2019年除夕夜，日本舉行點燈儀式，主題為「賀中國農曆新年，東京塔紅光璀璨」；首相安倍晉三發表新年感言，稱兩國關係進入「新時代」。
On the eve of the 2019 Chinese New Year, Japan held a lighting ceremony of the Tokyo Tower to celebrate the Chinese Lunar New Year. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delivered a New Year speech, noting the Sino-Japanese relations have entered a "new era".
如何看待中日關係的持續改善發展？如何認識兩國在當今國際格局中的積極作用？怎樣通過加強中日兩國合作，為地區和世界的和平與發展做出更大貢獻？這些問題都需要在世界大變局的框架中進行審視和思考。
How should we view the continuous improvement and development of Sino-Japanese relations? How should we understand the two countries' positive roles in the current international landscape? How should the two countries strengthen cooperation to make greater contributions to regional and global peace and development? Those questions are worth reviewing and pondering under the framework of the changing world.
中日關係進入4.0版
China-Japan Relations Version 4.0
在漫長的歷史長河中，伴隨著生產方式、文明形態和世界格局、國際體系的變遷，中日關係出現過四個版本：
Along with changes of production modes, civilizational forms, world landscapes and international systems throughout the history, China-Japan relations have undergone four "versions":
1.0版是近代以前的農業社會，中國以壓倒性的綜合國力和文化優勢，扮演著東亞國際體系中絕對主導者的角色，兩國格局中強日弱。
Version 1.0 refers to the agrarian society before modern times, when China played an absolutely leading role in East Asia's international system with its overwhelming national strength and cultural advantage, and kept a dominant position in its bilateral relations with Japan.
2.0版是進入近代以後的工業社會，日本通過明治維新等一系列改革，在文化上「脫亞入歐」，綜合國力趕超中國，兩國格局轉變為日強中弱。在近一個世紀的時間裡，日本試圖通過建立「大東亞共榮圈」充當亞洲盟主，並對中國發動了侵略戰爭，但這種努力以1945年日本戰敗被納入美國主導的西方陣營告終。
Version 2.0 refers to the industrial society in the early stage of modern times. After a series of reforms, notably the Meiji Restoration, Japan "leaped from Asia to Europe" in terms of culture, and caught up with and even overtook China in national strength, which enabled it to gain advantage in Sino-Japanese ties. In this period of nearly a century, Japan attempted to establish itself the leader of Asia through building the so-called "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere." And launched an aggressive war against China. This attempt eventually failed as Japan was defeated in World War II and was incorporated into the U.S.-led Western Camp in 1945.
3.0版是在二戰後持續發展的工業社會和信息社會。20世紀70年代初，中國是聯合國安理會的常任理事國，日本在經濟規模上成為世界「老二」，中日兩強並立態勢愈發明顯。
Version 3.0 refers to the industrial society and information society that continued to develop after the end of World War II. In the early 1970s, China is a Standing Member of UN Security Council, and Japan turned into the second largest economy in the world. China and Japan emerged as two paralleled powers.
4.0版是在工業社會、信息社會的基礎上進入當今的智能社會後，挑戰和機遇並存，困難與希望同在，中日共同置身大變局。
Version 4.0 refers to the current intelligent society based on the industrial and information society. Facing both challenges and opportunities, difficulties and hopes, China and Japan are also part of the tremendously changing world landscape.
近十年來，經過外部環境的複雜變化和彼此激烈的碰撞磨合，兩國認識到未來的中日要開始邁向相輔相成、和諧共生的新格局。
In the past decade, due to complicated changes of the external environment and intensive mutual collisions and frictions, both countries have realized that in the future they should move towards mutual complementation and harmonious coexistence.
中日新型合作的三個維度
Three Dimensions of New-type China-Japan Cooperation
一是區域發展的維度。作為世界第二、第三大經濟體，中日發展的根基在亞洲，亞洲以及地理上相連的亞歐大陸將為兩國的未來發展提供廣闊空間。
The first dimension is regional development. As the world's second and third largest economies, the development of China and Japan is rooted in Asia. Asia, as well as Eurasia that is geographically connected to Asia, will provide a broad space for the development of both countries in the future.
▲ 亞洲四小龍是指自1960年代末至1990年代期間，西太平洋四個發展迅速的經濟體：韓國、臺灣、香港及新加坡。上圖為新加坡地標，萊佛士廣場摩天大樓。
The Asian tigers are the four fast-growing economies of the western Pacific from the late 1960s to 1990s including South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Picture shows Singapore's landmark Raffles Place Skyscraper Buildings.
自20世紀50年代起，尤其是冷戰結束後，日本、「亞洲四小龍」、中國、東南亞、南亞等區域相繼出現高速增長。亞洲的崛起呈現出長期的結構性而非偶然的周期性特徵。
Starting in the 1950s, especially after the end of the Cold War, Japan, the Four Asian Tigers, China, Southeast Asia, and South Asia all saw rapid growth. The rise of Asia became a long-term structural phenomenon, instead of an occasional, periodical one.
根據聯合國貿易和發展會議的定義，按購買力評價計算，2020年亞洲經濟體規模將自19世紀以來第一次超過世界其他經濟體總和。亞洲擁有全球超過一半的人口和中產階級，全球最大的30個城市有21個在亞洲，世界將進入「亞洲世紀」。考慮到19世紀前亞洲一直主導著世界經濟，可以說世界正在向歷史的常態回歸。
According to the estimation of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), by 2020, the total GDP of Asian economies in terms of PPP will exceed the combined GDP of other economies in the world for the first time since the 19th century. Asia is home to half of the global population and middle-class groups. Of the world's 30 largest cities, 21 are in Asia. The world is embracing an "Asian Century." Considering that Asia had long dominated the world economy before the 19th century, this indicates that the world is resuming its historical normal state.
回歸不是重複。此前的亞洲被山巒、沙漠、海洋、河流等地理要素限制，被侵略和反侵略戰爭、殖民統治、意識形態、陣營同盟等政治要素分割。當今時代，曾經長期分裂的亞洲正在通過「一帶一路」合作，通過公路、港口、機場、電信網絡和其他設施連接起來。
Resumption is not repetition. In the past, Asia was separated by geographical barriers such as mountains, deserts, oceans and rivers, as well as political elements such as wars of aggression and anti-aggression, colonization, ideological divergence, and political alliances. Nowadays, after a long time of separation, Asia has been connected by highways, ports, airports, telecom networks and other facilities under the cooperative framework of the Belt and Road Initiative.
互聯互通範圍的擴大，將使廣博的地理空間轉化為合作紅利，並與人口紅利結合，實現市場開發和投資增長的良性循環。藉助新一輪的全球化和信息化，發展程度低、貧困、恐怖主義等不利因素有望被逐漸克服，整體上長期落後的亞洲將迎來變身為發達亞洲的歷史機遇。而且，亞洲的主體性正日益增強。與以往的歐洲導向、美國導向相比，現在的亞洲更加注重滿足自我需求以及開發創造。
With the expansion of connectivity, the vast geographical space has been transformed into cooperation dividends, which integrate with demographic dividends to achieve a virtuous cycle between market exploration and investment growth. In the new round of globalization and informatization, negative factors such as underdevelopment, poverty and terrorism are expected to be overcome, and Asia, which has generally lagged behind for a long time, will embrace a historic opportunity to become a developed continent. Furthermore, Asia is becoming more and more independent. Unlike previous Europe-oriented and U.S.-oriented trends, today's Asia pays more attention to meeting its own needs and seeking self innovation.
在「世界的亞洲化」與「亞洲的亞洲化」的進程中，中日有望攜手發揮亞洲「領頭羊」作用，通過協調合作，在夯實亞洲互聯互通的社會基礎、共促區域一體化的同時，實現各自國家的進一步完善和提質升級。這種前景，不僅是亞洲之福，更是中日兩國之福。
In the process of "Asianization of the world" and "Asianization of Asia", China and Japan may join hands to play the leading role in Asia and further achieve their own improvement and upgrading while consolidating the social foundation for Asia's connectivity and promoting regional integration through coordination and cooperation. This prospect will benefit not only Asia at large but also China and Japan themselves.
二是科技創新的維度。自18世紀後半段至今，人類社會先後經歷了三次工業革命，現在正在迎來以5G、萬物互聯和人工智慧技術為主導的第四次工業革命。
The second dimension is technological innovation. Since the second half of the 18th century, human society has gone through three industrial revolution. At present, it is embracing the fourth industrial revolution featuring 5G, the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence (AI).
▲ 2018年7月4日，在中國東南部福建省廈門市，人們在阿波羅工廠舉行的大規模生產儀式上慶祝。中國科技巨頭百度宣布，其新開發的無人駕駛巴士將開始大規模生產。【圖片/新華社】
People celebrate at a ceremony marking the mass production of Apolong at its manufacturing facility in Xiamen, southeast China's Fujian Province, July 4, 2018. Chinese tech giant Baidu announced that its newly developed self-driving bus would begin mass production. [Photo/Xinhua]
第四次工業革命是一場全方位的變革，除了傳統的生產、銷售、消費等經濟活動外，還涉及健康、醫療、公共服務等廣泛領域，影響著人類的生活方式和未來。
The fourth industrial revolution is an overall revolution. Apart from traditional economic activities such as production, sales and consumption, it also involves a wide array of sectors including health, medical care and public service, and influences the way of living and the future of mankind.
三是社會治理的維度。目前，中日在該領域的合作主要針對的是經濟社會、科學技術發展造成的負面問題，力爭通過合作促進人類與自然、人類與科技、國與國、人與人之間的協調發展。
The third dimension is social governance. Currently, China-Japan cooperation in this field focuses on negative impacts of economic, social and technological development, and the two sides are working hard to promote balanced development between humans and nature and between humans and technology, as well as balanced development of different countries and different peoples.
在此過程中需要兩國不斷地交流與對話，從共同擁有的亞洲傳統文化中挖掘精神資源，創造性發展轉化，形成適合當今時代的亞洲價值觀。例如，面對貿易保護主義潮流，雙方都主張自由、開放、包容、有序的國際經濟環境，平等、均衡的新型全球發展夥伴關係，這有利於增進人類共同福祉和利益。
In the process, the two countries need to constantly communicate and keep dialogues with each other, explore spiritual resources from their shared Asian traditional culture, and creatively develop and transform them into Asian values that respond to the call of the times. For instance, in the face of trade protectionism, both countries advocate a free, open, inclusive and orderly international economic environment and a new type of equal, balanced global partnership for development, which is conducive to increasing the common benefits and interests of the whole mankind.
此外，作為第四次工業革命的引領國家，中日愈發認識到科技是把雙刃劍，在發展智能科技的同時，未來需要跨越國界在世界範圍內廣泛合作，未雨綢繆地防範智能技術對人類社會發展可能帶來的破壞性效應。
In addition, as leaders in the fourth industrial revolution, China and Japan have realized that technology is a "double-edged sword". As we develop intelligent technology, countries around the world must carry out extensive cooperation to prevent intelligent technology from bringing destructive consequences to the development of human society.
從這些大勢來看，中日有一千條理由加強合作，而沒有一條理由走向反面。在新時代，我們期待著中日走向雙贏、共贏、多贏的良性合作發展之路。
Based on those general trends, China and Japan have a thousand reasons to strengthen cooperation, and not one reason to confront each other. In this new era, we hope the two countries will walk on a path of virtuous cooperation and development that is win-win, mutual beneficial and multi-win.
作者 / 金瑩
Author / Jin Ying
中國社科院日本所研究員
Research fellow at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
圖片 / 網絡
美編 / 高銘
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