《安全研究》收錄出版創新性的學術稿件——無論是理論研究、實踐經驗分享還是兩者兼而有之。安全研究包含廣泛的議題，從核擴散、核威懾、軍民關係、戰略文化、種族衝突、流行病與國家安全、民主政治、外交決策到定性與多方法研究的發展。根據2018年的Journal Citation Reports顯示，其2018年的影響因子為1.706，在91種國際關係類期刊中排名第30（30/91）。
【編譯】李博軒、王國欣、姚寰宇
【審校】馮毓婧、劉金晶、徐琛
【排版】高佳美
1.石油交易：大國、產油國、和石油聯盟
A Crude Bargain: Great Powers, Oil States, and Petro-Alignment
2.不談是否，但問何時？戰爭中政府對民兵的使用
Not Whether, But When? Governments』 Use of Militias in War
3. 網絡式合作：歐盟如何動員維和部隊向海外部署力量？
Networked Cooperation: How the European Union Mobilizes Peacekeeping Forces to Project Power Abroad
4. 忠誠度的平衡：解釋尼加拉瓜革命中的叛亂組織派系鬥爭
Balance of Loyalties: Explaining Rebel Factional Struggles in the Nicaraguan Revolution
5. 俄羅斯東正教與核指揮及控制：一個假設
Russian Orthodox Church and Nuclear Command and Control: A Hypothesis
6. 再論瘋子理論：對強制性交涉中不同形式可感知瘋狂影響的評估
Revisiting the Madman Theory: Evaluating the Impact of Different Forms of Perceived Madness in Coercive Bargaining
【題目】A Crude Bargain: Great Powers, Oil States, and Petro-Alignment
【作者】Inwook Kim，新加坡管理大學政治學副教授。
【摘要】石油聯盟，指大國提供安全以換取產油國石油優惠政策的一種交易安排，是一種雖然被廣泛使用但尚未被理論化的能源安全戰略。這種交易的一個層面是大國選擇不同層次的安全承諾來獲得產油國的政策優惠。大國根據什麼標準來對產油國的重要程度進行排序呢？我們如何對不同類型的石油聯盟進行概念化？在不同的石油聯盟類型下大國和產油國各自到底想要交易什麼？本文認為市場權力和地緣戰略位置共同決定了產油國戰略價值和脆弱性，進而產生四種對應的石油聯盟類型——安全保障型、戰略聯盟型、戰略優勢型和戰略忽視型。為了展示大國如何基於石油市場和不同地緣戰略地位的獨到邏輯來建立、利用以及維持石油聯盟，本文精心挑選兩個案例進行對比：1970-1991年的沙特和科威特、1990-2013年的亞塞拜然和厄瓜多。本文的發現對大國的大戰略、產油國的戰略行為和石油在國際安全中的角色三個方面具有重要的指導意義。
Petro-alignment, a quid pro quo arrangement whereby great powers offer security in exchange for oil states』 friendly oil policies, is a widely used and yet under theorized energy security strategy. One consequential aspect of this exchange is that great powers choose different levels of security commitment to keep oil producers friendly. With what criteria do great powers rank oil states? How dowe conceptualize different types of petro-alignments? What exactly do greatpowers and oil producers exchange under each petro-alignment type? I posit thata mix of market power and geostrategic location determines the strategic valueand vulnerability of individual client oil states, which then generates four corresponding types of petro-alignment-security guarantee, strategic alignment, strategic favor, and neglect. Two carefully selected case comparisons—Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in 1970–91, and Azerbaijan and Ecuador in 1990–2013—show howgreat powers created, utilized, and maintained petro-alignments under theunique logic of oil markets and across varying geopolitical settings. Thefindings have important implications on great powers』 grand strategies, strategic behaviors of oil states, and the role of oil in international security.
【編譯】王國欣
【校對】馮毓婧、姚寰宇
【題目】Not Whether, But When? Governments』 Use of Militias in War
【作者】Caitlin Ambrozik，喬治·華盛頓大學艾略特國際事務學院兼職教授。
【摘要】儘管政府在國內衝突中使用民兵的行為會最終削弱政府權威，但政府仍會將民兵作為戰場上的一種支援力量。本文通過將國內衝突分為不同的衝突階段來探索政府使用民兵的政策選擇。國內衝突中的軍事行動一般由4個階段構成：備戰階段、目標區域清洗階段、目標區維持和控制階段、目標區建設階段。本文認為政府關於動用民兵的決策取決於政府軍的實力、民兵在軍事行動上的優勢、以及不同鬥爭階段的類型。在媒體關注度可能增加的關鍵鬥爭階段，政府會限制民兵的使用，除非政府軍不能贏得勝利或在此階段民兵具有軍事行動上的優勢。在伊拉克對ISIS的戰爭中，政府在提克裡特和拉馬迪所採取的進攻性軍事行動為本文提出的理論提供初步的佐證。
Although government use of militias during civil conflict can ultimately undermine stateauthority, governments still use militias for battle field assistance. This paper examines the selectivity of government decisions to use militias by disaggregating civil conflict to the level of battle phases. Civil-conflict battles typically consist of four phases: preparation, clear, hold, and build. I argue that governments decide to use militias based on the strength of government security forces, operational advantages of militias, and the type of battlephase. Governments will limit the use of militias during key battle phases thatare likely to receive increased media attention unless a victory secured by government security forces is unlikely or militias hold an operational advantage. A comparative analysis of the offensive operations in Tikrit and Ramadi during Iraq’s war against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) lends initial support to this theory.
【編譯】王國欣
【校對】馮毓婧、姚寰宇
【題目】Networked Cooperation: How the EuropeanUnion Mobilizes Peacekeeping Forces to Project Power Abroad
【作者】Marina E. Henke, 德國赫爾蒂行政學院和美國西北大學國際關係教授，研究重點為軍事幹預，維和行動以及歐洲安全與防衛政策。
【摘要】歐盟如何招募在歐盟維和特派團中服務的部隊和警察？本文認為，關鍵的歐盟成員國和歐盟官員戰略性地利用其所處的社會和制度網絡，嵌入其中並勸說不情願的成員國提供這些力量。這些網絡提供有關部署偏好的信息，促進旁支付和問題關聯，並提供可靠的承諾。因此，正如現有文獻中經常提到的，歐盟的運作不一定依賴於歐盟內部的偏好趨同。相反，歐盟維和部隊的招募依賴歐盟內高度積極主動的行為體，而它們利用社會和制度聯繫來說服其他國家加入歐盟維和特派團。
How does the European Union (EU) recruit troops and police to serve in EU peacekeeping missions? This article suggests that pivotal EU member states and EU officials make strategic use of the socialand institutional networks within which they are embedded to bargain reluctant states into providing these forces. These networks offer information on deployment preferences, facilitate side-payments and issue-linkages, and provide for credible commitments. EU operations are consequently not necessarily dependent on intra-EU preference convergence—as is often suggested in the existing literature. Rather, EU force recruitment hinges on highly proactive EU actors, which use social and institutional ties to negotiate fellow states into serving in an EU missions.
【編譯】李博軒
【校對】劉金晶、徐琛
忠誠度的平衡：解釋尼加拉瓜革命中的叛亂組織派系鬥爭
【題目】Balance of Loyalties: Explaining RebelFactional Struggles in the Nicaraguan Revolution
【作者】Eric S. Mosinger, 加拿大卡爾頓大學小羅伯特·奧登(Robert A. Oden Jr.)博士後研究員。
【摘要】如何解釋叛亂組織派系鬥爭的原因和結果？現有的解釋集中在外部因素和物質因素對叛亂組織內部的破壞。然而，即使在沒有外部衝擊的情況下，叛亂組織也會受困於內鬥和組織分裂。本文提出了叛亂組織派系鬥爭的內生性和社會性理論，其中領導權糾紛是由叛亂組織內部忠誠度平衡的變化引起的。在本文的模型中，敵對的叛亂組織領導人通過兩種網絡培養忠誠度，即招募網絡和運營網絡，它們是發起領導權爭奪，發動政變或分裂組織的動力基礎。本文的理論基於對尼加拉瓜的桑地諾民族解放陣線（FSLN）的案例研究，而該組織在1975-1976年間分裂為三個派系。利用有關FSLN指揮官的原始網絡數據集，本文追蹤了該組織的網絡結構隨時間的變化情況，並認為圍繞普通武裝人員忠誠的爭奪是FSLN分裂原因所在。
What explains the causes and outcomes ofrebel factional struggles? Existing explanations focus on exogenous andmaterial factors that disrupt rebel organizations』 internalprocesses. Yet rebel groups succumb to infighting and organizational splinterseven in the absence of external shocks. In this article I present an endogenousand social theory of rebel factional struggles, in which leadership disputesresult from a shifting balance of loyalties within a rebel organization. In mymodel, rival rebel leaders cultivate the loyalty of two types of networks,recruitment networks and operational networks, which serve as power bases toinitiate leadership struggles, launch coups, or split organizations. I build mytheory through a case study of Nicaragua’s Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN), which splintered into three factions in 1975–76. Drawing on an original network dataset of FSLN commanders, Itrace how the organization’s network structure changed over time, spurringdisputes over rank-and-file fighters』loyaltiesthat tore the FSLN apart.
【編譯】李博軒
【校對】劉金晶、徐琛
【題目】Russian Orthodox Church and Nuclear Command and Control: A Hypothesis
【作者】Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky，以色列赫茲利亞跨學科研究中心（IDC Herzliya）副教授。
【摘要】俄羅斯東正教在俄羅斯當前的國家安全政策中扮演了重要角色。教會和戰略群體的交織在核武器綜合設施中體現最為明顯——神職人員已經滲透到各級部隊並參與作戰活動，並視自己為國家核潛力意義的提供者和核潛力的守護者。本文首先強調了俄羅斯教會與核之間的關係，並重點討論了教會對俄羅斯核指揮與控制的影響。研究結果表明，俄羅斯的軍事神職人員（與蘇聯的政客一樣但不同於其他國家的神職人員）可能會成為俄羅斯未來國家安全決策的參與者；事實上，俄羅斯可能出現兩條平行的指揮權力系統且二者之間可能會存在緊張關係。本文介紹了這一獨特現象被忽視的原因及其對國際安全理論和實踐的影響。
The Russian Orthodox Church plays an immense role in current Russian national security policy. The intertwining ofthe church and the strategic community is nowhere more visible than in the nuclear-weapons complex, where the priesthood has penetrated all levels of command, been involved in operational activities, and positioned itself as a provider of meanings for, and guardian of, the state’s nuclear potential. The first work to highlight the phenomenon of the Russian church-nuclear nexus, this article focuses on the ecclesiastical impact on Russian nuclear command and control. The findings suggest that it is not inconceivable that the Russian military clergy—like the Soviet political officers and contrary to chaplains worldwide—might become future participants in decision making on matters of national security, and that de facto there might be two parallel chains of command authority emerging in Russia, with potential tensions between them. The article outlines the causes of this overlooked singularity and its implications for the theory and practice of international security.
【編譯】姚寰宇
【校對】劉金晶、徐琛
再論瘋子理論：對強制性交涉中不同形式可感知瘋狂影響的評估
【題目】Revisiting the Madman Theory: Evaluating the Impact of Different Forms ofPerceived Madness in Coercive Bargaining
【作者】Roseanne W. McManus，賓夕法尼亞州立大學政治科學與國際事務系副教授。
【摘要】本文重新審視了「瘋子理論」背後的理論邏輯——該觀點認為在強制性交涉中，被視為瘋狂的人能獲得一定的優勢。作者建立了一個理論，用一種與分析強制性交涉相關的方式將可被感知的瘋狂進行定義。作者區分了四種可感知的瘋狂並從兩個維度對他們進行分解。第一個維度是領導人是否被感知到（a）進行理性計算但傾向於選擇極端結果，還是（b）在實際上已經偏離了選擇進行基於理性結果的決策。第二個維度是領導人的瘋狂是否被感知到是（a）受環境影響的，還是（b）受其個人性情影響的。作者認為最有利於進行強制性交涉的瘋狂類型是受環境影響的極端偏好選擇。作者以阿道夫·希特勒、尼基塔·赫魯雪夫、薩達姆·海珊和穆阿邁爾·卡扎菲四個案例對其進行了研究和闡述。
This article reconsiders the theoretical logic behind the 「Madman Theory」—the argument that it can be beneficial in coercive bargaining to be viewed as mad, or insane. I theorize about how we can best define perceived madness in a way that is relevant for analyzing coercive bargaining. I identify four types of perceived madness, broken down along two dimensions. The first dimension is whether a leader is perceived to (a) make rational calculations, but based on extreme preferences, or (b) actually deviate from rational consequence-based decision making. The second dimension is whether a leader’s madness is perceived to be (a) situational or (b) dispositional. I argue that situational extreme preferences constitute the type of perceived madness that is most helpful in coercive bargaining. I illustrate my argument using case studies of Adolf Hitler, Nikita Khrushchev, Saddam Hussein, and Muammar Gaddafi.
【編譯】姚寰宇
【校對】劉金晶、徐琛
【重磅預告】國政學人推出頂級期刊學術動態速遞！
【新刊速遞】第01期 | Review of International Studies Vol.45, No.4, 2019
【新刊速遞】第02期 | International Relations Vol.33, No.3, 2019
【新刊速遞】第03期 | International Organization Vol.73, No.3, 2019
【新刊速遞】第04期 | World Politics, Vol.71, No.4, 2019
【新刊速遞】第05期 | European Journal of International Relations
【新刊速遞】第06期 | Security Studies, Vol.28, No.4, 2019
【新刊速遞】第07期|International Security, Vol 44, No. 2, 2019
【新刊速遞】第08期| Cambridge Review of International Affairs,Vol.32,No.4
【新刊速遞】第09期| International Relations of Asia-Pacific Vol.19,No.3
【新刊速遞】第14期|Chinese Journal of International Politics, No.3, 2019
【新刊速遞】 第15期 | International Organization, No.4, 2019
【新刊速遞】第16期 | International Studies Quarterly, No.4, 2019