Is Apple's New Lower-Priced Smartphone Its Secret Weapon?
蘋果新款低價智慧型手機是其「秘密武器」嗎?
Fresh off its $1 trillion market cap, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) held its annual product reveal last month. The company released a new flagship iPhone -- the XS (read 10 S) -- as well as a larger version of its top-of-the-line model, the XS Max. The devices had a number of pricing options starting at $999 and climbing as high as $1,449, depending on the model and amount of memory chosen.
市值破萬億美元不久後，蘋果於上月舉行了年度產品發布會，發布了新款旗艦機型——iPhone XS(即10S)，以及一款更大版本的頂級機型XS Max。這兩款機型有多種定價，起價為999美元，最高價格為1449美元，具體價格取決於所選的型號和容量。
One of the more surprising revelations from the event was the introduction of the iPhone XR. The lower-cost device contains a surprisingly robust set of features and carries a price tag 25% lower than the XS model. Many have noted that the XR could potentially cannibalize sales of the higher-priced models as consumers look for more cost-effective iPhone options from Apple.
更令人驚訝的是iPhone XR的推出，這款低成本的手機擁有令人驚訝的強大功能，而且價格比XS低25%。由於消費者尋求更划算的iPhone選擇，XR可能會蠶食高價iPhone機型的銷售。
Now, a renowned Apple follower is signaling that demand for the device could be much better than initially expected.
著名蘋果分析師表示對新機型的需求可能比最初預期的要大得多。
The analyst
Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, with TF International Securities, is known for his impressive track record regarding Apple product predictions. His insight into the company is the result of his close industry relationships and strong ties with many of the companies in Apple's supply chain.
分析師
天風國際證券著名分析師郭明錤以準確預測蘋果產品而聞名。他對蘋果公司的深入了解是由於他與蘋果供應鏈中的許多公司有著密切的行業關係和緊密的聯繫。
Earlier this week, Kuo increased his estimates for the calendar fourth quarter (which is Apple's fiscal first quarter). The analyst now believes iPhone shipments will top out between 78 million and 83 million, up from a prior estimate of 75 million to 80 million. This would result in an increase of 4% at the midpoint compared to the 77.3 million iPhones Apple sold in the prior-year quarter.
本周早些時候，郭明錤上調了他對今年第四季度的預期(即蘋果公司的第一財季)。他把第四季度的iPhone出貨量預期從7500萬部至8000萬部，上調至7800萬部至8300萬部。蘋果在去年同期售出了7730萬部iPhone，因此iPhone第四季度的出貨量同比將增加4%。
What's driving this newfound enthusiasm for iPhone shipments? Apple's low-cost option, the iPhone XR.
是什麼推動了iPhone的出貨量?蘋果的低價選擇，iPhone XR。
Much greater potential
Kuo believes that Apple will ship between 36 million and 38 million units of the XR, a 10% increase from his previous estimate of 33 million to 35 million units. These higher shipments will be the result of not only strong replacement demand, but also an improved supply, which was expected to ramp up in early October.
更大的潛力
郭明錤認為，蘋果XR的出貨量將在3,600萬至3,800萬部之間，比他此前預計的3,300萬至3,500萬部增加10%。出貨量提高將不僅是因為強勁的換機需求，還因為供應的改善，預計供應量將在10月初增加。
The noted Apple-watcher says the "larger display, longer battery life, dual SIM-support, and new form factor design," will lead to increased demand for the XR, especially in light of its lower cost. With a starting price of $749 for the XR -- compared to a base cost of $999 for the XS -- Kuo is forecasting a more robust product cycle for Apple than occurred with the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus last year.
這位著名的蘋果分析師表示，iPhone XR擁有更大的顯示屏，更長的電池待機時間，雙SIM卡支持以及新設計元素，這將提高XR的需求量，特別尤其是考慮到它的售價低。XR的起價為749美元，而XS的起價為999美元。郭明錤預計，iPhone XR的產品周期將比去年iPhone 8和8 Plus更為強勁。
That isn't all. Kuo is forecasting overall shipments in the first three months of 2019 (Apple's fiscal second quarter) will "beat low seasonality" and grow 10% year over year to a range of 55 million to 60 million devices, driven by increasing demand for the XR. This would represent an increase of between 5% and 15% compared to the 52.2 million iPhones Apple sold during the same period last year.
此外郭明錤預計，2019年前三個月(蘋果第二財季)的總出貨量將「打破低季節性」，將同比增長10%，達到5500萬至6000萬部，主要受不斷增長XR需求的推動。與去年同期的5,220萬部相比，這意味著銷量將增長5%至15%。
For consumers on a budget, the iPhone XR represents a viable alternative to more pricey options and offers a reasonable compromise on features. The device contains a more affordable LCD display compared to the top-of-the-line OLED on the XS, and the XR hasn't been outfitted with Apple's latest dual-camera technology. The device does have the A12 bionic chip, Face ID, and an edge-to-edge screen boasted by more expensive models.
對於預算有限的消費者來說，iPhone XR更具性價比。與XS的頂級OLED屏相比，iPhone XR採用了成本較低的LCD顯示屏，而且XR不配備蘋果最新的雙攝像頭技術。但iPhone XR搭載A12仿生晶片，擁有人臉識別功能和全屏幕。
It's also worth noting that Apple will probably see the average selling price (ASP) grow from the record-setting $796 and $728 Apple achieved in the fiscal first and second quarter of 2018, respectively. With iPhone prices topping out at $1,449 and heavy demand expected for the $749 XR, expect the company to achieve a new high watermark for ASP, as well as new sales records in the quarters to come.
值得注意的是，2018財年第一財季和第二財季的平均售價分別達到創紀錄的796美元和728美元，但該平均售價或將有所提高。隨著iPhone的最高定價達到1449美元，以及對定價749美元XR的巨大需求，預計其平均售價將創造一個新記錄，並且該公司將在未來幾個季度創造新的銷售記錄。
美國雅虎讀者評論：
譯文來源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46352.html 譯者：Jessica.Wu
外文：https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-apos-lower-priced-smartphone-155000200.html
F.2 days ago
Since when is $999 a low priced phone?
從什麼時候開始，999美元成了低價了?
bk2 days ago
None of those are low price or budget phones. Typically I get a new phone every two years. But I may wait for another year or so.
這兩款都不算低價或廉價手機。我一般每兩年換一部新手機，但這次我可能會再等一年左右。
Stephenyesterday
I remember thinking $400 was an obscene amount of money for a phone.
曾幾何時400美元買一部手機都是一筆大開銷。
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Andrew Jyesterday
They're just trying to manufacture a story that will boost the stock price. In reality, the XR will cost $943 in China and will cost over $1000 in over one hundred countries. It's only in the US that the price is at $749 and very few markets outside the US offer these phones on monthly payment plans. The US is a big market for Apple, but only 40 million of the 200 million+ iPhones are actually bought by US consumer. This means that Apple can't just rely on US sales.
他們只是想編個故事來提振股價。實際上，XR在中國的售價為943美元，在100多個國家的售價將超過1000美元。只有在美國，這款手機的起價是749美元，而在美國以外的市場，很少提供分期付款的購機選擇。美國是蘋果的一個大市場，但在2億多部iphone中，只有4000萬部是由美國消費者購買的。這意味著蘋果不能僅僅依靠美國市場。
Vince6 hours ago
Considering that 5G will be the new standard in mobile data...there's little reason to by buy a 4G iPhone. 5G will be a real game changer since it's faster than the Internet in your home.
鑑於5G將成為移動數據的新標準，沒什麼理由再買4G iPhone。5G將真正改變遊戲規則，因為它比你家裡的網際網路還快。
Joe Blow18 hours ago
749 is way overpriced...
749美元也太貴了
p66219 hours ago
This is about price point sensitivity. There was a time when 749 was the top priced phone. Now it is a bargain???? Apple is not selling something they will not make a profit on.
這與價格點的敏感性有關。曾經749美元的定價算是最貴的，現在成了便宜貨了????蘋果不會做無利可圖的賣賣。
Spicyesterday
How crazy does one have to be to consider $ 749.00 for a KRApple iPhone cheap. I will consider buying a KRApple iPhone when it costs 50% less than my $ 30.00 flip phone. I've had it six years, so my cost per year is five bucks and it works fine !!!!!
如果你認為一款售價749美元的手機很便宜，那你就太瘋狂了。如果蘋果的價格比我30美元的翻蓋手機便宜50%，那我會考慮買一臺。這部翻蓋手機我已經用了六年了，所以每年的花費是5美元，而且性能很好!!!!!
Andrew5 hours ago
about to go back to flip phones. This is getting cray
還是去買翻蓋手機吧，這太瘋狂了。
grunt3 hours ago
It's "low-priced" offering is still $50 more than the last bottom-dweller. So it's not cheaper, and nowhere near cheap.
這也算「低價」手機？價格比上一個系列的起價高出50美元。所以它並沒有更便宜，也根本不算便宜。
Periwinkle10 hours ago
If they would put out a basic no frills kind of phone, that would be great.
如果他們能推出一款功能機，那就太好了。
tangible16 hours ago
BUY NO PHONE UNTIL IT SUPPORTS 5G. All the new iPhones will be obsolete in 6 months
除非支持5G，否則不要買。所有新款iphone將在6個月內被淘汰。
kozzy3 hours ago
The discount phone has the same components as the so called top-of-the-line phone...The sheep are sleeping...lol...!!
打折手機的組件和所謂的高端手機一樣，哈哈…!!
Bill15 hours ago
Its lower priced but it is not low priced. Apple is still screwing its customers with the XR price.
價格是降低了，但並不便宜。蘋果公司還在用XR的價格來壓榨顧客。
James1 hour ago
I am not giving them anymore of my money.
我不會再買他們的手機了。
No-Nonsense11 hours ago
The XR will capture lots of Android users!
XR將吸引大量Android用戶!