全球新冠病毒疫苗儲備和獲取的分析
作者：
小柯機器人發布時間：2020/12/18 21:33:22
美國約翰霍普金斯大學布隆伯格公共衛生學院Anthony D So團隊分析了全球可獲取新冠病毒疫苗的儲備。2020年12月15日，該研究發表在《英國醫學雜誌》上。
為了分析主要製造商向受援國家提供的Covid-19疫苗上市前的採購承諾，研究組根據世界衛生組織的covid-19候選疫苗概況草案，以及向美國證券交易委員會披露的公司信息、公司和基金會的新聞稿、政府新聞稿以及媒體報導等進行了一項橫斷面分析。
研究組篩選出2020年11月15日之前公開宣布covid-19疫苗上市前的購買承諾。主要觀察指標為針對covid-19疫苗候選產品的售前購買承諾，每療程的價格，疫苗平臺，研發階段以及採購代理和受贈國。
截至2020年11月15日，多個國家/地區已做出承諾，出售來自13個疫苗生產商的covid-19疫苗，總額達74.8億劑，或37.6億療程。這些疫苗中將有一半以上（51％）流向佔世界人口14％的高收入國家。
美國儲備了8億劑，其患病人數佔全球所有新冠肺炎病例（1102萬例）的五分之一，而日本、澳大利亞和加拿大共儲備了10億多劑，但三國的患病人數還不到全球新冠肺炎病例（45萬例）的1%。
如果這些候選疫苗都能成功進行規模化生產，那麼到2021年底，預計總製造能力將達到59.6億療程。這些製造商提供的多出40％（或23.4億）的疫苗療程可能會留給中低收入國家，若高收入國家選擇擴大儲備規模，則可能會減少；若高收入國家分享他們購買的疫苗，則可能會增加。
這些疫苗的價格相差十倍以上，從每療程6美元到最高每療程74美元不等。COVAX機構是世界衛生組織「使用COVID-19工具（ACT）加速器」的疫苗支柱，除美國和俄羅斯外，全球各國均廣泛參與，目前已獲得至少5億劑或2.5億療程的資金，預計在2021年底前達到20億劑目標的一半，以支持協調全球均可獲得covid-19疫苗。
這項研究概述了高收入國家如何確保將來獲得covid-19疫苗的供應，但世界其他地區的獲取尚不明確。政府和製造商應提高透明度和問責制，為公平分配covid-19疫苗提供急需的保證。
附：英文原文
Title: Reserving coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines for global access: cross sectional analysis
Author: Anthony D So, Joshua Woo
Issue&Volume: 2020/12/15
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the premarket purchase commitments for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) vaccines from leading manufacturers to recipient countries.
Design Cross sectional analysis.
Data sources World Health Organization’s draft landscape of covid-19 candidate vaccines, along with company disclosures to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, company and foundation press releases, government press releases, and media reports.
Eligibility criteria and data analysis Premarket purchase commitments for covid-19 vaccines, publicly announced by 15 November 2020.
Main outcome measures Premarket purchase commitments for covid-19 vaccine candidates and price per course, vaccine platform, and stage of research and development, as well as procurement agent and recipient country.
Results As of 15 November 2020, several countries have made premarket purchase commitments totaling 7.48 billion doses, or 3.76 billion courses, of covid-19 vaccines from 13 vaccine manufacturers. Just over half (51%) of these doses will go to high income countries, which represent 14% of the world’s population. The US has reserved 800 million doses but accounts for a fifth of all covid-19 cases globally (11.02 million cases), whereas Japan, Australia, and Canada have collectively reserved more than one billion doses but do not account for even 1% of current global covid-19 cases globally (0.45 million cases). If these vaccine candidates were all successfully scaled, the total projected manufacturing capacity would be 5.96 billion courses by the end of 2021. Up to 40% (or 2.34 billion) of vaccine courses from these manufacturers might potentially remain for low and middle income countries–less if high income countries exercise scale-up options and more if high income countries share what they have procured. Prices for these vaccines vary by more than 10-fold, from $6.00 (￡4.50; €4.90) per course to as high as $74 per course. With broad country participation apart from the US and Russia, the COVAX Facility—the vaccines pillar of the World Health Organization’s Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator—has secured at least 500 million doses, or 250 million courses, and financing for half of the targeted two billion doses by the end of 2021 in efforts to support globally coordinated access to covid-19 vaccines.
Conclusions This study provides an overview of how high income countries have secured future supplies of covid-19 vaccines but that access for the rest of the world is uncertain. Governments and manufacturers might provide much needed assurances for equitable allocation of covid-19 vaccines through greater transparency and accountability over these arrangements.
DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m4750
Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4750