原創 高建國 集智俱樂部
Illustration credit: Science Photo Library
導語
若干年後，如今把人類社會攪得天翻地覆的新冠大流行捲土重來是怎樣的一副景象……想必那時的科技更為發達，抵抗病毒的能力得到了很大的提升，又可能遭遇哪些惱人難題？作者高建國以此為背景寫了一篇頗有深意的科幻小說，我們從中可以看到某些「似曾相識」的細節，或許也會有所感悟。
原文題目：
COVID-69 | Science Ficti
原文地址：
https://socialsciences.nature.com/posts/covid-69-science-fiction
2069年9月6號，高喬致 (George Gao) 教授正在他的生物學實驗室焦急地等待他孫女高梅爾 (May Gao) 的基因組測序結果，現在是新冠病毒全球大流行的高峰期，教授十分急切地知道May的基因組是否含有新型冠狀病毒 (2069-nCoV) 的易感基因。
「滴，滴，滴」三聲之後，高教授迅速衝向電腦前，查看May的測序結果，「4號染色體，陰性。」「9號染色體，陰性。」「18號染色體，陰性。」「太好了，沒有易感基因NGWs，May不具有易感2069-nCoV的基因或體質，她基本上是安全的。」頓時，等在一旁的George的家人歡呼起來。
自從上次May出現發燒症狀以來，全家都在祈禱之中，大家都在擔心May是否感染了2069-nCoV。而據目前全球500萬人的流行病學數據，感染2069-nCoV的致死率高達10%，遠高於半個世紀前的2019-nCoV。
高教授在過去的幾個月一直與倫敦、紐約、東京、新德裡、墨爾本和南極中國科學城 (Antarctic Chinese Science Town) 的同事密切交流著全球流行病學數據分析的結果，一個越來越凸顯的事實是，這次2069-nCoV只會感染4號、9號和18號的名為「對氣候變暖不敏感的基因 (Non-sensitive to Global Warming，NGWs) 」。擁有NGWs的人的特質是對全球變暖漠不關心，不會考慮當下的行為對未來造成的後果。據George估測，目前整個人類的10%擁有這類基因，即10億人易感2069-nCoV。
可能受到基因測序結果的鼓舞，May的精神狀態逐漸好轉，她好奇地看著爺爺熟練地操作各種數據分析軟體，問道：「爺爺，我們什麼時候才能去放風箏呀？」
「現在還不行，北京也不過封城2個月，還不知道什麼時候才能解封呢！」
「那什麼時候才能解封啊？我好想去倫敦看機器人秀。呃，但我的同學怎麼都在說這次的病毒是UK病毒啊，我又不想去了，這是真的嗎？爺爺。」
「這次感染2069-nCoV的第一例確實是英國病人，但我們不能說它是'英國病毒'。。像這次病毒，它本來是沉睡在北極圈永久凍土裡的，但40年前北極的夏天就開始是無冰的了，科學家估計以後每個秋天北極都不會有冰。當冰雪融化後，病毒就會甦醒。」
「那為什麼這次那麼嚴重啊？我的美國和英國的小夥伴幾乎快崩潰了，完全受不了這種封鎖與隔離啊！他/她們也非常不喜歡戴口罩。」
「我也是前幾天剛得到消息。這次的病毒是多組分病毒 (multipartite viruses)，一旦侵染人體就會自行分解21個組分，包括蛋白質外殼、RNA鏈，每個組分在不同類型的人體細胞悄無聲息地複製，即不會引起任何不適或染病症狀；當侵染人體細胞達到一半時，21個組分就會迅速在人體內組裝有活性的病毒，發生大面積感染，從輕微的呼吸困難症狀到窒息而死，僅僅需要短短的10小時。」
「爺爺，別講了，我好怕，這怎麼像我們課本裡的一個小說呢，小說難道不都是假的嗎？」
「寶貝，但這次是真的。紐約和新德裡已經成為人間煉獄了……」
George隨手關掉了北京警方發來的紐約和新德裡騷亂和暴動的影像。
「難道真的要死掉1億個人嗎？我們能做些什麼呢？」
高教授陷入了沉思，輕輕嘆氣道：「阻止氣候變暖是防止像2069-nCoV這類病毒從南極和北極甦醒的關鍵。」
「我聽老師說，可以通過基因編輯的方式改變人的基因，這樣人就不會感染了呀；如果我們幫助易感的人去掉NGWs不就可以了嗎？」
George欣慰了看了一眼May，這個小姑娘雖然比他小了80歲，但一點也不缺乏智慧。
「是的，這是個好主意，這是我們科學家商討的一個有效方案，在有效疫苗問世之前的一個可能方案。」高教授不是很堅定地回答道。
「那為什麼不去做呢？」May略顯興奮，快速地眨了眨她的大眼睛。
「修飾人的整個基因組太貴，大多數普通老百姓負擔不起；並且非常耗時，至少要1-3年的時間；而這個病毒的潛伏期是3個月，當6月份在倫敦發現第一例病人時，其實整個人類都已經暴露於'病毒雨'下了。因此我們面臨的困境是，即使修飾好了基因，但也很可能等不到發揮功效的時候。」
「更重要的是，這些擁有NGWs的人壓根不喜歡科學，他/她們往往對技術懷有本能的警戒心。如美國前總統特不靠II就被一種北極諾如病毒 (noroviruses) 嚴重感染過，那是2059年的事情了，那時你還沒有出生。」高教授繼續解釋道。
「那我們能不能在這次疫情結束的時候把NGWs都修改好呢，這樣我們就再也不怕這種病毒了。」May對這個想法信心滿滿，有點興奮地喊道。
「可是，孩子，這個陸地上有100多萬種導致人畜共患疾病的病毒，而在南極和北極則有23萬種未知的病毒正在甦醒。我們修飾好了一個基因，保不準新的病毒會喜歡上另外一個基因；而人類整個基因組也不過有2.3萬個編碼蛋白的基因，難道我們要把人類所有的基因都修改掉？」
高教授對這個瘋狂的想法有點匪夷所思，如果把人的所有的基因都修改掉，那時的人還是人嗎？高教授想起了他的同事黃教授忍痛放歸女兒Yuna到海洋的一幕。
「不行，絕對不行！」George自言自語。「惟一的出路是我們與病毒共存，善待我們的地球，善待地球上的每種生命形態！」這時，George聽到了一個來自遠方的聲音——「地球能滿足人類的需要，但滿足不了人類的貪婪。」
May有點不高興了，貌似由於不能挽救全人類的生命而悶悶不樂。
然而，這次May通過與爺爺的聊天學到了新的知識，認識到氣候行動的重要性。她決定在下個月把挽救人類的想法通過聯合國的雲平臺分享給全世界的同齡小朋友。
嗯，題目就叫「現在行動，拯救人類未來和你最愛的人！」
說明：本小說基於已經發表的經過同行評審的研究論文或其它可信的資料。想了解更多可閱讀以下參考文獻: (1000 Genomes Project Consortium, 2010; Andersen et al., 2020; Van Assche et al., 2019; Baker et al., 2019; Barr et al., 2013; Carroll et al., 2018; Cavicchioli et al., 2019; Chin et al., 2020; Dighe, 2020; Emanuel, 2005; Forster et al., 2020; Gardner & Wordley, 2019; Goldenberg, 2001; Gregory et al., 2019; Guan et al., 2020; Heidt, 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2020; Jones et al., 2008; Kaiser, 2020; Kernbauer et al., 2014; Kim et al., 2019; Kissler et al., 2020; Kurane, 2010; Laanto et al., 2017; Legendre et al., 2014, 2015; Li et al., 2020; Lin et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2020; Mao et al., 2016; Mirsaeidi et al., 2016; Moniruzzaman et al., 2020; Nguyen et al., 2020; Patricola & Wehner, 2018; Post et al., 2019; Reche et al., 2018; Ripple et al., 2017; Roets & Van Hiel, 2011; Sachidanandam et al., 2001; Schulz et al., 2020; Setti et al., 2020; Shu, 2020; Skov et al., 2020; Tisza et al., 2020; VanWormer et al., 2019; Wang & Overland, 2012; Winarski et al., 2019; Wölfel et al., 2020; Wu et al., 2016; G. Zhang et al., 2020; X. Zhang, 2020; Zhao et al., 2020). 其它的「硬科學」知識包括，決定O血型(該血型是萬能供血者(universal donor)，意味著利他精神(altruism))的基因是位於9號染色體上的ABO基因，而9號染色體，與4 (CLOCK)和18號(KATNAL2)染色體上的基因分別表徵人格特點—宜人性和盡責性。
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THE STORY BEHIND: COVID-69
Jianguo Gao reveals the inspiration behind his latest tale.
There are three exciting scientific signs of progress and one teleplay that inspire me in writing this fiction. One is the unprecedented knowledge in human genomes. We got to know such details of our genetics and identified many crucial genes related to physical, physiological and mental health. The second inspiration was that the virologists have discovered mega-viruses habited in the Arctic and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau that we still knew little about them. The third is also inspired by virologists who found multipartite viruses. The fourth inspiration is a marvelous teleplay Westworld released by HBO in which the human’s future shown as a metaphor. The recent COVID-19 pandemic is indeed everyone’s care, but as an ecologist, I am worrying that our future world is extremely vulnerable to unknown virus outbreak which might be intensified by global warming. For example, there are more and more hurricanes under a warming climate which could accelerate global virus cycle.
Jianguo Gao is an ecologist who focuses on plant ecophysiology, ecosystem ecology and plant evolution. After receiving a Ph.D. from CAS (Guangzhou) he moved to Shanghai and Beijing where he turned into an independent research scientist. He is totally a science geek and loves cultural diversity and biodiversity.
本文英文版發表在Nature Research Behavioural and Social Sciences Community上:
https://socialsciences.nature.com/posts/covid-69-science-fiction
作者：高建國
編輯：鄧一雪
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原標題：《COVID-69：50年後的新冠病毒大流行 | 科幻》
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