微軟多年來都做不好消費端的軟體和服務。收購TikTok，微軟圖什麼？
By Tom Warren
At first glance, a Microsoft acquisition of TikTok seems a little unusual. Microsoft has spent years walking back consumer plays like the Groove Music service, the Kinect Xbox accessory, its Microsoft Band fitness device, Windows Phone, and more recently the Mixer streaming service. Microsoft has been favoring its enterprise software and services, and even Cortana has transitioned to be productivity-focused. How does a service that caters to dancing teenagers fit with Microsoft’s buttoned-up business demographic?
乍看之下，微軟對於TikTok的收購案有一些不同尋常。微軟已經花費了數年的時間從自身的消費端業務中撤退，比如Groove音樂服務，Kinect Xbox的體感外設周邊，Microsoft Band健身設備，Windows手機，還有最近的Mixer流遊戲直播平臺。同時期內，微軟更加專注於自己的企業端軟體和服務，甚至於連Cortana（微軟小娜，微軟第一款個人智能助理）也把重心放在了辦公功能上。
Tiktok這樣一個以跳舞青年為服務對象的app如何能和微軟近年來所服務的沉穩莊重的商業人士融合在一起呢？
If you dig a little deeper into Microsoft’s future ambitions, though, a move to acquire TikTok’s operations in the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand could benefit many of Microsoft’s existing businesses while also setting the company up as a real competitor to YouTube and Facebook.
但是，如果你對微軟未來的野心挖掘得更深入一點，就能發現，收購TikTok的美國，加拿大，澳大利亞和紐西蘭業務能夠為微軟現有的業務帶來諸多利益，並且能幫助它成為YouTube和Facebook的真正對手。
01
DATA, DATA, AND MORE DATA
數據，數據，還是數據
The key part of any TikTok deal will be the data and users Microsoft gains access to. This is the driving force behind concerns from the Trump administration over TikTok’s potential ties to the Chinese government and how that data might be misused. Microsoft acknowledges the data’s importance in its blog post confirming acquisition talks, noting that 「Microsoft would ensure that all private data of TikTok’s American users is transferred to and remains in the United States.」
關於TikTok的交易，其最關鍵的部分就是它的數據，以及微軟能夠通過它所觸及的用戶群體。這也是川普政府擔心TikTok與中國政府的關係和它的數據可能會被濫用的原因。微軟在自己發布的確認收購事宜的博客中，承認了數據的重要性，並且強調「微軟會確保所有TikTok美國用戶的私人數據都會轉移至並且儲存在美國。」
This data could be used by Microsoft in a variety of ways. The software giant has long used Xbox Live to fuel parts of Microsoft Research for future software and hardware projects, and the usage data helps game developers and Microsoft better understand how people use their Xbox. Understanding how people interacted with and used the Kinect accessory for the Xbox ultimately helped Microsoft develop and improve HoloLens, too.
微軟有多種運用這些數據的方式。這家軟體業界的巨人從很早之前開始就把Xbox Live的數據用於未來的軟體和硬體項目的研發，這些數據的使用可以幫助遊戲開發者和微軟更好地了解人們如何使用Xbox。對Xbox 的外部體感設備Kinect的用戶使用習慣的了解，最終幫助微軟研發並改進了HoloLens（一種微軟研發的混合現實頭戴式顯示器）。
TikTok could help correct a Microsoft blindspot and even influence how other software and services are developed inside the company. Microsoft has all the data it needs on business usage of software, but it hasn’t been successful with pure consumer services in recent years, which has left the company with a gap of insight into consumer behaviors.
TikTok可以幫助微軟補足自身的盲點，甚至還可以影響公司內部其他軟體與服務的開發過程。微軟有它所需要的所有商業軟體的使用數據，但它在近年來，微軟在純消費者端的服務卻並不成功，這也使得這家公司在消費者行為的認知方面有了短板。
That’s particularly relevant when you consider that a large number of young Americans are growing up in an environment dominated by Android, iOS, and Chromebooks in classrooms. With Gmail also dominating consumer email usage and document sharing through Google Docs, it’s possible to grow up in the US without needing any Microsoft software or services. Microsoft missed the mobile revolution and has been playing catch-up ever since, but it doesn’t want to miss an entire generation of future workers.
現在的情況尤為特殊：大量的美國年輕人們都是在被安卓, iOS和Chromebooks所主導的教室裡成長起來的，那麼收購TikTok對於微軟來說就更關乎切身利益了。Gmail主宰了美國的消費者電郵市場，在文件分享領域佔主導地位的也是來自谷歌的Google Docs，因此如今美國的新一代很有可能不需要依賴任何來自微軟的軟體和服務就能順利成長。微軟遺失了移動端革命的機會，在此之後就一直都扮演著追趕的角色，但它不想錯失一整個代際的未來社會的頂梁柱們。
TikTok gives Microsoft a direct line to millions of youngsters using the app to watch videos and even those who use it to create content. Microsoft has tried desperately to adapt its Windows operating system to be more consumer-friendly with video creation apps, but TikTok offers an easy way for millions to create videos from their phones instead.
TikTok給微軟一個直接抵達數百萬使用此款app的青年人的 途徑，甚至還能觸及那些使用這款app來創作內容的年輕人們。微軟曾經瘋狂地想要將自家的Windows作業系統改造得更適合視頻創作app的使用，但TikTok現在就給數百萬人提供了一條使用自己的手機來創作內容的便利途徑。
Microsoft could take advantage of that direct access to TikTok users with ads for Surface, Xbox, and other products, or even as another base for its game-streaming ambitions. Google is planning to leverage YouTube to integrate its Stadia streaming service, and TikTok would give Microsoft a response with xCloud game streaming. Microsoft had been planning to use Mixer for Xbox game streaming, but the service never gained enough traction, and the company was forced to strike a deal with Facebook for xCloud integration instead. It’s not hard to imagine watching a Call of Duty video on TikTok and then being able to click and instantly play the game as it streams to your phone via Microsoft’s xCloud service.
微軟可以運用收購TikTok所得的用戶的優勢來為Surface, Xbox和其他產品打廣告，或者把它當作支撐其遊戲流媒體野心的另一個根據地。谷歌正在計劃升級YouTube以包含它的Stadia串流遊戲，而TikTok可以幫助微軟藉由xCloud雲遊戲予以還擊。微軟一直以來都計劃為Xbox的流遊戲使用自家的互動流媒體直播平臺Mixer，但是這項服務卻從來沒有獲得足夠的用戶數，微軟也因此而不得不與Facebook為了xCloud的完整性而進行合作。而現在，微軟已經可以設想讓用戶在TikTok上觀看使命召喚的視頻，然後點擊視頻並將遊戲通過微軟的xCloud服務流導入手機，從而立即在手機上開始遊戲。
Microsoft also has broad ambitions for artificial intelligence that go beyond just the workplace. While its initial foray into AI-powered chatbots for consumers didn’t go to plan, Microsoft does need a consumer testing ground for its AI work that goes beyond Office. TikTok already utilizes AI for facial recognition with the app’s popular filters and in the recommendation engine that drives the For You feed. TikTok’s AI feed dictates exactly what you see in the app, and the algorithm improves the more people use TikTok.
微軟在人工智慧領域同樣有著超越辦公場景的野心。微軟最初的一款為消費者設計的AI聊天機械人項目發展並沒有達到預期，它的AI 工作的確需要一個超越辦公場景的，消費端的試驗場地。TikTok已經在自身流行的濾鏡內和專屬推送的推薦引擎中使用了人臉識別的AI技術。TikTok的AI推送掌控著你在app內看到的一切，而它背後的算法又促使更多的人來使用TikTok。
TikTok has also been venturing into augmented reality, with both filters and ads that utilize AR. Microsoft’s AR ambitions have been largely limited to its HoloLens hardware, Windows Mixed Reality headsets, and some experiments on mobile with Minecraft. TikTok would be another gateway into the mobile world of AR for Microsoft.
TikTok同時在增強現實領域進行了冒險，它的濾鏡和廣告都使用了AR（增強現實技術）。微軟的AR雄心卻被禁錮在了HoloLens這一硬體設備、Windows Mixed Reality耳機和其他一些在手機端的《我的世界》的實驗之上。TikTok會成為微軟進入AR的移動端世界的另一個入口。
02
A COMPLICATED ACQUISITION
複雜的收購
Microsoft doesn’t offer any clues as to how its acquisition could directly affect TikTok features, apart from noting it 「would build on the experience TikTok users currently love.」 Exactly how Microsoft could operate TikTok in the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand is unclear. This leaves large swathes of the world, particularly across Asia and Europe, with a version of TikTok that will potentially have different features to Microsoft’s version.
除了提到「將會在TikTok用戶們現在熱愛的使用體驗上進行改進「以外 ，微軟並沒有就此次收購會給TikTok的功能帶來哪些直接性的影響給出線索。微軟具體將在美國，加拿大，澳大利亞和紐西蘭如何運作TikTok仍是未知數。這就帶來了一種猜測，即全球，尤其是亞洲與歐洲地區的人們使用的TikTok的版本的功能，將有別於微軟版本的TikTok的功能。
How Microsoft operates TikTok in the US and beyond will be key to its future success if the company is able to acquire operational control. One of Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s first big acquisitions was Minecraft maker Mojang. It has been a huge success, particularly as Minecraft has continued to grow and Microsoft has largely left the Mojang studio to continue to develop the game independently.
如果能掌握運營控制權，微軟如何在美國和以外的地區運營將是其能否成功的關鍵。微軟CEO薩蒂亞·納德拉的第一次大型併購就是收購《我的世界》的開發商Mojang。微軟在《我的世界》之後的成長過程中保留了Mojang工作室自主開發的權利，使他們能繼續獨立設計這款遊戲，這也是這次收購取得巨大成功的主要原因。
Equally, Nadella’s acquisition of LinkedIn for $26.2 billion has also been a success story for Microsoft. The company has been operating LinkedIn separately, with some clever integration points with Office where it makes sense. Microsoft has access to a giant enterprise social network to fend off competition from Google and Facebook in the workplace, and the company continues to dominate with Office as a result.
納德拉對於LinkedIn的262億美元的收購案也同樣是一次微軟商業史上成功的收購案例。這家公司一直獨立運營著LinkedIn，而在一些有意義的地方又聰明地與Office產生了聯動。微軟藉此與一家社交網絡巨頭有了連接，因此可以在工作場景中抵禦來自谷歌和Facebook的競爭，結果就是這家公司一直得以繼續用Office主導整個辦公市場。
Even GitHub appears to be a successful acquisition for Microsoft. The software maker has also been operating this business separately, but again, it’s a key point of data for Microsoft to understand how developers are responding to the world’s app needs.
甚至GitHub對於微軟來說，也算得上是一次成功的收購案例。這家軟體製造商也一直獨立於微軟之外運營，但是同樣的，微軟得到了關鍵的數據，了解到了軟體開發人員如何回應app世界的需求。
If Microsoft’s TikTok deal is successful, then it’s likely the company will also be run separately. Microsoft’s messy acquisitions of Skype and Nokia’s phone business have been lessons in how not to aggressively integrate businesses. Microsoft is also new to the world of content moderation and the associated headaches that brings, so it’s unlikely Microsoft will attempt to deeply integrate TikTok or re-brand it in any way. Acquiring TikTok in English-speaking countries also helps avoid some of the moderation complexity faced by Facebook and Twitter. Oddly, Microsoft doesn’t list TikTok’s UK operation as a target for acquisition. (The UK, US, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada are also intelligence sharing partners under the Five Eyes alliance.)
如果微軟成功收購TikTok，這家公司也極有可能將繼續獨立運作。微軟對Skype和諾基亞的電話業務的失敗收購案，其得到的教訓都是不要激進地整合業務。對於內容審核的世界來說，微軟也同樣是新人，更不熟悉由此而來的許多令人頭疼的問題，因此微軟不太可能會深度整合TikTok或者將其以任意形式進行品牌再造。在英語國家收購TikTok同時還能幫助微軟規避一些Facebook 和Twitter所面臨的內容審核方面的複雜問題。奇怪的是，微軟並沒有將英國的TikTok列入收購清單之中。（英國，美國，紐西蘭，澳大利亞和加拿大都是多國監聽組織「五眼聯盟」的成員國）
Running TikTok separately could allow Microsoft to leverage its all-important data and integration points but also position TikTok as the YouTube and Facebook rival Microsoft has always wanted. Microsoft teamed up with News Corporation and NBC Universal back in 2006 to launch its Soapbox on MSN Video service. It failed to compete with YouTube and was shut down a few years later, leaving Microsoft to adopt YouTube as the primary way it shares its own videos.
獨立運營TikTok可以使得微軟有能力提升對它來說至關重要的數據實力和整合能力，同時將TikTok放置在YouTube 和Facebook的對手的位置之上，而這也是微軟一直所渴求的。微軟在2006年的時候與新聞集團和NBC Universal聯合，在MSN 視頻服務上發布了Soapbox。但是其在與YouTube的競爭過程中敗下陣來，幾年後就關閉了，這使得微軟只有採取YouTube作為分享自家視頻的首要選擇。
Microsoft also experimented with its own social network, Socl, back in 2012 before shutting down the service five years later. Microsoft always understood the potential for Facebook’s growth, after initially investing $240 million in Facebook back in 2007. TikTok is rapidly turning into the next big consumer social media space, acting as a direct competitor to Snapchat, Instagram, and Facebook, both in terms of scale and the features involved in sharing and commenting on videos.
微軟還在2012年實驗了自己的社交網絡平臺：Socl，五年後又將其關閉。微軟一直以來都知道Facebook的成長潛力，早在2007年就為Facebook投資了2.4億美元。TikTok現在正飛速地成長成為下一個巨型社交媒體空間，並且在規模與分享，評論視頻等功能方面都成為了Snapchat, Instagram和Facebook的最直接的競爭對手。
It’s difficult to say exactly how Microsoft’s potential TikTok takeover will progress. It’s an unusual deal for the company, particularly with the US government’s ongoing threats. Microsoft doesn’t typically confirm it’s in acquisition talks before deals are made, and the company’s odd blog post specifically thanks President Trump for his personal involvement. The Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft’s blog post may have been prompted specifically by allies of the president pressuring the company to acknowledge the deal publicly.
很難說微軟針對TikTok的收購案最終會如何進行。這對於這家公司來說，這是一次不尋常的交易，尤其是在美國政府持續的威脅之下。通常情況下微軟一般不會在收購案完成之前就做出承認，而這家公司的奇特的博客發言還特別感謝了川普總統個人的參與。華爾街時報報導說，微軟在博客上承認收購很可能是受到了來自總統一方的壓力。
It’s a complex deal, and Microsoft is trapped in it. Owning the network could benefit the company, but if it happens, it would also benefit President Trump, who could claim to have unwound one of China’s stickiest footholds in the US tech ecosystem. And he wouldn’t be shy about highlighting his involvement.
這是一次極為複雜的交易，而微軟已經深陷其中。擁有這家公司可以使微軟受益，但如果收購完成了川普總統也會受益，他可以宣稱自己成功地打掉了中國在美國科技生態體系內最有力的立足點之一。而他本人一定不會就自己在這樁收購案中的參與而表示出謙虛態度。
There will likely be more twists and turns in the TikTok talks in the coming weeks, but now that Microsoft has committed to finishing these discussions no later than September 15th, the clock is TikTok-ing.
TikTok的談判在即將到來的數周內應該還會經歷更多迂迴曲折，但就目前而言，微軟已經承諾將於9月15日之前完成這些交涉，餘下的時間已經不多了。
原載：2020年8月3日 The Verge； 翻譯：楊賽