakes previously believed. Photograph: Mark Bussey/AP
皇帶魚的出現並不是先前認為的地震前兆。照片：馬克·布西/美聯社
People in Japan hoping to predict the next big earthquake should ignore mysterious deep-sea fish after experts said rare sightings of the creatures on the country’s beaches did not, as some had believed, foretell a seismic calamity.
日本專家日前表示，該國海灘上罕見的深海魚類並不能像有些人之前認為的那樣，預示著一場地震的來臨。因此，希望預測下一次大地震的日本人不應該過分關注這種神秘的深海魚類。
University researchers said they had debunked the theory of oarfish as a harbinger of doom by comparing sightings of deep-sea fish, including those caught in fishermen’s nets, with earthquake records going back more than 90 years.
大學研究人員表示，他們將深海魚類（包括那些被漁民漁網捕獲的魚類）的目擊記錄與90多年前的地震記錄進行了比較，從而揭穿了皇帶魚是厄運徵兆的真相。
「We thought that if we could understand the connection, it would be useful for disaster prevention,」 Yoshiaki Orihara of Tokai University’s Institute of Oceanic Research and Development said.
東海大學海洋研究與發展研究所的Yoshiaki Orihara表示：「我們以為，如果我們能夠理解兩者之間的聯繫，將有助於防災。」
The experts, however, found no correlation between the sightings and major earthquakes.
然而，專家們並沒有發現這些目擊事件和大地震之間有任何關聯。
They uncovered 363 reported sightings since 1928 of oarfish and seven other species of deep-sea fish that have long been associated with earthquakes, while there were 221 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater over the same period.
自1928年以來，他們發現了363起皇帶魚和其他7種深海魚類的目擊報告，這些魚類長期以來都與地震聯繫在一起，而同期發生了221起6級或以上的地震。
But the team, whose findings were published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, discovered that just one of those quakes – in July 2007 – had occurred within 30 days of a fish sighting.
但是，該研究小組（研究結果發表在《美國地震學會通報》上）發現，2007年7月發生的地震中，只有一次發生在目擊稀罕魚類後的30天內。
「It was disappointing to find no correlation, but we also want to investigate any connection between mass beachings of dolphins and whales with earthquakes in the future,」 Orihara told Kyodo.
「令人失望的是沒有發現任何相關性，但我們未來還想調查大量海豚和鯨魚擱淺與地震之間是否存在任何聯繫。」Yoshiaki Orihara告訴日本共同社。
The oarfish theory’s roots lie in Shokoku Rijin Dana, a collection of mystery stories published in the 18th century that makes a connection between deep-sea fish and seismic activity.
皇帶魚說法的根源在於18世紀出版的《Shokoku Rijin Dana》，這本神秘故事集將深海魚類與地震活動聯繫了起來。
Some experts have speculated that the creatures move to shallower waters when they sense electromagnetic changes caused by tectonic movement related to active faults, fuelling the popular belief that beached oarfish are an omen.
一些專家推測，當這些生物感覺到與活動斷層有關的構造運動引起的電磁變化時，它們就會遷移到較淺的水域，這助長了人們的普遍看法，即擱淺的皇帶魚是一種徵兆。
Several sightings of oarfish, whose dorsal fin runs the entire length of its body, on beaches or in stationary nets sparked fear of impending disaster earlier this year.
今年早些時候，人們在海灘上或固定式漁網中多次看到皇帶魚，引發了對災難即將來臨的擔憂。皇帶魚的背鰭長及全身。
While Japan’s early-warning system typically gives people several seconds to take cover before the arrival of a major earthquake, there is no proven method of predicting when tectonic plates will shift.
雖然日本的早期預警系統通常會在大地震到來前給人們幾秒鐘的時間躲避，但目前還沒有可靠的方法來預測地殼板塊何時會發生位移。
Some experts believe there is a 70% to 80% chance that a large area of Japan’s Pacific coast will experience a catastrophic earthquake within the next 30 years, with worst-case scenarios putting the death toll at more than 230,000 – more than ten times the number of deaths in the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in the country’s north-east.
一些專家認為，在未來30年內，日本太平洋沿岸大部分地區有70%至80%的可能性遭遇災難性地震，最壞的情況是死亡人數超過23萬——是2011年3月該國東北部地震和海嘯死亡人數的十倍以上。
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