中國石化新聞網訊 據彭博社12月15日報導，歐佩克主席重申，歐佩克在明年初不應急於增產。並表示，由於新冠肺炎疫情在世界不少地區肆虐，能源需求仍然脆弱。
歐佩克輪值主席、阿爾及利亞能源部長阿塔爾(Abdelmajid Attar)表示，無法保證歐佩克及其盟友在4月前將原油產量提高200萬桶/天，即便已於12月初達成了「逐步」達到這一水平的協議。
隨著各國政府宣布將推出疫苗，布倫特原油價格自11月初以來已飆升逾33%，至每桶50美元左右。但今年以來，仍下跌了24%。隨著美國和歐洲部分地區加緊封鎖，歐佩克於周一將2021年第一季度全球燃料消耗量的預期下調了100萬桶/天。
阿塔爾在接受採訪時表示:「儘管出現了積極的跡象，油價也有顯著改善，但我認為我們應該保持非常謹慎的態度。在最好的情況下，最早將在4月份將產量提高200萬桶/天，但值得一提的是，這個增產幅度本身並不是一個目標，重要的是確保全球石油庫存繼續減少，確保我們正走在市場持續穩定的道路上。」
歐佩克及俄羅斯等產油國決定從明年1月起每天向原油市場增加50萬桶原油的供應，然後每月舉行會議，討論之後一個月的具體產量協議，這低於該組織4月份同意的每天200萬桶的增產幅度。當時，在疫情最嚴重的時候，為了支撐油價，歐佩克+將石油日產量削減了約1000萬桶。
歐佩克+產油國的能源部長們將在2021年1月4日舉行下一次線上會議，這次會議或將面臨很緊迫的問題，因為一些成員國熱衷於增加生產，以提振陷入困境的經濟沙烏地阿拉伯在12月的會議上與阿聯發生了衝突，原因是阿聯抱怨其供應配額過低。自4月份協議達成以來，伊拉克、奈及利亞和安哥拉等其他成員國已多次突破產量上限。
不過阿塔爾表示，歐佩克+產油國們對2021年前的供應政策是統一的。他表示:「我認為，我們今年經歷的危機加強了我們的合作。我相信，我們已經建立了一個可持續的長期合作框架。」他讚揚了俄羅斯的減產控制，儘管莫斯科方面沒有完全達到減產配額目標。
他指出:「我們對非歐佩克國家的總體貢獻非常滿意，特別是俄羅斯。自2020年5月以來，其合規率在95%至98%之間波動。這是一個非常令人滿意的數字。預計能源需求將在2021年下半年上升。隨著對各經濟體的新財政支持政策到位，疫苗的快速和廣泛應用前景看好，這對石油市場來說是一個好兆頭。」
此外，阿爾及利亞將2021年的預算建立在45美元/桶的油價基礎上，其國有石油和天然氣公司Sonatrach預計中期油價在每桶40美元至50美元之間。
王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社
原文如下：
OPEC's president says oil cartel cannot rush output increases
The president of OPEC reiterated that the oil producers』 cartel shouldn’t rush to increase output early next year and said energy demand was still fragile with the coronavirus raging across parts of the world.
Algeria’s Energy Minister Abdelmajid Attar, who holds OPEC’s rotating presidency, said there was no guarantee the group and its allies would raise crude production by 2 million barrels a day by April, even after an agreement earlier this month to reach that level in steps.
Brent crude has soared more than 33 per cent since the start of November to around US$50 a barrel as governments announced the roll-out of vaccines. Yet it’s still down 24 per cent this year. And with cases surging in the U.S. and parts of Europe tightening lockdowns, OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global fuel consumption in the first quarter of 2021 by 1 million barrels a day.
「Despite the positive signs and a significant improvement in oil prices, I think we should be very cautious,」 Attar said in an interview. 「In the best-case scenario, we will be able to reach 2 million barrels daily as early as April. But this is not a goal in itself. What is important is to ensure that the global oil inventory surplus continues to erode, and that we are on the path to lasting market stabilization.」
OPEC+, an alliance between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and others such as Russia, decided to add 500,000 barrels a day to crude markets starting in January and then hold monthly meetings on subsequent moves. That was less than the increase of 2 million barrels the group had agreed to in April. Back then, at the height of the pandemic, it slashed output by around 10 million barrels daily to prop up prices.
The group’s energy ministers have their next virtual gathering on Jan. 4. It could be another tense affair, with some members keen to increase production to boost their struggling economies. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, clashed with the United Arab Emirates at this month’s meeting after the latter complained its quota was too low. Other members such as Iraq, Nigeria and Angola have breached their output caps on various occasions since the April deal was struck.
Still, Attar said OPEC+ was unified heading into 2021.
「The crisis we have experienced this year has, in my opinion, strengthened cooperation,」 he said. 「I believe that we have built a sustainable and long-term framework for cooperation.」
He commended Russia for the extent of its production curbs, despite Moscow not fully reaching its targets.
「We are very satisfied with the overall contribution of the non-OPEC countries, especially Russia,」 he said. 「Its compliance rate has varied between 95 per cent and 98 per cent since May 2020. This is a highly satisfactory figure.」
Attar expects energy demand to rise in the second half of 2021.
「The new financial support for the economies that are being put in place, and the prospects for a rapid and broad deployment of vaccines, bode well」 for the oil market, he said.
Algeria has based its 2021 budget on an oil price of US$45 a barrel, with state oil and gas firm Sonatrach forecasting somewhere between US$40 and US$50 in the medium term, Attar said.