李根 唐旭 發自 凹非寺 量子位 報導 | 公眾號 QbitAI
3月27日，2018年圖靈獎嘉獎正式揭曉：深度學習三巨頭Yoshua Bengio、Geoffrey Hinton，Yann LeCun一起榮膺計算機領域的最高榮譽。
ACM評委會頒獎詞稱：表彰他們以概念和工程的突破，讓深度神經網絡成為計算關鍵部件。
其中，72歲的Geoffrey Hinton更是眾望所歸，在年盛一年的呼聲之後，終於加冕圖靈獎。
評選揭曉後，量子位獲悉，其實今年全球多位AI領域影響力科學家，就已經提名Geoffrey Hinton且撰寫了推薦信。
按照圖靈獎提名推薦流程，推薦人須與被推薦者曾經共事。
所以包括Google研究負責人Jeff Dean、創新工場董事長李開復、微軟研究院掌舵者Eric Horvitz，以及此次一同獲獎的Yann LeCun等，都因曾經共事而提名了Geoffery Hinton。
現在，我們獲得授權，披露李開復向ACM圖靈獎評選委員會提名Geoff Hinton的推薦信。
需要說明的是，原件為英文，量子位進行了編譯。
但強烈推薦學有餘力的盆友直接讀英文原文(後附)，一方面是因為李開復圍繞學術、產業和教育等三大方面，對Geoffrey Hinton進行功績介紹，字裡行間也不乏一些鮮為人知的小故事，還有溢於言表的欽佩和讚美。
另一方面，也確實鍛鍊英文的好機會。
OK，Here we go~
李開復推薦信（量子位編譯版）
尊敬的ACM圖靈獎評選委員會：
我謹以此文表達個人最強烈的推薦和支持，提名Geoff Hinton為本年度的圖靈獎候選人。這是人工智慧的時代，而在人工智慧領域，沒人能比Geoff更有資格獲得這份嘉獎。
我現在是創新工場董事長及CEO，並曾作為高管任職於蘋果、SGI、微軟和谷歌。我曾是卡內基梅隆大學的助理教授，同時在這所大學獲得了博士學位。
也正是在CMU，1983年，我作為一名博士生結識了Geoff：修讀了他的神經網絡課程；並和他的研究團隊一起，嘗試將神經網絡應用於語音識別；我還在他的指導下完成了自己的輔修課程論文（關於將貝葉斯學習應用於博弈遊戲），我的博士論文（用機器學習方法進行語音識別），也曾向Geoff和他的團隊尋求過建議。
△Hinton和李開復2017年會面，量子位配圖
雖然Geoff並非我的博士生導師，但他對於我博士論文的影響卻十分巨大。他的學生Peter Brown（統計機器翻譯的共同發明人，如今文藝復興科技的CEO）當時是我的老師，也正是他教會了我如何把不同種類的機器學習算法應用於語音識別，為我的博士論文打下了基礎。
其後1988年，我的博士論文實現了當時最好的語音識別模型，也促使語音識別領域，將重心從專家系統方法轉移到機器學習方法。鑑於Geoff的才華、堅韌和慷慨，如果我能從Geoff和Peter身上受益如此之多，想必還有成千上萬的受益者跟我一樣。
Geoff對於AI領域的貢獻是巨大、無可比擬的。在我最近出版的暢銷書 AI Supowerpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order（中文名《AI·未來》）中，以通俗的說法描述了Geoff對於AI領域的貢獻：
曾經，人工神經網絡能做的事非常有限。複雜問題若要得出準確的結果，必須構建很多層的人工神經元，但神經元層數增加後，研究人員當時還未找到針對新增神經元有效的訓練方法。在21世紀頭10年的中期，深度學習這項重大的技術性突破終於到來，知名研究人員傑弗裡·辛頓找到了有效訓練人工神經網絡中新增神經元層的方法。這就像是給舊的神經網絡打了一針興奮劑，使它們的能力倍增，可以執行更多、更複雜的工作，例如語音及物體識別。性能大增的人工神經網絡——現在有了新的名字「深度學習」——開始把舊的系統遠遠甩在身後。多年來對神經網絡根深蒂固的成見讓人工智慧的許多研究人員忽略了這個已經取得出色成果的「邊緣群體」，但2012年傑弗裡·辛頓的團隊在一場國際計算機視覺競賽中的勝出[1]，讓人工神經網絡和深度學習重新回到聚光燈下。在邊緣地帶煎熬了數十年後，以深度學習的形式再次回到公眾視野中的神經網絡法不僅成功地讓人工智慧回暖，也第一次把人工智慧真正地應用在現實世界中。研究人員、未來學家、科技公司CEO都開始討論人工智慧的巨大潛力：識別人類語言、翻譯文件、識別圖像、預測消費者行為、辨別欺詐行為、批准貸款、幫助機器人「看」，甚至開車。
如果就學術成果而言，Geoff的引用超過25萬次，其中一半以上來自於過去5年；他的H指數是驚人的142；他是波茨曼機以及通過梯度下降法實現反向傳播（前者與Terry Sejnowski共同發布於1983年，後者則在1986年與David Rumelhart共同發布於《自然》雜誌）兩項開創性工作的共同發明人，這些工作引入了神經網絡中隱藏層的思想，以及一種用於對其附屬參數進行訓練的優美、易於計算的方法。
隱藏層讓軟體從「人類控制「（如專家系統）下得到解放，而反向傳播則讓非線性組合系統發現突出特徵成為可能，以一種更接近於目標而非人類驅動的方式。
然而，這些思想對於其所處時代而言，當時過於超前。因為當時並沒有足夠的數據和算力，能讓這些理論上的方法解決實際生活中的問題，或是在競爭中壓倒其他方法。
於是在20世紀80年代初期，該領域被專家系統所統治，直到80年代末期，專家系統因過於脆弱和難以擴展成為歷史。
不過替代專家系統的也並非Geoff提出的構想（那時還太早），而是妥協於少量數據和算力的簡化版本的神經網絡。
我的博士論文（使用了隱馬爾科夫模型）討論的就是其中的一種。這些簡化過的方法確實能在一部分應用上作出貢獻，但如同專家系統一樣，它們並不能在那些最難解決的問題上進行擴展，如下圍棋、人類水平的語音和視覺。
然而時來運轉，從1985年到2015年，全球數據量和算力發生了巨大的增長。
舉例來說，我在1988年的博士論文使用了當時最大的語音資料庫，但它也只有100MB的大小。
而今天，最好的語音識別系統要在100TB的數據上進行訓練——這是一百萬倍的提升。有了數據上如此巨大的提升作為支持，Geoff的思想最終閃耀了起來——他的方法能將層的數量由1增加到1000，而數據量和模型複雜度的提升會使得深度學習系統持續進步。
事後再看這些問題，顯得異常容易。但在當時，現實卻是非常殘酷的。20世紀90年代對於像Geoff一樣的神經網絡研究者而言，是最黑暗的時刻。
Geoff早期的理論工作創造出了智能的火花，但數據和算力的匱乏卻阻礙了這些深度學習系統展示出更優秀的性能。隨著科研經費消耗殆盡，許多神經網絡研究者將自己的工作轉移到了其他領域。然而，面對黯淡而又浮躁的科研資助環境，Geoff依然作為少數研究者（其他關鍵性研究者包括Yann LeCun和Yoshua Bengio）堅持了下來，不懈地將神經網絡方法繼續向前推進。
他搬到了加拿大，根據受限的經費環境調整了團隊，而後繼續努力將科學的邊界向前拓展。
Geoff在接下來的30年中持續地為神經網絡方法做著貢獻，其中包括多專家模型、亥姆霍茲機、神經動畫生成系統、概率推理模型、隨機領域嵌入、鄰域組件分析、t-SNE，以及諸多創新思想和研究。
鮮有某項技術可以徹底顛覆多個領域的研究，而深度學習就是其中之一。從2010年到2016年，本質上講，整個感知領域——語音識別、圖像識別、計算機視覺都轉移到了深度學習的路徑上，就是因為Geoff和他的同事們證明了——對於感知而言，深度學習就是最佳也最能普及的方法。
在整個人工智慧領域，人類的感知能力（聽、看和理解）被視作人類獨有的天賦，但對於AI而言，這是一個巨大挑戰。值得一提的是，還有一項巨大的挑戰是下圍棋，已經被Deepmind開發的AlphaGo，同樣使用深度學習方法攻克了。當時震驚了整個世界，也成了「AI革命」的催化劑。
現在回顧，Geoff的團隊是如此顛覆計算機視覺研究的：2012年，他的團隊構建了一個基於神經網絡的系統，在ImageNet 1000個類的物體識別競賽中將錯誤率一下降低了40%。
在此之前，計算機視覺領域的研究社群已經習慣了每年一小部分的增量提升，而Geoff團隊的成績震驚了整個社群——人們未曾想像過，一個「局外人」會以一種「非傳統方法」以如此大的優勢贏下競賽。
如果說反向傳播是Geoff最重要的理論貢獻，那麼其團隊在ImageNet競賽中取得的成果則是Geoff最為人認可的貢獻。那屆ImageNet競賽結果所掀起的微波，最終成為了深度學習大潮中的滔天巨浪。
深度學習的浪潮如今也正在改變每一個行業。舉例來說，作為一名身處中國的投資人，我本人也品嘗過這股春風帶來的甘霖：Geoff在2012年發表的論文以及當年ImageNet上的成果，為4家中國的計算機視覺公司帶來了靈感，而現在他們的總估值超過120億美元。但請記住，這還只是Geoff的工作在一個國家、一個小小的領域內帶來的成果。
此外，Geoff的工作還使得深度學習顛覆了語音識別領域（也是我博士時期的研究方向），幫助當時加盟百度的吳恩達，在2015年使得機器識別的準確度超越人類。
從更廣闊的視角上看，世界上的每一家科技巨頭（谷歌、微軟、IBM、Facebook、亞馬遜、百度、騰訊和阿里巴巴）都為深度學習打造了自己的平臺，甚至將自己重新標榜為「AI公司」；而在風投領域，我們則見證了深度學習驅動下大批獨角獸公司的出現（僅在中國就有超過20家）。
同時，由於深度學習需要的強大算力無法從傳統的CPU中獲得，為了負載深度學習所需的工作量，GPU開始被大規模使用，並由此引發了英偉達的崛起以及半導體工業的復活。
最為重要的是，我們的生活已經發生了深刻的變化：從搜尋引擎，到社交網絡再到電子商務，從無人商店到無人汽車，從金融到醫療，幾乎所有能想像到的領域，都被深度學習的力量所重塑，或是顛覆。
在任何具有充足數據的領域，深度學習在用戶體驗、用戶粘性、營收和利潤方面都帶來了極大的提升。深度學習背後的核心思想（始於反向傳播）——一個目標函數可以被用來使商業指標最大化——已經對所有行業造成了深刻的影響，並幫助那些擁有數據、擁抱機器學習的公司獲得了難以置信的利潤。
總的說來，人工智慧可以說是當今我們能夠成熟應用的技術中，最為令人興奮的一種。普華永道和麥肯錫預計，在2030年以前，AI會給全球GDP帶來12到16萬億美元的增長。
而AI領域最重要的進展，以及AI技術的成熟度被堅信的首要原因，就是Geoff在深度學習方面的工作成果。
誠然，每一位圖靈獎的獲獎者都對計算機科學領域有著極其重大的影響，但極少數能像Geoff一樣，改變了整個世界。
在變革者的角色之外，Geoff還是一位真正的思想領袖。雖然他總是言辭溫和，他卻是一位真正塑造並重塑整個研究社群的精神領袖。
他不知疲倦地教誨，不只是對他的學生，更是對這個世界。
正如他1986年創辦聯結主義學院時，親自與在計算機視覺和語音處理領域的人們去進行溝通，說服他們去理解並擁抱機器學習。然而，當2018年所有的工作都獲得了成功，整個世界都投入了深度學習的懷抱之時，他還繼續指出一條全新的道路。
在行業紛紛向深度學習靠攏，大公司們不斷收集更多的數據並開始引領深度學習的「工業化」之時，他卻號召人們向前一步，去創造「下一個深度學習」。換而言之，解決AI根本問題的一種全新方法，幫助機器更接近真正的人類智慧。
他在思想上的領袖魅力來源於他畢生的願景，以及對於更好地去理解人類認知能力的追尋。儘管深度學習是一項正在改變世界的重大突破，他卻僅僅將其視為實現自己長期願景路途中的一塊踏腳石。他最近在膠囊網絡方面的新工作，也正再一次讓研究者們重新審視自身在Geoff願景中的角色和責任。
我堅信，Geoff就是今天的人工智慧領域內最重要的人物，沒有之一。
他對於學界和業界的貢獻同樣地突出。他不僅是一位優秀的、引領性的學者，亦是一位孜孜以求、慷慨、堅韌、優雅、有原則的紳士。他是所有年輕計算機科學家的楷模。他的工作大大超越了神經網絡和機器學習的範疇，極大地影響了計算機視覺、語音及信號處理、統計學、認知科學以及神經科學。
我想不出其他任何人比他更有資格獲得圖靈獎，並在此敦促評選委員會在今年選擇Geoff作為獲獎人。
英文原件內容
Dear ACM Turing Award Committee Members:
I am writing to give my strongest recommendation to support Geoff Hinton’s nomination for Turing Award. This is the decade of Artificial Intelligence, and there is no one more qualified than Geoff in AI.
I am the Chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures, and have previously held executive positions at Apple, Microsoft, SGI, and Google. I was an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon, and also received my Ph.D. there. I got to know Geoff at Carnegie Mellon, when I entered as a Ph.D. student in 1983. I took classes on neural networks from him, worked with his research team on applying neural networks to speech recognition, and was supervised by him for my minor thesis (on applying Bayesian learning to game-playing), and consulted him and his team on my Ph.D. thesis (machine learning approach to speech recognition).
While Geoff was not my Ph.D. advisor, his impact on my Ph.D. thesis was tremendous. His student Peter Brown (co-inventor of statistical machine translation, now CEO of Renaissance Technologies) was my mentor, and taught me how to apply various types of machine learning algorithms to speech recognition. This was a primary reason that helped my Ph.D. thesis to become the best-performing speech recognizer in 1988, which helped shift the speech recognition field from expert-systems approach to machine-learning approach. If I have benefited so much from Geoff and Peter, there must be thousands of other beneficiaries, given Geoff’s brilliance, persistence, and generosity.
Geoff’s contributions to AI are immense and incomparable. In my recent best-selling book AI Supowerpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, I described Geoff’s contribution as follows, in layman’s language:
Deep learning’s big technical break finally arrived in the mid-2000s, when leading researcher Geoffrey Hinton discovered a way to efficiently train those new layers in neural networks. The result was like giving steroids to the old neural networks, multiplying their power to perform tasks such as speech and object recognition.
Soon, these juiced-up neural networks—now rebranded as 「deep learning」—could outperform older models at a variety of tasks. But years of ingrained prejudice against the neural networks approach led many AI researchers to overlook this 「fringe」 group that claimed outstanding results. The turning point came in 2012, when a neural network built by Hinton’s team demolished the competition in an international computer vision contest.
In the twelve years since Geoffrey Hinton and his colleagues』 landmark paper on deep learning, I haven’t seen anything that represents a similar sea change in machine intelligence.
In terms of academic accomplishments, Geoff has more than 250,000 citations, with more than half in the last five years. He has an astoundingly high H-index of 142. He was the co-inventor of the seminal work on Boltzmann Machines and backpropagation using gradient descent (published in 1983 with Terry Sejnowski, and the Nature paper with David Rumelhart in 1986). This work introduced the idea of hidden layers in neural networks, along with a mathematically elegant and computational tractable way to train their affiliated parameters. Hidden layers freed the software from 「human control」 (such as expert systems) and back propagation allowed non-linear combination to essentially discover prominent features (in a more goal-directed way than humans) in the process. However, it turned out that these ideas were before their time, as there were not enough data or computing power to enable these theoretical approaches to solve real-world problems or beat other approaches in competitions. The early-1980’s were dominated by expert systems, which became discredited in by late-1980’s when they were proven to be brittle and unscalable. What displaced expert systems was not Geoff’s proposals (which were too early), but simplified versions of neural networks which were compromised to work with less data and computation. My Ph.D. thesis (using hidden Markov models) was among them, and these simplified approaches were able to make some contributions with some applications, but like expert systems, they were not able to scale to the hardest problems (such as playing Go, human-level speech or vision).
From 1985 to 2015, the amount of data and computation increased tremendously. For example, my 1988 Ph.D. thesis used the largest speech database at the time, which was only 100 MB. Today, the best speech recognition systems are trained on 100 TB of data – a million-fold increase. And with that much increase in data size, Geoff’s approach (later re-branded deep learning) finally shined, as it could increase the number of layers from one to thousands, and deep learning systems continued to improve as the data size and the complexity of the model increased.
This is easy to see in hind sight. But at the time, the reality was quite cruel. The 1990s were the darkest hours for neural network researchers like Geoff. Geoff’s earlier theoretical work created intellectual spark, but the lack of data and computation prevented these deep learning systems from demonstrating superior performance. Funding dried up, and many neural network researchers moved away to other areas. But Geoff was among the few researchers (other key researchers include Yann LeCun and Yoshua Bengio) who persisted on pushing forward the neural network approach, despite a frosty and fickle environment for funding. He moved to Canada, adjusted his group to a smaller funding environment, and continued to push the frontier.
His contribution to the neural network approach continued in the next 30 years, including the mixture of experts model, the Helmholtz machine, the neural-animator system, probabilistic inference, stochastic neighbor embedding and neighborhood component analysis, t-SNE, and many other innovative ideas.
Very few technologies have disrupted multiple areas of research completely, but deep learning did. From 2010 to 2016, essentially the entire field of perception – speech recognition, image recognition, computer vision, switched to deep learning, as Geoff and his colleagues proved deep learning to be the best and most generalizable approach for perception. In the entire fiend of Artificial Intelligence, human perception (to hear, see, and understand) was considered one of the aspects that set the humans apart and a grand challenge for AI (incidentally, playing Go was another, which was conquered by Deepmind’s AlphaGo, which also used deep learning during the matches which shocked the world, and was another catalyst for the 「AI revolution」).
Here is how Geoff’s team disrupted computer vision research, In 2012, his team built a neural-network based system that cut the error rate by 40% on ImageNet’s 1000-object recognition task and competition. The computer vision community was accustomed to incremental improvements annually. Geoff’s team’s results shocked that community, as a relative 「outsider」 using an 「unconventional approach」 won by such a large margin. If backpropagation was Geoff’s most important theoretical contribution, his team’s work on the ImageNet competition was Geoff’s most recognized contribution. That ImageNet result started the first ripple that ultimately became the deep learning tidal wave.
The deep learning tidal wave (the most central part of the 「AI revolution」) is now changing every industry. As an example, as a venture capitalist in China, I was a part of a 「tiny」 side effect: Geoff’s 2012 paper and ImageNet result inspired four computer vision companies in China, and today they are collectively worth about $12 billion. Keep in mind, this was just one small field in one country based on one of Geoff’s result. Geoff’s result also led to deep learning disrupting speech recognition (the area of my Ph.D. work), resulting in super-human accuracy in 2015 by Baidu’s Andrew Ng (recruited to Baidu after Geoff joined Google part-time). And much more broadly, every technology monolith (Google, Microsoft, IBM, Facebook, Amazon, Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba) built its platform for deep learning, and re-branding themselves as 「AI companies」. And in venture capital, we saw the emergence of many unicorns (in China alone there are over twenty) powered by deep learning. Also, deep learning required much compute power that traditional CPUs could not handle, which led to the use of GPUs, the rise of Nvidia and the re-emergence of semiconductors to handle deep learning work-load. Most importantly, our lives have changed profoundly – from search engines to social networks to e-commerce, from autonomous stores to autonomous vehicles, from finance to healthcare, almost every imaginable domain is either being re-invented or disrupted by the power of machine learning. In any domain with sufficient data, deep learning has led to large improvements in user satisfaction, user retention, revenue, and profit. The central idea behind deep learning (and originally from backpropagation) that an objective function could be used to maximize business metrics has had profound impact on all businesses, and helped the companies that have data and embraced machine learning to become incredibly profitable.
In aggregate, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is arguably the most exciting technology ripe for applications today. PWC and McKinsey predicted that AI would add $12-16 trillion to the global GDP by 2030. The most important advance and the primary reason that AI is believed to have matured is Geoff’s work on deep learning. While every Turing Award recipient has made seminal impact to Computer Science, few have changed the world as Geoff is doing.
Beyond the role of an innovator, Geoff was also a true thought leader. While he is soft-spoken, he is a spiritual leader who really shapes and reshapes the overall research community. He was a tireless in teaching not only his students but the world. For example, he started the Connectionist School in 1986. He personally connected to and persuaded people in computer vision and speech processing to understand and embrace deep learning. Yet, after all that work succeeded, and the world was won over by deep learning in 2018, he set a new direction. Because industry has rallied around deep learning, and large companies were gathering more data and leading the 「industrialization」 of deep learning, he made an exhortation to move on and focus on inventing 「the next deep learning」, or fundamentally new approach to AI problems that could move closer to true human intelligence.
His thought leadership was grounded in his life-long vision and quest to better understand human cognition. While deep learning is a breakthrough that is changing the world, he sees it as only a stepping stone towards the realization of his long-term vision. To set another example, his new work on capsule leaning is again causing researchers to rethink their role and responsibilities in Geoff’s vision.
I believe Geoff is the single most important figure in the field of Artificial Intelligence today. His contributions to academia and industry are equally outstanding. He is not only a brilliant and inspirational scholar, but also an inquisitive, generous, persistent, decent, and principled gentleman, who is a role model for any aspiring young computer scientist. His work went well beyond neural networks and machine learning, and has greatly impacted computer vision, speech and signal processing, statistics, cognitive science, and neural science. I cannot think of anyone else more deserving of the Turing Award, and urge the committee to select Geoff as the recipient this year.
Sincerely,
Kai-Fu Lee, Ph.D.
Chairman & CEO, Sinovation Ventures
Fellow, IEEE
Honorary Ph.D., Carnegie Mellon University
Honorary Ph.D., City University of Hong Kong